[Book Spoilers] An alternative theory on a 'Young Griff' stand-in

[Manderly with a Planderly]

Longtime lurker here; I figure it’s time to start contributing to the discussion with my own tinfoil for next season. In this post, I’m going to float the theory that, in the show, Obara is secretly Rhaenys.

Wait, what?

So, a big theory floating around is that, for the show, Trystane = (f?)Aegon. This nicely allows a condensation of characters and streamlining of Tyrion’s plot without cutting out what seems, in the book, to be a super-important character. But it rubs me the wrong way, for a couple reasons.

1. It leaves Doran without a legitimate heir. This may just be an unfortunate turn of events, but narratively it puts Doran in an odd position. Sure, Doran could legitimize the eldest of the Sand Snakes, Obara, but this will inevitably set up an awkward power struggle, and the impending death of his line majorly changes his character motivations.
   
2. It leaves us without a Quentyn stand-in (or, if Trystane goes to Mereen to get roasted, a proper Aegon stand-in), as well as a very flawed Arianne stand-in (Ellaria may be the Queenmaker but she doesn’t have the same subverted-inheritance motives nor the ability to marry into the throne).
   
3. It robs us of one of the nice features of Aegon (and parallels with Aegon V) – he was raised among the smallfolk while still receiving top-level training, which Varys cites as a reason for supporting Aegon in his monologuing to Kevan at the end of ADWD. Trystane was born in luxury like Tommen.
   

None of that is decisive, of course, but it got me thinking that there might be a legitimate alternative Aegon stand-in. Who could that be? Episode and casting details seem to suggest he won’t be popping up in Essos. And Dorne doesn’t have any other similarly-aged males.

Run the World (Girls)

But then, who says the stand-in has to be male? Aegon had a sister, Rhaenys, who could also make a claim to the Iron Throne! And we’ve got plenty of female characters of age in Dorne, via the Sand Snakes. Among them, Obara is the most likely candidate because:

• Obara is played by Keisha Castle-Hughes, who already has an Oscar nomination for her wonderful turn in Whale Rider; it would make sense to have such a great actress play a central role like Rhaenys.
  
• On the GoT wiki, Obara’s parentage is listed as a peasant, while Nymeria is highborn. Switcheroo would be much easier for one of peasant stock. Tyene’s parents aren’t listed on the GoT wiki (and I’m open to the suggestion that Tyene = Rhaenys instead, esp. b/c age fits better), but on the Wikipedia characters page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Game_of_Thrones_characters - criminally, not sourced), Tyene is listed as Ellaria’s child – again, highborn, and switcheroo would’ve been difficult (and it’s very doubtful Ellaria could be in on this whole thing).
  

So why should we buy Obara = Rhaenys over Trystane = Aegon?

1. It leaves Trystane as Doran’s legitimate heir, making Dornish inheritance less confusing and uncertain.
   
2. It allows Trystane to stand in for Quentyn and sail off for Meereen at the end of the season (though if he dies, this admittedly negates the advantage of (1)…). Alternatively, Trystane could be matched to marry Obara, such that he more closely matches Arianne’s plotline than Ellaria could.
   
3. Obara, as a peasant bastard, would not at least initially have been raised luxuriously, giving her the hard-knocks experience that makes Aegon appealing. However, she still would have been retrieved at an appropriate age and been given training by her supposed half-siblings and father (as evidenced by her martial prowess).
   
4. Relatedly, Obara is a badass and would make a much cooler contender for the throne than Trystane.
   
5. It provides further justification for the significantly expanded Sand Snake role in the show.
   

Flaws

But this theory does admittedly have its downsides. I’ll try to defuse two of them:

Objection 1: Varys’s masterplan of Aegon marrying Dany won’t work under this scenario; supporting both Rhaenys and Dany would just seem to be a recipe for a Dance of Dragons.

Reply: Maybe, but the plan of Rhaenys taking the throne, with Dany as cooperative support, could still work if Varys plays his cards right – and Aegon v Dany looks like it’ll happen anyway in the books. Plus, for those who have seen the first episode – does Varys come out and name Dany as the ‘her’ who should be supported, per the trailer? And even if he does, he could well be lying to Tyrion just as Illyrio lies to him in the books. Alternatively (and I prefer this), in the show, Varys could be unaware of Rhaenys switcheroo completely – he’s always been pushing for Viserys/Dany instead, and is unaware of Doran’s machinations. Another alternative – he could be hedging his bets, seeing which of Dany or Rhaenys is able to better get their act together.

Objection 2: Oberyn should’ve known Rhaenys was alive, given it’s his own bastard daughter that I’m claiming was swapped. But his delirious vengeance over her death in the Mountain v. Viper duel did *not* look like it could’ve been faked for show (and it would really lessen the impact of that scene if it were).

Reply: While it would be easier for Doran to just claim the swapped Aegon as his own (esp. given absentee wife), a Rhaenys swap could still work. Remember, Obara was allegedly born to peasant stock – it would’ve been relatively easy for one of Doran’s agents to kidnap the child/bribe the parents into silence. Or better, the peasant lady never actually had a child by Oberyn, and was simply paid to say it was Oberyn’s when Doran’s agents delivered the child to a known paramour of Oberyn’s.

There are probably other flaws – but maybe there are other upsides to O=R than I’ve come up with. Anyway, I thought I’d just put this theory out there as a plausible alternative to T=A. And we’ll find out which (if either) is right in like two months or less anyway…

[nara]

Wow, this is well thought out. They should hire you on GOT.

I like either option because I'm worried that they will run out of material in Season 6 and get too far ahead of GRRM. Sending Trystane to Essos a la Quentyn would be an interesting plot for that season. I thought the actor looked too young to be (F)Aegon (who would have to be 21-22 at least), but I could be wrong (or it could just be the picture I saw). I also agree that having Oberyn know that one of the children survived would take away from his great (though ill-fated) display at the trial. So I'm torn.

This is far less likely, but is there any chance that Loras will turn up in Essos with an offer to marry Dany and bring the might of Highgarden to her? It would make more sense if they had kept WIllas and Garlan. However, if Loras becomes dragonfood, an as yet unmentioned younger brother could then be produced and be in line for Highgarden, if necessary.

[ni2tre]

Honestly, I like this one just as much as TrAegon. In fact I would prefer many things over Varys supporting Dany from the beginning.

[Benjaario Starkharis]

Trystane is Aegon and they will reveal this in Episode 6. I say this based on my own observations.

I'm with you. Even if he's not Aegon, I still think he'll try to scheme his way to the throne through Myrcella. The Dornish arc has to create something more important than just Doran revealing his plans to support Dany, otherwise it'd be kinda pointless because it would not move the plot forward.

[YoungGriff89]

In the book it was made clear Aegon resembled Rhaegar more than Elia but in the show not so much. It wouldn't really be too out of character for Doran to have R/ Aegon and raise him since Doran didn't send Oberyn to KL to get himself killed on a lie. He volunteered to be Tyrion's champion and got himself killed, after all that is what Doran said his view of the situation was in I think the first Areo Hotah chapter in AFFC. Having the true son of Elia and Rhaegar could have also helped in his decision not to take revenge on the Lannisters sooner.

[Chilli]

Wouldn't that be a bit too much: Rhaegar's 2 sons being raised in secret by their uncles?

[FireAndBlood.]

1. It leaves Doran without a legitimate heir. This may just be an unfortunate turn of events, but narratively it puts Doran in an odd position. Sure, Doran could legitimize the eldest of the Sand Snakes, Obara, but this will inevitably set up an awkward power struggle, and the impending death of his line majorly changes his character motivations.

If Trystane was Aegon he would still be Doran's legitimate heir through Elia.

[shastada]

I'm in favor of anything that still gives us Aegon in the show. That said it does seem like they may have condensed a bit too much if that is the case. I don't like the theory that they swapped both of the children though. That seems a bridge too far...

Also Varys would undoubtedly know about this since it's his scheme in the book, or will they make it so he doesn't know? Wouldn't make him a very good master of whisperers if he doesn't know. Then he would know Tristane is Aegon and have known since Tyrion sent Mycella to Dorne what was happening there. He would not want that union especially by then he was aware of the dragons and would undoubtedly want to favor a Aegon/Dany union instead.