Who rules in the capital?

[Stannis broatheon]

The WWs did come South in the Long Night.

The people of Westeros have never had a winter as bad as the one they will experience. Fleeing as far South "as south goes" only makes sense.

First time for everything.

We will see i guess, but Dorne seems to be on the best position against a WW invasion.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

A clusterfuck. Mostly Cersei, with some bits of Tyrell in between.

 

The WWs did come South in the Long Night.

The people of Westeros have never had a winter as bad as the one they will experience. Fleeing as far South "as south goes" only makes sense.

First time for everything.

Appears to make sense. But it is simply not viable. Neither the transportation available nor the infrastructure in Dorne would cope with anything beyond 0.0x percent of the population - meaning 99.9y would starve or otherwise die on the way.

[falcotron]

Cersei bringing herself into conflict with Mace is one thing, with Randal Tarly, quite another.

Someone has to go deal with Aegon. Someone with a big, mostly-unused army and a good commander. Even without reading the spoiler chapters, surely you can guess who that will be. And then you've got Mace, with most of his army gone, his two major supporters gone (Paxter already left), and his only other useful advisor gone (so did Olenna).

But of course Cersei also has no army. She has a little more support, with Qyburn and three KG allies (counting Robert Strong). But she has no useful advisors left but Qyburn, and she's crazy.

So, expecting either one to successfully take full advantage of the other's weakness (without being outmaneuvered by the High Sparrow) is, I think, expecting too much from both of them.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Mace Tyrell.

 

he has the majority of the small council. Only Harys Swyft remains to oppose him, and Swyft is a coward.

 

 

He will be ruling the next morning when the bodies are found.

 

At some point Cersei will be back in power, but there is room for a Tyrell regime in the meantime. The narrative demands, IMHO, that the tyrells reach the top (including filling the small council with friends and family (specifically Gormon and Garth)) before crumbling down hard.

[Sage of Westeros]

It will be a tedious power struggle between Mace as hand and Cersei as Queen Regent, but in the end Cersei will most likely win (as Varys wants her too) or they will rule in a way similar to her and Tyrion.

[TheReal_Rebel]

A clusterfuck. Mostly Cersei, with some bits of Tyrell in between.
 

Appears to make sense. But it is simply not viable. Neither the transportation available nor the infrastructure in Dorne would cope with anything beyond 0.0x percent of the population - meaning 99.9y would starve or otherwise die on the way.

Yet, somehow the people of the Rhoyne made it to Dorne and Westerosi cannot?

There will be a lot of death along the way, no doubt.

The point is, as I see it, we have a situation where the social order is breaking down, people will be fleeing as Winter marches south, Aegon attacks, Cersei goes mad and no one is truly in charge. At least not for very long.

Maybe Dorne invades KL. Maybe Baelish makes his move toward's IT. But he's no fool, he's going to do whatever protects his own skin. Also Euron has to be dealt with. Tarly will be occupied or have to split his forces.

Sitting on IT is a lose, lose as the situation in Westeros continues to devolve in the Winds of Winter, as I see it.

I really don't see any kind of order or authority being restored until Daenerys invades.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yet, somehow the people of the Rhoyne made it to Dorne and Westerosi cannot?

The people of the Rhoyne who mattered, as far as the historians saw it. Read: the nobles. Not the entire population. Not even one percent of it.

 

But that's something of a sidetrack, if you are interested in a more in-depth discussion we should take that to a different thread.

[mediterraneo]

Yet, somehow the people of the Rhoyne made it to Dorne and Westerosi cannot?

...

 

Hey, Nymeria and the 10.000 ships were not traveling in winter and without a centralized organization effort. And they had 10.000 ships, and not trying to carry with them food for years.

It was definitely easier.

And I'm now going to take a look to the map, to see how much shorter it is from the Rhoyne to Dorne than from Bear's Island.
I may be wrong on this.

 

Also, nobody is saying that no one is going to make it to as south as he wanted. Just that it would be a mess.

[mediterraneo]

On the main topic, I cannot remember what happened when Cersei was captive.

Wasn't Kevan Regent and Ward of the Realm?

Was Cersei able to talk with Tommen?

Who was holding him, Kevan? Or Mance and the Small Council? If it was Kevan, with the Master of Whispers on her side, Cersei could be able to secure the boy for her, and go on trying to start a civil war against her only allies.

I really wish to the boy to be Mace's captive, in his best interest.

Myself, having Mace reputation for lackwith and slow, I would clearly tell Cersei that no army of mines would march against the "pretender" "Aegon" until the High Sparrow head is on a pike (by the queen's order and against my will) and Margaery exculped of all of her accusations by the Faith and the King.
And while we are at it, challenge her to pull a move like Aerys with Rickard on me, if she dared.