On Asshai, Rivers, and Oceans

[DominusNovus]

What do you do when you're stuck at home too sick to work?  You pour over this forum, if you're me, apparently.  So, I've been reading LmL's theories about everything, I've been staring at Lands of Ice and Fire maps, and I've been pouring over the World of Ice and Fire.  And I've got some ideas that I wanted to share:

 

Asshai currently has a small population.  However, it was likely once much more populous, as the World of Ice and Fire states that it is the geographical size of King's Landing, Oldtown, Volantis, and Qarth combined.  Of these, we know that King's Landing and Oldtown are of comparable size, and that Volantis and Qarth are far larger.  We also know that King's Landing has around 500,000 people.  Lets do some basic arithmetic.  For the sake of setting a lower limit, lets just assume that all 4 cities have 500,000 people, just as King's Landing does (a fair estimate for Oldtown, but not the others).  Lets also assume that population scales up linearly with geographical size.  That puts the lower end of the population of Asshai at a staggering 2 million people.  Now, since Volantis and Qarth are supposed to be much larger than King's Landing, lets assume they're both around 1 million people (thats where pre-industrial metropolises tended to max out, such as Rome and Constantinople).  That puts a higher estimate at even more staggering 3 million people.

 

Of course, we should also consider that population does not scale with the geographical footprint.  This could mean either that Asshai isn't as dense as those cities (certainly reasonable if there's many palaces, temples, and public buildings), or that its denser (this would require more advanced architecture than anywhere in the books indicates).  However, while its certainly possible that Asshai is just chock full of non-residential buildings, it is unlikely that it is so full of them to make a major dent in its possible population (palaces and temples need places for the staff to live, after all).  So, somewhere in the range of 2-3 million people seems a fair estimate.  In one gigantic, pre-industrial city.  Shall I mention the word 'staggering' again?  For context, lets look at Rome and Constantinople again (both 1 million at their height).  In the case of those cities, they were entirely dependent on grain from Egypt to keep the population fed (Rome also relied on North Africa, and Constantinople on what is now modern Ukraine, to lesser extents).  When those sources of grain were lost, the populations plummeted.  Now, we're talking a cit.y at least twice as big as either of those cities.  How in the world were they all fed?

 

LmL does a pretty good job arguing that Asshai was once the capital of the Golden Empire of the Dawn.  But even then, where would they get the food (we will set aside any magical sources)?  Lets pull out our maps and scour them for options.  There are some decently sized rivers (rivers are usually a great sign of fertility, for obvious reasons) north of Asshai, in Yi Ti, that could certainly help.  In particular, there is a river that empties out around present-day Jinqi, that is fed by the large Bleeding Sea (named for red algae)  This is a start.  Anywhere east of the Bone Mountains, preferably, if LmL's idenfitifcation of Asshai as the GEotD's capital is correct.  All we find are the Shrinking Sea and the Great Sand Sea.  Both of which used to be much wetter in ancient times.  The Shrinking Sea's name alone alludes to that.  And the Great Sand Sea's dessication is known as the Dry Times in the Patrimony of Hyrkoon, so it clearly once was an actual sea.  Of course, there's no proof that either sea had any outflowing rivers (which would help in spreading all that fertility around), but we do get a hint in that one city between Qarth and Yin, Asabhad, looks to have a Hyrkoonian name.  As the Patrimony of Hyrkoon flourished along the shores of what is now the Great Sand Sea, its reasonable to posit that their influence followed its river south to the Jade Sea.  Indeed, the river that flows by Asabhad does follow a course that could link it up to the sea fairly nicely, if you do some imagining of what the region looked like in the past.

 

Another possibility is that the Great Sand Sea and Shrinking Sea (ignore that both names would have been anachronistic) fed one into the other, so that their desiccations were directly connected.  If we want to throw that into the mix, we could also theorize that they could have also fed into the Bleeding Sea, and given it enough of a current to keep the algae at bay.  I don't think this is the case, but I do think that the GSS and SS were part of the same river system.  On the one hand, the remaining rivers in Yi Ti do seem to approach the GSS much closer than they do the SS, so there's no obvious contender for the outflow river for the SS (whereas the GSS has a good contender in Asabhad's river).  The closest body of water to the SS would have been the GSS, so perhaps thats where it use to flow to.  On the other hand, the Hyrkoonian cultural sphere doesn't seem to have extended to the SS, which argues against a hydrological connection between the two seas.

 

As an aside, using the Wall as my unit of measurement (300 miles), we find that the Great Sand Sea is around 300 miles wide, and 1,500 miles long.  The Shrinking Sea is about 300 by 300 miles. (both these measurements are just rounded to the nearest wall-unit, to give an idea of size)

 

So, we have a vast region of the continent that had a very sizable water system in antiquity.  This would have resulted in a very fertile land.  Even today, the southern coast is covered in rainforest, so we know that the region clearly had plenty of water in wetter times.  We can also extrapolate a little more from the maps.  So, lets do that.

 

Looking at the lands east of the Bone Mountains, we see that all the moisture must be coming from the south.  The mountains to the west and east would prevent anything else.  Plus, the mountains of the Shadow Lands actually form a sort of scoop, curving around the Jade Sea, so that probably keeps any moisture from escaping.  We also know that the prevailing winds in the Jade Sea blow in such a fashion that the traders on a clockwise route.  So, at least close to the coast, the wind probably goes west to east, possibly curving around once they reach Asshai's scoop of a peninsula.  We don't know much about the currents, but its unlikely they travel too much against the wind, or the whole trade system would be different.

 

Now, here's the kicker, where everything comes together in a very fun way:

 

We have a region of the world that is much dryer than it used to be, so there clearly was some climactic disturbance.  The Jade Sea coast was likely wetter in ancient times, which implies that the Jade Sea itself was warmer.  We don't even need to mention all the examples on Earth where warmer seas produce wet coastlines (pretty much every non-mountainous region in the tropics).  So, the Jade Sea was likely warmer in times past.  What could have possibly cooled an entire ocean?  The currents would have to get really messed up, wouldn't they?  You'd have to get some serious amounts of cold water mixing in to the system.  Amounts on the scale, oh, say, of joining the cold Shivering Sea with the warm Summer Sea.  Just like what would happen if you took the land bridge that separated the two and broke it up.  Which happened in times of ancient legend, just like when the Golden Empire of the Dawn was at its height.  The ocean gets colder, the rainfall decreases, and all those fertile lands feeding the teeming populace of Asshai.

 

To wrap it all up: Asshai used to be huge, on a scale unseen in our pre-industrial history, and relied on the lands around the Great Sand Sea and Shrinking Sea to feed the capital.  Then, when the Arm of Dorne broke and the cold waters from the Shivering Sea mixed in with the warm waters of the Summer Sea, the climate shifted enough to ruin the fertile landscape.

 

Thats all I have for now.  Not quite as organized as LmL's theories, but I hope you all like it.

[DominusNovus]

Oh, actually, I did have one other point:

 

Since it seems likely that the Golden Empire of the Dawn had territory on Sothoryos, with its own sizable river system, its quite possible they also heavily farmed there, as well.  Granted, rainforests aren't exactly prime agricultural land on their own (they're pretty good once you get rid of all those pesky trees) for most civilizations, but the GEotD did have a big rainforest right in their backyard (which shares some fauna with Sothoryos), so they were probably used to that.

[Knight Of Winter]

Good theory. Not sure when/how it will be relevant to the plot, but it's an interesting read :thumbsup:

 

How much do we know about timeline, though? We know that Arm of Dorne was severed during FM's migrations to Westeros, which was roughly 12 thousands years ago, no? But IIRC we have no info about when Great Empire of the Dawn existed.

[mediterraneo]

Sorry if the question sounds offensive, it is not the intention: I lack information and so I ask.

 

Is this based on a single passage in which Asshai is described as "as big as the other four together"?

Is there any chance that it was just said as a declaration of its big size and relevance? The kind of thing you would have said of Rome around year 1000 CE, comparing it to the metropolises of that time in the Mediterranean? "At its peack it was as big as Cairo, Cordoba and Costantinople together"?

 

Cheers.

[targurl 15]

I find the idea of Asshai very interesting. A weird, magical, dangerous place.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

Is it fair to take this one step further...

The Children of the Forret broke the Arm of Dorn, austensibly to stop the First Men from crossing (more than they had).

So the Children of the Forrest caused the destruction of the Empire of the Dawn?

If so do we think it was intended? Was it part of a larger age old Fire/Ice "war"?

Do you think this ancient history is part of the same struggle that included the Doom of Valyria?

Or are you proposing it was just an unintended consequence of the Hammer of the Waters?

[DominusNovus]

Sorry if the question sounds offensive, it is not the intention: I lack information and so I ask.

 

Is this based on a single passage in which Asshai is described as "as big as the other four together"?

Is there any chance that it was just said as a declaration of its big size and relevance? The kind of thing you would have said of Rome around year 1000 CE, comparing it to the metropolises of that time in the Mediterranean? "At its peack it was as big as Cairo, Cordoba and Costantinople together"?

 

Cheers.

 

Asshai is described thusly, in A World of Ice and Fire, page 308:

 

Asshai is a large city, sprawling out for leagues on both banks of the black river Ash.  Behind its enormous land walls is ground enough for Volantis, Qarth, and King's Landing to stand side by side and still have room for Old Town.  Yet the population of Asshai is no greater than that of a good-sized market town.  By night, the streets are deserted, and only one building in ten shows a light.

 

So, yes, Asshai is geographically huge, but presently sparsely populated.  Just like your example of Rome during the early middle ages.

 

Now, if we want to do some actual calculating:

 

One league is 3.45 miles (lets just call it 3.5).  If the city extends for 'leagues' on both banks of the river, then there's at least 2 leagues of city on each side of the river, so its 14 miles wide.  If we assume that the city grew in anything remotely resembling a real city, then, odds are, it wouldn't stretch further away from the river than it goes along the river.  Cities just tend to grow along rivers.  So, lets just assume that its at least 14 miles long, as well.  This is a reasonable *lower* bound for the city, given the text we're given and a little logic about urban growth.  With this lower bound of dimensions, the maximum size of the city is 196 square miles.  Thats obscenely large for a pre-industrial city (though quite reasonable for a modern megalopolis)  For reference, the Aurelian Walls of Rome enclose an area of... 5.4 square miles.

 

Now, this all makes some very big assumptions:

- Asshai is roughly square-shaped.  I assume this, rather than it just hugging the coast and river, like two opposing 'L' shapes, because it takes just as much effort to build a wall around that smaller area than it does to build it around a larger area.  Most walled cities are pretty regular in shape.

- The river Ash flows into the sea at something resembling a right angle.  It could reach the sea at any number of angles that would alter the calculations a little, but not too much.  See, if you're building your city along the river, if the river curves in one direction, you're going to build your city along the curve.  Since Asshai exttends for leagues on both sides, we know that, regardless of the angle of the river, we're in the right ballpark.

- The only bodies of water are the river Ash, and the sea itself.  A city could have a very different shape due to the presence of a delta, lagoon, or spring nearby.  A perfect example is Alexandria, which is in a relatively narrow strip of land between the sea and a lake.  So, any major bodies of water near the city would definitely factor into the calculations.

 

Regardless of those caveats, we see a very large city here, and the figure above should give us a rough idea of the order of magnitude we're dealing with.

[DominusNovus]

Is it fair to take this one step further...

The Children of the Forret broke the Arm of Dorn, austensibly to stop the First Men from crossing (more than they had).

So the Children of the Forrest caused the destruction of the Empire of the Dawn?

If so do we think it was intended? Was it part of a larger age old Fire/Ice "war"?

Do you think this ancient history is part of the same struggle that included the Doom of Valyria?

Or are you proposing it was just an unintended consequence of the Hammer of the Waters?

 

Its quite possible.  The Empire seems to have an intimate connection with the Long Night, and Yi Ti legends say it was triggered by the Bloodstone Emperor of the Golden Empire of the Dawn.  Again, LmL has a lot of theories on it far better than my mathematical scribblings.

 

But its not necessary that the Empire was the target of the Hammer.  They could just be collateral damage.  Rather than trying to cool the Summer Sea down, it could have been an attempt to warm the Shivering Sea up.

 

As for Valyria, their doom happens far far far more recently.  400 years ago, instead of the Golden Empire of the Dawn's doom, which was probably around the time of the Long Night, so several thousands of years ago.

[Maester of Valyria]

Very good theory! Lml would be proud! Just a few pointers:

• We are told that food is brought into Asshai by sea, in exchange for treasure from the Shadowlands. This would fit in with the historical analogies of Constantinople and Rome (by the way, Valyria is very obviously based on Rome).
• I personally think that the Shrinking Sea is the site of the Bloodstone meteorite impact, which precipitated the Long Night. There is also a (worse, in my opinion) theory that the Arm of Dorne was broken by a similar meteorite. Maybe you could work this into your theory?
• For your theory about the Shivering and Summer seas mixing when the Arm was broken, this would necessitate Essos extending all the way around the Shivering sea, connecting at some point with the polar ice cap. While I admire your logic in mentioning the currents, we know (through knowledge that the Grey Waste does not connect to The Lands of Always Winter) that Essos does not do this.
• Maybe the climatic shift you are alluding to was the end of an ice age/Long Night?
• Finally, doesn't Adakhakileki have a Hyrkoon-ish name as well? Maybe the reason the city is ruined is because the lake it is next to turned poisonous?

[Maester of Valyria]

Is it fair to take this one step further...

The Children of the Forret broke the Arm of Dorn, austensibly to stop the First Men from crossing (more than they had).

So the Children of the Forrest caused the destruction of the Empire of the Dawn?

If so do we think it was intended? Was it part of a larger age old Fire/Ice "war"?

Do you think this ancient history is part of the same struggle that included the Doom of Valyria?

Or are you proposing it was just an unintended consequence of the Hammer of the Waters?

I quite like the view that the Breaking of the Arm was a delayed consequence of the world warming after the Long Night, as the ice caps melted and the seas rose. I know there are some prominent theories this conflicts with but it fits in with what Yandel says about the Breaking.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

I realize Valyria is a much more recent long dead ancient empire... But I always thought of it as the Rome to Asshai's Troy(Rome was supposedly founded by Aeneas, a survivor of Troy, of the royal blood no less). I guess my question is whether you believe the consequences of breaking the Arm of Dorn were intentional? Because if so I would think that the one responsible would be opposed to Valyroa as well. Weirwood Networks have long memories and no love of fire, it is known. Of course this would beg the question of where the hell Blood Raven fits in.

[John Suburbs]

Dragons supposedly originated in Asshai and the Shadowlands. Now it's a wasteland.

Dragons next appeared in Valyria. Now it's a wasteland.

Wherever dragons go, human habitation tends to suffer.

[LmL]

 

Very good theory! Lml would be proud! Just a few pointers:

• We are told that food is brought into Asshai by sea, in exchange for treasure from the Shadowlands. This would fit in with the historical analogies of Constantinople and Rome (by the way, Valyria is very obviously based on Rome).
• I personally think that the Shrinking Sea is the site of the Bloodstone meteorite impact, which precipitated the Long Night. There is also a (worse, in my opinion) theory that the Arm of Dorne was broken by a similar meteorite. Maybe you could work this into your theory?
• For your theory about the Shivering and Summer seas mixing when the Arm was broken, this would necessitate Essos extending all the way around the Shivering sea, connecting at some point with the polar ice cap. While I admire your logic in mentioning the currents, we know (through knowledge that the Grey Waste does not connect to The Lands of Always Winter) that Essos does not do this.
• Maybe the climatic shift you are alluding to was the end of an ice age/Long Night?
• Finally, doesn't Adakhakileki have a Hyrkoon-ish name as well? Maybe the reason the city is ruined is because the lake it is next to turned poisonous?

 

 

 

One of the islands of the broken arm, the Stepstones, is called bloodstone. ;)  That is no accident.  Right next to the broken arm, we find the city of Sunspear. Sun-spear. 

 

Also, most will agree that if there is any truth to my theories, that Dany's waking of dragons from stone is a perfect reenactment of the moon's destruction to pour forth dragon meteors. 

 

The third crack:

 

The fire is mine. I am Daenerys Stormborn, daughter of dragons, bride of dragons, mother of dragons, don’t you see? Don’t you SEE? With a belch of flame and smoke that reached thirty feet into the sky, the pyre collapsed and came down around her. Unafraid, Dany stepped forward into the firestorm, calling to her children. The third crack was as loud and sharp as the breaking of the world.

 

Then we have all the Iron Islands correlations, and the concept of Thor's Hammer. Thor's hammer throws lightning bolts. And the Grey King, an Azor Ahai type who calls down fire from heaven, calls down a thunderbolt, and then there is talk of the waves "hammering" Pyke and shattering the land. Pyke itself is a crescent of dark stone; when Robert comes to put down Balon's rebellion, he broke the crescent of dark stone with his hammer... and then the first through the breach was Thoros, with his flaming sword. 

 

There's even more evidence for this, but I think this is sufficient. Plus... we only have one mechanism that makes any sense for something that "hammers" the waters and land. Falling meteors.

 

As fore the cotf having been responsible... I don't believe it. I think human greenseers, abusing the magical gifts of the cotf, make lot more sense. The Bloodstone Emperor supposedly caused the Long Night through his evil magic. The Grey King called down the lightning bolt of the Storm God, and he slew the sea dragon (which I interpret as a meteor landing in the water). Durran Godsgrief stole something from heaven too, this time the daughter of the god. Of course the moon is a goddess, so stealing the moon is the same idea. Then we have Hugor Hill, whose crown was made from stars pulled down from heaven.

 

No cotf involvement in any of this. But I do think there are clues that all these humans who pulled things down from heaven were greenseers. That's another topic entirely, but I think I have found evidence indicating this. 

[LmL]

Dominus, I really like your analysis about the bodies of water. I have long speculated that the breaking of the arm would shift global temperatures, because of the merging of the shivering sea and summer sea. Whether or not this was the intent. it clearly is the case, because of all the many indications that the east is drying out. 

 

Love your bit about Assabad and the Great Sand Sea. The river does indeed point right at it. Did you notice "Zabhad" on the Isle of Elephants? Another indication that civilization extended south from Yi Ti / GEotD areas. 

 

I saw you didn't mention the Saffron Straights thing.  It seems a clear indicator that trade once flowed through those straights. That in turn confirms that the peninsula was not always a desolate wasteland,and that there are more places further east with whom one might trade. 

 

Here's the thing - I see no explanation for the idea of building the largest city in the history of the world DURING the Long Night. I don't think anything was built during the Long Night - it was total chaos, anarchy, famine, and war for survival. No public works on a grand scale would be feasible. And if you were a dark sorcerer who needed to build a city next to a source of dark magic, you would not need to build it on this scale. A simple fortress like at battle isle would suffice. 

 

BTW, I can't help but see parallels to the Phoenicians and Battle Isle.  The Phoenicians liked to build fortresses cities just off the coast of another country, so as to protect their trade monopoly. Battle Isle reeks of that. We are told it was a settlement built by traders from overseas. And its on an island just offshore.

[DominusNovus]

 

Very good theory! Lml would be proud! Just a few pointers:

• We are told that food is brought into Asshai by sea, in exchange for treasure from the Shadowlands. This would fit in with the historical analogies of Constantinople and Rome (by the way, Valyria is very obviously based on Rome).
• I personally think that the Shrinking Sea is the site of the Bloodstone meteorite impact, which precipitated the Long Night. There is also a (worse, in my opinion) theory that the Arm of Dorne was broken by a similar meteorite. Maybe you could work this into your theory?
• For your theory about the Shivering and Summer seas mixing when the Arm was broken, this would necessitate Essos extending all the way around the Shivering sea, connecting at some point with the polar ice cap. While I admire your logic in mentioning the currents, we know (through knowledge that the Grey Waste does not connect to The Lands of Always Winter) that Essos does not do this.
• Maybe the climatic shift you are alluding to was the end of an ice age/Long Night?
• Finally, doesn't Adakhakileki have a Hyrkoon-ish name as well? Maybe the reason the city is ruined is because the lake it is next to turned poisonous?

 

 

Thanks.

 

To the point about Essos extending all the way around the shivering sea, I don't see why that would be needed in order for the breaking of the arm to change the currents.  After all, any additional contact between two previously isolated bodies of water would drastically change the system.  We see a very minor example in our Suez canal, where the Mediterranean and Red seas are beginning to mix, where they didn't before (even though Africa does not block them by going all the way down to Antarctica).  This change is not likely to be drastic, simply because of the nature of the Red and Mediterranean Seas (no strong currents).  Similarly, by opening up a new connection between the Shivering and Summer Seas, you would sea a drastic change in the ecosystem there.  While you can probably sail entirely around Essos if you want to, that doesn't mean the currents would.  The ocean could easily be of varying depths that inhibit currents, there could be more straits that serve as barriers as well.  We see that already in the map:

 

The Jade Sea is still surrounded by rich rainforest on almost every shore, except for Asshai.  Meanwhile, the lands around the northern shore of the Summer Sea are much dryer, while the southern regions are still rainforest, like around the Jade Sea.  I don't think this is a coincidence.  We know that the prevailing winds are clockwise in the Jade Sea, and prevailing winds tend to follow the same routes, absent major barriers like mountains.  Since we're talking coastal regions, thats not as big an issue.  So, you have prevailing winds over the Summer Sea that bring relatively dry air along the Essos coast up to the Bone Mountains, cycling southward until they finally pick up enough moisture to drop it over Sothoryos.  Meanwhile, the Jade Sea, which is relatively isolated, still is hot enough for more water to evaporate and keep its coastlines verdant.  When the Summer Sea was warmer, it likely contributed to this cycle, resulting in the entire area being greener.

 

You don't even need for the Summer Sea weather system to directly contribute to the Jade Sea weather system to get the desired result.  All that needs happen is for the Bone Mountains to get enough rainfall that a large amount makes its way into the Great Sand Sea.  That sea, itself, will help keep Essos east of the Bone Mountains green.

[DominusNovus]

Dominus, I really like your analysis about the bodies of water. I have long speculated that the breaking of the arm would shift global temperatures, because of the merging of the shivering sea and summer sea. Whether or not this was the intent. it clearly is the case, because of all the many indications that the east is drying out. 

 

Love your bit about Assabad and the Great Sand Sea. The river does indeed point right at it. Did you notice "Zabhad" on the Isle of Elephants? Another indication that civilization extended south from Yi Ti / GEotD areas. 

 

I saw you didn't mention the Saffron Straights thing.  It seems a clear indicator that trade once flowed through those straights. That in turn confirms that the peninsula was not always a desolate wasteland,and that there are more places further east with whom one might trade. 

 

Here's the thing - I see no explanation for the idea of building the largest city in the history of the world DURING the Long Night. I don't think anything was built during the Long Night - it was total chaos, anarchy, famine, and war for survival. No public works on a grand scale would be feasible. And if you were a dark sorcerer who needed to build a city next to a source of dark magic, you would not need to build it on this scale. A simple fortress like at battle isle would suffice. 

 

BTW, I can't help but see parallels to the Phoenicians and Battle Isle.  The Phoenicians liked to build fortresses cities just off the coast of another country, so as to protect their trade monopoly. Battle Isle reeks of that. We are told it was a settlement built by traders from overseas. And its on an island just offshore.

 

- I did notice Zabhad, but didn't want to get too hung up on exploring just how far the related civilizations had spread.

- Absolutely agreed about the Saffron Straits.  I'm starting to think, however, contrary to my speculation in our previous conversation, that Asshai's empire didn't extend very far east of those straits in any large swath of territory.  Mainly due to the name: If you're naming a region after a trade good, that is where it is coming into your sphere of influence.  I think Asshai expanded westward for the most part.  A good analogy would be the European age of exploration:  The Europeans expanded westward with settler colonies, and they built trading posts eastward, to control the trade routes.  I think Asshai did the same thing.  Battle Isle, regardless of which way they went, was likely the terminus of such a string of trading posts.  Your Phoenician analogy is particularly apt.  Although, that would make Carthage a better analogue to Valyria than Rome.

- I agree that Asshai was built up to that extent well before the Long Night, during the Golden Age of their Empire.  To the point of where a dark sorcerer (presumably the Bloodstone Emperor) would want to set up shop:

 

If you're practicing dark (blood) magic, is there anywhere else you'd want to be than the largest city on the planet?

 

Also, thanks very much for your thoughts!

[Maester of Valyria]

 

Thanks.

 

To the point about Essos extending all the way around the shivering sea, I don't see why that would be needed...

 

You don't even need for the Summer Sea weather system to directly contribute to the Jade Sea weather system to get the desired result.  All that needs happen is for the Bone Mountains to get enough rainfall that a large amount makes its way into the Great Sand Sea.  That sea, itself, will help keep Essos east of the Bone Mountains green.

I see your point about the sea currents; I really should have thought of that! You know a lot about the various weather and climatic systems; is that your career or something? I personally am drafting a theory that would explain aspects like the curl of the Shadowlands; when I finish it I think you'll find it interesting. Once again well done!

 

 

 

BTW, I can't help but see parallels to the Phoenicians and Battle Isle.  The Phoenicians liked to build fortresses cities just off the coast of another country, so as to protect their trade monopoly. Battle Isle reeks of that. We are told it was a settlement built by traders from overseas. And its on an island just offshore.

I have a (very extensive, even by your standards!) theory coming out soon (if I ever finish it; I write slower than GRRM). In it, I give what I believe is a very plausible explaination for the location and origin of Battle Isle. I think you might find it useful for your own work.

 

However, I disagree with your idea about Bloodstone (the Stepstone, not the meteorite). If the Bloodstone Emperor had extended his reach all the way to the Narrow Sea, there would be evidence for it in the histories of Westeros and the Free Cities (by which I mean whatever civilisations came before them; Yandel touches on these). The name threw me as well when I saw it, but I strongly believe that it is named so because of all the blood that has been spilled on and for it (most notably Daemon Targaryen's (partially successful) conquest of the Stepstones- remember he took Bloodstone for his seat).

[LmL]

 

- I did notice Zabhad, but didn't want to get too hung up on exploring just how far the related civilizations had spread.

- Absolutely agreed about the Saffron Straits.  I'm starting to think, however, contrary to my speculation in our previous conversation, that Asshai's empire didn't extend very far east of those straits in any large swath of territory.  Mainly due to the name: If you're naming a region after a trade good, that is where it is coming into your sphere of influence.  I think Asshai expanded westward for the most part.  A good analogy would be the European age of exploration:  The Europeans expanded westward with settler colonies, and they built trading posts eastward, to control the trade routes.  I think Asshai did the same thing.  Battle Isle, regardless of which way they went, was likely the terminus of such a string of trading posts.  Your Phoenician analogy is particularly apt.  Although, that would make Carthage a better analogue to Valyria than Rome.

- I agree that Asshai was built up to that extent well before the Long Night, during the Golden Age of their Empire.  To the point of where a dark sorcerer (presumably the Bloodstone Emperor) would want to set up shop:

 

If you're practicing dark (blood) magic, is there anywhere else you'd want to be than the largest city on the planet?

 

Also, thanks very much for your thoughts!

 

I tend to agree that the GEotD likely expand west primarily - I was pointing out the straights to suggest further avenues of securing food or resources. 

 

Also, there is actually a decent bit of plains are on the Asshai peninsula itself. It's just covered in Ghost Grass now.  

Asshai's location athwart the straights means they were an empire with a strong naval power. It's a lot like Qarth, jealously guarding the Jade gates for reasons of trade, and doing so with their navy.  The GEotD must have naval power as well, to ravel all the way to Westeros and build a fortress there, and also to conquer the Holy Isle of Leng. 

 

Enjoying the OP, I love it when my ideas shake lose more ideas. Lord knows I had plenty of other people's ideas kicking around in my head when I started putting things together.  :cheers:

[DominusNovus]

I see your point about the sea currents; I really should have thought of that! You know a lot about the various weather and climatic systems; is that your career or something? I personally am drafting a theory that would explain aspects like the curl of the Shadowlands; when I finish it I think you'll find it interesting. Once again well done!

 

Nope, just a voracious reader and gluttonous infovore.  Thank you for thinking I come across as a professional, though!

[DominusNovus]

Going back to my number crunching on Asshai's population:

If we assume a minimum area of ~200 sq. miles, and a minimum population of ~2 million, we get a population density of 10,000 people per square mile, with those figures.  To put that in perspective, lets compared to New York City, circa 1900, when it had a population of ~3.5 million, and had just annexed all its burroughs, giving it an area of 468 sq. miles.  ~7,500 people per square mile.  Asshai beats NYC in the industrial age?  Surely that must be wrong!  Well, consider that, in 1900, it was still pretty easy to find vast tracts of land all across the continent for virtually free, so people were constantly leaving the major cities to go to small towns and farm. And, when we consider how small Rome was, and that it had a population of 1 million... lets just say that living in Asshai would have been incredibly spacious, compared to living in Rome (and if you ever want to talk about a city where public buildings make a dent in your carrying capacity, its Rome).  Of course, we don't know if Asshai covered a significantly larger area, but I think it didn't; we'd hear about how long it went along the river, rather than how far wide it went away from the river, as the main way of describing how big it was.  And we don't know if it had a larger population, either.  More wild guessing and number crunching is needed!

 

So, lets go back to Rome for a bit.  If Rome had an area of 5.3 square miles, and everyone was living inside the area protected by the Aurelian Walls (not that they were around when Rome was at its highest population), it would have had a population density of ~190,000 people per square mile.  Thats... just brutal, so I'm going to accept that, when it was at its peak, Rome covered an area larger than Aurelian would later wall off.  Lets assume Rome had suburbs around it that were counted in the 1 million population figure.  No idea how big those suburbs are, but lets be generous to the Romans: We'll treat Rome itself as a perfect circle, radius of 1 (the unit of measurement will be 'radius-of-a-perfectly-circular-rome).  We'll then surround that circle with another circle, to represent the suburbs, and this larger circle will have a radius of 3 radii-of-a-perfectly-circular-rome.  Why 3?  Because thats the radius you would get if the suburbs extend out as far from the edge of Rome as Rome itself.  So, pulling out the circumference calculator, we find that Rome and its suburbs are almost exactly 9 times as big as Rome by itself. (you'd get the same basic result if Rome were a square surrounded by 8 equally sized squares, like the center of a tic-tac-toe game)  Is this right?  I don't know, but it does let us take that oppressively crowded ~190,000 people per square mile down to a much more bearable ~21,000.  That sounds much fairer, as we're now in the same general neighborhood as actual NYC, and our guesses for Asshai.

 

Of course, that means that it is entirely possible that Asshai had a population, not of ~2 million, but of ~4 million.  Given that we were estimating ~2-3 million earlier on, that doesn't sound that unreasonable either.  Especially if Asshai is the forefather to Valyria, which is GRRM's 'super rome with magic and dragons and better than rome in every way' city.

 

But hey, more blood sacrifices!  Though I imagine that the Bloodstone Emperor probably spun it as urban renewal and clearing out the slums.