Sansa and the Giants - an analysis and prediction based on foreshadowing of Sansa's arc in the Vale

[Schwarze Sonne]

Yes, I left out the Ashford tourney theory, as well as the parallel between the description of the Eyrie and Whitewalls..It's long enough as it is; I've restricted myself to aSoIaF foreshadowing and to POV chapters that have a direct tie to Sansa. However, the Targaryen suitor in the Ashford list does not exclude the Burned Men from stealing Sansa: they seem to have worshipped a dragonrider once. But yes, I think she'll follow Shadrich most likely, to end up in Varys' schemes.  

I know it'll be too long to include details from D&E into your theories, but at least the part about Sansa having a Targaryen suitor should come true, instead of Timett. Although I believe Timett'll try to take her as his woman, for the North of course.

The pattern in the parallells betwen Ashford's and Sansa's suitors only involved surname (true borns or frauds), so the Burned Men worshipping a dragonrider is safe to excluded. They can't fake their surname.

Sansa will be LF's downfall, by ordering him decapitated, of course. But I don't think she'd be the main reason. According to you,  LF's upcoming unexpected disaster is coming right to his face and he'd be powerless with all his cleverness proved futiled. The theme in ASOIAF is mainly focused on futility.

I'm amazed no one ever noticed these omnious foreshadowings for over a decade. They are too subtle. I thought the Eyrie is just a depressing place.

I hope to see more continuation! Your blogs are amazing!

[sweetsunray]

I know it'll be too long to include details from D&E into your theories, but at least the part about Sansa having a Targaryen suitor should come true, instead of Timett. Although I believe Timett'll try to take her as his woman, for the North of course.

The pattern in the parallells betwen Ashford's and Sansa's suitors only involved surname (true borns or frauds), so the Burned Men worshipping a dragonrider is safe to excluded. They can't fake their surname.

Sansa will be LF's downfall, by ordering him decapitated, of course. But I don't think she'd be the main reason.According to you,  LF's upcoming unexpected disaster is coming right to his face and he'd be powerless with all his cleverness proved futiled. The theme in ASOIAF is mainly focused on futility.

I'm amazed no one ever noticed these omnious foreshadowings for over a decade. They are too subtle. I thought the Eyrie is just a depressing place.

I hope to see more continuation! Your blogs are amazing!

What I meant is that it cannot be yet excluded that the Burned Men might hand Sansa to a Targaryen (a dragon).

People have noted something is up with Ser Hugh's death scene, and certainly the snow castle scene, and people have suggested the mountain clans might attack and gain the upperhand... but indeed, so far I don't think people have connected to the dots with the mountain of doom. Instead they've been thinking of something with Gregor Clegane, an overall allusion to the Long Night as a threat, or the destroyed moon allusion. And of course, there are so many names, so many characters, and we've been conditioned to look at that, especially in an arc with a political player such as LF... that you don't pay much attention to the mountain's name: Giant's Lance.

Yes, that I think is basically the effect of the Vale arc I see foreshadowed: LF calls himself the master in chaos, his adaptibility, and then there's his aim to profit from war and winter ... he kept Vale armies out of the wars, he stored food and is still unwilling to sell it...But then comes a chaos that even he can't handle, and his saving of troops and food rather futile, at least in keeping it for his own ends. And of course, Tyrion will have paid his debt of LF getting him into trouble with Catelyn, regarding the dagger. It's a what goes around, comes around arc that he cannot control, manipulate or bribe.

Thank you

[Seams]

A few additional thoughts over the past few days about the Eyrie, Sansa's snow castle, and their symbolism.

"Eyrie" is a name for an eagle's nest. I've wondered what kind of eagle connection the Eyrie of the Vale might have. Mostly, I associate eagles with the wildlings: Orell skinchanges into an eagle and the name Ygritte is almost like eaglet. But there is a bird motif at the Eyrie, so maybe the name of the castle isn't specific to eagles, but to birds in general. For instance, aside from the nickname Sweetrobin, the description of little Robert Arryn leaving the castle with Sansa/Alayne and Mya evokes an image of a bird trying to take flight but being held down (by attendants holding his cloak). Sweetrobin wants to see men "fly" out the moon door in the castle and his mother does make this one-way flight. Of course, there are lots of bird images throughout the book, so what might be special about the Eyrie's connection to birds?

Maybe the Eyrie isn't connected to birds so much as flight. Robert Baratheon and Ned Stark were fostered there. When they emerged as young warriors from the Gates of the Moon, Robert's Rebellion began and a new king was born. I understand there is a legend that the world had a second moon which cracked like an egg, causing dragons to hatch. Is it possible that GRRM gave us a "hatching" and "fledglings leaving the nest" when Ned and Robert B. emerged from the (Gates of the) Moon? Were they more like hatching dragons - a different flying creature - than hatching birds? If a young person emerging from the Moon (gate) is like the hatching of the dragons from the broken moon, what will this mean for Sansa? Sweetrobin? Will Mya and Myranda Royce also "hatch" when they emerge, or do you have to spend more time at the Eyrie to be part of this symbolic rebirth?

(For what it's worth, I think Tyrion emerging from the wine barrel upon arrival in Essos is also a symbolic dragon hatching. He may have a second hatching soon after that, when the ship Selaesori Qhoran breaks like an egg in the storm.)

The three waycastles leading to the Eyrie also piqued my interest: Sky, Snow and Stone. There is a logical progression as the traveler trudges higher along the path to the Eyrie or descends toward the valley. I was also intrigued, though, that Sansa stopped being Sandor's little bird and started being a bear cub at the Eyrie. (sweetsunray, I just read your The Bear and the Maiden Fair thread, and got some new thoughts based on that good OP and follow-up posts.) Sansa wears bear skins to descend from the Eyrie. Maybe her rebirth/hatching isn't about becoming a king or lord, like Robert and Ned making the same trip, but about taking on the next symbolic skinchange from a creature of the air to a creature of the earth. Just before she begins to build her snow castle, she looks to the sky. Then she "did not remember falling" but finds herself on her knees on the ground with the fallen snow that tastes of Winterfell. She has literally come down to earth and will soon travel from the Sky to Snow and then to Stone. I hope it's not illogical to see the Gates of the Moon as part of a separate sequence - part of the broken moon / hatching symbolism, not the descending-from-air-to-earth symbolism.

Like Varamyr Sixskins, maybe Sansa remains a little bird on some level, but adds bear cub to her symbolic options? This might also help to explain Arya's many states of being: squab, swan, acorn/oak, weasel, otter, horseface, etc. Each Stark girl has either mastered each transformation, or is in the process of mastering it.

The Sky, Snow and Stone trio of waycastles also may tie into the puzzling quarrying of marble in Tarth for the building of the Eyrie. By bringing stone from sea level up onto a mountain, there is an attempt to unite sky and earth or to bring the earth up to the sky. I'm thinking that this creates an imbalance of sorts, however, and that the avalanche scenario you have outlined will be nature's way of returning that stone to its proper level.

But let us return once again to Sansa's snow castle. Just before she begins her project, she notes that the soil at the Eyrie would not allow the growth of a weirwood, even though the garden had been set aside for this purpose: "A godswood without gods, as empty as me." For her model of Winterfell, however, she finds broken branches and twigs under the snow and uses them to make trees for the miniature godswood. (Not to get too far away from my point, but she is planting trees like Dany at this point.) Littlefinger shows up and tells Sansa to use twigs for the lattice of the greenhouse and to pack snow around sticks to make the bridges.

Sticks. Twigs. Branches. Wood. All very northern, very Old Gods. While practicing her sword moves for Syrio Forel, Arya balances in the upper branches of trees. When he reaches the COTF cave above the wall, Bran eats weirwood paste. Arya wears a dress covered with acorns for her pivotal ugly-duckling-turning-swan moment with Lady Smallwood (nee Swann). In Sansa's memory of the snowball fight with Arya and Bran at Winterfell, she recalls Bran taking up a position on the roof of a covered bridge. The equivalent in the snow model would put Bran on a snow-covered stick. Are these all Stark birds on twigs? After he climbs the keep at Winterfell and is pushed off, Bran will never walk on earth again; does this mean that he will always be a creature of the air? He rides on Hodor's back, and Hodor is among the tall people Ned compares to The Mountain when he first sees him at King's Landing. So Bran is still high up on a mountain, even when he is traveling along the King's Road or passing through the Black Gate under The Wall. As a prisoner of the sky, he could not experience the kind of rebirth Sansa undergoes as she descends from Sky to Snow to Stone.

(As your other thread so persuasively lays out, though, Arya is becoming a swan, which is a water bird. Water dancer? So she has - or will have - more options than Bran has to move on the ground as well as the air. She killed a pigeon and then inadvertently lost it on one of her first days on her own in King's Landing. And a squab is an unfledged pigeon so no flying with that identity, either.)

For her snow castle, Sansa is the one who creates the godswood out of twigs, bringing the Old Gods to both the Eyrie and to her dream of Winterfell. But why is it Littlefinger who comes up with the idea to use twigs for the structure of the glass garden and the bridges? My current thinking is that Littlefinger is playing a mentor role here, literally showing Sansa how to bridge a gap so she can get to her next quest or task. And, being a Stark, the way to bridge the gap is with wood and snow. He also tells her how to stop thinking about her King's Landing experience by advising her to cover the gargoyle (Tyrion) with snow, turning it into an undifferentiated lump. Put that gargoyle behind you, build a bridge and get to - a garden with imaginary glass? Why doesn't it occur to Littlefinger or Sansa to use some ice to make the glass? There is something about the symbolism here that requires that the garden does not have a glass covering - at least, not yet. Is GRRM implying that Sansa must seek dragonglass if she wants to complete her dream of a restored Winterfell? A glass candle? Is Littlefinger, for some reason, unable to come into contact with ice? Or does he want to avoid bringing Sansa into contact with it? The imaginary glass seems like an important moment in the literary symbolism or foreshadowing, but I don't have an answer. There isn't a lot of glass in the books, so it's hard to think of other references to the motif that might help to sort out the meaning here.

Edit: I just came upon a quote that might explain the absence of glass in Sansa's snow castle. It may tie in with the fruit motif (lemon cakes, blood orange, pear) that often comes up around Sansa. It also sounds as if it might tie into Sansa's earlier remark about the empty godswood and her own emptiness. This is Theon looking around Winterfell just after the wedding ceremony of fArya/Jeyne and Ramsay: "The thatch and timber had been consumed by fire, in whole or in part, and under the shattered panes of the Glass Garden the fruits and vegetables that would have fed the castle during the winter were dead and black and frozen." (ADwD, Chap. 35)

[sweetsunray]

I'll respond to your post tomorrow: I like a lot of the associations you are making in it though! Certainly deserves an exchange of ideas!

On the bear-maiden thread. A lot of the content got lost with the change of forum (like whatever is written behidn the first quote text). And I'm slowly reconstructing the essays and comments in that thread. But it's going slow, since I'm rewriting a bunch of those essays and rearranging some stuff of it for the blog.

If you want to read it in full as it is archived: then click the link in my sig, and then replace asoiaf.westeros.org with forum.westeros.org in the address section of your browser. This will take you to the temporary archive of the forum. You can't post there, but at least you can read the complete archived stuff.

[Seams]

I've also been thinking about Ser Shadrich of the Shady Glen (more trees!) and his potential future role in Sansa's arc and whatever cataclysm might happen at the Gates of the Moon.

I couldn't help but wonder whether GRRM is alluding to the Old Testament figure, Shadrach, by using the name Shadrich for this character. Associations for the name Shadrach:

• A Burned Man? Shadrach "and his two companions refused to bow down before the image which Nebuchadnezzar had set up on the plains of Dura. Their conduct filled the king with the greatest fury, and he commanded them to be cast into the burning fiery furnace. Here, amid the fiery flames, they were miraculously preserved from harm. Over them the fire had no power, 'neither was a hair of their head singed, neither had the smell of fire passed on them.' Thus Nebuchadnezzar learned the greatness of the God of Israel."
• A failed or unformed sword? "A mass of iron on which the operation of smelting has failed of its intended effect; -- so called from Shadrach, one of the three Hebrews who came forth unharmed from the fiery furnace of Nebuchadnezzar."
• Something to do with the Gates of the Moon? Shadrach "Means 'command of Aku' in Akkadian, Aku being the name of the Babylonian god of the moon." Another website gives the interpretation, "Command of the Moon-God."

I realize that the character in ASOIAF and the Old Testament figure do not have the exact same name, but it seems like more than a coincidence that this man hunting for Sansa could be alluding to so many of the important symbols we see converging as the books progress. 

For what it's worth, I see GRRM sometimes using names as a sort of shorthand - For instance, I suspect that Good Queen Alysanne, Alys Karstark and Alyssa Arryn (namesake of Alyssa's Tears) may prove to be linked as strong women or matriarchs or grieving women or perhaps even part of a linked bloodline.

As for his sigil, the white mouse with the red eyes does seem to allude to the direwolf Ghost, weirwood trees and other totems of the North. I am persuaded by the theories that Sansa will end up under the guidance or protection of Shadrich as she makes her way to her next challenge.

[Rippounet]

Fantastic work! I've seldom been that convinced by a very specific prediction. I think the last time was when I read about Stannis's "Battle on the ice" and that was some time ago.

So the question would be, who does Sansa end up with once the Vale has fallen? Timett or Shadrich? There are arguments for both, and I can't make up my mind.

[Lord Varys]

There is indeed no need for the Bloody Gate if the mountain clans want to make trouble. The high road is the only big pass through the mountains but since the clansmen live in the mountains they should know other ways coming down.

I agree that the clansmen might eventually come down when winter hits them hardest, but I'm not sure they can threaten the Vale in any meaningful way. Half of the men Tyrion took to the Green Fork died, and only they got their good steel. The survivors seemed to accompany Tyrion to KL, even more died, and only Timett's and Chella's gang returned, Shagga is still in the Kingswood.

Whatever little good steal they have shouldn't help them against the Lords of the Vale, and unless they number in the tens of thousands they won't become a real threat to anyone.

If you ask me then the clansmen plot is pretty much dead since Tyrion's story changed away from the Vale.

As to avalanche idea:

There could be avalanches in the Vale, of course. But the idea that the Gates of the Moon are really threatened by such an event is a pretty big stretch. I mean, that castle has stood there for thousands of years. The spot is most likely at a place where no avalanche can touch it.

[Nevets]

That mountain, the Giant's Lance, has been featured and mentioned repetitively in ominous ways over and over and over and over. To say that the Giant's Lance in relation to a disaster has not been foreshadowed is wiping pragraph after paragraph of every Vale chapter away, both in Catelyn's chapters in aGoT and Sansa's. The foreshadowing is there, but George also distracted people from connecting the dots to the real drama happening.

"Sansa slaying a savage giant": everybody's focus is distracted to Sansa killing a giant and who that giant might be, thereby dismissing the very obvious scene of 2 giants destroying the dream of WF and the snow castle.

the giant doll knocking on the door: everybody's focus as a threat to Sansa is on a character identifiable as a giant, and completely missing out on SR having the size of a mountain in comparison to the snow castle and destroying it completely with his shaking fit.

Rockslides have been mentioned. Lysa's hubris of them being so safe and the mountain being their protector. Gates of the Moon the size of chldren's toys and people as tiny as ants that can be stepped on and crushed. All the snow build-up. Alyssa's Tears required to touch the Vale's soil. It all tells us that some disaster is going to come down the mountain. Waking giants from earth and shaking-fits, and thus earthquakes. Well, it either can be a rockslide or an avalanche. And because of the snow, an avalanche is way more fitting a symbol of winter than a rockslide.

You can't argue it's not foreshadowed. What you argue is that nobody has connected the dots yet, that you didn't consider it yet, and therefore it's dismissable. So, you didn't figure it out, and therefore it's a deus-ex-machina? Sorry, but that argument is hogwash.

As for Harry, believe what you will. I think it will be a postive experience and positive memory, because the doom scenario requires some positive highlight to make some balance for Sansa. And since she's been kissed by so many toads, for once she might have a thumbs-up kiss too. It's not as if George writes his women having positive sexual and romantic experiences with the "One and Only" alone. Daenerys sleeps with Daario, but nobody belives he's her "One and Only". Is that so bad? No, it isn't. It's part of her experience. Asha and Arianna? Same thing. They all had men they slept with and were smitten with, though not one of them is their "True Love", around the age of 14. They still meet and see those men, but are long over them.

Guess which age Sansa is approaching? She had a crush on Joffrey, like an 11-year old who dreams of the popular boy at elementary school, and where the boy asks her whether she wants to be his girl and they areknown to be an item, though they do nothing more than hold hands and there's nothing sexual about it. She had a fantasy crush on Loras, like a 12-year old dreaming of the pop-star she has a poster up in her room. Those are totally normal developments and experiences of any woman. Next up is the first kiss with a young man you want to kiss. That'll be Harry. The fact that he is introduced in a negative way by Myranda (and later himself) to Sansa, imo means the reverse will happen. She'll like him. In that sense, George is breaking the trope of "the first is your true love". No, the character indicated to find true love in her first love, is Arya with Cat's remark that Arya's already in love. Not Sansa. She might have already met her true love, but she'll love a number of boys and young men before realizing he's the one.  

I have done a reread of the relevant chapters, and I still nothing that indicates foreshadowing of a massive disaster, especially one which the characters involved would be aware of the possibility of.  And so far in the series, everything bad that has happened has happened because one or more characters took a deliberate action, either to bring about the tragic event (examples too numerous to mention), or did something knowing of the risks involved; for example; Robert hunting boar while drunk, aided by his wife's wish for his death; Stannis campaigning in the middle of winter; Tyrion taking a ship knowing his destination (Meereen) isn't the same as the ship's (Qarth).  Yet you are suggesting a large-scale tragedy occurring without human intervention or characters knowingly going into danger.  Which flies in the face of GRRM's writing style up to now, which has been consistent that bad things happen because people (either the characters themselves or someone else) make them happen, not because of some action of the gods, or simple bad luck.  

With respect to Harry, I still think Sansa will be very wary, having been badly hurt before, and knowing that she will be sought for her claim to the North.  Joffrey was not merely a crush, but someone she was betrothed to, and who hurt her very badly.  That will take its toll.

 

[sweetsunray]

There is indeed no need for the Bloody Gate if the mountain clans want to make trouble. The high road is the only big pass through the mountains but since the clansmen live in the mountains they should know other ways coming down.

I agree that the clansmen might eventually come down when winter hits them hardest, but I'm not sure they can threaten the Vale in any meaningful way. Half of the men Tyrion took to the Green Fork died, and only they got their good steel. The survivors seemed to accompany Tyrion to KL, even more died, and only Timett's and Chella's gang returned, Shagga is still in the Kingswood.

Whatever little good steal they have shouldn't help them against the Lords of the Vale, and unless they number in the tens of thousands they won't become a real threat to anyone.

If you ask me then the clansmen plot is pretty much dead since Tyrion's story changed away from the Vale.

As to avalanche idea:

There could be avalanches in the Vale, of course. But the idea that the Gates of the Moon are really threatened by such an event is a pretty big stretch. I mean, that castle has stood there for thousands of years. The spot is most likely at a place where no avalanche can touch it.

Tyrion had 300 fighting men of the mountain clans with him, while there are said to be 3000 fighters for the mountain clans. Shagga may have stayed in the Kingswood after aCoK for a while, but it is not certain whether he is still there. In any case, by the end of aSoS, the villagers report to Arya and Sandor that the clan Shagga is a member of has raided a village, butchered the men and took the women. I never claimed the full levied armies would be gathered at the Gates of the Moon. There seems little reason to do that. And whatever forces are there would be greatly reduced by the avalanche. So, in numbers, I would not dismiss those 3000 fighters out of hand, just because Shagga might perhaps still scourge Kingswood with his 100 fighters.

Why the Bloody Gate: What good are high mountain trails when they're snowed in and the mountain clans have to seek lower areas themselves to survive? Let alone what's left of those trails after an avalanche?

The castle has been built thousands of year after the first Long Night, and without heavy earthquakes. Earthquakes alone would have damaged the Eyrie if there ever had been heavy earthquakes. Sure, there might have been minor avalanches here and there in the mountains. There are different types of avalanches: slab ones (high up), wet snow avalanches (slow), and then there are snow powder avalanches. It's the latter which are the deadliest. Up to 10000 tons racing at 300 mph that can cross a valley and even go uphill again. No wall can stand against such forces racing down from a steep mountain of over 4000 m high. The Gates of the Moon have been untested, but hypothetically this is a very realistic scenario. With the foreshadowing of the Giant's Lance in several ways in relation to the Gates of the Moon the Gates are a goner.

[sweetsunray]

I have done a reread of the relevant chapters, and I still nothing that indicates foreshadowing of a massive disaster, especially one which the characters involved would be aware of the possibility of.  And so far in the series, everything bad that has happened has happened because one or more characters took a deliberate action, either to bring about the tragic event (examples too numerous to mention), or did something knowing of the risks involved; for example; Robert hunting boar while drunk, aided by his wife's wish for his death; Stannis campaigning in the middle of winter; Tyrion taking a ship knowing his destination (Meereen) isn't the same as the ship's (Qarth).  Yet you are suggesting a large-scale tragedy occurring without human intervention or characters knowingly going into danger.  Which flies in the face of GRRM's writing style up to now, which has been consistent that bad things happen because people (either the characters themselves or someone else) make them happen, not because of some action of the gods, or simple bad luck.  

With respect to Harry, I still think Sansa will be very wary, having been badly hurt before, and knowing that she will be sought for her claim to the North.  Joffrey was not merely a crush, but someone she was betrothed to, and who hurt her very badly.  That will take its toll.

 

I gave you all the foreshadowing evidence for it. That you choose to ignore those passages is your choice. It doesn't make them any less of a foreshadowing.

As for human contributors? Whomever blows that horn of winter and wakes the giants and causes earthquakes is a possible candidate. And then there's the sepculated scenario of whatever mayham Sweetrobin might cause. His running up the mountain to go "home" and wandering into the snow, might be just that little bit of extra weight that the unstable snow levels cannot bear anymore. There you have your character wilfully going into danger.

What of Melisandre's vision of a tsunami like wave crashing into towers? A good author would have different causes of disasters razing previous power situations. Most of the time they will be of people's making. Sometimes they are natural disasters, especially since natural disasters are realistic and well as the word says, 'natural'.

As for Harry: what claim of the North? He doesn't know she's Sansa. He thinks she's a bastard daughter of Baelish who has a tiny old tower to his name and cursed Harrenhal. The whole set-up excludes Sansa from being wary of Harry wanting her for her claim of the North.

[sweetsunray]

Fantastic work! I've seldom been that convinced by a very specific prediction. I think the last time was when I read about Stannis's "Battle on the ice" and that was some time ago.

So the question would be, who does Sansa end up with once the Vale has fallen? Timett or Shadrich? There are arguments for both, and I can't make up my mind.

Thank you Yup, there are arguments for both. I would wish it were Timett, but I fear Shadrich has a better chance of it. 40-60. Yohn Royce seems to be no option, unfortunately.

[Lord Varys]

I'd agree that an earthquake would destroy the Eyrie, of course. But then, avalanches would do just that, too. The Eyrie doesn't sit on top of the Giant's Lance, after all.

But I honestly don't know how high the risk is that massive stone castles are damaged or destroyed by avalanches, and we really don't know how susceptible the land around the Giant's Lance is to this kind of thing. The Valemen are effectively mountain dwellers. Just as the average guy living in the Alps is smart enough to build his villages not in a region with a high avalanche risk, the Lords of the Vale would have done the same thing.

I don't see much likelihood for huge earthquake in the Vale. The idea that the Horn of Joramun will cause earthquakes everywhere doesn't sound right to me. And if an earthquake is going to destroy a structure it will obviously be the Wall for plot reasons.

The mountain clans are nuisances, not threats. And with Shagga being listed as being in the Kingswood in the AFfC appendix it is quite clear that he is still there. Chances are that he would have no inclination to return to the mountains in winter if it is a lot warmer (and more fun) in the Kingswood. Not to mention that he might not even be able to. The Riverlands are war-torn, and the passes are closed now. Being a clansman doesn't mean you can walk on snow.

I could see the clansmen becoming a danger in alliance with other factions or at the very end of the story or in a scenario in which the Lords of the Vale sent most or nearly all of their strength away. But even then they wouldn't be any threat to the castles in the Vale. All they could do is attack people on the road or defenseless villages.

In general I'd not use vague notions as evidence for foreshadowing, especially not stuff from AGoT. This story grew and changed during the writing process, and a lot of this early stuff - if it was ever intended as foreshadowing - did not come to pass.

[sweetsunray]

I'd agree that an earthquake would destroy the Eyrie, of course. But then, avalanches would do just that, too. The Eyrie doesn't sit on top of the Giant's Lance, after all.

But I honestly don't know how high the risk is that massive stone castles are damaged or destroyed by avalanches, and we really don't know how susceptible the land around the Giant's Lance is to this kind of thing. The Valemen are effectively mountain dwellers. Just as the average guy living in the Alps is smart enough to build his villages not in a region with a high avalanche risk, the Lords of the Vale would have done the same thing.

I don't see much likelihood for huge earthquake in the Vale. The idea that the Horn of Joramun will cause earthquakes everywhere doesn't sound right to me. And if an earthquake is going to destroy a structure it will obviously be the Wall for plot reasons.

The mountain clans are nuisances, not threats. And with Shagga being listed as being in the Kingswood in the AFfC appendix it is quite clear that he is still there. Chances are that he would have no inclination to return to the mountains in winter if it is a lot warmer (and more fun) in the Kingswood. Not to mention that he might not even be able to. The Riverlands are war-torn, and the passes are closed now. Being a clansman doesn't mean you can walk on snow.

I could see the clansmen becoming a danger in alliance with other factions or at the very end of the story or in a scenario in which the Lords of the Vale sent most or nearly all of their strength away. But even then they wouldn't be any threat to the castles in the Vale. All they could do is attack people on the road or defenseless villages.

In general I'd not use vague notions as evidence for foreshadowing, especially not stuff from AGoT. This story grew and changed during the writing process, and a lot of this early stuff - if it was ever intended as foreshadowing - did not come to pass.

To the last - George has said that aGoT contains the most clues. And evidently I have not solely relied on aGoT foreshadowing alone.

You've completely ignored my answer regarding the mountain clans, both in the OP and in my answer to the piont you raised (and you weren't the first who raised it, and so has been already answered). Tyrion has 300 men of the mountain clans, while there are 3000. So, he only took a faction with him. Half of those died, so that left him 150. Shagga thus remains in the Kingswood with what 50-100 men? Shagga and those 50-100 men are not the sole warriors of his clan. Most remained, but somehow still are reported to have gotten better steel. So, give or take, that implies 2800 mountain clan warriors. And the fiercest of those isn't Shagga and his 50 good men, but Timett and the Burned Men, who have definitely returned. 

The earthquake/avalanche comment: you said that the Eyrie and Gates of the Moon have shown to have endured the test of time. I replied that the test of time is relative: evidently no earthquakes. I have also explained there are 3 different types of avalanches. If you fail to recognize what 10000 tons racing at 300 mph can do, here's a comparison. You know what a wrecking ball is used for yes? To demolish buildings. Wrecking balls range from about 450 kg  to 5,400 kg. 10,000 tons == 10,000,000 kg. How many wrecking balls are that? About 1800 giant wrecking balls. And wrecking balls aren't let loose at 300 mph either. That's the type of possible damage you're looking at.

As for the argument that mountain people wouldn't build a village in an area with avalanche risk... Villages are wrecked in the Alps, the Pyrenees and Sierras in the US by avalanches, even in the 21st century. Maybe you missed the news of the avalanche in Nepal this year or Afghanistan? Let's also not forget all those numerous "stupid" people building villages and cities at the foot of a volcano in the real world. It's at the bottom of the steepest, highest mountain of Westeros. With the right circumstances, yes, a deadly avalanche can come racing down from it, even though it may be the first time it does that in thousands of years, and may not happen again for a thousand of years after. 

Here's a list of "notable avalanches" since early 20th century: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_avalanches

In the 70s an earthquake combined with an avalanche resulted in 20000 deaths in Peru. 

If you check out some of those recent historical deadly avalanches, you may notice that some are tied to earthquakes, others are not. The latter are conditions of fast and heavy snowfall with then either a snowstorm following or a sudden rise in temperature, and each leading to unstable snowpack conditions. So, it doesn't need to be an earthquake. But Sweetrobin's passage that it began with tremors and only slightly shaking in the snow castle scene does suggest it will be in combination with an earthquake.

[sweetsunray]

Nevets, it's not that I understand your dislike to the avalanche scenario. Basically, it seems to say that LF can only be stopped because of a natural disaster that is unprecedented in Vale history. Of course that is not entirely true, because the complete scenario is not the avalanche alone. It does have a series of people's choices included in it, such as the Burned Men and both Vale heirs dying prematurely because of their own folly, action and reaction. On the other hand, a natural disaster is actually the sole thing that fits with messing up LF's plans. He regards himself as the master of chaos, in creating it and in adapting to it. He thrives on chaos. He is prepared for human chaos. He is however, unprepared for nature's chaos. Keeping the Vale forces aside, keeping the food storages... he did all that for his moment of glory when chaos of war and the game has destroyed all other players - to come out and twirl his moustachios and say "Haha! Fooled you all! Now that you spent all your armies and resources, it's my turn!". And so, against his game, unpredictable chaos he cannot learn from spies and reports nor manipulate is a fitting scheme. In the end, it will not be the avalanche that will end his game... it's only what starts an avalanche of events beyond his control, and most likely a confrontation between Sansa and himself. I think she will accuse him of killing her aunt, while she already came out and reclaimed her identity of Sansa Stark publically and putting LF's teaching on how tears and sounding frightened can convince others of her innocense to good use.

Natural disasters have been mentioned in the histories though: the Doom of Valyrie, the Hammer of the Waters, the breaking of the arm, water attacking Pyke. Sure all those disasters have been claimed in legend to have been caused by CotF, green men, angry gods, FM, etc... but either that's true through gigantic magic use, or it's fanciful legend building. So, either magic causes a natural disaster, or a natural disaster is claimed to have a magical cause; And a one time natural disaster in the Vale either caused by magic, or later in time ascribed to be caused by magic is not impossible. Aside from Lysa's hubris how safe the mountains are, how protective they are, even the names of the waygate castles along the path hint at natural disaster - from top to bottom 'sky', 'snow' and 'stone', aka from the sky comes snow and stone. Alyssa's Tears have to come down too. The destruction of castles as big as "children's toys" and stepping on people the size of ants.

I agree though that an avalanche has not been mentioned much yet. I don't see why it would as it is to happen quite late in the game. But I'd read the chapters in tWoW very carefully for more foreshadowing of this, and not necessarily in Sansa's pov except for a tourney, but in other arcs. Aside from the avalanche used in relation to Gregor the Mountain, here are the other 'avalanche' references

Dawn was breaking in the east as Mya Stone hallooed for the guards, and the gates opened before them. Inside the walls there was only a series of ramps and a great tumble of boulders and stones of all sizes. No doubt it would be the easiest thing in the world to begin an avalanche from here [Sky]. (aGoT, Catelyn VI)

This one I should add to the essay, because it mentions an avalanche on the Giant's Lance at the waygate Sky in Catelyn's chapter where she sees all those "horned moons".

Tyrion lurched to his feet, driving his head into the horse's belly. The animal gave a hideous scream and reared. It tried to twist away from the agony, a shower of blood and viscera poured down over Tyrion's face, and the horse fell like an avalanche. (aGoT, Tyrion VIII)

This is the scene where Tyrion fights at the Green Fork. He's fleading the Mountain Clans and he wears a Horned helm. All the blood on his face is marking him not as dead, but as the causation of a lot of blood and guts being spilled. And his abduction is also parelled with abductions of (moon) maidens. Oh, and we have an avalanche mentioned in a scene with mountain clans and "horns" and blood.

Small wonder Varys did not want me to climb the bloody ladder, Tyrion thought, smiling in the dark. Little birds indeed.

He came to the third door and fumbled about for a long time before his fingers brushed a small iron hook set between two stones. When he pulled down on it, there was a soft rumble that sounded loud as an avalanche in the stillness, and a square of dull orange light opened a foot to his left.

The hearth! He almost laughed. The fireplace was full of hot ash, and a black log with a hot orange heart burning within. He edged past gingerly, taking quick steps so as not to burn his boots, the warm cinders crunching softly under his heels. (aSoS, Tyrion XI)

A scene where Tyrion enters the Hand's Tower and his old room, now his father's room. Bloody ladder/means of ascent, little bird (what Sandor calls Sansa), the third door (Sky), an avalanche, and a burngin fire (Burned Men).

[Biter] fell on her like an avalanche of wet wool and milk-white flesh, lifting her off her feet and slamming her down into the ground. She landed in a puddle with a splash that sent water up her nose and into her eyes. All the air was driven out of her, and her head snapped down against some half-buried stone with a crack. "No," was all that she had time to say before he fell on top of her, his weight driving her deeper into the mud. One of his hands was in her hair, pulling her head back. The other groped for her throat. Oathkeeper was gone, torn from her grasp. She had only her hands to fight him off, but when she slammed a fist into his face it was like punching a ball of wet white dough. (aFfC, Brienne VII)

Here George describes the fight between Biter and Brienne as an avalanche. He's not just mentioning an avalanche, but if Biter was an actual avalanche, Brienne would have the same experience - being slammed into the ground, air cut off, head snapping, the weight on top of you, and you can slam all you want against it, it won't budge. Brienne's looking for Sansa, a maiden, and a giantess of a woman.

"Hodor, stop," said Bran. "Hodor. Wait." Something was wrong. Summer smelled it, and so did he. Something bad. Something close. "Hodor, no, go back."

Coldhands was still climbing, and Hodor wanted to keep up. "Hodor, hodor, hodor," he grumbled loudly, to drown out Bran's complaints. His breathing had grown labored. Pale mist filled the air. He took a step, then another. The snow was almost waist deep and the slope was very steep. Hodor was leaning forward, grasping at rocks and trees with his hands as he climbed. Another step. Another. The snow Hodor disturbed slid downhill, starting a small avalanche behind them.

Sixty yards. Bran craned himself sideways to better see the cave. Then he saw something else. "A fire!" In the little cleft between the weirwood trees was a flickering glow, a ruddy light calling through the gathering gloom. "Look, someone—"

Hodor screamed. He twisted, stumbled, fell.

Bran felt the world slide sideways as the big stableboy spun violently around. A jarring impact drove the breath from him. His mouth was full of blood and Hodor was thrashing and rolling, crushing the crippled boy beneath him.

Something has hold of his leg. For half a heartbeat Bran thought maybe a root had gotten tangled round his ankle … until the root moved. A hand, he saw, as the rest of the wight came bursting from beneath the snow.(aDwD, Bran II)

Hodor is one of those other human giants (only Gregor towers over him), as well as a simple minded "boy", not listening to Bran who tells him to stop and to come back. Waist deep snow and steep slope. Hodor disturbs the snow and an avalanche follows. Bran sees a "fire" through the "gloom". Then the giant screams, falls, and takes Bran with him, knocking the breath out of him, trashing, rolling, crushing the "boy". Bran has many parallels to Sweetrobin: close in age (or at least SR is of the same age as Bran was when he fell), both the favorite of their mothers who are sisters, flying (one wants to, but will never get to; one gets to, but would love to walk again), a fascination for knights, one is sick while the other is crippled. And here we see Bran being taken down by a giant - Hodor - who falls because of a snowslide and avalanche. Hmmm I definitely should put this one in the essay as well.

 

[Seams]

These are great follow-up passages to support the OP. Nice work.

[Lord Varys]

sweetsunray,

well, I ignored the part about the strength of the clansmen because if there are truly only 3,000 clansmen warriors then they simply cannot possibly become a threat to the Vale unless they suddenly armed by machine guns. The Vale can field about 30,000 men, after all. Assuming the Vale weakens itself by sending troops away, the clansmen could become a nuisance and a danger for travelers, but they could not possibly hope to conquer the Vale. I thought that much was self-evident.

George put a lot of clues to actual mysteries and future plot developments into AGoT, yes, but only to stuff he has already envisioned in detail back when he wrote that book. Do you really assume that the details of Sansa's later plot in the Vale were already in his head at that time?

I don't think so.

Earthquakes are an entirely different matter. They are game changers, especially if they occur very infrequently. Do earthquakes even occur naturally in Martinworld? I do not know. But I don't believe a magical earthquake is going to hit the Vale in the near future, I think if such a thing happens it will hit the Wall.

As to the avalanche starting thing from Sky:

Technically this could also refer to a snowy avalanche but considering that those are protective measures against an attack, one assumes that those stones are supposed to cause an avalanche containing stones and rocks. The idea that anyone would try to conquer the Eyrie in winter (and only in winter there is snow in the reaches beneath Sky) doesn't make any sense at all because the Arryns are not residing at the Eyrie in winter. Anyone attacking them in winter would attack the Gates of the Moon.

[sweetsunray]

sweetsunray,

well, I ignored the part about the strength of the clansmen because if there are truly only 3,000 clansmen warriors then they simply cannot possibly become a threat to the Vale unless they suddenly armed by machine guns. The Vale can field about 30,000 men, after all. Assuming the Vale weakens itself by sending troops away, the clansmen could become a nuisance and a danger for travelers, but they could not possibly hope to conquer the Vale. I thought that much was self-evident.

George put a lot of clues to actual mysteries and future plot developments into AGoT, yes, but only to stuff he has already envisioned in detail back when he wrote that book. Do you really assume that the details of Sansa's later plot in the Vale were already in his head at that time?

I don't think so.

Earthquakes are an entirely different matter. They are game changers, especially if they occur very infrequently. Do earthquakes even occur naturally in Martinworld? I do not know. But I don't believe a magical earthquake is going to hit the Vale in the near future, I think if such a thing happens it will hit the Wall.

As to the avalanche starting thing from Sky:

Technically this could also refer to a snowy avalanche but considering that those are protective measures against an attack, one assumes that those stones are supposed to cause an avalanche containing stones and rocks. The idea that anyone would try to conquer the Eyrie in winter (and only in winter there is snow in the reaches beneath Sky) doesn't make any sense at all because the Arryns are not residing at the Eyrie in winter. Anyone attacking them in winter would attack the Gates of the Moon.

Well, I did not say that the Mountain Clans will rule the totality of the Vale. That indeed is impossible. What I said is that they'll conquer the Bloody Gate and mop up the remainder of survivors at the Gate of the Moon.

Nor did I ever claim there would be an attack at the Eyrie. Did you read my OP? I know it's lengthy, but I specifically point out that since it's winter the Eyrie is abandoned and of no importance to the Vale arc, but that the Gates of the Moon is the winter residence. As for not attacking in winter: the times that mountain clans have attacked the Gates of the Moon (Eyrie or no Eyrie in existence) was during winter time. So, your last paragraph simply reiterates what I already laid out in the OP.

I otherwise ignored the Eyrie in the OP, for the cited reasons. Though when asked I confirmed it will be taken down along with the avalanche, because the description of the Eyrie maps with Whitewalls... the difference is that Eyrie is blue veined marble (Tarth), and Whitewalls golden veined marble (Vale). Both feature weirwood too, but in different construction objects. Whitewalls was taken down brick by brick and the soil salted. Nothing can grow there anymore. Sansa notes beforehand that nothing of great consequence can grow at the Eyrie.

Why would one assume those waygates would cause an avalanche? I certainly said nothing like it. All I said is that the names of the waygates follow the order sky - snow - stone. An avalanche comes from the sky. An avalanche's main component is snow. A deadly avalanche that reaches far carries snapped of trees and dislodged stone with them. So, an avalanche that comes down a mountain all the way is a canon of snow and trees and rocks. Add the Eyrie dropping 600 feet from the shoulder of the Giant's Lance and you get the picture.

Now the Vale might even be able to field 40k-45k soldiers, but they never used that amount of soldiers to rid the Mountains of the Moon from the mountain clans. I don't see why Yohn Royce will suddenly rally all the forces he can rally to chase mountain clans away from a site that has turned to rubble. The result will be that the mountain clans will rule the whole mountain range from the Riverlands as far as the start of the valley of the Vale (the western half of the Vale), while Yohn Royce will become master of the valley areas east of the Gates, and he's going to leave the Mountain Clans to themselves.

I don't believe that George had everything minutely planned out of every part of the plot. But I am sure that the avalanche + mountain clans disaster for House Arryn was something he had already planned out. When I write, I too am more of a gardener than an architect... a meandering road of ideas that grow out of the writing and eventually you pack inside a parallel to some poetic proze writing you did earlier without even the explicit intent of foreshadowing at the time. That said, even as a gardener you can have pivotal plot moments ahead of time - a goalpost scene or event. And imo George always planned to have Sansa taken to the Vale. And those goalpost plot moments can actually be a very concrete event (or series of events) and scene in your mind. The avalanche is exactly the type of scene that fits a goalpost moment for an author. It's too immense and much of a visual to not have struck his mind, like the finding of the wolves. And he wrote Catelyn's journey to the Eyrie with that scene in mind already. The name of that mountain is the clearest evidence for it, as are the paragraphs about the Horned Moon at the moat + path and the final paragraph of an avalanche happening from Sky's height. The name Giant's Lance is an odd name for a mountain. A mountain doesn't look like a lance. And often mountains have either personal names or a character name. The exact particulars of piecing the puzzle together may not have been concrete (like LF's death, or even the Burned Men). And then as he wrote Tyrion's POV regarding the Vale, the mountain clans became an added idea... He then grafted the Burned Men to work in the fire  and new armor reference, which was probably originally meant as a AA alusion in relation to the Long Night. But that avalanche was a goalpost vision and he created the Eyrie, the Vale, the Giant's Lance to fit that idea.

[FuzzyJAM]

Haven't finished reading your analysis just yet so forgive me if this is stupid, but I was wondering if you think it might be significant that the King Who Knelt is named after the peak of mountain?  Torrhen Stark - tor means mountain top.  

Could there be an echo where the mountain top "knelt" (fell), and (f)Aegon Targaryen made (Sansa) Stark a lord (lady) of his allegiance?  Or something like that, I don't know where I'm going with this. . . 

[Scorpion92]

Hey sweetsunray, I am really intrigued by the idea of mountain clans, First Men tribes, splitting the Vale with House Royce of Runestone, another ancient Vale line of First Men (who intermarried with Andals,but still).

Since Timmett is foreshadowed to take over thr Vale, maybe there is a chance for him to marry Yohn Royce's daughter, the one currently married to Mychel Redfort? I don't think Mychel is long for this world and he might either in the tournament or the avalanche as you propose.

It will unite the mountain clans with the survivors of the avalance and the most First Men noble house of the Vale. 

[sweetsunray]

Hey sweetsunray, I am really intrigued by the idea of mountain clans, First Men tribes, splitting the Vale with House Royce of Runestone, another ancient Vale line of First Men (who intermarried with Andals,but still).

Since Timmett is foreshadowed to take over thr Vale, maybe there is a chance for him to marry Yohn Royce's daughter, the one currently married to Mychel Redfort? I don't think Mychel is long for this world and he might either in the tournament or the avalanche as you propose.

It will unite the mountain clans with the survivors of the avalance and the most First Men noble house of the Vale. 

Hadn't considered that yet, but not without possibilities. Yes, I think Mychel will be one of those who falls.

The Mya Stone tomboy - Mychel Redfort backstory and Lothor's interest in Mya Stone has that Nibelingenlied feel about it. Sigurd falls for ex-Valkyrie turned shieldmaiden Byrnhilde, promises to wed her, but ends up marrying another; then Sigurd helps another man in winning Brynhilde by wearing his armor and pretending to be the other man who's besotted with Brynhilde. When Brynhilde finds out, she reveals her husband that Sigurd took his liberties with her, and Sigurd ends up dead.