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(Spoilers All) Another look at TWOW Prologue


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Spoilers ahead!

 

Hello all! I’ve been following the forums for a while and I’ve finally built up the courage to post an amazing theory that will blow everyone’s minds and change the way we look at the books as we know it...

….or not, actually I was just wanted to analyze and then speculate rampantly on the few things known about the prologue for WINDS. At Comic Conn in 2014 GRRM said that Jeyne Westerling would make an appearance in the prologue of TWOW. This begs the questions,

 

“When will the prologue take place?”

or better yet,

“Where will the prologue take place?”

 

When we last saw Jeyne she was being taken to Casterly Rock along with the Frey captives from the Red Wedding, her relatives, 400 Lannister guardsmen led by Ser Forley Prester, and whoever else I’m forgetting. Now some believe that the prologue will take place in Casterly Rock because GRRM said we may see many new locations in WINDS or ADOS such as the Rock and Highgarden. However, I am skeptical that the Rock will be the location of the prologue as Martin said that if we didn’t see The Rock or Highgarden in TWOW then we would for sure in ADOS. This leads me to believe that these locations are part of a characters arc and whether or not they are included depends on which book the POV chapters are included in.

I believe that the prologue will instead be an ambush on the convoy to free the prisoners whilst it is en route to The Rock. I believe some of the events which unfold in Winterfell support this speculation.

In AFFC the brotherhood has established an ‘inn’ for orphans. Many believe this was Lady Stoneheart’s plan to find her daughter Arya, who was in the Riverlands when last the BWB had seen her. With this in mind, it only makes sense that LSH would send an agent to Winterfell when word reached that Ramsay Bolton (Snow) was to marry Arya. I believe this agent is Harwin, the hooded man in Winterfell. I’ve also heard theories that put Hallis Mollen as the hooded man. Though this is also plausible I believe Hal Mollen is still with LSH in the Riverlands. I digress.

According The Grand Northern Conspiracy, Some of the Northern lords allied with the Boltons in Winterfell are hesitant to join the conspiracy out of fear for their relatives, who are Frey prisoners. However, the author of TGNC believes these fears are alleviated by Wyman Manderly who has received information from the hooded man in Winterfell, Harwin, about the impending rescue attempt. An example of this is Whoresbane Umber. Lady Dustin at one point says to a Frey

“Lord Wyman is not the only man who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them."

Furthermore, we later see Whoresbane is portrayed as one of the snowmen seen on top of the walls of Winterfell. According to TGNC the snowmen represent those conspiring against the Boltons/Freys and include Whoresbane, Lady Dustin, Lord Manderly, Harwod Stout, as well as others who are not mentioned in the text. The theory goes that Harwin informed Manderly of the planned attack, who then shared the information with those hesitant to jump aboard the conspiracy train.

It seems that Whoresbane has either decided to act without fear of repercussions against the Greatjon or else has received information about a plan to get the Greatjon released.

In AFFC Lady Stoneheart retreated into The Neck after killing Ryman Frey. Whilst there, I believe she was contacted by the Crannogmen and eventually 'Howlin Howland' Reed. Now Lady Stoneheart is no stranger to ambush’s as seen at the end of ASOS where she hangs Merret Frey or the middle of AFFC when she hangs Ryman Frey. She is blessed with extremely good intelligence in all of these cases thanks to Tom of Sevenstreams, a spy in the Frey ranks. At the end of AFFC, Tom stations himself at Riverrun, where the prisoners are leaving from.

The Crannogmen are known as being exceptionally good at guerrilla tactics, as witnessed by Victorian at Moat Cailin, and could make up the bulk of the attacking force in addition to The Brotherhood without Banners and any Red Wedding Survivors who sought refuge in The Neck. The known captives are: Marq Piper, Greatjon Umber, Jeyne Westerling, Edumure Tully, and many others I’m sure but this was all I could find.

What do you guys think? Will this be the prologue and if it is will the attack be successful? Or do you have an alternative theory for the prologue?

TLDR LSH attempts to rescue the Red Wedding prisoners to alleviate fears of reprisal against Northern houses conspiring against boltons/freys

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Very interesting thoughts, my only problem with it are LS' capabilities. With amount of time she was dead and her clear burning desire for revenge, I find it unlikely that her tactics go beyond basic ambushes to kill the people responsible for the RW and some searching for her daughters. Joining the GNC, partnering with Reed and rescuing prisoners just seems to much for a reanimated corpse intent on revenge.

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Very interesting theory.I too believe the prologue will take place in the Riverlands, LSH will appear too and I have never thought of Harwin being the Hooded Man. What I find troublesome for your theory is that Stoneheart is not as shrewd as Catelyn.She is driven mostly by revenge. I find more possible that she heard the rumors about Arya Stark going to Winterfell and sent an agent to see if it is trully her and take her. If Harwin informed the Northern lords that Ramsey married a fake Arya, it was his initiative.

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52 minutes ago, King Endymion Targaryen said:

 What I find troublesome for your theory is that Stoneheart is not as shrewd as Catelyn.

I'm a huge fan of the Grand Northern Conspiracy. Here's an excerpt from Brienne VIII from AFFC used in TGNC part two.

A trestle table had been set up across the cave, in a cleft in the rock. Behind it sat a woman all in grey, cloaked and hooded. In her hands was a crown, a bronze circlet ringed by iron swords. She was studying it, her fingers stroking the blades as if to test their sharpness. Her eyes glimmered under her hood. (Brienne VIII, AFFC)

I  agree, LSH was (and still is) motivated by grief and revenge. However, from the excerpt, it appears as if LSH is deep in thought, Some believe that she is remembering more from her former life. She remembers Briennes vow. She remembers going through Hag's mire while enroute to the twins. She remembers her daughters.

 Setting up an 'inn for orphans' in the Riverlands to find her daughter  is an extremely shrewd move. Sending Tom of Sevenstreams (someone who the Tully's despise) to be a Frey spy is a shrewd move.

The author of the grand northern conspiracy also adds about LSH:

Is there reason in Lady Stoneheart’s madness? Perhaps. Beric Dondarrion was capable of it, but UnCat was far further gone when revived and mad with grief at the moment of death besides. OTOH, she’s cognizant enough to lead the BWB, to recognize her foes and hold Brienne to her promise of service, however cruelly done.

Here is the link to part two of TGNC for the text I've been referencing.

http://asoiafuniversity.tumblr.com/post/52826780976/the-grand-northern-conspiracy-part-2

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Main problem with this is that the Frey prisoners from the Red Wedding are not heading to CR with Jeyne and Edmure, they were ordered to Kings Landing and we have no information that this is being done.  Even if we assume it is, it is a different convoy all together.  The RW prisoners were at the Twins, Jeyne left from Riverrun.

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27 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Main problem with this is that the Frey prisoners from the Red Wedding are not heading to CR with Jeyne and Edmure, they were ordered to Kings Landing and we have no information that this is being done.  Even if we assume it is, it is a different convoy all together.  The RW prisoners were at the Twins, Jeyne left from Riverrun.

That is a good point. Kinda puts a damper on my prediction. On the plus side, this probably increases the chances of a successful rescue of the prisoners (if they're brought to Kings Landing) as it would be difficult to ambush the four hundred lannister guardsmen en route to the Rock.

What does this mean for the prologue? Maybe it is in Casterly Rock. Or maybe there is two rescue attempts. I have no idea. 

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3 hours ago, The Wolf and the Wall said:

That is a good point. Kinda puts a damper on my prediction. On the plus side, this probably increases the chances of a successful rescue of the prisoners (if they're brought to Kings Landing) as it would be difficult to ambush the four hundred lannister guardsmen en route to the Rock.

What does this mean for the prologue? Maybe it is in Casterly Rock. Or maybe there is two rescue attempts. I have no idea. 

Tom O Sevens still definitely heard Jaime order the Freys to send their prisoners to KL, however since the party of Freys he told this to were ambushed, the order may have never even arrived.  If Walder hears that Jaime, the man who ordered it has now gone missing, I feel he is even less likely to carry it out.

That being said, none of that changes the prologue because that includes Jeyne Westerling, and her trip from RR to CR is definitely in progress as we saw them leave.  Since long before we knew Jeyne was in the prologue I argued that it was very impractical for them to be rescued.  400 men is a lot and Jaime ordered a dozen or so to be bowman whose job it was to kill Edmure in the event of any attack on the party.  RR is also not that far from the Golden Tooth and the safety of the Westerlands where they would in all likelihood get even more men for the rest of their journey, and the timeline would seem to suggest that since the capital has heard of Jaime going missing which followed him going from Riverrun to the Blackwood castle, that the capital would also have heard if the party of 400 had not reached the Golden Tooth.

With all that in mind, the POV of the prologue always dies, and Jeyne Westerling is in it, which means someone from that party or a castle they stop at along the way is going to die, and we should be learning something meaningful.  An attack on the caravan, with Edmure or Jeyne or her mother as the POV could settle some things and paint the picture for the Riverlands overthrowing the Lannisters.  Edmure dying really changes the inheritance order of Riverrun and Harrenhall as it would all technically go to Bran who is thought to be dead.  In the situation we have currently, LF may want to press Sansa's claim, and we could learn for sure how involved the Westerlings were in plotting with Tywin from the start.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Awesome post.
I don't think LS could make up such an elaborate plan (although she could definitely think of a simpler variant of it), but what I like the least is the idea of her actually saving people, and not for her children immediate benefit. The only reason why I could think of her attacking the Lannisters to save Jeyne and Edmure is the girl being pregnant (which is still a possibility, although I don't believe that), but still the BWB doesn't have the slightest bit of the strength they'd need to attack 400 armed men and rescue E&J fast enough to not having them killed, and why should she bother saving her son's companions, who she never liked even before the RW?
But I agree that LS might be plotting something bigger than the simple Frey hanging, she can be as bad a character as Martin had us believe in AFFC, and freeing the Lannister's most valuable hostages could be a smart move. You made me impatient of reading what LS's going to do, which I wasn't since that Brienne chapter, so that's saying something!
Also, I find the idea of Harwin being the Hooded Man very intriguing, he'd be the perfect spy.

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On February 6, 2016 at 3:57 PM, The Egg said:

Awesome post.
I don't think LS could make up such an elaborate plan (although she could definitely think of a simpler variant of it), but what I like the least is the idea of her actually saving people, and not for her children immediate benefit. The only reason why I could think of her attacking the Lannisters to save Jeyne and Edmure is the girl being pregnant (which is still a possibility, although I don't believe that), but still the BWB doesn't have the slightest bit of the strength they'd need to attack 400 armed men and rescue E&J fast enough to not having them killed, and why should she bother saving her son's companions, who she never liked even before the RW?
But I agree that LS might be plotting something bigger than the simple Frey hanging, she can be as bad a character as Martin had us believe in AFFC, and freeing the Lannister's most valuable hostages could be a smart move. You made me impatient of reading what LS's going to do, which I wasn't since that Brienne chapter, so that's saying something!
Also, I find the idea of Harwin being the Hooded Man very intriguing, he'd be the perfect spy.

There is plenty of terrain which would force a party of 400 to be below while a party of 50 to 100 could pick off with arrows 400 men on horseback.. Particularly if they are up far enough in or shooting from behind trees.

As the OP showed, LS is clearly plotting and planning or the BwoB would not follow her.. Also she let the Brother go on his way and sent Brienne to lure Jaime to her. That takes planning. As does the inn as refuge for lost children as LS looks to find Sansa and Arya.

She'd want to free anyone who would help her to her ultimate goal.--destruction of the Houses Frey, Lannister  and Bolton.. Or who could help find her daughters.

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