Best explanations of Varys and Littlefinger? Motives, activities etc.

[OuttaOldtown]

12 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Thanks, I seemed to remember it the other way around! 

Easy to mix it up. Varys and Illyrio are long term thinkers, we see in later books that when things don't go as planned they make adjustments. My guess for why he's want to 'make haste' is because a destabilized Seven Kingdoms makes it ripe for fAegon's invasion.. 

[OuttaOldtown]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The general idea is that Ser Shadrich might be a former little bird (or perhaps even a little mouse) in Varys' service who has been sent as an agent to the Vale to keep an eye on Littlefinger and Sansa and to influence events there in a way that favor Varys and Illyrio's plans.

It is not just Shadrich's banner depicting a mouse but also the moment in Alayne 1 that indicates that somebody might have taken a look at Littlefinger's papers. She enters his chamber with the window open and the papers in disarray which she attributes to the wind. But we do know that the little mice back in Pentos were trained to climb through windows and the like to read important papers and memorize their contents.

If there is anything to that then the chances are pretty good that the Vale will come to conclusion to back or declare for Prince Aegon. Especially if Shadrich finds ways to feed Sansa such an idea who then might force Littlefinger to see things her way.

But even without Shadrich - a Targaryen restoration should be a very welcome idea for Sansa in any possible scenario. It would mean the end of the Lannister-Tyrell regime and the end of King Tommen, meaning that she would have no reason to be afraid of them again. Some schemes to install her as Lady of Winterfell are well and good but would not protect her from Lannister repercussions in the long run should King Tommen remain on the throne. She is accused of being complicit in the murder of King Joffrey, and such a crime is not just going to be forgiven or forgotten. Not while kings of the Lannister-Baratheon dynasty still sit on the Iron Throne.

I buy this as a possible future scenario..

[Little Scribe of Naath]

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

[snipped for length]

Nice writeup, Lord Varys.

It would be most interesting to find out if LF and Varys actually worked together in AGOT. 

I agree, most probably Ser Shadrich is a Varys agent. What do you make of him offering Brienne to tag along then?

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Nice writeup, Lord Varys.

It would be most interesting to find out if LF and Varys actually worked together in AGOT.

George could shed some light on that in the future. Stannis is still alive and he could talk to Theon or somebody else how he figured out that Robert's children weren't his. Not sure whether that's going to happen, though.

But in general we should not make such a fuzz about Varys wondering what Littlefinger is up to in AGoT. That has to be seen in context, too. At this point it was virtually impossible to predict which faction Littlefinger would join/back up should King Robert die. I'm not even sure Littlefinger himself knew that when Varys and Illyrio had their little conversation.

Littlefinger had Robert's ear, apparently, was on very good footing with Ned and Cat, got along splendidly with both Renly and Cersei, had a good relationship with Joffrey, and was in secret alliance/marriage pact with Lysa Arryn. Pretty difficult to figure out which road he'll take.

7 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I agree, most probably Ser Shadrich is a Varys agent. What do you make of him offering Brienne to tag along then?

That might just be a hint to the reader who Shadrich might be.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If that was the case it would be very odd for him to end up as a prisoner down there. Especially considering that he should have been able to impersonate people who actually have access to the dungeons.

The dagger lie has to be seen in context. There are hints that Varys and Littlefinger might have worked together murdering Jon Arryn. After all, if Varys/Illyrio don't want things to explode before they are ready then it would have been most unfortunate for their plans if Jon Arryn had actually told Robert the truth about Cersei's children.

In fact, it might be that Stannis became suspicious all by himself, then told Jon Arryn about his suspicions. Varys then learned about that the way he does told Littlefinger about it (feigning that his interest was in saving both their necks considering that Stannis as Hand or heir presumptive/next king could mean both their ends) who then arranged for Lysa to poison her husband.

Varys might even have been aware of the letter Littlefinger had Lysa write to Cat as to deflect suspicions away from Lysa, Littlefinger, and himself. The fact that Varys actually turns to Littlefinger after he learns of Cat's presence and is subsequently present when they discuss things is a strong hint in that direction. As is Illyrio's hint that Varys may have been behind the murder of Jon Arryn.

You have to keep in mind that the dagger lie is not necessarily all that grievous or smart a misdirection. Especially in light of the fact that Varys must at once have realized that said dagger actually belonged to King Robert by the time it was used in an attempt on the life of Bran and Catelyn. Blaming Tyrion for the deed was a much better idea than actually putting the idea in Catelyn's head that King Robert himself wanted to kill her and her son.

The general idea is that Ser Shadrich might be a former little bird (or perhaps even a little mouse) in Varys' service who has been sent as an agent to the Vale to keep an eye on Littlefinger and Sansa and to influence events there in a way that favor Varys and Illyrio's plans.

It is not just Shadrich's banner depicting a mouse but also the moment in Alayne 1 that

Spoiler

indicates that somebody might have taken a look at Littlefinger's papers. She enters his chamber with the window open and the papers in disarray which she attributes to the wind.

But we do know that the little mice back in Pentos were trained to climb through windows and the like to read important papers and memorize their contents.

If there is anything to that then the chances are pretty good that the Vale will come to conclusion to back or declare for Prince Aegon. Especially if Shadrich finds ways to feed Sansa such an idea who then might force Littlefinger to see things her way.

But even without Shadrich - a Targaryen restoration should be a very welcome idea for Sansa in any possible scenario. It would mean the end of the Lannister-Tyrell regime and the end of King Tommen, meaning that she would have no reason to be afraid of them again. Some schemes to install her as Lady of Winterfell are well and good but would not protect her from Lannister repercussions in the long run should King Tommen remain on the throne. She is accused of being complicit in the murder of King Joffrey, and such a crime is not just going to be forgiven or forgotten. Not while kings of the Lannister-Baratheon dynasty still sit on the Iron Throne.

I agree with @Lord Varys about Ser Shadrich. Varys must at least suspect that Petyr arranged for Sansa’s escape, and the mounce connection, although tenuous, could be a hint in that direction...

Quote

"Ser Shadrich of the Shady Glen. Some call me the Mad Mouse."

Brienne I, Feast 4

Quote

 

"In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. In Pentos his accent marked him, and once he was known for a eunuch he was despised and beaten. Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city's footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they'd stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice."

"In King's Landing he kept little birds."

"Mice, we called them then. The older thieves were fools who thought no further than turning a night's plunder into wine. Varys preferred orphan boys and young girls. He chose the smallest, the ones who were quick and quiet, and taught them to climb walls and slip down chimneys. He taught them to read as well. We left the gold and gems for common thieves. Instead our mice stole letters, ledgers, charts … later, they would read them and leave them where they lay. Secrets are worth more than silver or sapphires, Varys claimed. Just so. I grew so respectable that a cousin of the Prince of Pentos let me wed his maiden daughter, whilst whispers of a certain eunuch's talents crossed the narrow sea and reached the ears of a certain king. A very anxious king, who did not wholly trust his son, nor his wife, nor his Hand, a friend of his youth who had grown arrogant and overproud. I do believe that you know the rest of this tale, is that not so?"

 

Tyrion II, Dance 5

Here’s the hint from Winds, which should be enclosed in spoiler tags @Lord Varys, ...

Quote

Spoiler

When she had left Petyr Baelish that morning he had been breaking his fast with old Oswell who had arrived last night from Gulltown on a lathered horse. She hoped they might still be talking, but Petyr’s solar proved empty. Someone had left a window open and a stack of papers had blown onto the floor.

 

Alayne, Winds

[Little Scribe of Naath]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger had Robert's ear, apparently, was on very good footing with Ned and Cat, got along splendidly with both Renly and Cersei, had a good relationship with Joffrey, and was in secret alliance/marriage pact with Lysa Arryn. Pretty difficult to figure out which road he'll take.

Yeah, that's quite possible. In general LF is too smart to put all his eggs in one basket, and he would not mind allying with any faction for his personal gain. Actually it is doubtful that he originally started out with the idea of betraying Ned. I think his initial objective was just to ensure that Stannis did not end up on the throne.

I think LF's plans will be revealed in full possibly in Sansa's POV in TWOW.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Yeah, that's quite possible. In general LF is too smart to put all his eggs in one basket, and he would not mind allying with any faction for his personal gain. Actually it is doubtful that he originally started out with the idea of betraying Ned. I think his initial objective was just to ensure that Stannis did not end up on the throne.

Preventing a King Stannis was indeed one of Littlefinger's major goals in ACoK. He and Varys both played very crucial roles in defeating Stannis. In fact, Littlefinger was the man who brought Stannis low both by arranging the Tyrell alliance as well as by suggesting that Garlan Tyrell wear Renly's armor. The latter thing broke Stannis' neck.

In general my feeling is that Littlefinger was sincere when he suggested his plan to use Joffrey as a shield to defeat Stannis and then replace him with Renly to Ned. Littlefinger and Renly get along very well in AGoT and the fact that Littlefinger and the Tyrells later work together to kill Joffrey also would fit into this theory.

Lysa definitely was just a plan B should Petyr not be able to rekindle his affair with Catelyn (he thinks they had one, back in the day). But she got quickly replaced by Sansa and Lysa was then just a placeholder until he can claim what he wants. He already wanted to marry Sansa back when Ned was imprisoned, and it seems he only arranged Ned's execution through Joffrey to ensure that Cersei and the Lannisters would remain dependent on her so that he could eventually get her in spite of Cersei.

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I think LF's plans will be revealed in full possibly in Sansa's POV in TWOW.

His new plans perhaps, but not necessarily what he was planning back in the day. The books are way too complex to invest too many times in Littlefinger monologuing about paths not taken. Although some things might be clarified this way. For instance, when Sansa and Littlefinger discuss her annulment in preparation of new marriage Littlefinger might reveal to her that he was the man behind Mandon Moore's attempt on Tyrion. It should be quite vexing to him that Tyrion was neither captured nor his corpse found in recent months. His plan was to have Sansa 'safely widowed', after all. 

This is another reason why Aegon might be good ally for Sansa. She could definitely get rid of Tyrion through him and the High Septon while some Vale septons discussing Sansa's case might not have the same authority. And a potentially invalid marriage between Sansa Stark and Harrold Hardyng is full of potential problems considering that people might consider the offspring of such a union illegitimate, casting doubts on the claims of Sansa's children to the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North.

[Lost Melnibonean]

As I have argued before, I think Petyr and Renly and Loras were in cahoots. Consider this...

Quote

Why were LF's boots dusty from riding just before he betrayed the Ned?

As another member of this forum said, "This is not simple dust from running aroung KL. The dust and wearing the same clothes indicates he left the city overnight. Hmmm..." And added, "We know that LF brokered Tyrion's deal with the Tyrells after Renly's death. But is there any evidence to suggest that LF met with Renly and Loras as they fled KL?" 

Perhaps Renly, not Varys, told Petyr that Robert named Eddard regent and protector!

Quote

"Now look at the other side of the coin. Joffrey is but twelve, and Robert gave you the regency, my lord. You are the Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm. The power is yours, Lord Stark. All you need do is reach out and take it. Make your peace with the Lannisters. Release the Imp. Wed Joffrey to your Sansa. Wed your younger girl to Prince Tommen, and your heir to Myrcella. It will be four years before Joffrey comes of age. By then he will look to you as a second father, and if not, well . . . four years is a good long while, my lord. Long enough to dispose of Lord Stannis. Then, should Joffrey prove troublesome, we can reveal his little secretand put Lord Renly on the throne."

Eddard XIII, Game 47

The next quote points to the relatively long, friendly relationship between Petyr and Renly...

Quote

He is a child still, Stannis declared, his anger ringing loud in the empty hall, a thieving child who thinks to snatch the crown off my brow.What has Renly ever done to earn a throne? He sits in council and jests with Littlefinger, and at tourneys he dons his splendid suit of armor and allows himself to be knocked off his horse by a better man. That is the sum of my brother Renly, who thinks he ought to be a king. I ask you, why did the gods inflict me with brothers? 

Prologue, Clash

And this points to the favorable relationship Petyr has with Loras...

Quote

"I am of the king's council, yet not the king's blood, so I would make a poor hostage. I knew Ser Loras passing well when he was here at court, and gave him no cause to mislike me. Mace Tyrell bears me no enmity that I know of, and I flatter myself that I am not unskilled in negotiation."

Tyrion VIII, Clash 38

[Lord Varys]

@Lost Melnibonean

I don't buy the idea about the dirty boots, but I agree in principle. If Littlefinger knew of Renly's interest in the throne it is quite clear that he would have wagered on him until such time as Renly died. With the Tyrells and the Stormlands Renly simply had all advantages on his sides.

And I'm pretty sure Littlefinger left Renly with the promise to deliver the city to him should King Renly ever come to claim his throne. Janos Slynt was Littlefinger's man, and with the City Watch under his control he had the power in the city.

Varys later helped Tyrion to purge the Goldcloaks of their corrupt elements and Jacelyn Bywater most definitely wasn't Littlefinger's men but that is no guarantee that Littlefinger did not still have enough officers among the City Watch to seize one or two gates and open them to King Renly later on.

[Lord Wraith]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George could shed some light on that in the future. Stannis is still alive and he could talk to Theon or somebody else how he figured out that Robert's children weren't his. Not sure whether that's going to happen, though.

But in general we should not make such a fuzz about Varys wondering what Littlefinger is up to in AGoT. That has to be seen in context, too. At this point it was virtually impossible to predict which faction Littlefinger would join/back up should King Robert die. I'm not even sure Littlefinger himself knew that when Varys and Illyrio had their little conversation.

Littlefinger had Robert's ear, apparently, was on very good footing with Ned and Cat, got along splendidly with both Renly and Cersei, had a good relationship with Joffrey, and was in secret alliance/marriage pact with Lysa Arryn. Pretty difficult to figure out which road he'll take.

That might just be a hint to the reader who Shadrich might be.

 Baelsh was keeping all of his opinions open through GOT. Also Vary's little birds in Pentos were called little mice. Could be another connection to the Mad Mouse.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Preventing a King Stannis was indeed one of Littlefinger's major goals in ACoK. He and Varys both played very crucial roles in defeating Stannis. In fact, Littlefinger was the man who brought Stannis low both by arranging the Tyrell alliance as well as by suggesting that Garlan Tyrell wear Renly's armor. The latter thing broke Stannis' neck.

In general my feeling is that Littlefinger was sincere when he suggested his plan to use Joffrey as a shield to defeat Stannis and then replace him with Renly to Ned. Littlefinger and Renly get along very well in AGoT and the fact that Littlefinger and the Tyrells later work together to kill Joffrey also would fit into this theory.

Lysa definitely was just a plan B should Petyr not be able to rekindle his affair with Catelyn (he thinks they had one, back in the day). But she got quickly replaced by Sansa and Lysa was then just a placeholder until he can claim what he wants. He already wanted to marry Sansa back when Ned was imprisoned, and it seems he only arranged Ned's execution through Joffrey to ensure that Cersei and the Lannisters would remain dependent on her so that he could eventually get her in spite of Cersei.

His new plans perhaps, but not necessarily what he was planning back in the day. The books are way too complex to invest too many times in Littlefinger monologuing about paths not taken. Although some things might be clarified this way. For instance, when Sansa and Littlefinger discuss her annulment in preparation of new marriage Littlefinger might reveal to her that he was the man behind Mandon Moore's attempt on Tyrion. It should be quite vexing to him that Tyrion was neither captured nor his corpse found in recent months. His plan was to have Sansa 'safely widowed', after all. 

This is another reason why Aegon might be good ally for Sansa. She could definitely get rid of Tyrion through him and the High Septon while some Vale septons discussing Sansa's case might not have the same authority. And a potentially invalid marriage between Sansa Stark and Harrold Hardyng is full of potential problems considering that people might consider the offspring of such a union illegitimate, casting doubts on the claims of Sansa's children to the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North.

I am glad other people are coming to the conclusion that keeping Stannis off the throne was Baelish's primary ambition not destroying the Starks as so many people think. GOT ends with Baelish betraying Ned so people assume that was the plan.

Lysa was one of his long term plans it was always there for the taking, but most of his moves are simply adapting to the ever changing alliances in Westeros. I'd say that Baelish's adaptability is his key strength, well and his apparent weakness.

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As I have argued before, I think Petyr and Renly and Loras were in cahoots. Consider this...

As another member of this forum said, "This is not simple dust from running aroung KL. The dust and wearing the same clothes indicates he left the city overnight. Hmmm..." And added, "We know that LF brokered Tyrion's deal with the Tyrells after Renly's death. But is there any evidence to suggest that LF met with Renly and Loras as they fled KL?" 

Perhaps Renly, not Varys, told Petyr that Robert named Eddard regent and protector!

Eddard XIII, Game 47

The next quote points to the relatively long, friendly relationship between Petyr and Renly...

Prologue, Clash

And this points to the favorable relationship Petyr has with Loras...

Tyrion VIII, Clash 38

I agree that Baelish was working with Renly and Loras. Also I think the Antler Men were supposed to be opening the gate for Renly when he attacked. Then Renly died and Baelish left KL and either intentionally or not didn't tell them about the change of plans.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

Agree with the general idea that Petyr and Renly were working together. I would not be surprised if the seed of the idea of Renly crowning himself king came from Petyr himself. With the Tyrells backing Renly due to Loras, Renly could be most assured of victory. And I think initially they tried getting Ned over to their side, as that would assure Stark and Tully swords in case of a war.

And I think Varys was playing along and waiting, watching to see when the realm would be unstable enough to strike.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Baelsh was keeping all of his opinions open through GOT. Also Vary's little birds in Pentos were called little mice. Could be another connection to the Mad Mouse.

Yeah, I already mentioned that one above.

8 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

I am glad other people are coming to the conclusion that keeping Stannis off the throne was Baelish's primary ambition not destroying the Starks as so many people think. GOT ends with Baelish betraying Ned so people assume that was the plan.

It became Littlefinger's only choice when Ned rejected Renly's offer and insisted on crowning Stannis. Littlefinger had not betrayed Ned if Ned had teamed up with Renly or had made it clear he would serve as Joffrey's Lord Regent. He would have had no reason for doing so because his goal at this point was finally to raise higher in the feudal pyramid. To be able to marry Lysa without risking a great scandal he needed a great seat and a great lordship of his own. What seat exactly was irrelevant, as was the identity of the person who raised him this high.

One also has to keep in mind that Littlefinger's interest shifted to Sansa even before he betrayed Ned. Thus it is actually quite obvious that the quickest and least problematic way for Littlefinger to Sansa's hand would have actually been Ned himself.

If Ned had never found out about the incest and had accepted Littlefinger's assistance in taking the Regency for Joffrey, keeping Cersei and the Lannisters in check, then Littlefinger most likely would eventually have demanded both a great seat and Sansa's hand as reward for his service to Ned and Cat.

8 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Lysa was one of his long term plans it was always there for the taking, but most of his moves are simply adapting to the ever changing alliances in Westeros. I'd say that Baelish's adaptability is his key strength, well and his apparent weakness.

Well, Littlefinger needed a great seat to openly court Lysa Arryn.

8 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

I agree that Baelish was working with Renly and Loras. Also I think the Antler Men were supposed to be opening the gate for Renly when he attacked. Then Renly died and Baelish left KL and either intentionally or not didn't tell them about the change of plans.

That is a neat idea. It would make sense that such people would transfer their allegiance to Stannis after Renly's death.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

@Lord Varys

I don't know if Baelish hoped to marry Sansa while Ned was alive. He certainly was interested in her, but IIRC he himself suggests that Ned should wed Joff to Sansa, Robb to Myrcella and Arya to Tommen and act as regent to Joff for a few years, while they dispose of Stannis. I'm pretty sure he would have known that Ned would not marry Sansa to him. That's probably what prompted him to get Ned killed instead of sent to the Wall.

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

@Lord Varys

I don't know if Baelish hoped to marry Sansa while Ned was alive. He certainly was interested in her, but IIRC he himself suggests that Ned should wed Joff to Sansa, Robb to Myrcella and Arya to Tommen and act as regent to Joff for a few years, while they dispose of Stannis. I'm pretty sure he would have known that Ned would not marry Sansa to him. That's probably what prompted him to get Ned killed instead of sent to the Wall.

In Dance, Cersei recalls Petyr offering to wed Sansa before The Ned lost his head. 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In Dance, Cersei recalls Petyr offering to wed Sansa before The Ned lost his head. 

Yeah, but I think by that time Petyr had already planned to goad Joff to kill Ned, I guess. If Ned had accepted to be Joffrey's regent or support Renly, realistically nobody would expect him to agree to marry Sansa to Baelish. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

@Lord Varys

I don't know if Baelish hoped to marry Sansa while Ned was alive. He certainly was interested in her, but IIRC he himself suggests that Ned should wed Joff to Sansa, Robb to Myrcella and Arya to Tommen and act as regent to Joff for a few years, while they dispose of Stannis. I'm pretty sure he would have known that Ned would not marry Sansa to him. That's probably what prompted him to get Ned killed instead of sent to the Wall.

Those would have been unconsummated marriages considering the ages of the children involved. And Littlefinger most likely intended to deal with Stannis sooner rather than later. The truth about Cersei's children could have been revealed immediately thereafter.

And then the marriages could have been annulled and Littlefinger could have married Sansa.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In Dance, Cersei recalls Petyr offering to wed Sansa before The Ned lost his head. 

Indeed. And if Petyr can ask Cersei there is no reason why the hell he could not have asked Ned.

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Yeah, but I think by that time Petyr had already planned to goad Joff to kill Ned, I guess. If Ned had accepted to be Joffrey's regent or support Renly, realistically nobody would expect him to agree to marry Sansa to Baelish. 

No, I think the best explanation for this actually is that Littlefinger decided to arrange Ned's execution after Cersei had decided to not allow him to marry Sansa.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Those would have been unconsummated marriages considering the ages of the children involved. And Littlefinger most likely intended to deal with Stannis sooner rather than later. The truth about Cersei's children could have been revealed immediately thereafter.

And then the marriages could have been annulled and Littlefinger could have married Sansa.

Indeed. And if Petyr can ask Cersei there is no reason why the hell he could not have asked Ned.

No, I think the best explanation for this actually is that Littlefinger decided to arrange Ned's execution after Cersei had decided to not allow him to marry Sansa.

When Petyr negotiated with The Ned (assuming he made that offer in good faith) Sansa was the daughter of the proud Lord of Winterfell, Warden of the North, and Hand of the King. Petyr knew that The Ned never would have considered wedding Sansa to the Lord of the Littlest Finger, a man The Ned held in contempt. 

On the other hand, when Petyr proposed the marriage, Sansa was the daughter of a traitor, and Cersei owed him for backing her against Eddard. 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

48 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

When Petyr negotiated with The Ned (assuming he made that offer in good faith) Sansa was the daughter of the proud Lord of Winterfell, Warden of the North, and Hand of the King. Petyr knew that The Ned never would have considered wedding Sansa to the Lord of the Littlest Finger, a man The Ned held in contempt. 

On the other hand, when Petyr propelled the marriage, Sansa was the daughter of a traitor, and Cersei owed him for backing her against Eddard. 

I like your explanation 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

When Petyr negotiated with The Ned (assuming he made that offer in good faith) Sansa was the daughter of the proud Lord of Winterfell, Warden of the North, and Hand of the King. Petyr knew that The Ned never would have considered wedding Sansa to the Lord of the Littlest Finger, a man The Ned held in contempt. 

On the other hand, when Petyr proposed the marriage, Sansa was the daughter of a traitor, and Cersei owed him for backing her against Eddard. 

This doesn't matter. Sansa was still the daughter of a great lord in both cases, and Cersei had correctly no interest in marrying a girl of her rank to an up-jumped nobody.

My idea is that Littlefinger might have asked for Sansa's hand as reward for their alliance to seize. Littlefinger is offering Ned to back him as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm in his planned power grab. The idea is that they unite their forces and destroy all their enemies - Cersei, Stannis, Tywin, etc.

It wouldn't be all that presumptuous of Littlefinger to ask for a great lordship and Sansa's hand in return. And if not, well, then Ned certainly can be removed from the board eventually.

But I find the idea intriguing that Littlefinger would have worked with Ned the same way he worked with the Lannisters if Ned had made a different decision.

[Lost Melnibonean]

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

This doesn't matter. Sansa was still the daughter of a great lord in both cases, and Cersei had correctly no interest in marrying a girl of her rank to an up-jumped nobody.

My idea is that Littlefinger might have asked for Sansa's hand as reward for their alliance to seize. Littlefinger is offering Ned to back him as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm in his planned power grab. The idea is that they unite their forces and destroy all their enemies - Cersei, Stannis, Tywin, etc.

It wouldn't be all that presumptuous of Littlefinger to ask for a great lordship and Sansa's hand in return. And if not, well, then Ned certainly can be removed from the board eventually.

But I find the idea intriguing that Littlefinger would have worked with Ned the same way he worked with the Lannisters if Ned had made a different decision.

I am not confident that Petyr's offer was genuine. And even if it was, I suspect that Petyr did not think Eddard would have accepted the proposal. 

Here is the passage...

Quote

 

Lord Petyr was clad in a blue velvet tunic with puffed sleeves, his silvery cape patterned with mockingbirds. "I suppose congratulations are in order," he said as he seated himself.

Ned scowled. "The king lies wounded and near to death."

"I know," Littlefinger said. "I also know that Robert has named you Protector of the Realm."

Ned's eyes flicked to the king's letter on the table beside him, its seal unbroken. "And how is it you know that, my lord?"

"Varys hinted as much," Littlefinger said, "and you have just confirmed it."

Ned's mouth twisted in anger. "Damn Varys and his little birds. Catelyn spoke truly, the man has some black art. I do not trust him."

"Excellent. You're learning." Littlefinger leaned forward. "Yet I'll wager you did not drag me here in the black of night to discuss the eunuch."

"No," Ned admitted. "I know the secret Jon Arryn was murdered to protect. Robert will leave no trueborn son behind him. Joffrey and Tommen are Jaime Lannister's bastards, born of his incestuous union with the queen."

Littlefinger lifted an eyebrow. "Shocking," he said in a tone that suggested he was not shocked at all. "The girl as well? No doubt. So when the king dies . . . "

"The throne by rights passes to Lord Stannis, the elder of Robert's two brothers."

Lord Petyr stroked his pointed beard as he considered the matter. "So it would seem. Unless . . . "

"Unless, my lord? There is no seeming to this. Stannis is the heir. Nothing can change that."

"Stannis cannot take the throne without your help. If you're wise, you'll make certain Joffrey succeeds."

Ned gave him a stony stare. "Have you no shred of honor?"

"Oh, a shred, surely," Littlefinger replied negligently. "Hear me out. Stannis is no friend of yours, nor of mine. Even his brothers can scarcely stomach him. The man is iron, hard and unyielding. He'll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty. No doubt he'll thank you for handing him the crown, but he won't love you for it. And his ascent will mean war. Stannis cannot rest easy on the throne until Cersei and her bastards are dead. Do you think Lord Tywin will sit idly while his daughter's head is measured for a spike? Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

"Now look at the other side of the coin. Joffrey is but twelve, and Robert gave you the regency, my lord. You are the Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm. The power is yours, Lord Stark. All you need do is reach out and take it. Make your peace with the Lannisters. Release the Imp. Wed Joffrey to your Sansa. Wed your younger girl to Prince Tommen, and your heir to Myrcella. It will be four years before Joffrey comes of age. By then he will look to you as a second father, and if not, well . . . four years is a good long while, my lord. Long enough to dispose of Lord Stannis. Then, should Joffrey prove troublesome, we can reveal his little secret and put Lord Renly on the throne."

"We?" Ned repeated.

Littlefinger gave a shrug. "You'll need someone to share your burdens. I assure you, my price would be modest."

"Your price." Ned's voice was ice. "Lord Baelish, what you suggest is treason."

"Only if we lose."

"You forget," Ned told him. "You forget Jon Arryn. You forget Jory Cassel. And you forget this." He drew the dagger and laid it on the table between them; a length of dragonbone and Valyrian steel, as sharp as the difference between right and wrong, between true and false, between life and death. "They sent a man to cut my son's throat, Lord Baelish."

Littlefinger sighed. "I fear I did forget, my lord. Pray forgive me. For a moment I did not remember that I was talking to a Stark." His mouth quirked. "So it will be Stannis, and war?"

"It is not a choice. Stannis is the heir."

"Far be it from me to dispute the Lord Protector. What would you have of me, then? Not my wisdom, for a certainty."

"I shall do my best to forget your . . . wisdom," Ned said with distaste. "I called you here to ask for the help you promised Catelyn. This is a perilous hour for all of us. Robert has named me Protector, true enough, but in the eyes of the world, Joffrey is still his son and heir. The queen has a dozen knights and a hundred men-at-arms who will do whatever she commands  . . . enough to overwhelm what remains of my own household guard. And for all I know, her brother Jaime may be riding for King's Landing even as we speak, with a Lannister host at his back."

"And you without an army." Littlefinger toyed with the dagger on the table, turning it slowly with a finger. "There is small love lost between Lord Renly and the Lannisters. Bronze Yohn Royce, Ser Balon Swann, Ser Loras, Lady Tanda, the Redwyne twins . . . each of them has a retinue of knights and sworn swords here at court."

"Renly has thirty men in his personal guard, the rest even fewer. It is not enough, even if I could be certain that all of them will choose to give me their allegiance. I must have the gold cloaks. The City Watch is two thousand strong, sworn to defend the castle, the city, and the king's peace."

"Ah, but when the queen proclaims one king and the Hand another, whose peace do they protect?" Lord Petyr flicked at the dagger with his finger, setting it spinning in place. Round and round it went, wobbling as it turned. When at last it slowed to a stop, the blade pointed at Littlefinger. "Why, there's your answer," he said, smiling. "They follow the man who pays them." He leaned back and looked Ned full in the face, his grey-green eyes bright with mockery. "You wear your honor like a suit of armor, Stark. You think it keeps you safe, but all it does is weigh you down and make it hard for you to move. Look at you now. You know why you summoned me here. You know what you want to ask me to do. You know it has to be done . . . but it's not honorable, so the words stick in your throat."

Ned's neck was rigid with tension. For a moment he was so angry that he did not trust himself to speak.

Littlefinger laughed. "I ought to make you say it, but that would be cruel . . . so have no fear, my good lord. For the sake of the love I bear for Catelyn, I will go to Janos Slynt this very hour and make certain that the City Watch is yours. Six thousand gold pieces should do it. A third for the Commander, a third for the officers, a third for the men. We might be able to buy them for half that much, but I prefer not to take chances." Smiling, he plucked up the dagger and offered it to Ned, hilt first.

 

As you can see, Petyr counseled Eddard to marry Sansa to Joffrey.