Best explanations of Varys and Littlefinger? Motives, activities etc.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am not confident that Petyr's offer was genuine. And even if it was, I suspect that Petyr did not think Eddard would have accepted the proposal. 

Here is the passage...

As you can see, Petyr counseled Eddard to marry Sansa to Joffrey. 

I know that, but as I told you if Ned had accepted the offer then this marriage would have been short-lived and unconsummated considering the age of the children involved. Littlefinger can wait.

You can, of course, doubt the sincerity of Littlefinger's offer but I don't. Littlefinger had groomed Ned for such a role and with him he might have gotten much quicker than with his Lannister-Renly scheme later on.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I know that, but as I told you if Ned had accepted the offer then this marriage would have been short-lived and unconsummated considering the age of the children involved. Littlefinger can wait.

You can, of course, doubt the sincerity of Littlefinger's offer but I don't. Littlefinger had groomed Ned for such a role and with him he might have gotten much quicker than with his Lannister-Renly scheme later on.

That makes no sense.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

That makes no sense.

Your assumption that Littlefinger would lay out a detailed scheme how to first back Joffrey to get rid of Stannis and the Renly if he did not really mean that makes no sense.

If Littlefinger just wanted to betray Ned he could just have told him a heartwarming story that he would always help him for Cat's sake and so on, but he only indicates as much later on when it becomes clear that Ned is not going to listen to reason.

Ned was the lawful Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm at this point. He was the legal mount to power, not Cersei and Tywin who were hated by more than half of the Realm.

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Your assumption that Littlefinger would lay out a detailed scheme how to first back Joffrey to get rid of Stannis and the Renly if he did not really mean that makes no sense.

If Littlefinger just wanted to betray Ned he could just have told him a heartwarming story that he would always help him for Cat's sake and so on, but he only indicates as much later on when it becomes clear that Ned is not going to listen to reason.

Ned was the lawful Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm at this point. He was the legal mount to power, not Cersei and Tywin who were hated by more than half of the Realm.

My assumption is that Petyr is a fictional character in a complex stoty, and that the author has him say certain things to certain other characters at specific times in the story to help lead the reader to certain (sometimes false) conclusions. Your assumption that Petyr is a real, rational actor makes no sense. 

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

My assumption is that Petyr is a fictional character in a complex stoty, and that the author has him say certain things to certain other characters at specific times in the story to help lead the reader to certain (sometimes false) conclusions. Your assumption that Petyr is a real, rational actor makes no sense. 

Well, the choice of words the author gave him in this particular case makes him look rather sincere and invested in his suggestion. He showed Ned what he would do in his position and with his knowledge and offers his help.

What do you think this attempt was supposed to mean? And what false conclusions should we draw from this? We can actually draw correct conclusions from this, namely that Littlefinger believes a King Stannis means war, and that he prefers Renly to Joffrey.

We have no reason to doubt that he is sincere about any of that.

I'm not saying he and Ned would have become best buddies. He might have still killed him eventually. Or not. We cannot say because this is a hypothetical.

But there might have been no reason for a betrayal in such a scenario. If they had enacted Littlefinger's plan then Ned's term as Lord Regent and Protector would have ended when King Renly took the throne. Then Ned could have stepped down as Hand and Littlefinger could have taken the office as part of the deal between them and Renly.

Ned could have retired to Winterfell while Petyr and Sansa would have began making their plans to take over the kingdom. Or something of that sort.

[Lord Wraith]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

One also has to keep in mind that Littlefinger's interest shifted to Sansa even before he betrayed Ned. Thus it is actually quite obvious that the quickest and least problematic way for Littlefinger to Sansa's hand would have actually been Ned himself.

If Ned had never found out about the incest and had accepted Littlefinger's assistance in taking the Regency for Joffrey, keeping Cersei and the Lannisters in check, then Littlefinger most likely would eventually have demanded both a great seat and Sansa's hand as reward for his service to Ned and Cat.

Well, Littlefinger needed a great seat to openly court Lysa Arryn.

That is a neat idea. It would make sense that such people would transfer their allegiance to Stannis after Renly's death.

I agree about the Ned giving him Sansa and a High seat would be a fair enough reward to stopping the Lannisters.

The Antler Men were mostly merchants and other rich men. Probably "friends" of Baelish.

5 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am not confident that Petyr's offer was genuine. And even if it was, I suspect that Petyr did not think Eddard would have accepted the proposal. 

Here is the passage...

As you can see, Petyr counseled Eddard to marry Sansa to Joffrey. 

No that because Baelish's plan was the one Renly gave, Baelish and Renly were working together. Baelish always works via someone else when he can help it. This wasn't his plan this was his hail mary, the last change to keep him from backing Stannis. Then Ned chose Stannis and war and Baelish went to the Lannisters to preserve himself.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

I don't buy at all that Ned would have married Sansa to LF even if LF had helped him become Regent. For one, there is the age difference, second, Ned knows very well that he had been in love with Cat, and three, Ned would never trust him with his own daughter. He likes honorable, straightforward guys. 

Plus Sansa is stunningly beautiful, well-bred, and of very high lineage, thus holding massive political value. Even if Ned didn't bethroth her to Joff, she would have been involved in an alliance with some other powerful house for sure.

Cersei is another matter however, and I think LF may have assumed that because he helped her stay alive, she would agree to marry Sansa to him (because to Cersei, she is just a hostage and a daughter of a traitor.) However, when Cersei refused on grounds of her high birth, he might have started plotting to get her under his thumb in a different way.

 

Anyway, these are all hypothetical scenarios and we may never actually know the answer. To steer the conversation in a different direction:

Do you think Varys actually believes that Faegon is truly the best possible guy "for the realm", or is it just crap?

It was interesting to me because he always says he works for the realm. When he tells Kevan in ADWD about how well Aegon has been groomed, it made me appreciate the fact that Varys, while he might have his vested interests, doesn't want to place some idiot/tyrant on the throne.

[RumHam]

26 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

The Antler Men were mostly merchants and other rich men. Probably "friends" of Baelish.

I'll try to remember the thread, but someone recently made a convincing argument that these men probably had no connection to Littlefinger. They argued that when the antler men were condemned Littlefinger simply falsified loans in their names to cover his own embezzlement. 

[Lord Wraith]

4 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I don't buy at all that Ned would have married Sansa to LF even if LF had helped him become Regent. For one, there is the age difference, second, Ned knows very well that he had been in love with Cat, and three, Ned would never trust him with his own daughter. He likes honorable, straightforward guys. 

Plus Sansa is stunningly beautiful, well-bred, and of very high lineage, thus holding massive political value. Even if Ned didn't bethroth her to Joff, she would have been involved in an alliance with some other powerful house for sure.

Cersei is another matter however, and I think LF may have assumed that because he helped her stay alive, she would agree to marry Sansa to him (because to Cersei, she is just a hostage and a daughter of a traitor.) However, when Cersei refused on grounds of her high birth, he might have started plotting to get her under his thumb in a different way.

 

Anyway, these are all hypothetical scenarios and we may never actually know the answer. To steer the conversation in a different direction:

Do you think Varys actually believes that Faegon is truly the best possible guy "for the realm", or is it just crap?

It was interesting to me because he always says he works for the realm. When he tells Kevan in ADWD about how well Aegon has been groomed, it made me appreciate the fact that Varys, while he might have his vested interests, doesn't want to place some idiot/tyrant on the throne.

Depends really. Baelish would have saved his family and Cat thinks of his as a brother. Also once he becomes a high lord there wouldn't be too much issue. Then again that might be wish fulfillment for Baelish. Since it doesn't happen we are basically debating fanfiction.

I still think that Baelish was using the idea of marriage to get Sansa out of KL without it being treason.

I am a believe that FAegon is the union of Brightflame and Blackfyre bloodlines so yes Varys is very interested in getting him on the throne. Its been the plan all along. The for the realm is just bs he could have put Rhaegar on the throne if he wanted a good leader.

 

Just now, RumHam said:

I'll try to remember the thread, but someone recently made a convincing argument that these men probably had no connection to Littlefinger. They argued that when the antler men were condemned Littlefinger simply falsified loans in their names to cover his own embezzlement. 

I'd love to read it. It just fits Baelish's MO in my opinion.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I don't buy at all that Ned would have married Sansa to LF even if LF had helped him become Regent. For one, there is the age difference, second, Ned knows very well that he had been in love with Cat, and three, Ned would never trust him with his own daughter. He likes honorable, straightforward guys.

It might have been difficult to get them if Sansa had been married to Joffrey first. Remember, that was the plan, and consummated or not Sansa would have still been a married woman.

I'm not saying Littlefinger would have asked for Sansa's hand the moment Ned was confirmed as Lord Regent and Protector, I'm saying he would have done so after he and Ned had dealt with Cersei, Stannis, and Tywin. If they had pulled this off Littlefinger would presumably have proven his worth to Ned a couple of times, most likely in a similar fashion as he did so to the Lannisters during the War of the Five Kings.

That got him Harrenhal and the permission to marry Lysa Arryn. Similar stunning features could have gotten him, say, Dragonstone and Sansa's hand. What do you think Ned would have thought of Littlefinger had the man actually uncovered and thwarted a conspiracy to kill Ned, saving his life in the process?

But as I said, this is just a hypothetical scenario. But one Littlefinger certainly would have preferred to the way things turned out in the end. I'm pretty sure he would feel less conflicted about what Sansa is to him if he had not taken her father and mother from her, becoming this stepfather guy for her in his own mind. If Ned and Cat had given her hand to him it would have been clear he was their friend and now the lover and husband of Sansa Stark.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Do you think Varys actually believes that Faegon is truly the best possible guy "for the realm", or is it just crap?

I think he hopes that, yes. He certainly thinks he and Illyrio did everything in their power to prepare him for the role. And they might be right. I honestly doubt that Aegon's personality is going to prevent him from being a good king. It will be other circumstances like the threat of Euron, a grey plague pandemic, or the eventual return of Daenerys Targaryen that will prevent him from being a good guy. He'll have to fight for his throne to keep it, and he'll be forced to stoop to dirty tricks and the like to remain in charge, and that might make him unpopular.

Aegon certainly won't become a tyrant by intent like a man like Maegor the Cruel.

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It was interesting to me because he always says he works for the realm. When he tells Kevan in ADWD about how well Aegon has been groomed, it made me appreciate the fact that Varys, while he might have his vested interests, doesn't want to place some idiot/tyrant on the throne.

He certainly does not want to do that. I think his Aegon plan is in fact a plan to create a lasting peace for generations. Aegon was intended to be a new Jaehaerys I, a man to pacify the Realm for decades or even an entire century. We don't know the details so much but the purging of the great houses in the preceding wars certainly could be part of plan to weaken the nobility and strengthen the restored Targaryen monarchy at the end of the war. That could then mean real change.

I'd not be surprised if Varys is actually the last man in the Realm who still believes in and wants to implement the reforms of Aegon V from a position of true strength.

If Aegon ever becomes a liability to a failure in those plans I don't doubt that Varys would kill Aegon himself and switch sides to a better monarch.

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I don't buy at all that Ned would have married Sansa to LF even if LF had helped him become Regent. For one, there is the age difference, second, Ned knows very well that he had been in love with Cat, and three, Ned would never trust him with his own daughter. He likes honorable, straightforward guys. 

Plus Sansa is stunningly beautiful, well-bred, and of very high lineage, thus holding massive political value. Even if Ned didn't bethroth her to Joff, she would have been involved in an alliance with some other powerful house for sure.

Cersei is another matter however, and I think LF may have assumed that because he helped her stay alive, she would agree to marry Sansa to him (because to Cersei, she is just a hostage and a daughter of a traitor.) However, when Cersei refused on grounds of her high birth, he might have started plotting to get her under his thumb in a different way.

 

Anyway, these are all hypothetical scenarios and we may never actually know the answer. To steer the conversation in a different direction:

Do you think Varys actually believes that Faegon is truly the best possible guy "for the realm", or is it just crap?

It was interesting to me because he always says he works for the realm. When he tells Kevan in ADWD about how well Aegon has been groomed, it made me appreciate the fact that Varys, while he might have his vested interests, doesn't want to place some idiot/tyrant on the throne.

Varys backs Aegon because of who Aegon really is. But Varys and Illyrio had Aegon well prepared. 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd not be surprised if Varys is actually the last man in the Realm who still believes in and wants to implement the reforms of Aegon V from a position of true strength.

If Aegon ever becomes a liability to a failure in those plans I don't doubt that Varys would kill Aegon himself and switch sides to a better monarch.

Really? The prevailing theory supposes that Aegon is his own blood, so I wonder if he'd do that.

But yes, Varys has a few similarities to Bloodraven, in that way. Both, I think, are men who are willing to undertake a few dishonorable actions in order to keep a good king on the throne and ensure some peace in the realm. LF, on the other hand, is purely interested in his own personal advancement and nothing else.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Really? The prevailing theory supposes that Aegon is his own blood, so I wonder if he'd do that.

If Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son then he is most likely Illyrio's son. We can be reasonably sure about that. But that doesn't mean he is closely related to Varys. He can at best be his nephew, or a rather distant cousin if both Varys and Illyrio are descended from different branches of the Targaryen-Blackfyre family tree.

I doubt it will ever come to a situation in which Varys will be tempted to kill Aegon (because I don't think Aegon will become a tyrant or a mad king or something of that sort) but I certainly could see Varys jumping Aegon's sinking ship and team up with Dany should it become clear that she is going to win.

Illyrio is most likely going to go down with Aegon in the end if the boy is indeed his son. But Varys might not.

One also has to consider the Others as a potential game changer. Varys is not going to ignore the threat they pose.

9 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

But yes, Varys has a few similarities to Bloodraven, in that way. Both, I think, are men who are willing to undertake a few dishonorable actions in order to keep a good king on the throne and ensure some peace in the realm. LF, on the other hand, is purely interested in his own personal advancement and nothing else.

Well, in the end Littlefinger would also be interested in stability and peace, of course. He cannot remain king or the guy behind the throne if his reign is constantly challenged and threatened by unrest and rebellions. But Littlefinger does not intend to create a monarch or a dynasty which could guarantee a lasting peace. And her would certainly do everything to stay in power once he has finally climbed to the top.

[Lost Melnibonean]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the choice of words the author gave him in this particular case makes him look rather sincere and invested in his suggestion. He showed Ned what he would do in his position and with his knowledge and offers his help.

What do you think this attempt was supposed to mean? And what false conclusions should we draw from this? We can actually draw correct conclusions from this, namely that Littlefinger believes a King Stannis means war, and that he prefers Renly to Joffrey.

We have no reason to doubt that he is sincere about any of that.

I'm not saying he and Ned would have become best buddies. He might have still killed him eventually. Or not. We cannot say because this is a hypothetical.

But there might have been no reason for a betrayal in such a scenario. If they had enacted Littlefinger's plan then Ned's term as Lord Regent and Protector would have ended when King Renly took the throne. Then Ned could have stepped down as Hand and Littlefinger could have taken the office as part of the deal between them and Renly.

Ned could have retired to Winterfell while Petyr and Sansa would have began making their plans to take over the kingdom. Or something of that sort.

As in so many areas, we agree on more than we disagree. I don't believe the offer was serious because I don't believe Petyr thought for a moment that Eddard would have accepted his proposal. If Eddard had accepted Petyr's proposal, Petyr would have been delighted. But that's a contrary to fact hypothesis, no? 

Lord Petyr was clad in a blue velvet tunic with puffed sleeves, his silvery cape patterned with mockingbirds. "I suppose congratulations are in order," he said as he seated himself.

Ned scowled. "The king lies wounded and near to death."

This hints that Petyr has been playing the game of thrones, and it reinforces for the reader the contempt Eddard feels for Petyr. 

"I know," Littlefinger said. "I also know that Robert has named you Protector of the Realm."

Ned's eyes flicked to the king's letter on the table beside him, its seal unbroken. "And how is it you know that, my lord?"

"Varys hinted as much," Littlefinger said, "and you have just confirmed it."

I wonder whether Petyr might have learned it from Renly, but he says Varys hinted at it. Why would Varys hint at this to Petyr? I have to assume that Varys hinted at it to Cersei in the presence of Petyr and Pycelle. 

Ned's mouth twisted in anger. "Damn Varys and his little birds. Catelyn spoke truly, the man has some black art. I do not trust him."

"Excellent. You're learning." Littlefinger leaned forward.

If Petyr were really trying to get Eddard to listen to him, why would he be so condescending? 

"Yet I'll wager you did not drag me here in the black of night to discuss the eunuch."

"No," Ned admitted. "I know the secret Jon Arryn was murdered to protect. Robert will leave no trueborn son behind him. Joffrey and Tommen are Jaime Lannister's bastards, born of his incestuous union with the queen."

Littlefinger lifted an eyebrow. "Shocking," he said in a tone that suggested he was not shocked at all.

Petyr gives Eddard more sarcasm, and Eddard realizes Petyr has known, or at least suspected, this all along, and yet never advised him of the twincest. 

"The girl as well? No doubt. So when the king dies . . . "

"The throne by rights passes to Lord Stannis, the elder of Robert's two brothers."

Lord Petyr stroked his pointed beard as he considered the matter. "So it would seem. Unless . . . "

"Unless, my lord? There is no seeming to this. Stannis is the heir. Nothing can change that."

"Stannis cannot take the throne without your help. If you're wise, you'll make certain Joffrey succeeds."

Ned gave him a stony stare. "Have you no shred of honor?"

"Oh, a shred, surely," Littlefinger replied negligently.

Eddard leaves no doubt here about his position. And notice that Petyr responds "negligently." In other words, Petyr fails to exercise reasonable care under the circumstances. Petyr knows that Varys is listening in. The proposal cannot be serious, because Petyr cannot risk Varys informing on him. 

"Hear me out. Stannis is no friend of yours, nor of mine. Even his brothers can scarcely stomach him. The man is iron, hard and unyielding. He'll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty. No doubt he'll thank you for handing him the crown, but he won't love you for it. And his ascent will mean war. Stannis cannot rest easy on the throne until Cersei and her bastards are dead. Do you think Lord Tywin will sit idly while his daughter's head is measured for a spike? Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

"Now look at the other side of the coin. Joffrey is but twelve, and Robert gave you the regency, my lord. You are the Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm. The power is yours, Lord Stark. All you need do is reach out and take it. Make your peace with the Lannisters. Release the Imp. Wed Joffrey to your Sansa. Wed your younger girl to Prince Tommen, and your heir to Myrcella. It will be four years before Joffrey comes of age. By then he will look to you as a second father, and if not, well . . . four years is a good long while, my lord. Long enough to dispose of Lord Stannis. Then, should Joffrey prove troublesome, we can reveal his little secret and put Lord Renly on the throne."

"We?" Ned repeated.

Littlefinger gave a shrug. "You'll need someone to share your burdens. I assure you, my price would be modest."

This was for our benefit, not Eddard's. 

"Your price." Ned's voice was ice. "Lord Baelish, what you suggest is treason."

"Only if we lose."

"You forget," Ned told him. "You forget Jon Arryn. You forget Jory Cassel. And you forget this." He drew the dagger and laid it on the table between them; a length of dragonbone and Valyrian steel, as sharp as the difference between right and wrong, between true and false, between life and death. "They sent a man to cut my son's throat, Lord Baelish."

This reinforces that there is no way that Eddard would ever have considered such an offer. 

Littlefinger sighed. "I fear I did forget, my lord. Pray forgive me. For a moment I did not remember that I was talking to a Stark."

And this shows that Petyr knew that Eddard would never have accepted such an offer. 

His mouth quirked. "So it will be Stannis, and war?"

"It is not a choice. Stannis is the heir."

"Far be it from me to dispute the Lord Protector. What would you have of me, then? Not my wisdom, for a certainty."

Petyr knows what Eddard's wants and needs. 

"I shall do my best to forget your . . . wisdom," Ned said with distaste. "I called you here to ask for the help you promised Catelyn. This is a perilous hour for all of us. Robert has named me Protector, true enough, but in the eyes of the world, Joffrey is still his son and heir. The queen has a dozen knights and a hundred men-at-arms who will do whatever she commands  . . . enough to overwhelm what remains of my own household guard. And for all I know, her brother Jaime may be riding for King's Landing even as we speak, with a Lannister host at his back."

"And you without an army." Littlefinger toyed with the dagger on the table, turning it slowly with a finger. "There is small love lost between Lord Renly and the Lannisters. Bronze Yohn Royce, Ser Balon Swann, Ser Loras, Lady Tanda, the Redwyne twins . . . each of them has a retinue of knights and sworn swords here at court."

"Renly has thirty men in his personal guard, the rest even fewer. It is not enough, even if I could be certain that all of them will choose to give me their allegiance. I must have the gold cloaks. The City Watch is two thousand strong, sworn to defend the castle, the city, and the king's peace."

"Ah, but when the queen proclaims one king and the Hand another, whose peace do they protect?" Lord Petyr flicked at the dagger with his finger, setting it spinning in place. Round and round it went, wobbling as it turned. When at last it slowed to a stop, the blade pointed at Littlefinger. "Why, there's your answer," he said, smiling. "They follow the man who pays them." He leaned back and looked Ned full in the face, his grey-green eyes bright with mockery. "You wear your honor like a suit of armor, Stark. You think it keeps you safe, but all it does is weigh you down and make it hard for you to move. Look at you now. You know why you summoned me here. You know what you want to ask me to do. You know it has to be done . . . but it's not honorable, so the words stick in your throat."

Ned's neck was rigid with tension. For a moment he was so angry that he did not trust himself to speak.

Littlefinger laughed. "I ought to make you say it, but that would be cruel . . . so have no fear, my good lord. For the sake of the love I bear for Catelyn, I will go to Janos Slynt this very hour and make certain that the City Watch is yours. Six thousand gold pieces should do it. A third for the Commander, a third for the officers, a third for the men. We might be able to buy them for half that much, but I prefer not to take chances." Smiling, he plucked up the dagger and offered it to Ned, hilt first.

Handing the dagger to Eddard hilt first while smiling was ominous, and even the first time reader should see the betrayal coming. 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As in so many areas, we agree on more than we disagree. I don't believe the offer was serious because I don't believe Petyr thought for a moment that Eddard would have accepted his proposal. If Eddard had accepted Petyr's proposal, Petyr would have been delighted. But that's a contrary to fact hypothesis, no?

I think Petyr wasn't exactly that convinced that Ned would expect his offer, but he still wanted to have success there because then everything would have been much easier for him.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

"I know," Littlefinger said. "I also know that Robert has named you Protector of the Realm."

Ned's eyes flicked to the king's letter on the table beside him, its seal unbroken. "And how is it you know that, my lord?"

"Varys hinted as much," Littlefinger said, "and you have just confirmed it."

I wonder whether Petyr might have learned it from Renly, but he says Varys hinted at it. Why would Varys hint at this to Petyr? I have to assume that Varys hinted at it to Cersei in the presence of Petyr and Pycelle. 

There is no reason to assume anything of that sort. We have no reason to believe Varys specifically met or talked to Cersei and Pycelle in Littlefinger's presence. But we do know that Littlefinger and Varys had their private meetings and talks in AGoT (the incident with Cat comes to mind) so that it is not unlikely that they met and talked in private about Robert's death and succession.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Ned's mouth twisted in anger. "Damn Varys and his little birds. Catelyn spoke truly, the man has some black art. I do not trust him."

"Excellent. You're learning." Littlefinger leaned forward.

If Petyr were really trying to get Eddard to listen to him, why would he be so condescending?

Because that's the way he talks. What you point out here are traits Petyr Baelish shows in every conversation in the books. He is funny, sarcastic, and mocks people who take themselves too seriously.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

"Yet I'll wager you did not drag me here in the black of night to discuss the eunuch."

"No," Ned admitted. "I know the secret Jon Arryn was murdered to protect. Robert will leave no trueborn son behind him. Joffrey and Tommen are Jaime Lannister's bastards, born of his incestuous union with the queen."

Littlefinger lifted an eyebrow. "Shocking," he said in a tone that suggested he was not shocked at all.

Petyr gives Eddard more sarcasm, and Eddard realizes Petyr has known, or at least suspected, this all along, and yet never advised him of the twincest. 

Agreed, that is a fact Littlefinger could have mentioned. But then, Littlefinger's plan as laid out later shows gives the reader and Ned a pretty big hint why he did not do such a thing.

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

"The girl as well? No doubt. So when the king dies . . . "

"The throne by rights passes to Lord Stannis, the elder of Robert's two brothers."

Lord Petyr stroked his pointed beard as he considered the matter. "So it would seem. Unless . . . "

"Unless, my lord? There is no seeming to this. Stannis is the heir. Nothing can change that."

"Stannis cannot take the throne without your help. If you're wise, you'll make certain Joffrey succeeds."

Ned gave him a stony stare. "Have you no shred of honor?"

"Oh, a shred, surely," Littlefinger replied negligently.

Eddard leaves no doubt here about his position. And notice that Petyr responds "negligently." In other words, Petyr fails to exercise reasonable care under the circumstances. Petyr knows that Varys is listening in. The proposal cannot be serious, because Petyr cannot risk Varys informing on him. 

Varys cannot do anything with information he heard this late. Cersei is expecting that Ned is going to move against her, and the king is dying in his poppy dreams.

Not to mention that Varys was actually on board with Littlefinger's Joffrey-Renly plan. That is what he tells Ned later in the black cells. He says to him that he should have accepted Littlefinger's offer - meaning that Varys did indeed know of the offer and would have backed Littlefinger-Ned in their grab for power. That suggests that Varys was on board with Littlefinger's plan before Littlefinger talked to Ned.

And you have to keep in mind that Cersei credits Sansa as her main source on Ned's plans, not Littlefinger or Slynt. That suggests that Littlefinger was not that high in Cersei's graces at that point nor very much in cahoots with her.

Later on Littlefinger is visibly pissed (as far as he gave such things away) that Ned ignored his wisdom. And this is the point where Littlefinger's own lies (especially the dagger lie) come back to haunt him and his plans with Ned. With him knowing about the incest and insisting on Stannis he is of no use to his plans. But Littlefinger never had any intention for Ned to find out about the incest - that is why he never actually touched upon that subject and just gave him pieces that made it rather difficult to uncover the whole thing. Robert's bastards had nothing to do with the actual topic they were just ways to illustrate that it was unlikely that Cersei's children were not Robert's. But if you were not suspecting something like that - as Ned was - it was very difficult to figure the twincest out the way Ned did.

That is what makes Littlefinger's imminent betrayal both obvious and ominous at the end of the chapter. But it doesn't mean Littlefinger intended for Ned to reject his offer.