Aemon and rhaegar

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, RobOsevens said:

Idk about that, I would think all most people know is that Ned returned to the North from the war with a bastard. We have rumors that it may have been Ashara (from Catelyn), Wylla (from Ned Dayne), or even the daughter of a fisherman (from Davos' chapter in White Harbour?) 

Sure, Ned sang that song and most people immediately chuckled to themselves that even the most honorable are not without their flaws. So it was an excellent bit of subterfuge.

But also realize that the realm had only recently rid itself of the last of the Blackfyre pretenders some 20 years before, putting an end to nearly 100 years of bloodshed. So I can't help but think that the whole time Rhaegar had Lyanna all to himself, the entire realm was worried that another Targ bastard was coming and how badly the realm would bleed from that. Then, when both R & L died with no bastard in sight, there must have been a huge sigh of relief. The only one with a bastard was Ned, who had come directly from Lyanna's deathbed, and the only other witness was some weird little guy who lives in a swamp.

So it just seems to me that smart people like Varys and Aegon should have put two and two together, since they are so good at seeing through the lies and pretenses on so many other occasions. So either they blew it badly on this one, or perhaps they do know and for whatever reason choose not to act on it.

 

[RobOsevens]

48 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, Ned sang that song and most people immediately chuckled to themselves that even the most honorable are not without their flaws. So it was an excellent bit of subterfuge.

So it just seems to me that smart people like Varys and Aegon should have put two and two together, since they are so good at seeing through the lies and pretenses on so many other occasions. So either they blew it badly on this one, or perhaps they do know and for whatever reason choose not to act on it.

 

I see your point regarding Varys and Aemon to answer it I would say that if they know about R+L=J that they would choose not to act on it rather than failing to notice/act as a mistake. 

In a thread about Ned's hypocrisy yesterday I made the point that if R+L=J what were people really to do about it that wouldn't end in Jon's death? No one is really in any position to bring him to power or legitimize him. Ned just fought against the Targs and was in no position to turn around plunge the realm back into war and kill his best friend. Ned acted in a smart manner to protect Jon. 

I would think Varys would recognize Ned is just protecting the boy and allowing him to live with no intention of ever bringing him to power. I do not know how Varys could affect this without putting Jon in harms way. He already has Dany, Viserys and fAegon for potential Targ plots at this point.

[Jak Scaletongue]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, Ned sang that song and most people immediately chuckled to themselves that even the most honorable are not without their flaws. So it was an excellent bit of subterfuge.

But also realize that the realm had only recently rid itself of the last of the Blackfyre pretenders some 20 years before, putting an end to nearly 100 years of bloodshed. So I can't help but think that the whole time Rhaegar had Lyanna all to himself, the entire realm was worried that another Targ bastard was coming and how badly the realm would bleed from that. Then, when both R & L died with no bastard in sight, there must have been a huge sigh of relief. The only one with a bastard was Ned, who had come directly from Lyanna's deathbed, and the only other witness was some weird little guy who lives in a swamp.

So it just seems to me that smart people like Varys and Aegon should have put two and two together, since they are so good at seeing through the lies and pretenses on so many other occasions. So either they blew it badly on this one, or perhaps they do know and for whatever reason choose not to act on it.

 

 

12 minutes ago, RobOsevens said:

I see your point regarding Varys and Aemon to answer it I would say that if they know about R+L=J that they would choose not to act on it rather than failing to notice/act as a mistake. 

In a thread about Ned's hypocrisy yesterday I made the point that if R+L=J what were people really to do about it that wouldn't end in Jon's death? No one is really in any position to bring him to power or legitimize him. Ned just fought against the Targs and was in no position to turn around plunge the realm back into war and kill his best friend. Ned acted in a smart manner to protect Jon. 

I would think Varys would recognize Ned is just protecting the boy and allowing him to live with no intention of ever bringing him to power. I do not know how Varys could affect this without putting Jon in harms way. He already has Dany, Viserys and fAegon for potential Targ plots at this point.

I think if Varys or Aemon had any inkling, they saw that Ned wasn't going to be playing power games with Jon.  First of, Ned clearly isn't the kind of guy to play games - and Varys had likely figured this out during Ned's first visit to KL after Tywin sacked the place.  Aemon, whether he knew Ned personally or not, likely knew the Starks in general quite well based on the Stark's friendship with the NW and may have taken a "wait and see" approach.  Like he said in his conversation to Jon, he was as weak as a suckling babe, eyesight going, strength fled - "wait and see" is pretty much Aemon's only option at that point.  And he waits and sees that Ned is claiming Jon as his own, which may give him pause and he may even start to question whether his suspicions are wrong...basically, I could see Aemon "in the fence" and since by the time he meets Jon he can't even *see* who Jon resembles I can easily imagine Aemon constantly asking himself "could he be Rhaegar's son? or is he Ned's?" and never actually being certain one way or the other.  Not certain enough to ever bring it up to Jon himself.  He was a fair bit out of the loop, being up at the Wall.  Most of his info about the war was likely after the fact and often contradictory or inaccurate.

[The Fattest Leech]

18 minutes ago, Jak Scaletongue said:

 

I think if Varys or Aemon had any inkling, they saw that Ned wasn't going to be playing power games with Jon. 

~snipped~

44 minutes ago, RobOsevens said:

~snipped~

 I do not know how Varys could affect this without putting Jon in harms way. He already has Dany, Viserys and fAegon for potential Targ plots at this point.

 

This thread has me hooked. Good work.

Just a quick question. Varys seems like the type to plan things out way in advance (think fAegon's life so far). Don't you think he would want to either take Jon as the legit heir, and/or, "collect" Jon to put on a shelf next to the other Targ heirs to pull out at his most opportune time. It kinda seems a waste (and maybe a little out of character) if Varys actually knew of Jon, a legit heir in some way, yet did nothing about it.

[Jak Scaletongue]

10 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

This thread has me hooked. Good work.

Just a quick question. Varys seems like the type to plan things out way in advance (think fAegon's life so far). Don't you think he would want to either take Jon as the legit heir, and/or, "collect" Jon to put on a shelf next to the other Targ heirs to pull out at his most opportune time. It kinda seems a waste (and maybe a little out of character) if Varys actually knew of Jon, a legit heir in some way, yet did nothing about it.

I suppose that all depends on how quickly word of Jon got out into the wider world.  If Jon was already at (or near) Winterfell by the time Varys found out about him, Varys might not have been able to do anything about it.  He may have managed to get one of his birds assigned to Winterfell with a way to contact Varys and keep him updated, but if Jon was already out of Varys' grasp I can see Varys moving forward with what he *can* get his hands on.  Anything else is too risky to Varys' other plans and possibly to Varys himself.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

People talk of the contradiction of über-honourable Ned Stark fathering a bastard, but tend to forget that Ned was what, eighteen? when he seemingly got his bastard, and a second son besides, who came to the limelight after dramatic and not quite expected sircumstances. He wouldn't have a reputation yet.

In-series characters, the smartest of them included, are not questioning Jon's parentage because Ned's story is painfully believable for being very, very common. Men father basterds, in war even more, that's all. And even the best of them can slip up when they're young.

Varys knows nothing, and neither did Aemon.

[Jak Scaletongue]

Very good point @ShadowCat Rivers - best case scenario, they *suspected* something was up with the very convenient timing.  But suspicions aren't proof, and certainly not worth putting the rest of Varys' plans in danger.  And I do think Aemon was too out of the loop up at the Wall to be certain about anything that was happening down south besides the big things (death of Aerys, Rhaegar, Elia and the kids).  And even if Jon does have *some* resemblence to Rhaegar that we're unaware of, Aemon was too blind to see it by the time he met Jon.  Though not wanting Varys to get a good look at Jon might be one of Ned's reasons for being so adamant that Jon couldn't go to KL (the reasons he does present to Catelyn and Luwin are good, valid ones but he does leave a lot unsaid even in his own POV's!).

In short, I agree with you - but speculating is fun!  If they had *any* inkling, it was nothing more than minor suspicions.  Certainly not worth ruining Varys' other plans and not worth it to Aemon to ruin a family. Anything more than some suspicions about the convenient timing is unlikely - like you said, bastards are common and bastards born in war are even more so.  Especially to young men on their first campaigns.

[The Fattest Leech]

14 minutes ago, Jak Scaletongue said:

I suppose that all depends on how quickly word of Jon got out into the wider world.  If Jon was already at (or near) Winterfell by the time Varys found out about him, Varys might not have been able to do anything about it.  He may have managed to get one of his birds assigned to Winterfell with a way to contact Varys and keep him updated, but if Jon was already out of Varys' grasp I can see Varys moving forward with what he *can* get his hands on.  Anything else is too risky to Varys' other plans and possibly to Varys himself.

Thanks for the response

[Jak Scaletongue]

3 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Thanks for the response

Anything to procrastinate!

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

This thread has me hooked. Good work.

Just a quick question. Varys seems like the type to plan things out way in advance (think fAegon's life so far). Don't you think he would want to either take Jon as the legit heir, and/or, "collect" Jon to put on a shelf next to the other Targ heirs to pull out at his most opportune time. It kinda seems a waste (and maybe a little out of character) if Varys actually knew of Jon, a legit heir in some way, yet did nothing about it.

I agree with this. If either one of them even suspected Jon was Rhaegar's they would at the very least have taken a stronger interest in him from afar; Aegon because Jon would be one of the few relatives he has left, and certainly the closest at hand, and Varys because he couldn't let a loose end like that go on the hunch that Ned wouldn't trot him out as a contender for the throne someday. Varys admits to Ned point blank that he doesn't trust him, and this was after they had met and conversed for some weeks in KL where they each could take good measure of the other. I doubt Varys and Ned had much contact at KL at the time of the sack, since V was probably in hiding the whole time. Maybe later at the R+C wedding, but I'm certain Ned did not bring baby Jon out for all to see at that point.

So I can only conclude that neither of them know the truth about Jon, and neither do other smart players like Littlefinger, Tyrion, Tywin, Lady O... It was a masterful stroke by Ned, deceiving all of these uber-smart people. Too bad he couldn't keep up the good work once he became Hand.