Jon Snow = Aegon in Daenerys' vision

[Rippounet]

On 18/03/2016 at 0:15 AM, MtnLion said:

Ah, remember, it is winter before the tournament, and there is only a two month break that is a false spring.  The quote is that Ned goes from the Eyrie to the tournament.  It is nonsense to think that he would go to Winterfell during winter, have the discussion with Lyanna, go back to the Eyrie during winter, and then travel to the tournament for the two "turns" of spring.  Then you need to explain why neither Lyanna nor Robert are engaged with each other during the first evening at the tournament.  There are too many things that point to the announcement of betrothal being after the tourney, and the announcement and discussion are at Winterfell.

Your arguments are sound, but you're nonetheless dismissing textual evidence (Yandel saying they had "long been betrothed") by using speculation. We don't know how hard it would be to travel to Winterfell during winter (very difficult, no doubt), but I would point out that, technically, being fostered in the Eyrie during winter is also next to impossible. Plus, Robert remembers eating an orange at the Eyrie...
I think the text says that Robert and Lyanna's betrothal took place in the summer, probably in 278AC (the year the Baratheon parents left for Volantis, which suggests it was summer at the time) ; Robert would have been 16 at the time, and a man grown. One might also consider 277AC or 279AC. At any rate, it seems that there was a summer during which Ned and Robert were together at the Eyrie and during which the betrothal was announced at Winterfell. That the betrothal was prior to Harrenhal also explains nicely why Robert started hating Rhaegar so much after Lyanna as crowned QoLaB. .

I agree with LiveFirstDieLater that Jon cannot be both younger than Robb and 8-9 months older than Dany if the Dany we know is indeed the one who was born on Dragonstone 9 months or so after the rape of Rhaella that Jaime witnessed. In fact, even if Jon was born at the ToJ shortly before Ned arrived there, the 8-9 months stated by Martin are a bit too much, because of the time it must have taken Ned to reach the ToJ. Jon should be only 6-7 months older than Dany, not 8-9. It's possible Martin made a mistake...
It's also possible that the reason he mentioned a 9-month interval is because Jon and Dany have the same mother. A bit of a stretch, yes, but who knows... We don't have that much to go on.

Now, if we focus on the main problems of R+L=J&D, I'd say:
- The assertion that Cat couldn't be wrong about Jon's age is based on the assumptions that Ned travelled swiftly from Starfall to Winterfell with Jon AND that Cat got a good look at the baby when he came back. Both assumptions are debatable. In fact, I find it doubtful that Cat saw Jon before he was able to walk (why would anyone want her to see her husband's bastard before it became necessary?).
- What Harwin says to Arya does raise the question of what the Winterfell household believed about Jon (and his age). There's just no way around the fact that his story does not compute with Jon's official age. Maybe he was just trying to appease Arya, but the fact that many people (including Cat) believed Ashara could be the mother is very intriguing. Obviously the best time for Ned and Ashara to have a fling is before Brandon's death ; maybe Cat believed that Ned somehow saw Ashara again, while the household believes (or knows) otherwise. It's kind of odd that Ashara would be considered as a likely mother in the first place.
- We do not have the SSM saying the woman in Dany's vision is Elia. I mean no disrespect, but I've seen SSMs mentioned on the forum before that turned out to having been distorted or non-existant.

All this being said, MtnLion, I like your idea that maybe Aerys raped Ashara at Harrenhal, though it's hard to reconcile with Barristan's thoughts on Ashara's dishonour imho. Generally speaking, it shows we have contradicting bits of information from various dubious sources (neither Barristan nor Harwin can be entirely trusted). And then, we have Martin saying Ashara did not stay in Starfall throughout the war.
A mess is what this all is. I'm looking forward to having new information, hopefully from a reliable source.
 

[princess_snow]

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I agree completely that kids develope at different rates, even siblings can start walking talking etc at very different ages.

I would say that the traditional timeline would have Rob older by a matter of weeks at most...

Of course, I'm not convinced... I'm making the argument that Jon is several months older than Rob. I think there are a few reasons why this is more likely... But maybe first among them is that Gerold Hightower stayed at the Tower of Joy after being sent to find Rhaegar... And his quote, as remembered by Ned, is about how the Kingsguard don't run because they swore a vow. Presumably this is because there is a Targ heir at the Tower of Joy... But that only makes sense if there was a boy born, if they didn't know it was a boy they wouldn't know it would be the heir (see the Dance with Dragons and Targ inheritance traditions)

I agree re your opinion that  Jon may be older than Rob. I think youve made some compelling points. I also agree the Kingsguard stayed on to guard the Targ heir - whom I always felt was Jon however your point is so on the mark I think in regards to the fact it had to be a boy already born ! This is a fascinating thread Ive really enjoyed reading it. I have always felt something was iffy about Dany and the point she is around 9 months younger than JOn but couldnt quite put my finger on it and am not as familiar with the timelines as most here as IM faiirly new.  

[LiveFirstDieLater]

15 hours ago, Coon's Age said:

Well, there was already a baby boy named Aegon.  If child #2 is called Aegon, would you name a third baby Aegon too?  Jon is not Aegon. 

Ok, while this is a simple critique I think it's a very valid question... And one I've grappled with.

I would propose two possible answers, neither of which will likely satisfy you.

1. Rhaegar never met Elia's son Aegon, and it was Elia who named him. Unless I'm missing something, which is very possible, the only bit of evidence we have of Rhaegar naming Elia's baby Aegon is Dany's vision... In fact if you look at the timeline of the tourney and Elia's pregnancy, and how if Rhaegar was there for the birth he must have left right away afterwards... I would ask if he even saw Elia's boy before returning from the Tower of Joy... When he would have already have named Jon, Aegon.

2. And this one is kind of a lamer answer, but Rhaegar is a guy to make big decisions based on prophesy... And one to change his mind about what these prophesies required. So much like he thought he was the Prince that was Promised because of one comet, then it was his kid by Elia because of another comet, what if he just decided it was about Lyanna's kid and had to go with the Aegon name again...

Interestingly most of the quotes about Elia's Aegon are about the babies death or the comet that was seen at his conception over Kings Landing... I can't find anything that puts Rhaegar with the child other than Dany's vision...

Because I have to ask, if that is Elia and Aegon in the vision, then you think Griff's Aegon is the real deal? Or that Rhaegar was wrong about his being the "Song of Ice and Fire"? But then why would Dany get a vision of it? I don't get how it's supposed to make sense if it is Elia and Aegon...

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

12 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Your arguments are sound, but you're nonetheless dismissing textual evidence (Yandel saying they had "long been betrothed") by using speculation. We don't know how hard it would be to travel to Winterfell during winter (very difficult, no doubt), but I would point out that, technically, being fostered in the Eyrie during winter is also next to impossible. Plus, Robert remembers eating an orange at the Eyrie...
I think the text says that Robert and Lyanna's betrothal took place in the summer, probably in 278AC (the year the Baratheon parents left for Volantis, which suggests it was summer at the time) ; Robert would have been 16 at the time, and a man grown. One might also consider 277AC or 279AC. At any rate, it seems that there was a summer during which Ned and Robert were together at the Eyrie and during which the betrothal was announced at Winterfell. That the betrothal was prior to Harrenhal also explains nicely why Robert started hating Rhaegar so much after Lyanna as crowned QoLaB. .

I agree with LiveFirstDieLater that Jon cannot be both younger than Robb and 8-9 months younger than Dany if the Dany we know is indeed the one who was born on Dragonstone 9 months or so after the rape of Rhaella that Jaime witnessed. In fact, even if Jon was born at the ToJ shortly before Ned arrived there, the 8-9 months stated by Martin are a bit too much, because of the time it must have taken Ned to reach the ToJ. Jon should be only 6-7 months younger than Dany, not 8-9. It's possible Martin made a mistake...
It's also possible that the reason he mentioned a 9-month interval is because Jon and Dany have the same mother. A bit of a stretch, yes, but who knows... We don't have that much to go on.

Now, if we focus on the main problems of R+L=J&D, I'd say:
- The assertion that Cat couldn't be wrong about Jon's age is based on the assumptions that Ned travelled swiftly from Starfall to Winterfell with Jon AND that Cat got a good look at the baby when he came back. Both assumptions are debatable. In fact, I find it doubtful that Cat saw Jon before he was able to walk (why would anyone want her to see her husband's bastard before it became necessary?).
- What Harwin says to Arya does raise the question of what the Winterfell household believed about Jon (and his age). There's just no way around the fact that his story does not compute with Jon's official age. Maybe he was just trying to appease Arya, but the fact that many people (including Cat) believed Ashara could be the mother is very intriguing. Obviously the best time for Ned and Ashara to have a fling is before Brandon's death ; maybe Cat believed that Ned somehow saw Ashara again, while the household believes (or knows) otherwise. It's kind of odd that Ashara would be considered as a likely mother in the first place.
- We do not have the SSM saying the woman in Dany's vision is Elia. I mean no disrespect, but I've seen SSMs mentioned on the forum before that turned out to having been distorted or non-existant.

All this being said, MtnLion, I like your idea that maybe Aerys raped Ashara at Harrenhal, though it's hard to reconcile with Barristan's thoughts on Ashara's dishonour imho. Generally speaking, it shows we have contradicting bits of information from various dubious sources (neither Barristan nor Harwin can be entirely trusted). And then, we have Martin saying Ashara did not stay in Starfall throughout the war.
A mess is what this all is. I'm looking forward to having new information, hopefully from a reliable source.
 

Always nice to get some backup, and good to know I'm not the only one who sees some inconsistencies here...

I assume you meant Jon being 8-9 months older than Dany, if so then huzza once again...

while I can't prove that there isn't an SSM that says for sure it was Elia in the vision, until I see one that does say this I'm going to keep theorizing, because as you say I've seen a lot of misinterpreted/twisted/made up SSM "facts".

One more point on the household Jon's mom theories...

I think it odd that all the possibilities for the Mom to Ned's bastard that have been put forward don't fit with him being born at the time of the Tower of Joy showdown. Now one could say this just is evidence of R+L=J, but there could be more to it as well.

Jon mom stories:

Ashara/Wylla: I haven't heard a convincing story for this happening at any time other than the Tourney at Harrenhall... Clearly I don't think it did, just saying that timeline/age wise it wouldn't fit at all with a ToJ birth.

Fisherman's daughter: supposedly when Ned is fleeing the Vale after Brandon and Rickard are killed... Would have Jon born well before the ToJ (pregnant well before the siege of storms end started, which lasted about a year and ended before Ned shows up at the ToJ).

I'm working on a larger post that lays out my whole theory... But for now it is really great to be able to float some thoughts and let people poke holes wherever they can...

 

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

6 hours ago, princess_snow said:

I agree re your opinion that  Jon may be older than Rob. I think youve made some compelling points. I also agree the Kingsguard stayed on to guard the Targ heir - whom I always felt was Jon however your point is so on the mark I think in regards to the fact it had to be a boy already born ! This is a fascinating thread Ive really enjoyed reading it. I have always felt something was iffy about Dany and the point she is around 9 months younger than JOn but couldnt quite put my finger on it and am not as familiar with the timelines as most here as IM faiirly new.  

Hey I'm not new, and the timeline is still a nightmare... But glad the idea is intriguing at least... It's always bothered me that GRRM made such a big deal about the inheritance traditions and at the same time the big red flag for R+L=J is the kingsgaurd at the Tower of Joy...

[MtnLion]

13 hours ago, Rippounet said:

I think the text says that Robert and Lyanna's betrothal took place in the summer, probably in 278AC (the year the Baratheon parents left for Volantis, which suggests it was summer at the time) ; Robert would have been 16 at the time, and a man grown. One might also consider 277AC or 279AC.

You are neglecting a very important fact:

The night that Lyanna's betrothal was announced, at Winterfell, she brings up Mya Stone, and Ned reflects that he had held the baby.  Mya was born the year before the year of the false spring, during the winter of 280. 

[MtnLion]

13 hours ago, Rippounet said:

I find it doubtful that Cat saw Jon before he was able to walk

Catelyn arrived in Winterfell to see Jon and his wetnurse already installed. 

[MtnLion]

15 hours ago, Rippounet said:

- We do not have the SSM saying the woman in Dany's vision is Elia. I mean no disrespect, but I've seen SSMs mentioned on the forum before that turned out to having been distorted or non-existant.

We have had people make incorrect reports to SSMs and later had them erased or stricken out.  (A good one is the reported fact that Azhor Ahai and tPtwP are the same, while it may or may not be true, it had been reported as true once, but is now stricken out.  GRRM must have said that he said no such thing.)  In this particular case, there is more than just the SSM to go on.  "There must be one more" makes no sense if this is the third child (Aegon already born, even though we know he was about a year old when he died).  The child appears to be Aegon, for the conversation to make sense, and we must presume that Elia was Aegon's mother, though GRRM has left that little gem in the gray in other SSMs.  Sometimes a peach is just a peach.  I am pretty sure that the referenced SSM for Elia being the woman in the vision was in one particular online chat with GRRM.  If I get a chance I will look for it, again, but please help yourself to searching them, as well. 

Footnote:  I cannot search these sites, currently.  But the chats are listed here.  Working from there to more recent ones, check the online chat logs (not interviews), and search for "Elia", I believe that you will find it. (I really wish now, that I had begun my database of SSMs long ago.) 

15 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Cat believed that Ned somehow saw Ashara again

We know that he did, when he returned Dawn.  (Coincidentally, this is where Ashara might have asked about Elia and her children, and Ned would not be very tactful about Aegon's condition.  This would have a huge impact on Ashara, if Aegon had been her son.  She might have been gloomy enough for no one to have second thoughts about her committing suicide later.)  But, he has Jon when he returns Dawn. 

Let's look at the timeline:

• Harrenhal was about a year before Aegon was born
• Aegon was born about a year before the sack of King's Landing
• Daenerys was born nine months after the sack of King's Landing
• Jon is 8 to 9 months older than Daenerys

Jon was born at about the time to about a month after the sack of King's Landing, QED. 

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, MtnLion said:

You are neglecting a very important fact:

The night that Lyanna's betrothal was announced, at Winterfell, she brings up Mya Stone, and Ned reflects that he had held the baby.  Mya was born the year before the year of the false spring, during the winter of 280. 

Indeed, this is a major oversight of mine. I was wondering why you were so quick to dismiss Yandel. Now I understand.

However, correct me if I'm wrong but if Mya is 18 in 298AC, then her birth could have been in 279AC, making it possible for Ned to "hold her in his arms" before heading to Winterfell for the betrothal.

1 hour ago, MtnLion said:

Catelyn arrived in Winterfell to see Jon and his wetnurse already installed. 

But does "see" here mean that she had the opportunity to really look closely at the boy? And how quickly did Cat arrive in Winterfell herself? In other words, isn't it possible that Ned took a rather long time to travel from Starfall to Winterfell, and that Cat herself arrived only once she was certain that Ned would be there as well? Isn't it even possible that Cat left Riverrun only once she had word that Ned had reached Winterfell?
Since some trips take months in Westeros, even assuming Ned took a boat from Starfall to Winterfell, Cat herself could have reached Winterfell some time in 284AC, when Jon would already be about a year old.
 

43 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

 "There must be once more" makes no sense if this is the third child (Aegon already born, even though we know he was about a year old when he died).  The child appears to be Aegon, for the conversation to make sense,

Yes, this is the best argument, one that is almost impossible to dismiss.

Visions are a tricky thing however. It is not clear how true Dany's vision is. The text is ambiguous. as well:

Quote

He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads."

While the first part of the vision (Rhaegar thinking 'Aegon' is TPtwP) is confirmed by Aemon, the second part (Rhaegar thinking he must have another child) has never been confirmed. Which makes it possible that in this vision, "Rhaegar" is, in fact, talking to Dany. In which case the two first heads are Dany and Jon rather than Rhaenys and Elia.

Of course, this leaves us with the problem of having two Aegons...

Quote

we must presume that Elia was Aegon's mother, though GRRM has left that little gem in the gray in other SSMs.  Sometimes a peach is just a peach.  I am pretty sure that the referenced SSM for Elia being the woman in the vision was in one particular online chat with GRRM.  If I get a chance I will look for it, again, but please help yourself to searching them, as well. 

There is indeed a line on westeros.org saying Martin has confirmed it, but no link.

Quote

We know that he did, when he returned Dawn.

Yes, but in order for Ashara to be Jon's mom, assuming Jon is younger than Robb and was born shortly after the sack of King's Landing, this would mean Ned and Ashara conceived Jon during the war.

You gave me a crazy idea though... Will try to think about all this...

 

[MtnLion]

40 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Indeed, this is a major oversight of mine. I was wondering why you were so quick to dismiss Yandel. Now I understand.

However, correct me if I'm wrong but if Mya is 18 in 298AC, then her birth could have been in 279AC, making it possible for Ned to "hold her in his arms" before heading to Winterfell for the betrothal.

Still winter.  Ned went directly from the Eyrie to Harrenhal.  It seems that Robert may have offered the betrothal at the tourney, though that does not fit Yandel's "long" comment.  It could be that and agreement had been forged when the kids were young, and formalized when they reached maturity, by the announcement.  That seems logical when looking closely at what Catelyn remembers about her own betrothal to Brandon.  But, Robert's and Lyanna's ignoring each other the first night at the tourney does not make sense, if they knew that they were meant for each other . . .

44 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

But does "see" here mean that she had the opportunity to really look closely at the boy? And how quickly did Cat arrive in Winterfell herself? In other words, isn't it possible that Ned took a rather long time to travel from Starfall to Winterfell, and that Cat herself arrived only once she was certain that Ned would be there as well? Isn't it even possible that Cat left Riverrun only once she had word that Ned had reached Winterfell?
Since some trips take months in Westeros, even assuming Ned took a boat from Starfall to Winterfell, Cat herself could have reached Winterfell some time in 284AC, when Jon would already be about a year old.

Cately recalls travelling with a newborn Robb.  It does not make sense that Catelyn would think that Ned had fathered Jon after their wedding, if Jon did not appear younger than Robb.  Robb himself thinks of Jon as younger.  All of Winterfell must think of Jon as younger. 

I actually believe that Ned went to Starfall to take ship and passage back north.  Howland is with him making landfall at Greywater Watch possible, just a nice coincidence.  Another landing could be Deepwood Motte, or there are many others on the west coast that would work to get Ned home in a hurry.  If he had sent a raven from Starfall to Riverrun, it is possible for him to beat Catelyn, by sea, as she travels by land. 

53 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

You gave me a crazy idea though... Will try to think about all this...

I am having fun with it.  This does become boring, if I can't throw in some of my favorites.  Tyrion is Aerys', and Ashara was dishonored by the king, Elia had a stillborn daughter.  (That last got deleted, like lightning fast, on the HBO board when I first put it up.  I think it struck a nerve, somewhere, considering what they allow.) 

[Rippounet]

9 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Still winter.  Ned went directly from the Eyrie to Harrenhal.  It seems that Robert may have offered the betrothal at the tourney, though that does not fit Yandel's "long" comment.  It could be that and agreement had been forged when the kids were young, and formalized when they reached maturity, by the announcement.  That seems logical when looking closely at what Catelyn remembers about her own betrothal to Brandon.  But, Robert's and Lyanna's ignoring each other the first night at the tourney does not make sense, if they knew that they were meant for each other . . .

Silly question: do we know for a fact that it was winter in 279AC?

The reason I'm reluctant to see the betrothal after Harrenhal is also because it means Lyanna then went to the Riverlands.
This gives this lady a surprising freedom of movement...

I am having fun with it.  This does become boring, if I can't throw in some of my favorites.  Tyrion is Aerys', and Ashara was dishonored by the king, Elia had a stillborn daughter.  (That last got deleted, like lightning fast, on the HBO board when I first put it up.  I think it struck a nerve, somewhere, considering what they allow.) 

I gave the idea of Elia having a stillborn child some thought. It allows a surprising number of interesting possibilities, especially since any child conceived at Harrenhal would have been more or less of an age with that child. Either Ashara or Lyanna could have fallen pregnant... Or both.

It's fun, but I wish Martin would just hurry up and finish the next book...

[MtnLion]

2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Silly question: do we know for a fact that it was winter in 279AC?

The reason I'm reluctant to see the betrothal after Harrenhal is also because it means Lyanna then went to the Riverlands.
This gives this lady a surprising freedom of movement...

I am not sure what you mean by Lyanna travelling to the Riverlands.  We do not know for certain that it was winter in 279, but we do know that it was winter in 280, because the false spring came after it, in 281.  That false spring lasted just two turns (months).  During those two turns we have a tourney planned and held, and everyone attending, etc. 

We can go at it about when Mya was born, but to me it is pretty well set that she was born later in 280, like after mid-year.  I would expect her to be more than a few weeks old before Ned holds her, too.  Even if Mya were born earlier, we would still need an explanation for why Lyanna and Robert ignored their betrothed at the first night get together of the tourney. 

2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

I gave the idea of Elia having a stillborn child some thought. It allows a surprising number of interesting possibilities, especially since any child conceived at Harrenhal would have been more or less of an age with that child. Either Ashara or Lyanna could have fallen pregnant... Or both.

Lyanna is too young, and ignores that no Starks say anything about it.  Ashara was dishonored and gave birth.  Ashara was a close friend with Elia during the first few years.  Few years is more than 2, yet Rhaenys was just three when she died.  Suffice it to say that Elia and Ashara were together from wedding until after Aegon's birth.  Rhaenys had dark features of the Dornish, but Aegon had white hair.  Ashara is not that Dornish in appearance, sporting "laughing purple eyes."  (The purpose of Darkstar is to show that Daynes can have white haired children.)  It would take a white haired father to give Ashara a white haired child.  We are then limited to Aerys and Rhaegar, and if Rhaegar had been the cause of the dishonor, why wouldn't Ashara appeal to Aerys for redress?  I think Barristan knew who, he just doesn't reveal it. 

2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

It's fun, but I wish Martin would just hurry up and finish the next book...

Completely agree with this.  I fear that I or GRRM will die before the ending is written. 

[Rippounet]

7 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

I am not sure what you mean by Lyanna travelling to the Riverlands.

That's where she was abducted by Rhaegar. If her betrothal was after Harrenhal, it means she somehow was free to go back to the Riverlands without any of her brothers or her betrothed. I find that kind of odd. If she was going to Brandon's wedding she could have travelled with him from Winterfell. Why travel on her own?
That's why I always assumed that Lyanna did not come from Winterfell in the first place, but had stayed south of the Neck after Harrenhal.

Of course, either way the question remains: what was Lyanna doing on her own in the Riverlands?

7 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

We do not know for certain that it was winter in 279, but we do know that it was winter in 280, because the false spring came after it, in 281.  That false spring lasted just two turns (months).  During those two turns we have a tourney planned and held, and everyone attending, etc. 

We can go at it about when Mya was born, but to me it is pretty well set that she was born later in 280, like after mid-year.  I would expect her to be more than a few weeks old before Ned holds her, too.  Even if Mya were born earlier, we would still need an explanation for why Lyanna and Robert ignored their betrothed at the first night get together of the tourney.

I think it's far easier to find an explanation for why Lyanna and Robert ignored each other at Harrenhal than to find an explanation why Lyanna did not travel with Brandon.  

I think it's also easier to assume Mya was born earlier than to dismiss Yandel's quote on the betrothal. I mean... Trying to reconstruct the chronology is hard enough without ignoring some of the textual elements.

7 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Lyanna is too young, and ignores that no Starks say anything about it.

Oh, I wouldn't know about age in ASOAIF... But, yeah, Lyanna's out.

7 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

 Ashara was dishonored and gave birth.  Ashara was a close friend with Elia during the first few years.  Few years is more than 2, yet Rhaenys was just three when she died.  Suffice it to say that Elia and Ashara were together from wedding until after Aegon's birth.  Rhaenys had dark features of the Dornish, but Aegon had white hair.  Ashara is not that Dornish in appearance, sporting "laughing purple eyes."  (The purpose of Darkstar is to show that Daynes can have white haired children.)  It would take a white haired father to give Ashara a white haired child.  We are then limited to Aerys and Rhaegar, and if Rhaegar had been the cause of the dishonor, why wouldn't Ashara appeal to Aerys for redress?  I think Barristan knew who, he just doesn't reveal it. 

Yes, it's possible that Ashara was raped by Aerys at Harrenhal. If there was a child, either it was killed instead of Aegon, either it wasn't and is Young Griff. Both scenarios have interesting implications of course.
There's one element that supports the idea of Ashara falling pregnant: the fact that she left Elia's side.

But all this has nothing to do with Jon. It's more about Young Griff's identity than anything else.

[MtnLion]

24 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

That's where she was abducted by Rhaegar. If her betrothal was after Harrenhal, it means she somehow was free to go back to the Riverlands without any of her brothers or her betrothed. I find that kind of odd. If she was going to Brandon's wedding she could have travelled with him from Winterfell. Why travel on her own?
That's why I always assumed that Lyanna did not come from Winterfell in the first place, but had stayed south of the Neck after Harrenhal.

Of course, either way the question remains: what was Lyanna doing on her own in the Riverlands?

I think it's far easier to find an explanation for why Lyanna and Robert ignored each other at Harrenhal than to find an explanation why Lyanna did not travel with Brandon.  

I think it's also easier to assume Mya was born earlier than to dismiss Yandel's quote on the betrothal. I mean... Trying to reconstruct the chronology is hard enough without ignoring some of the textual elements.

Okay, I see.  Brandon is at Riverrun to answer Littlefinger's challenge.  Lyanna's movements during that time are a mystery, except that we know that she was near Harrenhal when Rhaegar "abducted her".  We don't know how many retainers she had with her, and Daenerys reflects that Lyanna was taken at swordpoint.  It seems somewhat rash to assume that she was travelling alone as the reason to challenge the facts that we have.  Yes? 

As for Mya, I have been around the bush on the matter of her birth, at some great length.  We at least agree that Ned is not going to travel needlessly to Winterfell during a winter, and Mya was born during a winter. 

[Rippounet]

9 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Okay, I see.  Brandon is at Riverrun to answer Littlefinger's challenge.  Lyanna's movements during that time are a mystery, except that we know that she was near Harrenhal when Rhaegar "abducted her".  We don't know how many retainers she had with her, and Daenerys reflects that Lyanna was taken at swordpoint.  It seems somewhat rash to assume that she was travelling alone as the reason to challenge the facts that we have.  Yes?

What I mean by "alone" is "not with anyone of her family."
Of course, noblewomen can travel with a limited escort if they want (we have Elia's example, presumably).

But why? Both her father and brothers were going to the wedding. Why travel on her own?
Well, that remains a mystery indeed. Perhaps this is more important than it seems -perhaps not.

Oh, btw, I forgot. As you pointed out, the Harrenhal tournament was held in a false spring that lasted only two months.
Which means... That the planning must have started during winter. A small oddity I guess (and unconnected to the rest of our chat).

9 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

As for Mya, I have been around the bush on the matter of her birth, at some great length.  We at least agree that Ned is not going to travel needlessly to Winterfell during a winter, and Mya was born during a winter. 

She was? I mean, the text says so? Don't remember this...
I don't want to test your patience, but Ned says that Robert was younger than her when he fathered her. At that time, Robert is 36, and Mya is said to be 17 or 18. For Robert to be younger, Mya must in fact be at least 18, putting her birth in 280AC at most. But 279AC is at least as likely, if not more. And if she was born in 279AC... It could have been summer still...

 

[MtnLion]

16 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Oh, btw, I forgot. As you pointed out, the Harrenhal tournament was held in a false spring that lasted only two months.
Which means... That the planning must have started during winter. A small oddity I guess (and unconnected to the rest of our chat).

Why can't they plan the tourney when the weather is favorable for a month, hold their ten day tourney, and have the weather go sour a fortnight or so afterwards; as an example?

16 hours ago, Rippounet said:

I don't want to test your patience, but Ned says that Robert was younger than her when he fathered her. At that time, Robert is 36, and Mya is said to be 17 or 18. For Robert to be younger, Mya must in fact be at least 18, putting her birth in 280AC at most. But 279AC is at least as likely, if not more. And if she was born in 279AC... It could have been summer still...

Well, let's clear up the season when Mya was born.  Early 281 is the tourney of the false spring, it was preceded by . . . winter.  I don't know of any one year winters on record in Westeros, so I always assume that winter will be two or more years. 

Mya can be 17 and have Robert younger than her when he sired her.  Robert sires Mya nine months before she is born, so add nine moths to Mya's age before expecting Robert's age to be less than twice Mya's.  If Mya is just over 17, adding nine months makes her 18, and Robert is 36, so it works.  However, when we get x or x+1 for an age from GRRM it usually indicates the proximity of a birthday, that is soon to pass or just has passed.  I believe that that particular passage is saying that Mya is between 17 years 10 months and 18 years 2 months in age.  That is the disagreement that I have had with the author of that little bit of bad information.  (BTW GRRM plus Numbers, nope, nope , nope) 

[Rippounet]

On 23/03/2016 at 5:30 PM, MtnLion said:

Why can't they plan the tourney when the weather is favorable for a month, hold their ten day tourney, and have the weather go sour a fortnight or so afterwards; as an example?

Because the tourney was announced in late 280AC. On this at least I think we can agree to trust Yandel.

I guess the simple explanation here is that it was probably announced that the tournament would take place "with the return of the spring" but with no specific date.

On 23/03/2016 at 5:30 PM, MtnLion said:

Well, let's clear up the season when Mya was born.  Early 281 is the tourney of the false spring, it was preceded by . . . winter.  I don't know of any one year winters on record in Westeros, so I always assume that winter will be two or more years.

So do I, but since there was a "false spring" in 281AC, it's still possible that the winter started in late 279AC or early 280AC. Mya could have been conceived in early 279AC, and been born in late 279AC, shortly before the betrothal and shortly before the winter.

I think "my" chronology would look something like this:
- Mya conceived in early 279AC (January/February).
- Mya born in late 279AC (October/November)
- Betrothal in late 279AC (November/December).
- Winter at the very end of 279AC (December) or very early 280AC (January/February).
- False Spring and Harrenhal in 281AC (after more or less a year and a half of winter).
- Return of the winter in 281AC (thus giving us a "normal" two-year winter).

This would make Mya 18 years old in  298AC, which fits the estimates given by both Ned and Cat.

On 23/03/2016 at 5:30 PM, MtnLion said:

Mya can be 17 and have Robert younger than her when he sired her.  Robert sires Mya nine months before she is born, so add nine moths to Mya's age before expecting Robert's age to be less than twice Mya's.  If Mya is just over 17, adding nine months makes her 18, and Robert is 36, so it works.  However, when we get x or x+1 for an age from GRRM it usually indicates the proximity of a birthday, that is soon to pass or just has passed.  I believe that that particular passage is saying that Mya is between 17 years 10 months and 18 years 2 months in age.  That is the disagreement that I have had with the author of that little bit of bad information.  (BTW GRRM plus Numbers, nope, nope , nope) 

I think this is the main problem here. GRRM isn't great with numbers so minor mistakes could be hiding everywhere in the text.

Yet, this is precisely why I see no reason to dismiss Yandel's claim that Robert and Lyanna had "long been betrothed" at Harrenhal. This information serves a purpose: it tells us that Robert already hated Rhaegar after Harrenhal. It even makes it possible for Robert to jump to conclusions after Lyanna's abduction (like Brandon Stark).
This, combined the fact that Ned thinks that Robert was still a boy when he fathered Mya...

I just don't see any clear evidence that the betrothal was after Harrenhal. If there is a mistake, it could very well be Martin making that particular winter too short ; and even this can be explained, since as I said winter "came back with a vengeance" in 281AC.

 

[MtnLion]

Mya Stone

Birth

Mya Stone was noted to be 17 or 18 years old by Catelyn Tully in 298 AC. In addition, Ned Stark remembers, in 298 AC, that Mya Stone was 17 or 18 years old, and that Robert Baratheon had been younger than that when he fathered her.

Being 17 or 18 years old in 298 AC would give Mya the following options: 

 16 turning 17 in 298 AC, placing her birth in 281 AC
 17 turning 18 in 298 AC, placing her birth in 280 AC
 18 turning 19 in 298 AC, placing her birth in 279 AC  (Please note that this is a stretch, given the text.  It hints at a motive on the author's part.  It seems that a birth year of 280AC for Mya is very inconvenient to many.) 

Robert Baratheon was born in 262 AC. When Eddard Stark remembers Mya's age to be either "17 or 18", he recalls that Robert was younger when fathering her. While Eddard is unsure about which age is correct for Mya, he is certain that Robert was younger than she is now, indicating that Robert was younger than 17 (or 18) when conceiving Mya. Thus, Mya's conception cannot have occured later than 279 AC, with Robert being 16 to-be-turning 17 later that year.  (Thus, Mya's conception cannot have occured later than the end of 280 AC, with Robert being 17 to-be-turning 18 at year's end.)*

 The three possible birth years for Mya would then give the following options:
 If Mya was born in 279 AC, she was conceived in either 278 AC or 279 AC
 If Mya was born in 280 AC, she was conceived in either 279 AC or 280 AC
 If Mya was born in 281 AC, she was conceived in either 280 AC or 281 AC

Since Mya cannot have been conceived in (280 after the third month or thereabouts depending on the month of 281 that Harrenhal is held AC and) 281 AC, She cannot have been born in 281 AC (after or shortly before the tourney, since Ned had held her before Lyanna's betrothal announcement), leaving only 279 AC and 280 AC (to very early 281AC, a few months before the tourney) as her possible years of birth. No further specifications can be given.

Note: The appendix of A Storm of Swords notes Mya to be 19 years old. It is unknown whether this appendix indicates that Mya is 19 in 299 AC (born in 280) (as a large portion of the book covers events taking place in 299 AC) or whether it indicates that she was 19 in 300 AC (born in 281, which we know is somewhat unlikely depending on the month of the tourney) (as the Vale appears only in portions of the story taking place in 300 AC). As such, several options are left for Mya:

Being 19 in 299 AC 18 turning 19 in 299 AC, placing her birth in 280 AC
                                19 turning 20 in 299 AC, placing her birth in 279 AC  (Again a bit of a stretch to the text.  It would be too logical to just assume that Mya had her nineteenth birthday at the end of 299 or the beginning of 300AC.)
Being 19 in 300 AC 18 turning 19 in 300 AC, placing her birth in 281 AC
                                19 turning 20 in 300 AC, placing her birth in 280 AC

As Mya cannot have been born in 281 AC (before the start of the tourney), she cannot have been 18 turning 19 in 300 AC. No further specifications can be given.

* Bad logic by the author, the correct logic is:  if she is (latest) 18, Robert was less than 18 when he sired her.  Then the latest that Robert could have sired her would be before the end of the year (Robert's birthday) in 280.  (This is just Ned's thoughts, no real precision assigned.) 

As it turns out, with everything we know, 280 is the most likely year of Mya's birth. 

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, MtnLion said:

As it turns out, with everything we know, 280 is the most likely year of Mya's birth. 

Ha ha, yes, I won't deny that. But I still think that's not enough to dismiss Yandel, since putting Mya's birth in 279AC is not impossible...

Most importantly, I think we've probably given way more thought to this specific detail of the chronology than Martin himself. I mean, either of us could be right, if that's what Martin had in mind when he wrote the books. What we've sucessfully demonstrated is that either way there is something wrong somewhere. If you're right, it means Yandel is unreliable (which we already know). If I'm right, it means that Martin isn't great with time periods (which we already know as well).

The more time I spend on this forum and the more I see how each "big" theory runs into a problem: we can't entirely rely on the information we have. Time periods are vague at best, and characters are often unreliable. In fact, even the most common theories run into the same problems. There just isn't that much evidence to work with.
And this may be what makes the books great in a way. If everything was clearcut there would be far less theories and far less debates. Years from now, when the biggest mysteries are revealed, the new readers will probably wonder why this series lead to so much discussion. They won't have our doubts or our uncertainties. And some of us will likely bitch about the fact that minor inconsistencies or mistakes mislead us for years.

[Makk]

I haven't read this entire thread but I think what Dany saw was true, a vision of what really happened in the past. But Rhaeger simply made a mistake with the prophecy and thought Aegon was the prince that was promised but there was no Ice in him. He would later realise this himself.