Aegon is not a Blackfyre

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 hours ago, Isobel Harper said:

 

We don't know enough details about the event to say that Elia "abandoned" her daughter - in favor of her real son or otherwise.  Keep in mind that Rhaenys was found and murdered under her father's bed.  Rhaenys has her own bedchamber, so it's unlikely she was in her father's chambers at the time of the break in.  That is to say, we know where the Lannisters found her, but we don't where she was located when they managed to break into the Red Keep.  She could have been standing next to her mother most of the time, only to run away at the last minute. 

I wonder if The George had Rhaenys hiding under her father's bed to enhance the guilt of Jaime? Rhaegar left Jaime to protect his children, Jaime identifies with the Warrior, and the Warrior protects the children. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Asher said:

What lead us to think that it means Jon Snow is that Mel does think i'ts only the wheater, and she sucks at interpration of her own visons and she said herself that the fires don't lie but the interpretations can, so why she would not even think that this vision could have more than one meaning. She don't know it can be symbolic snow? I think she already knows Stannis is not AA since the begining, or why else she would give a false LB to him? She was just using Stannis, for what i don't know, don't seem like she is thinking Jon is AA too, she is a total mistery to me.

But i think we are getting a little off topic here. Sorry people.

Since she capitalized "Snow," she was saying that she saw Jon Snow in her visions, not snow falling or accumulated on the ground. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, In A Coat of Gold said:

Yeah. Varys could find a baby who is the exact same age with the exact same looks?

Nope. As The George has Tyrion point out for us, Aegon is a bit too young to be Rhaegar's first born son. But as for looks...

Quote

The Lyseni are also great breeders of slaves, mating beauty with beauty in hopes of producing ever more refined and lovely courtesans and bedslaves. The blood of Valyria still runs strong in Lys, where even the smallfolk oft boast pale skin, silver-gold hair, and the purple, lilac, and pale blue eyes of the dragonlords of old. The Lysene nobility values purity of blood above all and have produced many famous (and infamous) beauties. Even the Targaryen kings and princes of old sometimes turned to Lys in search of wives and paramours, for their blood as for their beauty.

The World of Ice and Fire

[Trogdor Targaryen]

5 hours ago, The Great and Mighty Poo said:

I'm of the belief that the "The Chosen one" is the red herring. So I don't have a dog in this fight but all she saw was Snow was not explicit. Most readers will never catch it. As snow is what has Stannis trapped at this time. Well at the time of her pov.

She actually saw Jon at a point if I recall correctly. True there was snow impeding Stannis at the time and that is what she'd find if she asked for Stannis. She didn't.  She asked to see Azor Ahai. 

Anyway, I kinda feel that there is a bit of a red herring with the whole chosen one thing and it would be a bit simplistic to claim that one hero would save the world. I'm sure Dany and her dragons will come into play in fighting the others but for now she is kinda preoccupied playing politics. She'll come to westeros and perhaps that will be what turns the tides but saying that she's the hero for that is tantamount to saying that Tyrions efforts at the blackwater didn't matter and that Tywin was the only one worth giving credit to. What if Stannis sacked the city before Tywin got there?  What if Dany gets to westeros and the others already killed everyone?

 

Anyway, I think that, and I know how ridiculous this sounds about this series, that the piss water prince story alone is too complicated to be the real case and this idea is just too much to unknot. I don't think this kid is the real Aegon. I'm sure he is a young Valyrian male named Aegon, be it blackfyre or commoner.

Personally I'm a fan of the Brightfyre theory.

[Trogdor Targaryen]

On 4/18/2016 at 1:49 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I would add that Tyrion trusted Varys with Shae. 

Also that Varys did well enough with Shae that even when Cersei thought she had Tyrions whore, it was the wrong girl.

[Isobel Harper]

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I wonder if The George had Rhaenys hiding under her father's bed to enhance the guilt of Jaime? Rhaegar left Jaime to protect his children, Jaime identifies with the Warrior, and the Warrior protects the children. 

Good point. 

The place of Rhaenys' death almost ironic, considering that Rhaegar spent most of his time with Lyanna during the war.  I imagine that Aegon holds some resentments towards Lyanna, and perhaps towards the Starks in general.  (Although, Aegon did manage to strike up a friendship with Tyrion, despite his family.)  I'm very eager to see Aegon's opinion of the Starks in Winds.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Isobel Harper said:

Good point. 

The place of Rhaenys' death almost ironic, considering that Rhaegar spent most of his time with Lyanna during the war.  I imagine that Aegon holds some resentments towards Lyanna, and perhaps towards the Starks in general.  (Although, Aegon did manage to strike up a friendship with Tyrion, despite his family.)  I'm very eager to see Aegon's opinion of the Starks in Winds.

Shouldn't we expect Aegon to feel about Lyanna the same as Daenerys does? 

[Trogdor Targaryen]

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Shouldn't we expect Aegon to feel about Lyanna the same as Daenerys does? 

It is a little bit different.  Dany is thinking of a girl her brother hooked up with. 

To Aegon it is a girl that his dad ran off to be with,  leaving the rest of his family in the grips of their insane relative while new took all the good security to protect his new squeeze.

Not to mention that dad running off with this chick cost Aegon not just a throne but a life of luxury. 

[Lord Asher Forrester]

On 17/04/2016 at 4:55 PM, A bowl of brown said:

I think the most popular blackfyre theory is that faegon is illyrios son with serra who was a blackfyre descendent and possibly varys sister. 

If hes not a blackfyre I struggle to see why there are so many references to them throughout the books and prequels.

Yeah a lot of people belives that, but I can't remember anything on any book that points out to Illyrio marrying a blackfyre or Varys and (F)Aegon being Blackfyres as well, so... Is that just speculation or someone find out some hints I do not know yet?

I mean, possibly the Blackfyres had descendents and they could be anywhere and could even be Varys or Faegon, but what proof we have one of these persons in particular is a Blackfyre? Is it just the phrase "black or red a dragon still a dragon." and the fact Young Griff ave the golden company on his side? Where is the sword BF?

[Trogdor Targaryen]

5 hours ago, Lord Asher said:

Yeah a lot of people belives that, but I can't remember anything on any book that points out to Illyrio marrying a blackfyre or Varys and (F)Aegon being Blackfyres as well, so... Is that just speculation or someone find out some hints I do not know yet?

I mean, possibly the Blackfyres had descendents and they could be anywhere and could even be Varys or Faegon, but what proof we have one of these persons in particular is a Blackfyre? Is it just the phrase "black or red a dragon still a dragon." and the fact Young Griff ave the golden company on his side? Where is the sword BF?

There is a connection made in the sworn sword between Blackfyre supporters and Blackberrys,  which Tyrion noticed a blackberry bush on Illyrios property. People have suggested that Blackfyre (sword) is the something special Illyrio left in the Chests for "Young Griff."

I feel an extremely significant aspect of this theory is how quickly Tyrion jumped to the Targaryen conclusion. Tyrion is pretty sharp. Unfortunately for him Cersei was right in telling him hes not as clever as he thinks he is (I hope I'm not confusing show here). An example of Tyrion underestimating himself is his inaccurate judgements of Sansa in kings landing. As quickly as we are told the secret identity of this character it's twist is pretty much done if he is a Targ.

Most importantly, however,  is the sellsword company The Golden Company, which has never broken a contract and, being founded by the staunchest of Blackfyre supporters,  Aegor Rivers, had a tradition of supporting and fighting for Blackfyre claimants. They were told who he is to get them to join the cause way before Jcon realized they would need to know. If he is Targaryen then the black or red dragon quote applies to this situation as well, being that they're branches off the same family tree, so that quote is almost misleading as it leads in too many directions.

I'm certain there's a lot I forgot.  I don't really care if he's legit. I just hope that if he is Targ that he's not AAR and regardless of origin I hope he is not such a good leader as Varys claims.

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 hours ago, Trogdor Targaryen said:

It is a little bit different.  Dany is thinking of a girl her brother hooked up with. 

To Aegon it is a girl that his dad ran off to be with,  leaving the rest of his family in the grips of their insane relative while new took all the good security to protect his new squeeze.

Not to mention that dad running off with this chick cost Aegon not just a throne but a life of luxury. 

Yeah, but he's a Targaryen. Dude oughta be able to have as many babes as he pleases, no? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, Lord Asher said:

Yeah a lot of people belives that, but I can't remember anything on any book that points out to Illyrio marrying a blackfyre or Varys and (F)Aegon being Blackfyres as well, so... Is that just speculation or someone find out some hints I do not know yet?

I mean, possibly the Blackfyres had descendents and they could be anywhere and could even be Varys or Faegon, but what proof we have one of these persons in particular is a Blackfyre? Is it just the phrase "black or red a dragon still a dragon." and the fact Young Griff ave the golden company on his side? Where is the sword BF?

That Aegon is The Blackfyre is a fill in the blank theory. There is no direct evidence that Illyrio or Varys is a Blackfyre. But that Varys has at least a drop of dragon blood is very strongly implied by his knowledge of the secrets of Maegor's castle. 

[Lord Asher Forrester]

13 hours ago, Trogdor Targaryen said:

There is a connection made in the sworn sword between Blackfyre supporters and Blackberrys,  which Tyrion noticed a blackberry bush on Illyrios property. People have suggested that Blackfyre (sword) is the something special Illyrio left in the Chests for "Young Griff."

I feel an extremely significant aspect of this theory is how quickly Tyrion jumped to the Targaryen conclusion. Tyrion is pretty sharp. Unfortunately for him Cersei was right in telling him hes not as clever as he thinks he is (I hope I'm not confusing show here). An example of Tyrion underestimating himself is his inaccurate judgements of Sansa in kings landing. As quickly as we are told the secret identity of this character it's twist is pretty much done if he is a Targ.

Most importantly, however,  is the sellsword company The Golden Company, which has never broken a contract and, being founded by the staunchest of Blackfyre supporters,  Aegor Rivers, had a tradition of supporting and fighting for Blackfyre claimants. They were told who he is to get them to join the cause way before Jcon realized they would need to know. If he is Targaryen then the black or red dragon quote applies to this situation as well, being that they're branches off the same family tree, so that quote is almost misleading as it leads in too many directions.

I'm certain there's a lot I forgot.  I don't really care if he's legit. I just hope that if he is Targ that he's not AAR and regardless of origin I hope he is not such a good leader as Varys claims.

Cool. i always was a supporter of this theory but i'm a bit of a skeptical. As Lost Melnibonian said it stil a theory direct evidence, like most of them are, but i did not know those possible clues you metioned, thanks.

[Lord Asher Forrester]

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

That Aegon is The Blackfyre is a fill in the blank theory. There is no direct evidence that Illyrio or Varys is a Blackfyre. But that Varys has at least a drop of dragon blood is very strongly implied by his knowledge of the secrets of Maegor's castle. 

Yeah Varys probbably shave his hair, just like Egg did, for a reason, but I don't think he knowing the passageways of Maegor Keep STRONGLY implies he has Valyrian Blood, it may imply, but as there is other very possible explanations I don't believe it is a strong implication. But at least it is something...

[watcher of the night]

Don't you think that if there is anyone in Westeros who knows the features of Rheagar and can spot a fake it is JonCon? The guy knew Rheagar since he was a boy, he loved him, heck probably still loves him. JonCon does not have the slightest doubt that Aegon is the son of Rheagar.

[The Ice Wolf of Loki]

1 hour ago, watcher of the night said:

JonCon does not have the slightest doubt that Aegon is the son of Rheagar.

Because Jon Con wants to believe. He wants it to be true so he might overlook small inconsistencies.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, Lord Asher said:

Yeah Varys probbably shave his hair, just like Egg did, for a reason, but I don't think he knowing the passageways of Maegor Keep STRONGLY implies he has Valyrian Blood, it may imply, but as there is other very possible explanations I don't believe it is a strong implication. But at least it is something...

As Catelyn approaches King’s Landing, she tells us that “only the blood of the dragon would ever know the secrets of the” Red Keep. Petyr notes to Catelyn that “Lord Varys knows all, and that “Lord Varys knows everything.” Petyr explains. . .

Quote

“Nothing happens in this city without Varys knowing. Oftimes he knows about it before it happens. He has informants everywhere. His little birds, he calls them. One of his little birds heard about your visit.”

[A bowl of brown]

There's also stuff like the black dragon sign washing up red with rust and other possible forshadowing. And then theres why illyrio gives a rats arse who sits the iron throne or about aegon at all if hes not his son

[Isobel Harper]

8 hours ago, Lord Asher said:

Yeah Varys probbably shave his hair, just like Egg did, for a reason, but I don't think he knowing the passageways of Maegor Keep STRONGLY implies he has Valyrian Blood, it may imply, but as there is other very possible explanations I don't believe it is a strong implication. But at least it is something...

 

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As Catelyn approaches King’s Landing, she tells us that “only the blood of the dragon would ever know the secrets of the” Red Keep. Petyr notes to Catelyn that “Lord Varys knows all, and that “Lord Varys knows everything.” Petyr explains. . .

Varys could very well have some Targaryen blood.  But is it from Targaryen or Blackfyre?  Blackfyres were exiled to Essos, but so was Aerion Targaryen, who could have fathered bastards in Lys. 

Anywho, Varys and Illyrio parallel two characters in The Rouge Prince: Blood and Cheese.  Blood and Cheese snuck into the queen's bedchamber and forced Queen Haelaena to choose one of her children to live.  Varys snuck to Elia with an offer to switch Aegon with the Pisswater Prince.  However, the question is, did Elia allow the swap?

"Why forget?" Tyrion smiled. "I've promised to deliver his sister's killers, alive or dead, as he prefers. After the war is done, to be sure."

Varys gave him a shrewd look. "My little birds tell me that Princess Elia cried a . . . certain name . . . when they came for her."

"Is a secret still a secret if everyone knows it?" In Casterly Rock, it was common knowledge that Gregor Clegane had killed Elia and her babe. They said he had raped the princess with her son's blood and brains still on his hands.

Varys tries to hint at the Aegon swap, although Tyrion remains oblivious.

[Isobel Harper]

1 hour ago, A bowl of brown said:

There's also stuff like the black dragon sign washing up red with rust and other possible forshadowing. And then theres why illyrio gives a rats arse who sits the iron throne or about aegon at all if hes not his son

The black dragon turning red could mean anything.  Yes, it could symbolize a Blackfyre in disguise as a Targaryen.  It could also symbolize a product of a Blackfyre-Targaryen union (like a descendant of a Blackfyre and a Brightflame).  Or it could symbolize the Golden Company changing allegiance from Blackfyre to Targaryen.

Varys and Illyrio are basically up to their old game.

"In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. In Pentos his accent marked him, and once he was known for a eunuch he was despised and beaten. Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city's footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they'd stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice."

Varys and Illyrio essentially stole Aegon and are selling him back for a price, although it's uncertain what that price is.