Sansa saving Winterfell, wildlings and the northerners

[Future Null Infinity]

37 minutes ago, Jcoz said:

Lying to Jon is objectively worse than being truthful given that Jon is trying to make decisions that involve thousands of lives, including his own

my perspective is different : whatever her reasons for lying are (which are in the realm of the unknown), the worst thing shown for me is Jon taking a decision endangering all parties, it was clear in the scene that Jon and Davos know that the chances are too low and yet he decided to attack, she wanted to reason with him that they need more men, but he didn't want to listen, she started the war and she's taking her responsability about it, and for LF, Jon will know about it sooner ot later, so as you see, the subject of lying is totally irrelevant in what I want to discuss, you want to discuss things that exist in the show I can discuss them with you, you want to discuss things that we don't know what are the real reasons behind them  and make them like they are already in the story (Sansa lying because she wants power, Sansa lying because she wants LF, Sansa lying because she's evil.......) I'm not your guy

[Stubby]

[MOD]

Folks, two things please:

1. Be more respectful to each other in your posts, please.

2. Do not post spoilers in this thread.

Thanks.

[/MOD]

[Ice Spider]

Sansa grossly overestimated the support she good garner from the northern houses. She anticipated that all the houses in the North would rally behind a Stark and the Vale forces would not be needed at all. For all we knew, it was her plan to first concentrate at the task at hand (re-taking Winterfell), and then, from a position of power, focusing her attention on LF. I am not saying she would attack the Vale, but rather bring certain facts to light about LF and then let the Vale deal with him.

As for lying to Jon, I think she wanted to handle LF in her own way, and when she wanted too. She also (wisely) hedged her bet. When rallying the North did not go anywhere near as planned, she still had an ace up her sleeve.

Now, as to why she didn't then come forward and tell Jon of her plans and that the Vale would be sending help, I honestly can't come up with any good reason. It's stupid really. If Jon were to know this, surely he would wait until their arrival until he mounted an attack, The only thing that comes to mind here is maybe Sansa had a fear of their being Bolton spies in their ranks?

[Frejac]

3 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

my perspective is different : whatever her reasons for lying are (which are in the realm of the unknown), the worst thing shown for me is Jon taking a decision endangering all parties, it was clear in the scene that Jon and Davos know that the chances are too low and yet he decided to attack, she wanted to reason with him that they need more men, but he didn't want to listen, she started the war and she's taking her responsability about it, and for LF, Jon will know about it sooner ot later, so as you see, the subject of lying is totally irrelevant in what I want to discuss, you want to discuss things that exist in the show I can discuss them with you, you want to discuss things that we don't know what are the real reasons behind them  and make them like they are already in the story (Sansa lying because she wants power, Sansa lying because she wants LF, Sansa lying because she's evil.......) I'm not your guy

A couple things here.

First, how, exactly, is Jon's decision the worst thing?  With the information he has, what, exactly, do you expect him to do?

When they left the Wall, they knew that they needed all of the North to equal the Boltons and their allies.  They're only getting pieces of the North, and, based on their recent experiences, they can't reasonably expect that to change.  Assuming they took the time to talk to every single remaining house, large and small, I doubt they could expect more than a couple hundred additional men.  And what would be the cost required to get those men?

They would lose a good amount of time, and time is critical.  The longer they wait, the better chance a severe storm will hurt them the same way it did Stannis.  The longer they wait, the more resources they lose; supplying and feeding several thousand people is neither cheap nor easy in the best of times, let alone at the onset of a Westerosi winter in the North.  The longer they wait, the more men they risk losing to the natural enemy of any military campaign, attrition due to disease and hunger.

These are not small matters to consider.  So Jon, knowing what he does, only really has three options.

1. Do what Sansa wants and try to gather more men.  Not a good option because of the risk factors listed above and the limited gain those men would provide.  A couple hundred more men, even a thousand more men, would not significantly shift the scales in their favor when they attack Winterfell.

2. Retreat to the Wall.  Not a good option because Castle Black is indefensible from the south, and they would face the same supply issues as outlined above.

3. Attack with a slim chance of victory and hope that Ramsay makes a mistake or their knowledge of Winterfell provides an advantage.  Not a good option because of the disparity in the size of the Bolton and Stark forces.

All three options will most likely see them dead.  None of them seem like they have that much of a different chance of succeeding.

I just don't see how, given his knowledge of the situation, Jon's decision is so bad.  He sees it as the best bad choice he can make.

Which brings me to my second point.  The knowledge Jon has is completely relevant to the discussion you began, and, as a result, the subject of Sansa lying to him is vitally important.

If he had known the Vale's help was an option, he would have taken it.  You may disagree, but I don't even see it as a question.

If he had known that Sansa was writing to Littlefinger to ask for his help, he would have waited for a response and planned his attack differently.  There is a massive difference between spending the precious resource of time travelling across the North hoping to get a few hundred more men, and spending it waiting on the good chance that you can coordinate your attack with the aid of several thousand.

Sansa's lie matters.  It matter to this discussion because it affects everything that has happened and everything that will happen.

[Maid So Fair]

6 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

You are thinking too hard about the consequences, it's simple fact that the starks will not die and will win this war. Simple fact, if she wanted power then why she didn't side LF in the first place? with the knights of the Vale she can crush boltons, karstarks, umbers, wildlings, Jon, Rickon and Davos and take the whole north for her but she didn't, it make me mad when people push the argument why she did lie to Jon, but Jon is not a god for me, I can't wrap my head about morality in a show full of sex and incest, it was only an opinion why sansa did the right thing about sending the letter to Baelish, I looked to whole story and the options, it's not fanboyism

I wouldn't say that. If say that from an in story perspective Sandra is not thinking about the consequences enough. Unlike me, she has no idea that she's a protagonist in a story with thick plot armour. Of course the Starks will win this war, even if 

Spoiler

Rickon is rumoured to become a giant pincushion.

For me, that will be a hollow victory because it will be facilitated by LF, one of the vilest villains in th series, ex machina. 

I dont think she's lying because she's an evil bitch grasping for power. But I find it frustrating nevertheless because she has no good reason to mistrust Jon (unlike LF). It's like she's been under LF's influence way too long and thinks this is all a game, but it's not. They could all die. Jon is not a god but hes her brother who promised to protect her and has so far done pretty much all that she asked. He deserves her trust, honesty and loyalty for that. By not telling him she's taken the decision (that could result in his death and the death of all their men) out of his hands and that's very unfair. One word from LF and she regressed to her S1 character. She should know better.

[TWR]

If Sansa's reward to LF for his help is anything other than betrayal & death it will rank right along side Arya's wrap up in Braavos as the shittiest written storyline of the season

[Maid So Fair]

8 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

[Future Null Infinity]

1 hour ago, TWR said:

If Sansa's reward to LF for his help is anything other than betrayal & death it will rank right along side Arya's wrap up in Braavos as the shittiest written storyline of the season

it's yet to be seen, I think there are two options here :

• He will help as atonement
• He will help for a reward

[Future Null Infinity]

2 hours ago, Frejac said:

First, how, exactly, is Jon's decision the worst thing?  With the information he has, what, exactly, do you expect him to do?

I explained everything in the first post in this thread (please read it), initialy I didn't want to write about it because I found it too controversial, but yes, attacking 10000+ soldiers aliance with a 2000's ragtag army is a suicide mission, please re-watch Stannis' camp scene, Jon and Davos know that they are severely outnumbered

as you wrote, Jon got some options and he choose one, I can understand the option picked by Jon but it's a dangerous gamble, Sansa took the safer one, calling LF : the man who she didn't want see him again to help them (and I'm not discussing what will happen next because I really don't know what will happen next) 

 

 

[Maid So Fair]

3 hours ago, TWR said:

If Sansa's reward to LF for his help is anything other than betrayal & death it will rank right along side Arya's wrap up in Braavos as the shittiest written storyline of the season

Why wait? It's been a ahitty storyline from the moment Sansa agreed to marry Ramsay for revenge.

1 hour ago, Future Null Infinity said:

it's yet to be seen, I think there are two options here :

• He will help as atonement
• He will help for a reward

Both are offensive. The only reason they're in this situation is because of his scheming. LF needs to die.

20 minutes ago, Future Null Infinity said:

I explained everything in the first post in this thread (please read it), initialy I didn't want to write about it because I found it too controversial, but yes, attacking 10000+ soldiers aliance with a 2000's ragtag army is a suicide mission, please re-watch Stannis' camp scene, Jon and Davos know that they are severely outnumbered

as you wrote, Jon got some options and he choose one, I can understand the option picked by Jon but it's a dangerous gamble, Sansa took the safer one, calling LF : the man who she didn't want see him again to help them (and I'm not discussing what will happen next because I really don't know what will happen next) 

 

 

Irs more like 2.5k v 5k, not that helps much.

Dissing Jon for taking a dangerous gamble when he's not aware of the safe option is disingenuous. He can't take the safe option when he doesn't know there is one. Sansa going once again behind his back is a reflection on her not him.

[Future Null Infinity]

3 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

Irs more like 2.5k v 5k, not that helps much.

You are forgetting the karstarks and umbers 

4 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

Dissing Jon for taking a dangerous gamble when he's not aware of the safe option is disingenuous. He can't take the safe option when he doesn't know there is one. Sansa going once again behind his back is a reflection on her not him.

I'm not dissing anyone, I'm basing my thoughts on the show, she wasn't thinking about LF's army from the start, in the scene of Stannis' camp, you can see clearly that she remembered LF by seeing the ravens, and that's the main difference between my opinion and the other people's opinions, I don't think that Sansa was thinking or planning to use LF and the Vale until the scene of the ravens, people are saying she was planning this from mole's town meeting and I'm saying not, she lied or hide the letter from Jon is not my point of interest, I'm saying that she did the rigtht thing to call LF 

[Future Null Infinity]

4 hours ago, Frejac said:

Sansa's lie matters.  It matter to this discussion because it affects everything that has happened and everything that will happen.

it doesn't matter in any way, her remembering LF by seeing the ravens is not driven by a lie, sending a letter to LF for help is not driven by a lie, seeking help of blackfish is not driven by a lie, you are writing things without giving any credible reference from the show, you are writing pages of thoughts that did not happened in the show and you are presenting them to me like a reality, "it affects everything" ok then, give a scene from the show that support this statement, you can't win an argument by advancing imaginary events

 

[A Ghost of Someone]

9 hours ago, Ice Spider said:

Sansa grossly overestimated the support she good garner from the northern houses. She anticipated that all the houses in the North would rally behind a Stark and the Vale forces would not be needed at all. For all we knew, it was her plan to first concentrate at the task at hand (re-taking Winterfell), and then, from a position of power, focusing her attention on LF. I am not saying she would attack the Vale, but rather bring certain facts to light about LF and then let the Vale deal with him.

As for lying to Jon, I think she wanted to handle LF in her own way, and when she wanted too. She also (wisely) hedged her bet. When rallying the North did not go anywhere near as planned, she still had an ace up her sleeve.

Now, as to why she didn't then come forward and tell Jon of her plans and that the Vale would be sending help, I honestly can't come up with any good reason. It's stupid really. If Jon were to know this, surely he would wait until their arrival until he mounted an attack, The only thing that comes to mind here is maybe Sansa had a fear of their being Bolton spies in their ranks?

Ironic that Sansa marrying a Bolton has pretty much left her with no choice but to ask/beg help from the man who did that to her, LF. When Lord Glover got back in her face and told her the Starks were dead, that was pretty much saying she is no longer a Stark, kinda like Lyanna Mormont. Sansa is not loved in the North. Not anymore. 

[Future Null Infinity]

7 hours ago, Maid So Fair said:

For me, that will be a hollow victory because it will be facilitated by LF, one of the vilest villains in th series, ex machina

Sorry, I didn't see this comment

The plot demands LF in the north 

7 hours ago, Maid So Fair said:

I dont think she's lying because she's an evil bitch grasping for power. But I find it frustrating nevertheless because she has no good reason to mistrust Jon (unlike LF). It's like she's been under LF's influence way too long and thinks this is all a game, but it's not. They could all die. Jon is not a god but hes her brother who promised to protect her and has so far done pretty much all that she asked. He deserves her trust, honesty and loyalty for that. By not telling him she's taken the decision (that could result in his death and the death of all their men) out of his hands and that's very unfair. One word from LF and she regressed to her S1 character. She should know better.

I don't think it's a regression, they are putting some Jon-Sansa-LF tension in the show, nothing more, but sometimes I have doubts maybe they are going with the original idea of GRRM about sansa (the traitor stark), as I know GRRM, he is very bad in hiding his favoritism in the story to  some main characters, I think he's opening the road to Jon to become the lord of winterfell by eliminating all possible contenders, he crippled Bran and send him to the north, send arya to braavos, and now killing rickon and possibly making sansa a traitor, I'll give it 25% will happen 

[Charlie Hustle]

On 6/8/2016 at 1:09 PM, Future Null Infinity said:

for anyone, possible spoiler ahead :

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

This is the only way to save his head after the war. This info is too important and with no sign of  Howland Reed, he is the only one who knows. Now how far this information goes is up to Snow. Because his claim to the throne is moot if there is no proof, beside LF words.

[yakisikli123]

10 hours ago, Frejac said:

A couple things here.

First, how, exactly, is Jon's decision the worst thing?  With the information he has, what, exactly, do you expect him to do?

You think the northeners dont want helping them because he is a Snow she is a Bolton or because of wildlings. No

They want an alliance with strong ones and the help of Vale army would change their minds. You cannot explain lying Sansa to Jon.

And also when we assume it wouldnt change anything, even so lying to Jon is false.

[Maid So Fair]

8 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

You are forgetting the karstarks and umbers 

I'm not dissing anyone, I'm basing my thoughts on the show, she wasn't thinking about LF's army from the start, in the scene of Stannis' camp, you can see clearly that she remembered LF by seeing the ravens, and that's the main difference between my opinion and the other people's opinions, I don't think that Sansa was thinking or planning to use LF and the Vale until the scene of the ravens, people are saying she was planning this from mole's town meeting and I'm saying not, she lied or hide the letter from Jon is not my point of interest, I'm saying that she did the rigtht thing to call LF 

 I took the 5k as Boltons and their allies. Even if not the case, I very much doubt Umbers and Karstarks have so many men each. They're severely outnumbered in any case so this is not especially important imho.

How the hell has 'how do we get a bigger army'  not been the no 1 thing on her mind all this time? Has she hit her head when she  jumped off the walls of WF? If this idea never crossed her mind until now she's w complete moron.

Calling LF at this point makes sense - she has nothing to lose. But viewed in context it's way too little too late.

4 hours ago, Future Null Infinity said:

Sorry, I didn't see this comment

The plot demands LF in the north 

I don't think it's a regression, they are putting some Jon-Sansa-LF tension in the show, nothing more, but sometimes I have doubts maybe they are going with the original idea of GRRM about sansa (the traitor stark), as I know GRRM, he is very bad in hiding his favoritism in the story to  some main characters, I think he's opening the road to Jon to become the lord of winterfell by eliminating all possible contenders, he crippled Bran and send him to the north, send arya to braavos, and now killing rickon and possibly making sansa a traitor, I'll give it 25% will happen 

They are but WHY? In any universe governed by logic there is absolutely no tension   these characters. You have two siblings that have both gone hrough hell since the last time they saw each other and are the only family the other has left. On the other hand you have a sleazy asshole that sold Sandra to her rapist. It's not exactly  difficult choice. 

I very much hope that Sandra doesn't betray Jon.

[princess_snow]

3 hours ago, Maid So Fair said:

 I took the 5k as Boltons and their allies. Even if not the case, I very much doubt Umbers and Karstarks have so many men each. They're severely outnumbered in any case so this is not especially important imho.

How the hell has 'how do we get a bigger army'  not been the no 1 thing on her mind all this time? Has she hit her head when she  jumped off the walls of WF? If this idea never crossed her mind until now she's w complete moron.

Calling LF at this point makes sense - she has nothing to lose. But viewed in context it's way too little too late.

They are but WHY? In any universe governed by logic there is absolutely no tension   these characters. You have two siblings that have both gone hrough hell since the last time they saw each other and are the only family the other has left. On the other hand you have a sleazy asshole that sold Sandra to her rapist. It's not exactly  difficult choice. 

I very much hope that Sandra doesn't betray Jon.

That would be just bloody awful. I really hope LF dies this ep but I feel hell be kept around longer unfortunately. 

[AryaSansa]

What was Little Finger's motive for marrying Sansa to Ramsey?  Did he expect Sansa to get raped and beaten?

[Future Null Infinity]

1 hour ago, AryaSansa said:

What was Little Finger's motive for marrying Sansa to Ramsey?  Did he expect Sansa to get raped and beaten?

Both writers and LittleFinger in mole's town scene said that he didn't know about the "psychopath" nature of Ramsay, so no, he didn't expect Sansa et get raped and beaten
The motive of LF for marrying Sansa to Ramsey is to become the warden of the north by framing the boltons against the crown, Boltons are considered ally of the crown and Sansa is considered an enemy, she is number 1 suspect in Joffrey murder, he convinced Sansa to marry Ramsay to take back Winterfell and convinced the boltons to accept Sansa as a wife for Ramsay to consolidate their control on the north

And then he flew back to KL with his beloved jetpack to inform Cersei that the boltons are scheming to betray the crown and that Cersei needs to punish them, in this video you can see his discussion with Cersei and the rest of his plan :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lcx8gAM6wM