Varys knows Arya's whereabouts.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

He may not have been aware before Arya's earlier escape that it led outside.  If so, he wouldn't know where it came out.  Also, he probably expected Ser Meryn to take her in hand (he almost did), and by the time he found out she escaped, it would have been too late.

As for Yoren, I do believe that Varys told him to be on the lookout for her.  Her father's execution would be a logical place to be, and if I recall correctly, she climbed up on a statue to get a better look.  Yoren could have seen her then, and easily gotten in her way.

Of course he would know where it led out. He's been using the secret passages for what... 30 years? And Arya was following him in that tunnel.

10 hours ago, Light a wight tonight said:

While I have a feeling, not based on anything textual, that Arya was destined to be trained by the Faceless Men, it don't think Varys was part of the mechanism. Being captured by Gregor's men, escaping from Harrenhall, being captured by Sandor and him getting nearly killed in the inn, etc, etc, none of this could have been effected or even monitored by Varys.

I'm letting go of the FM and Varys being in some plot together to be fair,  but if he was I'd think the whole captured by whoever thing would not have been his doing,  just H'gar being there, and her getting the coin.

9 hours ago, Yollo/Hugor Hill/Tyrion said:

I frankly don't think that Varys has informants literally everywhere you can think the man is not a god he only has little birds where he chooses to put them and they don't always get back to him in good time. For instance when Stannis and Balon Greyjoy both stopped any ships or ravens from leaving their respective strongholds Varys was unable to report on what they were up to and thus had no idea what they were going to do. he definitely has a massive number of informants they just are'nt literally

 

Varys was a little preoccupied that day seeing as they queen had guards sacking her own keep and killing northmen left and right. he was right there in the throne room when it happened i doubt he was allowed to leave and frankly Arya was a child it wasn't that hard for him to loose track of her in all that chaos and after that what's one child among thousands in Flea Bottom? If it wasn't Arya she probably would've died there and once the war started it becomes nearly impossible to track any one person's movements. Varys' little birds work best when things are quiet, not during a massacre and definitely not when the king is starting a war for no reason.

Balon Greyjoy and Stannis aren't in the Red Keep. His system only works very well within the Red Keep, because only only there has access to secret passages. 

I don't think he had spies on everybody all the time,  I do think he had spies on Ned all the time. He was very interested in Ned. His spies might not report on everything,  but they would report on conversations,  even seemingly unimportant ones. 

He had spies on Aron Santagar who reported about Rodrik Cassel asking about a dagger. Aron Santagar doesn't seem like the most crucial person to me. 

 

Yes it was a messy day when Ned was betrayed. Perhaps Varys wasn't allowed to leave the throne room,  but I'm quite sure he anticipated littlefinger's betrayal in advance,  and could and would have taken precautions in advance if he wanted to. 

The conversation where Ned asks Littlefinger for the Gold Cloaks happens in Ned's solar, so at that point Varys already knew Ned's plan,  and I'm sure he expected LF to betray Ned.

He might not have expected the queen would have Ned's entire household killed,  but he would certainly expect her to make sure the Stark girls weren't going anywhere. If he wanted to help Cersei with that,  he would've made sure that Arya wasn't leaving through the passage Cersei doesn't know about, or have her followed once she got out. 

 

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I like your reasoning, but Varys's resources are not limitless. I wonder if he kept tabs on Arya. He might not have been paying that close attention to the little girl. 

She is not just anybody,  she's the daughter of the King's Hand,  and a valuable hostage. That doesn't mean he would have her followed when she's chasing cats,  but it does mean that she's valuable enough to keep an eye on when the King's Hand is going to be betrayed. 

A reason why Varys might prefer her outside King's Landing is that she has knowledge of his plotting with Illyrio,  even if she doesn't understand it. 

1 hour ago, Dorian Martell said:

Not a chance.
As a child of winterfell, Arya would be beyond valuable to the crown. If Varys was aware of her he would have tried to capture her. 

Varys isn't exactly working for the crown is he? Varys has his own agenda,  and if he let Arya slip away he probably wanted Cersei to feel less in control. 

[the snow dragon]

Arya at that point is just a child and everybody thinks she  is a idiot girl.i dont think varys would have employed his resources on her when there were other more important things on hand.

[Dorian Martell]

7 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Varys isn't exactly working for the crown is he? Varys has his own agenda,  and if he let Arya slip away he probably wanted Cersei to feel less in control. 

Who said anything about Cersei? Varys wanted to start a war between the lannisters and the starks. Having posession of a stark girl would help him with those plans. So no, he has no idea where she is 

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

5 hours ago, the snow dragon said:

Arya at that point is just a child and everybody thinks she  is a idiot girl.i dont think varys would have employed his resources on her when there were other more important things on hand.

She's just a child and happens to be a very valuable hostage,  and who knows a way out of the castle,  which Varys most likely knew, since he was very worried about Ned finding the out about Gendry, and reading the book of lineages,  so he surely had his little birds spying on Ned at all times. He says in his conservation with Illyrio that need worries him more than all the others combined. 

15 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Who said anything about Cersei? Varys wanted to start a war between the lannisters and the starks. Having posession of a stark girl would help him with those plans. So no, he has no idea where she is 

Actually Varys had been trying to postpone the war at this point in the books. He didn't want the war to start,  at least not at this point,  because he and Illyrio weren't ready to attack yet. Which is the exact reason why he tells Illyrio that he's worried about Ned's presence and his Bastard research. 

[Dorian Martell]

9 minutes ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Actually Varys had been trying to postpone the war at this point in the books. He didn't want the war to start,  at least not at this point,  because he and Illyrio weren't ready to attack yet. Which is the exact reason why he tells Illyrio that he's worried about Ned's presence and his Bastard research. 

All the more reason to keep a stark child hostage. Yet he did not 

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

20 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

All the more reason to keep a stark child hostage. Yet he did not 

That depends on his plan of action after things got awry. He doesn't have the power to seize Arya himself and keep her somewhere,  so he'd depend on either telling Cersei or littlefinger... He might have preferred the option of telling Yoren to keep an eye out for her,  so she'd go back to WF, thereby weakening the position of the lannisters. 

It's not like Varys always tells everyone everything he knows... He only tells the things that suit him, when they suit him,  and to who he believes will do something that suits him. 

[Dorian Martell]

2 minutes ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

That depends on his plan of action after things got awry. He doesn't have the power to seize Arya himself and keep her somewhere,  so he'd depend on either telling Cersei or littlefinger... He might have preferred the option of telling Yoren to keep an eye out for her,  so she'd go back to WF, thereby weakening the position of the lannisters. 

It's not like Varys always tells everyone everything he knows... He only tells the things that suit him, when they suit him,  and to who he believes will do something that suits him. 

Regardless of any hypothetical hows and whys, Varys did nothing so it is safe to assume he has no idea where she is. 

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

7 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

Regardless of any hypothetical hows and whys, Varys did nothing so it is safe to assume he has no idea where she is. 

Actually we don't know if Varys did something or not,  but it is at least very likely that he knew how she got out of the castle,  and we know for a certainty that he arranged for Gendry to go with Yoren. He might well have told Yoren right there and then that Stark's youngest daughter had escaped the castle. We can't be sure,  but there's reason enough to consider the possibility seriously. 

I'm not saying it must be fact,  just that it's just as likely,  and perhaps even more likely than that he didn't know. 

[Dorian Martell]

3 minutes ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Actually we don't know if Varys did something or not,  but it is at least very likely that he knew how she got out of the castle,  and we know for a certainty that he arranged for Gendry to go with Yoren. He might well have told Yoren right there and then that Stark's youngest daughter had escaped the castle. We can't be sure,  but there's reason enough to consider the possibility seriously. 

I'm not saying it must be fact,  just that it's just as likely,  and perhaps even more likely than that he didn't know. 

But we do know Varys didn't do anyanything because we didn't see him do anything, He never mentions Arya and she spends two books in the riverlands, before heading to Bravos. Out of sight, out of mind 

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

4 minutes ago, Dorian Martell said:

But we do know Varys didn't do anyanything because we didn't see him do anything, He never mentions Arya and she spends two books in the riverlands, before heading to Bravos. Out of sight, out of mind 

I suppose we must agree to disagree.  In my opinion Varys is one of those people you hardly see doing anything,  only to find out later he did something you didn't even think of. 

If he lost track of her after she left Kl with Yoren, there's really no reason why he should ever mention her. Outside the Red Keep his network is limited. Who would be mention her to? He tells Tyrion he made arrangements for Gendry to be taken out of the city, but it wouldn't make sense for him to also tell Tyrion that Yoren had Arya too. That would just cost him his head. So him not mentioning Arya isn't exactly proof that he didn't do anything. 

[black_hart]

"A reason why Varys might prefer her outside King's Landing is that she has knowledge of his plotting with Illyrio,  even if she doesn't understand it."

This is a reason to see her dead not to escort her out of King's Landing, if anything this proves he did not know. One of the big what if's for me always was: What would have happened if Ned had listened better to Arya in that crucial moment? (Knowledge of secret tunnels, uncovering a hidden faction, leverage over Varys, better operational security, unmasking Littlefinger ... possibilities, possibilities.)

The whole thread does not mention Yoren possibly being a Varys crony or ally for whatever reason. They interact regularly, he might be one of the few who has contact with him in his disguise as prison guard and as Master of Spies (while taking prisoners and doing the paperwork for it). Yoren is the choice of Varys to remove Gendry from King's Landing. Also, Varys talks about the capture of Tyrion even before Yoren tells it to Ned while claiming to be the first to do so.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

21 minutes ago, black_hart said:

"A reason why Varys might prefer her outside King's Landing is that she has knowledge of his plotting with Illyrio,  even if she doesn't understand it."

This is a reason to see her dead not to escort her out of King's Landing, if anything this proves he did not know. One of the big what if's for me always was: What would have happened if Ned had listened better to Arya in that crucial moment? (Knowledge of secret tunnels, uncovering a hidden faction, leverage over Varys, better operational security, unmasking Littlefinger ... possibilities, possibilities.)

The whole thread does not mention Yoren possibly being a Varys crony or ally for whatever reason. They interact regularly, he might be one of the few who has contact with him in his disguise as prison guard and as Master of Spies (while taking prisoners and doing the paperwork for it). Yoren is the choice of Varys to remove Gendry from King's Landing. Also, Varys talks about the capture of Tyrion even before Yoren tells it to Ned while claiming to be the first to do so.

Her story was pretty confused, and I doubt anyone could make sense of it,  other than Varys. Ned might have, indeed, if he had listened better (especially when he'd find out later about Catelyn holding Tyrion and Daenarys's pregnancy), but he had knowledge of things the other Starks have no idea about. So even if she arrived safely in Winterfell,  would she be a threat to Varys? 

The thing about Varys and Littlefinger is that it's so hard to guess their exact intentions from single actions (that usually are so concealed, that you don't even truly see the actions). I feel they put lots and lots of lines out in all directions,  and then wait and see which ones have effect. 

I hardly know why Varys does anything to be fair... 

I wonder why no one ever found the tunnel from the outside btw. Is Arya the only kid that goes exploring?

Interesting thought about Yoren being a Varys creature... I think he isn't,  but that's just a feeling. I wondered about Varys knowing so soon about Tyrion's capture as well,  just like I always wonder about what would have happened if Ned had given Arya's story more thought. I always feel that he should remember it in the black cells,  when it's too late to change anything...

[Yollo/Hugor Hill/Tyrion]

8 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Actually we don't know if Varys did something or not,  but it is at least very likely that he knew how she got out of the castle,  and we know for a certainty that he arranged for Gendry to go with Yoren. He might well have told Yoren right there and then that Stark's youngest daughter had escaped the castle. We can't be sure,  but there's reason enough to consider the possibility seriously. 

I'm not saying it must be fact,  just that it's just as likely,  and perhaps even more likely than that he didn't know. 

Ok but in the OP you said that he knew where she was right now in Braavos it is possible he was able to guess how she got out of the Red Keep but highly unlikely he was able to keep track of her during all the chaos so once she got out there was no way to track her and there was definitely no way to track her after Amory Lorch killed Yoren 

[black_hart]

9 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Her story was pretty confused, and I doubt anyone could make sense of it,  other than Varys. Ned might have, indeed, if he had listened better (especially when he'd find out later about Catelyn holding Tyrion and Daenarys's pregnancy), but he had knowledge of things the other Starks have no idea about. So even if she arrived safely in Winterfell,  would she be a threat to Varys? 

The thing about Varys and Littlefinger is that it's so hard to guess their exact intentions from single actions (that usually are so concealed, that you don't even truly see the actions). I feel they put lots and lots of lines out in all directions,  and then wait and see which ones have effect. 

I hardly know why Varys does anything to be fair... 

I wonder why no one ever found the tunnel from the outside btw. Is Arya the only kid that goes exploring?

Interesting thought about Yoren being a Varys creature... I think he isn't,  but that's just a feeling. I wondered about Varys knowing so soon about Tyrion's capture as well,  just like I always wonder about what would have happened if Ned had given Arya's story more thought. I always feel that he should remember it in the black cells,  when it's too late to change anything...

Still this is one of the frustrating moments for me, one of the few chances Ned had to turn things around in King's Landing. Her knowledge is a danger to Varys in itself. Just the factional knowledge that could be learned ... if you realise that Varys / Mopatis / "Targaryen" plotters plan for war later, while LF hastens it now (him being responsible for Tyrion's arrest is spelled out). It isn't only what Northerners far away from KL would do with it, but just imagine her in Lannister hands, identified and questioned. Even from the Northern perspective, even after Ned is dead pre-knowledge of 3rd party invasion plans could lead to a calmer / defensive campaign and less overstretch in search of a decisive victory.

Listen to your daughters!

Yoren, well I wrote "or ally", I don't like theories that identify a handful of players and proceed to see everyone else as mindless creature and we hardly know enough of Yoren to be sure of anything. He could well just act out of "the Night's Watch takes no part" ethos and Varys' good will helps him doing his job.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

5 hours ago, Yollo/Hugor Hill/Tyrion said:

Ok but in the OP you said that he knew where she was right now in Braavos it is possible he was able to guess how she got out of the Red Keep but highly unlikely he was able to keep track of her during all the chaos so once she got out there was no way to track her and there was definitely no way to track her after Amory Lorch killed Yoren 

Actually I didn't. I wrote that Varys knew how she got out of the Red Keep as something extremely likely,  the rest I considered possibilities. 

I wanted to see people's opinions on what this meant, and I've adjusted my opinion about the possibility of a Varys FM conspiracy based on the reactions,  as I've said in this thread. 

I think it's normal to adjust your opinion of people point out flaws in your argument?

1 hour ago, black_hart said:

Still this is one of the frustrating moments for me, one of the few chances Ned had to turn things around in King's Landing. Her knowledge is a danger to Varys in itself. Just the factional knowledge that could be learned ... if you realise that Varys / Mopatis / "Targaryen" plotters plan for war later, while LF hastens it now (him being responsible for Tyrion's arrest is spelled out). It isn't only what Northerners far away from KL would do with it, but just imagine her in Lannister hands, identified and questioned. Even from the Northern perspective, even after Ned is dead pre-knowledge of 3rd party invasion plans could lead to a calmer / defensive campaign and less overstretch in search of a decisive victory.

Listen to your daughters!

Yoren, well I wrote "or ally", I don't like theories that identify a handful of players and proceed to see everyone else as mindless creature and we hardly know enough of Yoren to be sure of anything. He could well just act out of "the Night's Watch takes no part" ethos and Varys' good will helps him doing his job.

Yeah it's extremely frustrating,  and it pisses me off that Ned never realised that Arya was trying to tell him something important! I feel the same way about Sansa never reflecting on the impact of her telling Cersei about leaving KL. 

I think it's an interesting thought about Yoren. There are a few things about Yoren that I find odd. Apparently he's been going back and forth over the kingsroad between KL and the Wall for 30 years. Apparently black brothers are always welcome at Winterfell,  and yet Ned doesn't seem tree know him,  and his children have never seen a ragged and dirty black brother... Did he never stop at Winterfell in all those years? 

To be honest,  I think that's just something Grrm didn't really think through,  but still it strikes me as odd.

[rhoynestar]

2 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Actually I didn't. I wrote that Varys knew how she got out of the Red Keep as something extremely likely,  the rest I considered possibilities. 

I wanted to see people's opinions on what this meant, and I've adjusted my opinion about the possibility of a Varys FM conspiracy based on the reactions,  as I've said in this thread. 

I wouldn't drop the Varys-FM theory quite yet, I'd just modify it a bit to make Varys less omniscient. He would have likely had a hand in, or at least known, that Syrio and Jaqen (Syrio/Jaqen) were around in the Red Keep. First sword of Braavos suddenly training the Hand's daughter? Random guy in the black cells, later shipped off with the Night's Watch as Jaqen? Master of Whisperers Varys would have definitely known, if not helping. We don't see him raising issues/actively investigating at all, which I find telling.

Did he know of Arya and guide her to Yoren, where Jaqen and Gendry were waiting? I don't quite think he had so much of a hand with Arya, who is capable of escaping the Keep on her own. If anything, perhaps his birds were on the lookout so that Arya at least survived on the streets up to getting to Ned's execution (hard to survive on the streets several days, even if she was smart), but as many others have said she was likely not his first priority. Also it's telling that in the show that makes the point that Ned is the one who sees her at Baelor's statue and alerts Yoren, rather than Varys or any other.

More likely Varys knew the Watch was leaving, and helped Jaqen and Gendry get out of the city with them. Then Arya tumbles in by chance. Jaqen ending up meeting Arya with Yoren is quite an interesting circumstance but I'd chalk it up more to fate.

It's possible Varys now knows through the FM about Arya, and maybe guesses Gendry's whereabouts. These are likely just loose ends that Varys floats out while he's busy doing other things that are more important. So I wouldn't discount Varys' involvement or possible ties with the FM -- I'd just say he's keeping them on the shelf for the future.

 

[BricksAndSparrows]

On 7/8/2016 at 7:05 PM, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Agreed, however Ned had his entire household searching for her, Varys would hardly have missed that,  and even if he had,  he had his birds spying on Ned anyway, so he would've gotten a report on Arya returning, her strange account on how she left the castle,  and the meeting with Yoren.

Okay. I'm open to the idea. So let me ask, how long do you think Varys could track Arya's movement?

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

On 10-7-2016 at 4:18 PM, rhoynestar said:

I wouldn't drop the Varys-FM theory quite yet, I'd just modify it a bit to make Varys less omniscient. He would have likely had a hand in, or at least known, that Syrio and Jaqen (Syrio/Jaqen) were around in the Red Keep. First sword of Braavos suddenly training the Hand's daughter? Random guy in the black cells, later shipped off with the Night's Watch as Jaqen? Master of Whisperers Varys would have definitely known, if not helping. We don't see him raising issues/actively investigating at all, which I find telling.

Did he know of Arya and guide her to Yoren, where Jaqen and Gendry were waiting? I don't quite think he had so much of a hand with Arya, who is capable of escaping the Keep on her own. If anything, perhaps his birds were on the lookout so that Arya at least survived on the streets up to getting to Ned's execution (hard to survive on the streets several days, even if she was smart), but as many others have said she was likely not his first priority. Also it's telling that in the show that makes the point that Ned is the one who sees her at Baelor's statue and alerts Yoren, rather than Varys or any other.

More likely Varys knew the Watch was leaving, and helped Jaqen and Gendry get out of the city with them. Then Arya tumbles in by chance. Jaqen ending up meeting Arya with Yoren is quite an interesting circumstance but I'd chalk it up more to fate.

It's possible Varys now knows through the FM about Arya, and maybe guesses Gendry's whereabouts. These are likely just loose ends that Varys floats out while he's busy doing other things that are more important. So I wouldn't discount Varys' involvement or possible ties with the FM -- I'd just say he's keeping them on the shelf for the future.

 

Varys tells Tyrion he arranged for Gendry to be taken to safety,  looking back I recently realised it was probably Ned who did it. Ned asks Varys to deliver a letter for him in the black cells,  and Varys warns him he'll read it. I'm guessing the letter includes instructions that Gendry should go with Yoren, and a hint that Arya escaped the castle, probably subtle. I assume Varys would get that hint,  and be aware of the possibility of Arya travelling with Yoren. 

After that I don't know. The FM, and Varys are both still too confusing to figure out. I don't really exclude the possibility that they work together yet,  but I can't really see how they work together either. They both do hate magic though. It's something I'm keeping in the back of my mind,  and I'll keep seeing Varys 's likely knowledge of Arya's departure from KL as an interesting find. 

23 hours ago, BricksAndSparrows said:

Okay. I'm open to the idea. So let me ask, how long do you think Varys could track Arya's movement?

Well at least till she leaves KL or when Yoren dies. After that he could only have some knowledge of be would be in league with the FM, which I see as a small possibility,  but don't take for granted. 

In that case he'd lose track of her after Jaqen left Harrenhal, and know her whereabouts again when she takes ship to Braavos I guess. But again I see this only as a small possibility. 

[rhoynestar]

40 minutes ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Varys tells Tyrion he arranged for Gendry to be taken to safety,  looking back I recently realised it was probably Ned who did it. Ned asks Varys to deliver a letter for him in the black cells,  and Varys warns him he'll read it. I'm guessing the letter includes instructions that Gendry should go with Yoren, and a hint that Arya escaped the castle, probably subtle. I assume Varys would get that hint,  and be aware of the possibility of Arya travelling with Yoren. 

Possibly. Also many have argued Varys knew about Gendry from the beginning and was looking out for him, since someone paid Tohbo Mott double the apprentice fee to take him on. I would put my money on this someone being Varys since he usually took care of Robert's bastards anyway (for example he sends Edric Storm presents from Robert). Both Ned and Varys may have had a hand in Gendry's escape. 

 

40 minutes ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

After that I don't know. The FM, and Varys are both still too confusing to figure out. I don't really exclude the possibility that they work together yet,  but I can't really see how they work together either. They both do hate magic though. It's something I'm keeping in the back of my mind,  and I'll keep seeing Varys 's likely knowledge of Arya's departure from KL as an interesting find. 

Varys has links to Essos since he grew up there, and is close to/cooperates with Ilyrio Mopatis. Littlefinger, on the other hand, is mostly based in Westeros, which makes me think Varys would be the one person in the Red Keep to have any FM links. I think Syrio being in the Red Keep, Jaqen exiting with Yoren, and Varys not making any noise about it, is strong circumstantial evidence of FM-Varys ties. 

All this is pretty much theorizing of course. Hopefully we get to see some more on this before the show ends. 

[BricksAndSparrows]

1 hour ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

Well at least till she leaves KL or when Yoren dies. After that he could only have some knowledge of be would be in league with the FM, which I see as a small possibility,  but don't take for granted. 

In that case he'd lose track of her after Jaqen left Harrenhal, and know her whereabouts again when she takes ship to Braavos I guess. But again I see this only as a small possibility. 

Of course this is possible, but I have my doubts. Arya was pretty inconspicuous wandering around KL in the time before she left with Yoren; she was just one dirty orphan, among hundreds (maybe thousands,) But that is the least of my doubts because I think there is a good chance that Vary's ability to obtain information goes beyond normal human ability... I think he is a warg. But I wont get into that now.

My main gripe is that if he knew, he didn't act on that info. Arya would be a valuable prize to have, and to allow her to wander alone through the war-torn Riverlands would just be a waste. She could have died half a hundred times. What good is it to have knowledge and do nothing. I don't think Varys would have left her unsupervised. 

Unless he is in with the FM (something I wouldn't dismiss,) Then you could disregard the previous paragraph.

Additionally, there is this question: It is easy to imagine how Vary could know: informants, magic powers, etc... But what indication is there that he did know?