Varys knows Arya's whereabouts.

[OuttaOldtown]

17 hours ago, Masha said:

Its implied that Bloodraven (and now Bran) can see thru weirwood trees anywhere they exist.

The whole FM council which Arya overhears (or serves as cupbearer to them, I don't remember but it was from her POV), where they basically go over their kill list and business they all sit on chairs made from from Weirwood trees

So, for me that means that at very least Bloodraven is spying on FM, at most, they work together. 

 

Ive noticed a correlation between Arya's description of the HoBnW and Bran's on his journey down into the Weirwood. And that the Old Gods are represented by the carvings of faces on many trees, all different & unique. The symbol on the door (partially made if weirwood) also seems like it is connected to the Old Gods. 

Mad for Varys knowing Arya's whereabouts, I see no proof that he knows..

[aryagonnakill#2]

There are multiple ways Arya could have left the castle, LF takes Ned out through a different passageway.  Varys could not have known which she used even if he knew everything else, which is doubtful.

[Lost Melnibonean]

For anyone who believes that Varys let Arya disappear: What do you belive happened to Tyrek? 

[Masha]

10 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

For anyone who believes that Varys let Arya disappear: What do you belive happened to Tyrek? 

Either Varys/LF is responsible for that, as their "yes-man" in case Tywin's children are gone or he is a Red Herring like many other things and absolutely nothing will ever come out of it, he vanished and gone.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

21 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

For anyone who believes that Varys let Arya disappear: What do you belive happened to Tyrek? 

Probably dead, or otherwise see below. 

Would be funny if Tyres had actually been living in Flea Bottom the way Arya did,  but that would be highly unlikely. 

10 minutes ago, Masha said:

Either Varys/LF is responsible for that, as their "yes-man" in case Tywin's children are gone or he is a Red Herring like many other things and absolutely nothing will ever come out of it, he vanished and gone.

 

[Hos the Hostage]

Varys spied on Ned and his family 24/7 - yes.

Varys could have realized Arya overheard him and Illyrio - yes.

Varys could have expectd Arya to use the same passage to escape the Red Keep - probably.

Varys planted spies in Yoren's party due to Gendry's presence and Ned's expected presence - yes. (Not sure if it was Jaqen)

But once Yoren was killed, Arya and friends are completely on her own for a while, before getting captured by the Lannister men. At this point Varys loses all information on Arya and Gendry. Arya and Gendry are quickly added to a band of refugees and while Varys's spies could have identified Gendry in the crowd, Arya was very unrecognisable.

Varys had spies in Harrenhal - yes.

If Jaqen was Varys's, he would not have let Arya go so easily. Even if Jaqen was Varys's man,  he too lost all info on Arya once he left Harrenhal. If Varys kept tabs on the serving girl named Weasel or Nan, he lost it when Arya and Gendry escaped.

Varys knew Arya was with the Brotherhood - possible. I doubt he knew it when she was their captive, but he certainly knew it later, since it was common knowledge in Riverlands that BwB was looking for Arya Stark who was kidnapped by Sandor Clegane.

But by the time Varys figured Arya was alive, Arya was wandering near Saltpans. Varys could have had spies in the village where Arya and Sandor stayed for a while (though it was a very unimportant place, so less likely). He could even have figured out that the 'ragged peasant boy' with the Hound at the Crossroads Inn was Arya Stark (Shitmouth or Raff says this to Jaime at Harrenhal).

However, after Arya left Sandor and took a ship at Saltpans, Varys lost all tabs on her. Someone searching for Arya could find out if some little girl was found asking passage North, but the probability of such specific investigation is low, when most people were busy looking for a girl with auburn hair accompanied by a fool. Also most people would expect the Stark girls to go to nearer places, Riverrun or Eyrie, not the Wall.

Once Arya reached Braavos, she becomes totally invisible. Only the people at HoBaW knows her whereabouts. If Varys was working with FM, he could know, but very little evidence to suggest he is. Also, someone friends with Varys would have handed Arya over much sooner than training her the way FM is doing.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, Masha said:

Either Varys/LF is responsible for that, as their "yes-man" in case Tywin's children are gone or he is a Red Herring like many other things and absolutely nothing will ever come out of it, he vanished and gone.

So Varys allowed Arya to slip away with Yoren, but he instigated a riot kidnap Tyrek, and he's been holding him captive ever since? 

[Masha]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

So Varys allowed Arya to slip away with Yoren, but he instigated a riot kidnap Tyrek, and he's been holding him captive ever since? 

Many believe this theory. As I said it's either that or a misdirection by Martin that will end in nothing 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Masha said:

Many believe this theory. As I said it's either that or a misdirection by Martin that will end in nothing 

But is that Tyrek action consistent with Varys knowingly allowing Arya to leave his power? 

[Hos the Hostage]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But is that Tyrek action consistent with Varys knowingly allowing Arya to leave his power? 

I don't think it has to be. Varys has been actively searching for Arya and Sansa, but he did not knowingly allow Arya to leave his power. I believe most of Arya's journey happened as a product of circumstances and not according anyone's masterplan. Varys may have wanted to find and keep Arya as part of collecting heirs (like in case of Tyrek), Tyrion and Littlefinger may have wanted to find her for political advantage, but once she escaped Meryn Trant, she was under no one's (pun not intended) power (not for long, that is - I already listed in a previous comment several occasions when Varys could have known about Arya, but I doubt he knew all along like OP suggested). Which, as someone pointed above, is part of the beauty about the characters Jon and Arya - these people are going to be important but the 'players' aren't paying them much attention until much later in the story.

I'm not sure about Varys has Tyrek theory, but with every hint given in text, it seems the most likely option. I am sure Tyrek will turn up eventually (wasn't there an SSM in which GRRM confirmed we'll find out what happened to him?)