Balon's plan was truly stupid without Theon

[Free Northman Reborn]

Well, a few comments in general, after perusing this thread.

Robb had to return North after Winterfell was lost and his heirs "killed". Not before. And that had resulted only from the Bolton betrayal, which in turn, according to Roose's own admission, was born from Theon's (highly contrived) capture of Winterfell which was never part of Balon's plan.

So, before that event, the up to 10,000 Ironborn with Victarrion at Moat Cailin (let's be generous to the Ironborn), and the loss of Deepwood and Torhenn Square were irritating distractions, but in no way required Robb to return North with his army. Instead, Rodrick was assigned to deal with it. As he indeed started doing by firstly kicking the Ironborn out of Torhenn Square, after which he no doubt would have done the same at Deepwood Motte if not for Theon's ninja special forces action at Winterfell.

At that point, Rodrick would have returned to Winterfell with 2000 men, with both Deepwood Motte and Torhenn Square back in Northern hands, and likely fortified with stiffer forces, ready for any new Ironborn incursions. Leaving only Victarrion with his 10,000 men at Moat Cailin, a place where an army, according to Robb, cannot live off the land for any extended period of time.

Now we get to the manpower issue. We KNOW Manderly has more heavy horse than Roose Bolton in Dance. This despite Roose having around 500 lancers in his returning force, and Ramsay having mounted lancers as a large portion of his 600 men from the Dreadfort garrison. At the very least, Manderly has a thousand plus heavy cavalry. Probably more. Extrapolate his infantry numbers from that, even before you get to him raising a new army from refugees. Similarly, House Dustin sent the minimum number possible with Robb, indicating a sizeable portion of their primary forces still being at Barrowton.

I mention these two lords specifically, because they both represent the most populous settlements in the North, and the major lordships that happen to be closest to Moat Cailin and Victarrions 10,000 Ironfleet warriors. So regarding the question of why these lords didn't go haring off to engage Victarrion at Moat Cailin on their own, why, because one can imagine their trepidation at such a large force of Ironborn being so close to home. Either of their rich settlements could have been the imminent target of Victarrion's next attack. So they would have focused entirely on fortifying their own positions first, waiting for a united Northern force to link up with them to march on Moat Cailin.

So even if White Harbor has 5000 men, and Barrowton 2000, neither of them were going to march on Victarrion unaided. But with Rodrick back at Winterfell with Bran and Rickon safely in his custody, and Torhenn Square and Deepwood Motte recaptured, the entire situation changes. Then it would have been a simple matter for Rodrick, at Robb's command, to call in the Mountain Clans, call in the White Harbor and Barrowton men, and the Dreadfort, Ryswell and other troops, and march on Victarrion with a 10,000 plus Northern army, while the Crannogmen bleed him from the Neck.

Robb would not even have been required to divert his attention from his southron war, other than issuing a few instructions via Raven. What's more, this Northern force would have had 2000+ heavy cavalry against Victarrion's zero. They could then choose whether they wanted to leave Victarrion to gradually starve and get picked off by the Crannogmen, or at some point launch a full scale assault on his position, which is not nearly as strong from the North as it is from the South.

 

[Nittanian]

11 hours ago, devilish said:

The Riverlands had been the iron islander’s domain for many centuries (Hoare dynasty), so it would be easier for the Riverland Lords to accept the Greyjoys as opposed to the Northern Lords.

The Hoares only ruled the riverlands for three generations (Harwyn Hardhand, Halleck, Harren the Black), actually. Harwyn took the riverlands after three centuries of rule by the Storm Kings. Prior to the Durrandons, the riverlands were ruled by river kings of varying power.

[GallowsKnight]

13 hours ago, devilish said:

SNIP

I do like the idea of putting the Frey's in charge of Moat Caitlin.

As an aside, how fun is it to squiggle on the maps?

I also drew a "The Vale and Iron islands join Robb" map which I can upload. Where the Riverlands and Iron Islands carve up the Westerlands.

 

[The Fallen]

Rodrick was taken by surprise, as he wouldn't have thought that any northman would attack him. After that his host scatters into the wolf's wood, reemerging to join Stannis on his march to Winterfell.

Other than Balon's shit-talking there is no evidence that those 2,000 men were green boys nor untrained. They were merely taken unawares.

Were Robert Baratheon's men untrained when they scattered after being taken unawares by Tarly?

[devilish]

12 hours ago, Nittanian said:

The Hoares only ruled the riverlands for three generations (Harwyn Hardhand, Halleck, Harren the Black), actually. Harwyn took the riverlands after three centuries of rule by the Storm Kings. Prior to the Durrandons, the riverlands were ruled by river kings of varying power.

True but they certainly have got more 'experience' in being ruled by a foreign force then the North. Also the fact that if they rebel then can easily be crushed would make it easier for them to bend the knee and stay there

[black_hart]

Balon's plan was stupid mainly because 1) no ruler over a unified Westeros would suffer his secession, 2) his only option at independence was accomodation with Robb, who unlike everyone else had no intention to rule the whole of Westeros. He was offered the perfect chance for independence and conquest by moving against the Westerlands in unison with the North. He threw this away because he hates Theon as the living reminder of his defeat in his last ill-devised independence bid.

Imagine Theon "Special Operations" Greyjoy moving against Casterly Rock and the Westerlands with the support of his house instead on Winterfell on his own. It isn't clear whether the Tyrell alliance would be even an option (later) when they see Lannister power crumbling. (Similar to what the fall of Winterfell did to Robb's alliances.)

[devilish]

30 minutes ago, black_hart said:

Balon's plan was stupid mainly because 1) no ruler over a unified Westeros would suffer his secession, 2) his only option at independence was accomodation with Robb, who unlike everyone else had no intention to rule the whole of Westeros. He was offered the perfect chance for independence and conquest by moving against the Westerlands in unison with the North. He threw this away because he hates Theon as the living reminder of his defeat in his last ill-devised independence bid.

Imagine Theon "Special Operations" Greyjoy moving against Casterly Rock and the Westerlands with the support of his house instead on Winterfell on his own. It isn't clear whether the Tyrell alliance would be even an option (later) when they see Lannister power crumbling. (Similar to what the fall of Winterfell did to Robb's alliances.)

I think Robb's plan for the iron islands was equally stupid.

a- The Westerlands is heavily fortified with CR being fort knox. How exactly did he expected the iron islanders to conquer it? These people are pretty useless on land.

b- Even if Robb would have won the war, the new king would certainly march to get the richest part of his kingdom back. The Greyjoys would never hold that land on their own.

Robb's problem was that he couldn't understand is that he was only able to keep his promises if he went for the big prize itself. Go big or go home sort of thing. There again Robb doesn't mind not keeping his promises doesn't he?

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, devilish said:

I think Robb's plan for the iron islands was equally stupid.

a- The Westerlands is heavily fortified with CR being fort knox. How exactly did he expected the iron islanders to conquer it? These people are pretty useless on land.

b- Even if Robb would have won the war, the new king would certainly march to get the richest part of his kingdom back. The Greyjoys would never hold that land on their own.

Robb's problem was that he couldn't understand is that he was only able to keep his promises if he went for the big prize itself. Go big or go home sort of thing. There again Robb doesn't mind not keeping his promises doesn't he?

Not so.

The implication of Robb's plan would have been that he ended up ruling the North and Riverlands, with Balon ruling the Iron Isles. The West would be largely neutralized after the double strike from the North and the Iron Isles. Casterly Rock need not fall, as the intention was never to permanently occupy the Westerlands and include it in the independent kingdom. It was just to neutralize it in the current war.

At that point it was entirely rational to believe the Vale would at the very least be neutral to the newly independent North, Riverlands and Iron Isles, and possibly even an ally, given the family ties with both the North and the Riverlands.

Dorne owes nothing to the current ruling dynasty, and there was no reason why they would support them in any attempt to retake the newly independent regions. That would effectively leave the Tyrells and Baratheons on their own as supporters of the Iron Throne.

So this talk of the combined might of the Iron Throne trying to reconquer the rebel regions is incorrect. It would be the Baratheon's and Tyrells trying to do so. And then only for as long as a marriage between Margaery and Tommen could be maintained. If Tommen was assassinated, the alliance would collapse, with the Tyrells having no incentive to go up against the rest of Westeros in a quest to maintain a Throne they have no stake in.

 

[black_hart]

The Lannister / Tyrell alliance did not even exist at this point afair. A Renly / Tyrell alliance would find it hard to move against the new kingdoms and an alternative Stannis Baratheon mini-kingdom without the Tyrells even more so.

 

 

[devilish]

2 hours ago, black_hart said:

mistake

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Not so.

The implication of Robb's plan would have been that he ended up ruling the North and Riverlands, with Balon ruling the Iron Isles. The West would be largely neutralized after the double strike from the North and the Iron Isles. Casterly Rock need not fall, as the intention was never to permanently occupy the Westerlands and include it in the independent kingdom. It was just to neutralize it in the current war.

At that point it was entirely rational to believe the Vale would at the very least be neutral to the newly independent North, Riverlands and Iron Isles, and possibly even an ally, given the family ties with both the North and the Riverlands.

Dorne owes nothing to the current ruling dynasty, and there was no reason why they would support them in any attempt to retake the newly independent regions. That would effectively leave the Tyrells and Baratheons on their own as supporters of the Iron Throne.

So this talk of the combined might of the Iron Throne trying to reconquer the rebel regions is incorrect. It would be the Baratheon's and Tyrells trying to do so. And then only for as long as a marriage between Margaery and Tommen could be maintained. If Tommen was assassinated, the alliance would collapse, with the Tyrells having no incentive to go up against the rest of Westeros in a quest to maintain a Throne they have no stake in.

 

Robb couldn't give the iron islands independence because he's not the King of Westeros in the first place. What Balon could do is to rebel and put a crown on his head, something he doesn't need Robb's permission to do. 

Also once the dust settles and someone ends up sitting on the iron throne (Stannis, Mace, Joffrey, Danny, Aegon,  it doesn't matter). Then he will want to reunite the 7 kingdoms. Considering that Balon's new friends do not have a big fleet, then the iron islands would be the easiest to pick.

Its evident that a unified Westeros (even without Dorne and the Vale) is too strong for the Riverlands-the iron islands-the North and a unified Westeros was only a matter of if rather then but. The North could hide behind Moat Cailin. However there's no refuge for the Riverlands and the Iron islands

[Protagoras]

Balons main flaw is that he doesn´t get the alliance with the crown first, instead asking them afterwards if they will ally with him and at this point Balon is in the thick of it and has nothing more to offer.

By proving his value as an ally he in effect makes the alliance unneccesary (raspy tone "If you are good at something, never do it for free").

If Balon had negotiated an alliance with Tywin first, as well as a signed agreement that the Ironborn could keep any northern territory they conquer and a promise of a combined peace when the war ends (so the North can´t attack back with superior numbers when the crown leaves the war) it would have been a very strong plan. 

And its not like Robbs offer is very attractive either. There is no discussion about assistance from Robb in a fleet battle (Not that the North could have helped), there is no offer from Robb to do a combined peace with the crown including the Ironborn in it, there is no discussion on which strategical objectives Robb will help the Ironborn to reach and what territories Robb is willing to support the Ironborn right to.What Robb is saying is basically "I fight your enemies, go grab some easy plunder you pirate". At best, Theons offer is a starting-point for futher discussions.

Edit: Oh, I forgot - future support from the North to help defending Ironborn territories taken in this conflict. A very important point. 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

58 minutes ago, devilish said:

Robb couldn't give the iron islands independence because he's not the King of Westeros in the first place. What Balon could do is to rebel and put a crown on his head, something he doesn't need Robb's permission to do. 

Also once the dust settles and someone ends up sitting on the iron throne (Stannis, Mace, Joffrey, Danny, Aegon,  it doesn't matter). Then he will want to reunite the 7 kingdoms. Considering that Balon's new friends do not have a big fleet, then the iron islands would be the easiest to pick.

Its evident that a unified Westeros (even without Dorne and the Vale) is too strong for the Riverlands-the iron islands-the North and a unified Westeros was only a matter of if rather then but. The North could hide behind Moat Cailin. However there's no refuge for the Riverlands and the Iron islands

What unified Westeros are you speaking of? Without Dorne, the Vale, the North, the Riverlands and the Iron Isles there is no "unified Westeros". Just a couple of kingdoms teaming up against another bunch of kingdoms, and some other kingdoms sitting aside, waiting to snap at the backs of the middle kingdoms while they're engaged in this contest.

 

[The Fallen]

The attack on Lannisport was to coincide with Robb's attack on the Golden Tooth, thus bringing Stafford's host toward Robb and away from Casterly Rock, leaving it, and Lannisport, defenseless or on their own. Tywin would be forced to come west, thus leaving King's Landing on their own with Stannis looking to attack. I can't see the Tyrells remaining loyal to the Lannisters. 

Remember, the Tyrells at this point are making their way towards the riverlands to link up Tywin; they haven't even linked up yet.

[Nittanian]

2 hours ago, The Fallen said:

The attack on Lannisport was to coincide with Robb's attack on the Golden Tooth, thus bringing Stafford's host toward Robb and away from Casterly Rock, leaving it, and Lannisport, defenseless or on their own. Tywin would be forced to come west, thus leaving King's Landing on their own with Stannis looking to attack. I can't see the Tyrells remaining loyal to the Lannisters. 

Remember, the Tyrells at this point are making their way towards the riverlands to link up Tywin; they haven't even linked up yet.

Renly was still alive when Robb and Theon left Riverrun, so Renly and Mace were slowly gathering their forces and marching east. Robb was hoping that Renly would distract Tywin while he dealt with Stafford. Renly learns about Stannis's letter while he is at Horn Hill, but it's unclear when the Starks are informed of Stannis's claim. Tyrion allows Petyr to go to Bitterbridge to negotiate an alliance after King's Landing is informed of Renly's death. Tywin marches from the Red Fork to meet Mace at Tumbler's Falls after being informed by riders from Bitterbridge of Petyr's alliance.

[GallowsKnight]

18 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The implication of Robb's plan would have been that he ended up ruling the North and Riverlands, with Balon ruling the Iron Isles. The West would be largely neutralized after the double strike from the North and the Iron Isles. Casterly Rock need not fall, as the intention was never to permanently occupy the Westerlands and include it in the independent kingdom. It was just to neutralize it in the current war.

I agree with pretty much everything you've said in the thread.

Except this. I think if Robb had the backing of the Ironborn and the Vale, the alliance's plans might have been more ambitious. I mean why leave the Westerlands to reform or be absorbed by a Tyrell-Baratheon alliance when you can carve it up amongst you? The Riverlands could occupy the mountain keeps and passes improving their border strength and the Iron Born could snatch up all the coastal castles and towns giving them wealth and land.

Theon is already ambitiously considering a scenario where the Ironborn hold Casterly Rock (whether this a pipe-dream or note, it shows he at least has ambitions).

I'll post a map I was squiggling on when I get to my other computer.