Zorral Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 They've doubled, quadrupled, etc. for so many years now there's only one, more extreme, option remaining: a shooting war, which is already being waged on African Americans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Expanding upon this, the share of white, non-hispanic voters is down 3.4%, from 68.2% in 2012 to 65.8% in 2016. The good news for Trump is that AA turnout is also down 2.7% to 13.1% of early voters in 2016. However, since AA voters ended up making up 13% of total 2012 voters, and the 2016 early vote represented 6.4 million voters, rather than just 4.8 million in 2012, it would have been almost impossible for AA voters to maintain their early voting margin of 15.8% from 2012. IE, if African Americans were exactly as excited about Clinton as they were about Obama 2012, I would expect the AA share to be down around 14.5%, give or take. So Clinton is not doing as well as that, but she is hardly seeing some sort of collapse in support from black voters. On the whole, the early vote paints a close race, but looking at those numbers, I prefer Clinton's position to Trump's. I think she will win Florida, probably by a similar margin Obama did in 2012 as in a 1% victory, or 100k votes. I also saw some notes that a large portion of the AA who voted early last year are ones who voted in '14 and '16 primary meaning they're voters and just haven't voted for one reason or another. In NC, especially, AA turnout is down due to counties having one EV polling station compared to '16 where they had 16 per county so the lines were super long. NC Republicans did a good job suppressing turnout during EV. Still, those people are voters given their history so Nate Cohn expects them to show up. I still think NC will be close but I think the AA will do better on election day there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 26 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Expanding upon this, the share of white, non-hispanic voters is down 3.4%, from 68.2% in 2012 to 65.8% in 2016. The good news for Trump is that AA turnout is also down 2.7% to 13.1% of early voters in 2016. However, since AA voters ended up making up 13% of total 2012 voters, and the 2016 early vote represented 6.4 million voters, rather than just 4.8 million in 2012, it would have been almost impossible for AA voters to maintain their early voting margin of 15.8% from 2012. IE, if African Americans were exactly as excited about Clinton as they were about Obama 2012, I would expect the AA share to be down around 14.5%, give or take. So Clinton is not doing as well as that, but she is hardly seeing some sort of collapse in support from black voters. On the whole, the early vote paints a close race, but looking at those numbers, I prefer Clinton's position to Trump's. I think she will win Florida, probably by a similar margin Obama did in 2012 as in a 1% victory, or 100k votes. Drudge is trying to paint the situation like this, but I have no idea if he's just pulling an angle out of his ass as usual, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 5 hours ago, Mexal said: This is just as scary as Trump as president. Wow, quite the anti-Establishment, swamp-draining, burn-it-all-down cabinet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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