North defeat war of five kings

[Blackfish Tully]

8 hours ago, cgrav said:

. Walder had every reason to believe that Robb might just retreat north and let the Riverlands defend itself against an emboldened Tywin.

Robb had left his mother and his possibly pregnant wife in the Riverlands so there was very little chance that he was not planning on returning there . We found out in the later books that the Iron Born were in pretty bad shape in the North so it would not have taken long for Robb to clear them out and prepare to return South . There is no chance that he planned to abandon part of his kingdom , Robb Stark was just built that way plus the fact that he had not lost a battle so clearly he would be confident of his abilities to defeat whoever stood in his way . 

[cgrav]

@Blackfish Tully Why would Walder trust Robb to come back south when he just trashed the agreement that might have obligated him to do so? By the time Robb gets back to the Twins, his original objective - retrieving Ned - is obsolete, he's lost the Karstarks, his military leverage is declining, he just threw away a very substantial marriage pact, and he's basically on a retreat path back east. Not to mention the Northern lords are unlikely to want to muster again right after they get back home. Why would anyone trust Robb to come back months later and sacrifice northern lives for Freys?

Even if we frame it as a matter of practicality rather than trust, it seems unlikely that Robb could or would venture back south in time to protect the Freys from Lannister retribution. At the soonest, a return trip would be many months away, and that's not to mention the weather that's pointed out as a continuous struggle during all of SoS.

Not to downlplay the treachery of the Red Wedding, but if you're Walder Frey, you're in dire need of allies who aren't running back to their own castles. 

[Blackfish Tully]

4 minutes ago, cgrav said:

@Blackfish Tully Why would Walder trust Robb to come back south when he just trashed the agreement that might have obligated him to do so?

he left his mother and wife in the Riverlands , he's the King of the Riverlands and he's won every battle he's had so why would he not come back to the Riverlands? There is zero chance that Robb would abandon part of his kingdom to  Joffrey and the Lannisters that's just not how he was built . 

[Blackfish Tully]

9 minutes ago, cgrav said:

 Not to mention the Northern lords are unlikely to want to muster again right after they get back home. Why would anyone trust Robb to come back months later and sacrifice northern lives for Freys?

 

The Northern Lords would not be coming back for the Freys , they would be doing it for the Starks and because they trust and believe in the Young Wolf who led them to victory in every battle . Walder did not do the Red Wedding because he did not believe Robb would come back south, anybody who knew Robb would not have doubted his sincerity to return south ,  he did it for revenge and to get in good with Tywin . 

[cgrav]

13 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

he left his mother and wife in the Riverlands , he's the King of the Riverlands and he's won every battle he's had so why would he not come back to the Riverlands?

Well he never actually left them, but he was planning to. His wife isn't pregnant, so he could easily dismiss the marriage any time he wants. 

He's also king in title only. What lands does he actually hold at this point? None. He's an itinerant King at Riverrun. He's a King with a crown and nothing else.

Look at this from the Frey perspective - the guy took 4000 of your men and then reneged on his half of the deal and now he's going back north because he doesn't even have his own castle any more. Beyond the issue of his character, it really looks like he's just done fighting, and that means the Freys are now subject to Tywin's wrath. If you're Walder Frey, you're going to make a deal with Tywin, not sacrifice your men so King Robb can sit comfortably by the fire a thousands leages away.

 

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The Northern Lords would not be coming back for the Freys , they would be doing it for the Starks and because they trust and believe in the Young Wolf who led them to victory in every battle 

Then what happened to the Karstarks? Even in the Riverlands, where there are still active hostilities, Edmure is having trouble getting the banners to rally. As soon as those northern lords get home they're going to prepare the harvest, repair their lands, and get ready for Winter. It's not just a matter of whether they want to kill some Lannisters.

At the end of the day, this is about what Walder Frey thinks, not what the most devoted northern Lords think. And Walder has every reason to believe that Robb is abandoning the war.

[Universal Sword Donor]

11 hours ago, cgrav said:

@Universal Sword DonorI certainly won't deny that pure opportunism was a major factor. And I think we're making one of the same points: Walder felt condescended to by other noble houses, the Tullies especially.

 But I do think he felt genuinely insulted by Robb's marriage, as well as left very vulnerable to the Lannisters. Tywin could have decided to slaughter the Freys for their military support of Robb, especially post-crowning. The risk of picking sides is why he got such a high price from Catelyn. Aside from the surprise marriage, Robb was coming back east diminished, both on the battlefield and in his own now-occupied castle. Walder had every reason to believe that Robb might just retreat north and let the Riverlands defend itself against an emboldened Tywin.

Oh I have no doubt that Walder was genuinely and rightfully offended by Robb's behavior. The biggest difference is the active vendetta he puts on it, which is why I was saying the condescension was the overriding factor, not chafing under the Tullies. 

We know Tywin lets people bend the knee with minimal punishment -- he says it directly to Joff -- so in all reality updating Tywin on Walder's broken alliance and pulling his troops back to where he had been before would basically put him no worse than where Bracken or others ended up. Closing his castle and bridge to Robb basically guarantees that Robb has to cross where Roose did or down at the Ruby Ford.

[Blackfish Tully]

21 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Well he never actually left them, but he was planning to. His wife isn't pregnant, so he could easily dismiss the marriage any time he wants. 
 

does that sound like something Robb Stark would do ? how do you or Walder or even Robb know if his wife is pregnant or not ? 

 

21 minutes ago, cgrav said:

He's also king in title only. What lands does he actually hold at this point? None. He's an itinerant King at Riverrun. He's a King with a crown and nothing else.

 

All the Riverlands except perhaps Harrenhall is under his control .  what lands in the Riverlands does he not hold? 

 

21 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Look at this from the Frey perspective - the guy took 4000 of your men and then reneged on his half of the deal and now he's going back north because he doesn't even have his own castle any more. Beyond the issue of his character, it really looks like he's just done fighting, and that means the Freys are now subject to Tywin's wrath. If you're Walder Frey, you're going to make a deal with Tywin, not sacrifice your men so King Robb can sit comfortably by the fire a thousands leages away.
 

what evidence does the Freys have that would possibly lead them to the conclusion that Robb is done fighting . The Freys have been with Robb in every battle where he's crushed the Lannisters so one thing they clearly know about him is that  fighting is one thing he does very well and he's clearly good at it and he's a long way from being done . 

 

21 minutes ago, cgrav said:

, Edmure is having trouble getting the banners to rally. As soon as those northern lords get home they're going to prepare the harvest, repair their lands, and get ready for Winter. It's not just a matter of whether they want to kill some Lannisters.
 

when does Edmure have trouble rallying the Riverlords ? he has no trouble rallying them to defeat Tywin at the Battle of the Fords . 

21 minutes ago, cgrav said:

At the end of the day, this is about what Walder Frey thinks, not what the most devoted northern Lords think. And Walder has every reason to believe that Robb is abandoning the war.

If he thinks that Robb is abandoning the war then he can just let him go North and then join Tywin .  Why kill 3000 men and violate guest rights if there is no worry about Robb returning south ?

[Angel Eyes]

13 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

If he thinks that Robb is abandoning the war then he can just let him go North and then join Tywin .  Why kill 3000 men and violate guest rights if there is no worry about Robb returning south ?

Because Walder's a dick?

[falcotron]

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

If he thinks that Robb is abandoning the war then he can just let him go North and then join Tywin .  Why kill 3000 men and violate guest rights if there is no worry about Robb returning south ?

Because he got a much better deal from Tywin for doing that. Of course we didn't see the negotiations, but it's hard to imagine Tywin would offer anything more than a pardon for switching sides after Robb leaves the Riverlands, and we know he offered a lot more than a pardon for killing Robb in a way that leaves his hands clean.

At this point, you've already decided to commit treason against someone you swore fealty to as a King. Sure, violating guest right is even worse than that, but you're already determined to do something that you can't morally or honorably justify, for purely pragmatic reasons, and the pragmatic reasons are even better here.

Of course you still wouldn't take that deal, but you're not Walder Frey. Imagine his internal monologue: That sounds like a good deal, but it's pretty damned dishonorable. All of my peers will spit on me for doing this. But they already spit on me. Those hoity-toity 8000-year-old houses treat me like scum, why should I act any better than scum? Maybe once I have the power, they'll have to respect me—it seems to work for Tywin. But even if not, I'm no worse off than today. And as for the Frey name, screw the Frey name. It never got me any respect, why should my sons expect any more? I've gotten them and their brats better marriages than our name alone could ever get them. And how have they repaid me? They're already squabbling over the succession before I'm even dead. Besides, they can just lay all the blame on me for the whole thing if they want.

[cpg2016]

14 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I don't recall Frey once bitching about the oaths to House Tully outside of the initial "price" convo he has with Catelyn.

“Oh, yes, I said some words, but I swore oaths to the crown too, it seems to me. Joffrey’s the king now, and that makes you and your boy and all those fools out there no better than rebels. If I had the sense the gods gave a fish, I’d help the Lannisters boil you all.”

His biggest complaint by far, and once echoed by other Freys, is the lack of respect he gets from everyone. Hell he says it right after he utters the previous, sole quote supporting not wanting to be subservient to the Tullys.

This is wrong.  First off, one of the reasons Walder doesn't get respect is because he's such a blatant opportunist.  He was also tardy in fulfillin his oaths during Robert's Rebellion for the same reasons.  He's known as a fence sitting and someone who will go where the best deal lies, and the "lack of respect" he receives is due as much to his own actions as the youthfulness of his House.

19 hours ago, cgrav said:

But if we do want to presume the inevitability of going south, then I'd say the biggest mistake was flouting his agreement with Walder. Obvious answer, for sure, but it was easily the most consequential decision he made while on campaign.  Walder committed a treason in offering alliance to a rebel, and then received none of the benefit. Robb was insanely short sighted in not realizing that he'd left Walder to the Lions. 

Walder Frey is planning on turning on Robb well before the Red Wedding.  He wants to be on the winning side, that's all.  When Stannis loses at the Blackwater PLUS Robb loses Winterfell, everyone knows his goose is almost certainly cooked.  GRRM has basically said that the particular viciousness of the Red Wedding was a response to Walder feeling slighted by the whole Jeyne Westerling thing, but that the betrayal was happening either way, which is borne out by the text (the Freys abandon his cause before news of Robb's wedding comes in).

Long story short, Robb makes few if any mistakes of consequence.  His issue is that once Renly and Stannis are taken out and the Tyrells get into bed with the now-nearly-powerless Lannisters, he has little hope of winning the war.  The biggest mistake is in agreeing to marry a Frey in the first place, because it cuts out the possibility of marriage with a more significant player who could pledge real muscle to his campaign.

[Blackfish Tully]

47 minutes ago, falcotron said:

Because he got a much better deal from Tywin for doing that. Of course we didn't see the negotiations, but it's hard to imagine Tywin would offer anything more than a pardon for switching sides after Robb leaves the Riverlands, and we know he offered a lot more than a pardon for killing Robb in a way that leaves his hands clean.

 

how much of a better deal did he really get? it's not like he was made Lord Paramount of the Riverlands , Littlefinger got that . 

He broke guest rights, pissed off a bunch of Northern and Riverland Houses and became a pariah for all of Westeroes and all he got was that one of his sons got Riverrun , not a insignificant prize by any means , but still for killing Robb and ending the war he should have gotten more . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

34 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

This is wrong.  First off, one of the reasons Walder doesn't get respect is because he's such a blatant opportunist.  He was also tardy in fulfillin his oaths during Robert's Rebellion for the same reasons.  He's known as a fence sitting and someone who will go where the best deal lies, and the "lack of respect" he receives is due as much to his own actions as the youthfulness of his House.

The lack of respect is much due to him but we see in D&E that no one likes the Freys 100 years ago. It's definitely not from his actions as much as the house's lack of prestige and youth. Fool Frey existed for a reason, and it wasn't because he was an awful soldier.

[Blackfish Tully]

37 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

 GRRM has basically said that the particular viciousness of the Red Wedding was a response to Walder feeling slighted by the whole Jeyne Westerling thing, but that the betrayal was happening either way, which is borne out by the text (the Freys abandon his cause before news of Robb's wedding comes in).

 

where do you get this from ? i don't remember the Freys abandoning Robb until after he married Jeyne . 

[cgrav]

@Blackfish Tully

There's a big difference between having the title to the land and actually holding it. The only difference between the Tullies and Starks "holding" the Riverlands are some oaths of fealty. And by this time, Robb's hold on the North itself is questionable, and that's where his sovereignty derives. If he loses the North, he loses the basis of any claim. Robb's hold on the Riverlands is tenuous at best. 

As early as Cat V CoK, Cat fears a siege of Riverrun, which ought not be possible if Robb actually holds the Riverlands.

The loss of the Karstarks is also very significant. He's basically suffered a huge mutiny.

Some quotes regarding battle vs "hearth and harvest":

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"I cannot sit at Riverrun waiting for peace. It makes me look as if I were afraid to take the field again. When there are no battles to fight, men start to think of hearth and harvest, Father told me that. Even my northmen grow restless."

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No, she thought, not near so many, we have lost men in battle, and others to the harvest

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It had been at Edmure's insistence that Robb had given the river lords leave to depart after his crowning, each to defend his own lands. Ser Marq Piper and Lord Karyl Vance had been the first to go. Lord Jonos Bracken had followed, vowing to reclaim the burnt shell of his castle and bury his dead, and now Lord Jason Mallister had announced his intent to return to his seat at Seagard, still mercifully untouched by the fighting.

Basically Robb's war effort is flagging by early SoS. He's notched victories, but his advantage is waning quickly with the loss of the men to harvest, the Karstark mutiny, and withdrawal of Frey support. Robb is hardly holding anything. The Lannisters have backed off only because of Stannis, who they defeated soundly. 

With winter approaching, the logistics of war are becoming far more challenging to the North and Riverlands, while there is still relative peace and bounty in the South (especially thanks to the Tyrells). Robb has lost his momentum and the advantage is moving to Tywin.

The impression of the Red Wedding is pure treachery, but the subtext is politics and survival for the Freys.

[falcotron]

7 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

how much of a better deal did he really get? it's not like he was made Lord Paramount of the Riverlands , Littlefinger got that . 

As you mentioned, Riverrun is not insignificant. And the Lannisters not only grant it to him to give to a cadet branch, they even take it for him, twice. Meanwhile, when Walder sends out ravens claiming lands around the Twins, the Small Council doesn't dispute them. And he gets good marriages for at least two of his granddaughters, to Daven and Lancel.

Yeah, maybe if he were a better negotiator, he could have gotten even more. But still, he got a lot more than just a pardon.

ETA: one more thing:

7 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

He broke guest rights, pissed off a bunch of Northern and Riverland Houses and became a pariah for all of Westeroes

I explained why he didn't care that much about becoming a pariah—but also, he actually does seem to have a plan for that. When Cersei's Small Council discusses things, it sounds like they all expect that Walder has set things up so that Ryman can lay all the blame on whichever rivals he wants to eliminate. Of course Ryman later gets hanged by the BwB, so we'll never see if they were right…

[cgrav]

3 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

where do you get this from ? i don't remember the Freys abandoning Robb until after he married Jeyne . 

This would come down to a pretty tight timeline analysis, which I can't scour the text for at the moment.

But... it's quite possible that Walder was hedging before Robb's marriage and keeping a back channel open via Roose (who himself has no problem seeing the Starks fall). Thus the pieces could have been well in place and only waiting for a signal, which came in the form of a broken marriage arrangement. That situation would put Walder in need of a quick, certain armistice with the Lannisters.

[Blackfish Tully]

14 minutes ago, falcotron said:

As you mentioned, Riverrun is not insignificant. And the Lannisters not only grant it to him to give to a cadet branch, they even take it for him, twice. 

when did they take Riverrun twice ? the only time i remember is when Edmure handed it over . 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

8 minutes ago, cgrav said:

This would come down to a pretty tight timeline analysis, which I can't scour the text for at the moment.

But... it's quite possible that Walder was hedging before Robb's marriage and keeping a back channel open via Roose (who himself has no problem seeing the Starks fall). Thus the pieces could have been well in place and only waiting for a signal, which came in the form of a broken marriage arrangement. That situation would put Walder in need of a quick, certain armistice with the Lannisters.

of course Walder was hedging , that's what he does . he was looking to betray Robb as soon as he bent the knee just like he's looking to betray the Lannisters as soon as a better deal comes along . Frankly that's no different then most of Lords of Westeroes  so you can't blame him for that  that's just what they do . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

20 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

how much of a better deal did he really get? it's not like he was made Lord Paramount of the Riverlands , Littlefinger got that . 

He broke guest rights, pissed off a bunch of Northern and Riverland Houses and became a pariah for all of Westeroes and all he got was that one of his sons got Riverrun , not a insignificant prize by any means , but still for killing Robb and ending the war he should have gotten more . 

He got a few marriages into House Lannister, err was promised them anyway. Joy, Daven, and Lancel (or his replacement). Manderly and his ilk were too but, uh, that might not happen.

[falcotron]

5 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

when did they take Riverrun twice ? the only time i remember is when Edmure handed it over . 

OK, you're right, the first time they just tell him it's his and give him the previous Lord a a prisoner. I think Tywin would treat that as nearly equivalent to actually taking it for him in a negotiation, but it really isn't the same.