Military Strengths and More!

[Corvo the Crow]

Cookfires

Tywin's Host and Clansmen

Quote

Chella daughter of Cheyk of the Black Ears had gone ahead to scout, and it was she who brought back word of the army at the crossroads. "By their fires I call them twenty thousand strong," she said. "Their banners are red, with a golden lion."

 

Lord Tywin's camp spread over leagues. Chella's estimate of twenty thousand men could not be far wrong. The common men camped out in the open, but the knights had thrown up tents, and some of the high lords had erected pavilions as large as houses. 

Half a league from the crossroads, a barricade of sharpened stakes had been erected, manned by pikemen and archers. Behind the line, the camp spread out to the far distance. Thin fingers of smoke rose from hundreds of cookfires, mailed men sat under trees and honed their blades, and familiar banners fluttered from staffs thrust into the muddy ground.

Dusk had settled, turning all the banners black. The Lannister camp sprawled for miles between the river and the kingsroad. In amongst the men and the horses and the trees, it was easy to get lost, and Tyrion did. He passed a dozen great pavilions and a hundred cookfires.

Each clan had its own cookfire; Black Ears did not eat with Stone Crows, Stone Crows did not eat with Moon Brothers, and no one ate with Burned Men. The modest tent he had coaxed out of Lord Lefford's stores had been erected in the center of the four fires. 

Hundreds of fires for around 20000 men. 4 fires for 300 men but they are 4 different groups who will not eat together. Anyway, a cook fire is good for at least 75 people it seems.

 

Stannis' Host at Dragonstone

Quote

The morning air was hazy with the smoke of cookfires, as three thousand men sat down to break their fasts beneath the banners of their lords. 

Torches flickered along the walls of Dragonstone, and in the camp beyond, he could see hundreds of cookfires burning, as if a field of stars had fallen to the earth. 

 

Renly's Host

Quote

Thousands of cookfires filled the air with a pale smoky haze. The horse lines alone stretched out over leagues. A forest had surely been felled to make the tall staffs that held the banners. Great siege engines lined the grassy verge of the roseroad, mangonels and trebuchets and rolling rams mounted on wheels taller than a man on horseback. The steel points of pikes flamed red with sunlight, as if already blooded, while the pavilions of the knights and high lords sprouted from the grass like silken mushrooms. She saw men with spears and men with swords, men in steel caps and mail shirts, camp followers strutting their charms, archers fletching arrows, teamsters driving wagons, swineherds driving pigs, pages running messages, squires honing swords, knights riding palfreys, grooms leading ill-tempered destriers. "This is a fearsome lot of men," Ser Wendel Manderly observed as they crossed the ancient stone span from which Bitterbridge took its name.

"That it is," Catelyn agreed.

Near all the chivalry of the south had come to Renly's call, it seemed. The golden rose of Highgarden was seen everywhere: sewn on the right breast of armsmen and servants, flapping and fluttering from the green silk banners that adorned lance and pike, painted upon the shields hung outside the pavilions of the sons and brothers and cousins and uncles of House Tyrell. As well Catelyn spied the fox-and-flowers of House Florent, Fossoway apples red and green, Lord Tarly's striding huntsman, oak leaves for Oakheart, cranes for Crane, a cloud of black-and-orange butterflies for the Mullendores.

Across the Mander, the storm lords had raised their standards—Renly's own bannermen, sworn to House Baratheon and Storm's End. Catelyn recognized Bryce Caron's nightingales, the Penrose quills, and Lord Estermont's sea turtle, green on green. Yet for every shield she knew, there were a dozen strange to her, borne by the small lords sworn to the bannermen, and by hedge knights and freeriders who had come swarming to make Renly Baratheon a king in fact as well as name.

Thousands of fires Cat saw may very well be coming from the Reachmen camps alone since he sees Stormlanders much later.

 

NW Ranging (before Qhorin's arrival)

Quote

Jon clapped him on the shoulder with his burned hand. They walked back through the camp together. Cookfires were being lit all around them. 

They found Dolorous Edd frying a rasher of bacon and boiling a dozen eggs in a kettle over the Old Bear's cookfire. 

 

More than one cook fire for 200 men. LC also has his own cook fire.

 

Mance's Host

Quote

A vast blue-white wall plugged one end of the vale, squeezing between the mountains as if it had shouldered them aside, and for a moment he thought he had dreamed himself back to Castle Black. Then he realized he was looking at a river of ice several thousand feet high. Under that glittering cold cliff was a great lake, its deep cobalt waters reflecting the snowcapped peaks that ringed it. There were men down in the valley, he saw now; many men, thousands, a huge host. Some were tearing great holes in the half-frozen ground, while others trained for war. He watched as a swarming mass of riders charged a shield wall, astride horses no larger than ants. The sound of their mock battle was a rustling of steel leaves, drifting faintly on the wind. Their encampment had no plan to it; he saw no ditches, no sharpened stakes, no neat rows of horse lines. Everywhere crude earthen shelters and hide tents sprouted haphazardly, like a pox on the face of the earth. He spied untidy mounds of hay, smelled goats and sheep, horses and pigs, dogs in great profusion. Tendrils of dark smoke rose from a thousand cookfires.

 

Thousand cookfires for 40000 from many different groups.

 

So, a cookfire is enough for at least 75 people, lords will have their own cookfire, most likely knights from the nobility also, different groups will have seperate  fires.

Hundreds of fires is enough for 20000 men with many knights and lords (each of them will increase the fire count by their own alone) among their ranks.

A thousand fires is good for 40000 with many different groups.

80000 with many lords and knights need thousands of fires.

 

These were from AGOT and ACOK. Will do the rest soon.

[Free Northman Reborn]

52 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Cookfires

Tywin's Host and Clansmen

Hundreds of fires for around 20000 men. 4 fires for 300 men but they are 4 different groups who will not eat together. Anyway, a cook fire is good for at least 75 people it seems.

 

Stannis' Host at Dragonstone

 

Renly's Host

Thousands of fires Cat saw may very well be coming from the Reachmen camps alone since he sees Stormlanders much later.

 

NW Ranging (before Qhorin's arrival)

 

More than one cook fire for 200 men. LC also has his own cook fire.

 

Mance's Host

 

Thousand cookfires for 40000 from many different groups.

 

So, a cookfire is enough for at least 75 people, lords will have their own cookfire, most likely knights from the nobility also, different groups will have seperate  fires.

Hundreds of fires is enough for 20000 men with many knights and lords (each of them will increase the fire count by their own alone) among their ranks.

A thousand fires is good for 40000 with many different groups.

80000 with many lords and knights need thousands of fires.

 

These were from AGOT and ACOK. Will do the rest soon.

You take casual expressions too literally, Corvo. A thousand cookfires just means “a lot” of cookfires.

Would you expect him to have said 900 cookfires? Or 1100? Or even 2000 or 3000?

No, a thousand already means a sea of cookfires.

[Corvo the Crow]

31 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You take casual expressions too literally, Corvo. A thousand cookfires just means “a lot” of cookfires.

Would you expect hom to have said 900 cookfires? Or 1100? Or even 2000 or 3000?

No, a thousand already means a sea of cookfires.

Look again. I may have written 1000 but I wrote thousand as I know it won't be 1000.

He may have said hundreds, he may have said thousands. The fact he said neither means there aren't fires enough to compare it with Renly's but they are also so many it is in the range of 1000. 

 Lords and  knights alone make a small host by themselves in Renly's host of 80000. So it will have many times the number of Mance's fires.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

16 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Look again. I may have written 1000 but I wrote thousand as I know it won't be 1000.

He may have said hundreds, he may have said thousands. The fact he said neither means there aren't fires enough to compare it with Renly's but they are also so many it is in the range of 1000. 

 Lords and  knights alone make a small host by themselves in Renly's host of 80000. So it will have many times the number of Mance's fires.

 

Are you seriously suggesting there is a difference between writing 1000 in numbers and one thousand in words? Really, it feels like extreme grasping.

Surely the sensible thing is to assume Mance had around 40k and Renly around 80k people, roughly speaking. Going by vague references to cookfires is not very convincing. 

In this series “a thousand” has been used as a vague substitute for”a lot” too many times to trust it as anything more specific.

[Lord Varys]

On 6/28/2018 at 4:12 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Nevermind your "canon".

If the author actually has his personal opinion change his work in later editions (say, like George did with the parentage of Viserys II) I'm not complaining at all.

But if we take something like J. K. Rowling claiming Albus Dumbledore was gay and in love with Gellert Gridelwald without actually establishing or recognizably hinting at this fact in her books then this theory of hers is not really relevant for the understanding of her works as published, and people citing such interviews and using them to interpret and reinterpret the published works do not operate under the same conditions as they would if there were actually lines in the Harry Potter books as published that established this romantic relationship.

But the point here is that it is just not really good work on your point to cite a wiki as an authority. You can give us quotes, but the wikis are not written by George, and the interpretations therein may go too far at times.

On 6/28/2018 at 4:12 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

For example. When Martin shows us a point of view saying that the Gift is good farmland, and then proceeds to lament the flight of people from the Gift due to wildling raids, I am going to read that as Martin intending to show us the impact of the decline of the Night's Watch, insofar as it made even good farmland unappealing for people to live in. I'm not going to interpret that as Martin wanting to demonstrate to us (for some unfathomable reason), that Crannogmen have low standards for what constitutes good farmland.

Then you overlook the fact that George actually likes to work with the limited knowledge (and the limited intellectual capabilities) of many of the characters he creates. Lack of knowledge and understanding is a very important narrative technique George uses in his books. Knowing that there is no problem using the fact that certain characters are not likely going to be experts on this or that as a reason as to why they might be mistaken about this or that.

But then - how good farmland is is dependent on the land you actually compare it to. If that's not clear then any information you have on in is irrelevant. And compared to the lands of the Reach and the Vale and the Riverlands any farmland in the North is simply bad. That much we know.

On 6/28/2018 at 4:12 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

And as to your comment on the Cerwyns. Yes, the Cerwyns can most certainly raise more than 1000 men. That is hardly a high standard for a primary bannerman of a Lord Paramount.  1000 would be the bare minimum any of them can raise.

But the Cerwyns are a house of modest power and hardly significant when you concern yourself with military power in the North.

On 6/28/2018 at 4:40 PM, Switzeran said:

Off topic, but I don't recall George saying it was a mistake, but regardless, it is a thing that has not been changed in later editions and can be explained. Medieval coins varied in size and weight and purity. Plenty of gold coins existed that weighed 3.5 grams each or so, such as the Rhenish guilder. 9000 of those is 31.5 kilograms. 

The easiest way is to assume that there are larger coins than just a golden dragon. I mean, we have the treasury of Viserys I being split at the beginning of the Dance. Are we assuming that millions and millions of gold dragons were carried through Westeros to Casterly Rock and Oldtown (and by ship to Braavos) in sacks or chests full of millions and millions of coins?

I don't think that very likely, especially since an army of considerable strength would have been needed to protect such a fortune from outlaws and bandits, not to mention robber knights and lords notoriously short of coin.

And such expeditions across the Riverlands and the Reach would certainly have caused Rhaenyra's friends to send her a raven to Dragonstone. It makes more sense if that gold was transported in the form of larger coins or even bars.

[Free Northman Reborn]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If the author actually has his personal opinion change his work in later editions (say, like George did with the parentage of Viserys II) I'm not complaining at all.

But if we take something like J. K. Rowling claiming Albus Dumbledore was gay and in love with Gellert Gridelwald without actually establishing or recognizably hinting at this fact in her books then this theory of hers is not really relevant for the understanding of her works as published, and people citing such interviews and using them to interpret and reinterpret the published works do not operate under the same conditions as they would if there were actually lines in the Harry Potter books as published that established this romantic relationship.

But the point here is that it is just not really good work on your point to cite a wiki as an authority. You can give us quotes, but the wikis are not written by George, and the interpretations therein may go too far at times.

Then you overlook the fact that George actually likes to work with the limited knowledge (and the limited intellectual capabilities) of many of the characters he creates. Lack of knowledge and understanding is a very important narrative technique George uses in his books. Knowing that there is no problem using the fact that certain characters are not likely going to be experts on this or that as a reason as to why they might be mistaken about this or that.

But then - how good farmland is is dependent on the land you actually compare it to. If that's not clear then any information you have on in is irrelevant. And compared to the lands of the Reach and the Vale and the Riverlands any farmland in the North is simply bad. That much we know.

But the Cerwyns are a house of modest power and hardly significant when you concern yourself with military power in the North.

The easiest way is to assume that there are larger coins than just a golden dragon. I mean, we have the treasury of Viserys I being split at the beginning of the Dance. Are we assuming that millions and millions of gold dragons were carried through Westeros to Casterly Rock and Oldtown (and by ship to Braavos) in sacks or chests full of millions and millions of coins?

I don't think that very likely, especially since an army of considerable strength would have been needed to protect such a fortune from outlaws and bandits, not to mention robber knights and lords notoriously short of coin.

And such expeditions across the Riverlands and the Reach would certainly have caused Rhaenyra's friends to send her a raven to Dragonstone. It makes more sense if that gold was transported in the form of larger coins or even bars.

The issue of the wiki is a side issue which you are latching onto. It was not the basis for my point, but merely a tool which might have expedited the process. The books confirm that every member of the Night’s Watch receives combat training. We see that with even Sam going through basic training.

Ironically you yourself state that every member of the Watch is considered a fighting man, so you are not even arguing against me here.

Instead, you have interpreted the discussion to be about some other aspect of the Watch, like its level of training compared to normal soldiers it seems, when that was not even being debated.

The point was that when Jeor said any of the Stark bannermen could raise more swords than the entire Watch it meant more than the entire Watch, not just more than the number of Rangers. A point you yourself support by implication then. So we seem to be in violent agreement on that point.

Regarding the Cerwyns, we don’t even need that quote to estimate their minimum strength. Their number of reserves (300) already proves that to us. With 300 reserves they will easily exceed 1000 men in total.

[Corvo the Crow]

On 7/1/2018 at 11:22 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Are you seriously suggesting there is a difference between writing 1000 in numbers and one thousand in words? Really, it feels like extreme grasping.

Surely the sensible thing is to assume Mance had around 40k and Renly around 80k people, roughly speaking. Going by vague references to cookfires is not very convincing. 

In this series “a thousand” has been used as a vague substitute for”a lot” too many times to trust it as anything more specific.

I really don't understand why you are making this a problem. 

Tywin's "twenty thousand" or ~20000 if you will, has hundreds of fires. Renly's host has thousands. Mance's fall somewhere in between, 30000-40000, so it will likely have fewer fires than Renly's and more than Tywin's. Is it a thousand? Who knows, maybe it is exactly a thousand but even if it isn't, well it never is anyway; Robb never had 12000 men at Winterfell, Walder never had 3000 infantry, Rodrik never had 2000 men. All of them had "near this many thousand". Stannis also didn't have "fifteen hundred" men on DS after Blackwater, as we get it from himself it was thirteen hundred on DS. 

We rarely get exact figures, if ever.  As I said above, Mance's host is somewhere between Renly's and Tywin's and the fire count we are given, though vague, is also something inbetween. Surely it could be 900 or it could be 1001, we can never know but it's as good as we'll get.

Also a reminder, fire count gives a rough head count as seen with Tyrion and his clanbuddies first seeing Tywin's host and that was the intent of the post, to get some idea on amount of cookfires  and how does it relate to the amount of men, knights, lords etc.

[Free Northman Reborn]

19 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I really don't understand why you are making this a problem. 

Tywin's "twenty thousand" or ~20000 if you will, has hundreds of fires. Renly's host has thousands. Mance's fall somewhere in between, 30000-40000, so it will likely have fewer fires than Renly's and more than Tywin's. Is it a thousand? Who knows, maybe it is exactly a thousand but even if it isn't, well it never is anyway; Robb never had 12000 men at Winterfell, Walder never had 3000 infantry, Rodrik never had 2000 men. All of them had "near this many thousand". Stannis also didn't have "fifteen hundred" men on DS after Blackwater, as we get it from himself it was thirteen hundred on DS. 

We rarely get exact figures, if ever.  As I said above, Mance's host is somewhere between Renly's and Tywin's and the fire count we are given, though vague, is also something inbetween. Surely it could be 900 or it could be 1001, we can never know but it's as good as we'll get.

Also a reminder, fire count gives a rough head count as seen with Tyrion and his clanbuddies first seeing Tywin's host and that was the intent of the post, to get some idea on amount of cookfires  and how does it relate to the amount of men, knights, lords etc.

Sure, maybe I should backtrack a bit, as I incorrectly created the impression that I disagree with your entire point regarding campfires, which is not the case. Of course a larger host will have more cookfires, all things being equal.

The only part I disagreed with was the example of Jon (or whoever) looking out from the Wall onto Mance's host and referring to "a thousand cookfires filled the land below" or something similar. In that instance it seems quite clear that the reference was simply meant to convey "an endless number of cookfires filled the land before them".

A thousand might as well have been ten thousand, or endless, or uncountable, in that example. It is quite different from Bowen Marsh (I think it was him) similar comment in Dance when assessing the surviving wildlings to be approximately 4000 (or was it 3000) based on the number of fires he observed. In that case, it was meant to convey an actual numerical estimate. In the former case, it was merely a symbolic reference to "many".

[Lord Varys]

On 7/2/2018 at 12:23 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

The point was that when Jeor said any of the Stark bannermen could raise more swords than the entire Watch it meant more than the entire Watch, not just more than the number of Rangers. A point you yourself support by implication then. So we seem to be in violent agreement on that point.

The issue is not that the Watchmen all receive combat training and are thus technically all fighting men - the issue is whether Jeor Mormont, a man who actually knew how many men in his Watch could actually fight in a war, would actually count all his men as fighting men.

No proper general or commander would do that.

The same goes for the 10,000 Watchmen under Lord Commander Hoare, by the way. If the Watch had been as full of greybeards and seniles as it is during the main series, not all of those 10,000 men would have been counted as the 'fighting men' mentioned there - assuming whoever made that observation originally actually cared about counting only the proper men.

Jeor Mormont most definitely belongs to the people who count only the proper men.

I mean, technically the Watch could raise an army of their own from the Gifts, right? There are still some people there, yet nobody ever counts them among the 'fighting men' despite the fact that many levies in service of the Northern lords would be as good soldiers as the good male denizens of Mole's Town.

On 7/2/2018 at 12:23 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the Cerwyns, we don’t even need that quote to estimate their minimum strength. Their number of reserves (300) already proves that to us. With 300 reserves they will easily exceed 1000 men in total.

That isn't a given.

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The issue is not that the Watchmen all receive combat training and are thus technically all fighting men - the issue is whether Jeor Mormont, a man who actually knew how many men in his Watch could actually fight in a war, would actually count all his men as fighting men.

No proper general or commander would do that.

The same goes for the 10,000 Watchmen under Lord Commander Hoare, by the way. If the Watch had been as full of greybeards and seniles as it is during the main series, not all of those 10,000 men would have been counted as the 'fighting men' mentioned there - assuming whoever made that observation originally actually cared about counting only the proper men.

Jeor Mormont most definitely belongs to the people who count only the proper men.

I mean, technically the Watch could raise an army of their own from the Gifts, right? There are still some people there, yet nobody ever counts them among the 'fighting men' despite the fact that many levies in service of the Northern lords would be as good soldiers as the good male denizens of Mole's Town.

That isn't a given.

Not sure what this post is meant to achieve, other than posing your personal opinions as fact. Certainly no evidence is provided.

"Jeor Mormont most definitely belongs to the people who count only the proper men." Sure ,whatever you say.

"Jeor Mormont most definitely belongs to the group of people who believe in alien abductions," would have equal value as a statement representing your personal opinion and nothing more.

As for the Cerwyns. You provide even less of substance, if that is even possible.

My argument is sound, and based on logic. Robb wanted as many men as possible in as short a time as possible. The Cerwyns are loyal Stark vassals, and located closer to Winterfell than any other bannerlords. They had both the opportunity and the motive to contribute heavily to Robb's call to arms.

Logic dictates that the reserves they had left would have been a much smaller component of their total force than that which went with Robb. Just like Rodrik's 600 Winterfell men were far fewer than the main Stark force that went with Robb. Unless you are going to dispute that too.

[Lord Varys]

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

"Jeor Mormont most definitely belongs to the people who count only the proper men." Sure ,whatever you say.

Man, it is either that or we assume Mormont also counts apples and oranges as 'fighting men'. Eustace Osgrey also had a couple of dozen 'men' when he tried to wage his little war against Lady Rohanne but he realized those men weren't worth anything - and it is the same with a considerable number of Mormont's so-called 'fighting men'. 

Samwell Tarly is a 'fighting man', too, of noble birth and trained at arms since childhood yet he is still not a man a sane person would count as a 'fighting man' when making a realistic assessment of the situation at hand.

Claiming Mormont must have counted all his men is the same as claiming the men cannot judge the quality of his 'fighting men'. And we don't get the impression that he is that kind of guy.

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the Cerwyns. You provide even less of substance, if that is even possible.

My argument is sound, and based on logic. Robb wanted as many men as possible in as short a time as possible. The Cerwyns are loyal Stark vassals, and located closer to Winterfell than any other bannerlords. They had both the opportunity and the motive to contribute heavily to Robb's call to arms.

Sure, but doesn't mean their lands are large or that they cared to empty them completely. The fact that men remained behind means they still had some left. How many they brought to Robb is unknown until it is known. And right now we have no clue.

[Free Northman Reborn]

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Man, it is either that or we assume Mormont also counts apples and oranges as 'fighting men'. Eustace Osgrey also had a couple of dozen 'men' when he tried to wage his little war against Lady Rohanne but he realized those men weren't worth anything - and it is the same with a considerable number of Mormont's so-called 'fighting men'. 

Samwell Tarly is a 'fighting man', too, of noble birth and trained at arms since childhood yet he is still not a man a sane person would count as a 'fighting man' when making a realistic assessment of the situation at hand.

Claiming Mormont must have counted all his men is the same as claiming the men cannot judge the quality of his 'fighting men'. And we don't get the impression that he is that kind of guy.

Sure, but doesn't mean their lands are large or that they cared to empty them completely. The fact that men remained behind means they still had some left. How many they brought to Robb is unknown until it is known. And right now we have no clue.

Jeor was making a point to Jon. And the point was to illustrate how little difference Jon's sword could make to Robb's war effort. And the way he hammered that point in, was to point out to Jon that even the least of Winterfell's bannerlords could raise more swords than the entire Watch. The point was not to calculate the effective fighting strength of the Watch against some hypothetical foe. The point was to illustrate how great Robb's resources were compared to that of the Watch.

"Your brother is in the field with all the power of the north behind him. Any one of his lords bannermen commands more swords than you'll find in all the Night's Watch."

In any case, the Cerwyn point really drives this home. There is no way that the Cerwyns could not send the bulk of their forces with Robb. Note Lady Dustin, who even though she has a grudge against the Starks, states that she sent as few men as she dared without invoking Winterfell's suspicions.

The Cerwyns hold no grudge, and the Starks are well familiar with their strength - being the closest Lords to Winterfell. Not only would the Cerwyns not want to hold back their men, they could not hide that they were holding back even if they so wished, which they don't. And they had weeks - perhaps months - more time in which to gather their forces than the likes of the Karstarks or Umbers had, who had to travel hundreds of miles to get to Winterfell.

Time to use some logic, Lord Varys.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Man, it is either that or we assume Mormont also counts apples and oranges as 'fighting men'. Eustace Osgrey also had a couple of dozen 'men' when he tried to wage his little war against Lady Rohanne but he realized those men weren't worth anything - and it is the same with a considerable number of Mormont's so-called 'fighting men'. 

He had 8 plus Dunk and Bennis, who was never going to fight. Then Dunk sent them home. Osgrey flipped out and asked Dunk why he betrayed him. 

Your point also ignores that the watch also have enough arms and armor to equip their men -- Osgrey did not -- and that they do drill. 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He had 8 plus Dunk and Bennis, who was never going to fight. Then Dunk sent them home. Osgrey flipped out and asked Dunk why he betrayed him. 

Your point also ignores that the watch also have enough arms and armor to equip their men -- Osgrey did not -- and that they do drill. 

It wasn't supposed to be a completely fitting analogy - once Osgrey has cooled down he concedes Dunk's point.

I'm not saying the Watchmen aren't equipped - of course they are. I'm just saying that a considerable portion of them are old, done men. Does Mormont himself even count as a proper 'fighting man'? The man is in his seventies, after all. He may recall how you kill a man, but can he still do it in battle?

57 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Jeor was making a point to Jon. And the point was to illustrate how little difference Jon's sword could make to Robb's war effort. And the way he hammered that point in, was to point out to Jon that even the least of Winterfell's bannerlords could raise more swords than the entire Watch. The point was not to calculate the effective fighting strength of the Watch against some hypothetical foe. The point was to illustrate how great Robb's resources were compared to that of the Watch.

That goes without saying - which also adds to my point that Mormont might have been using hyperbole in this entire little speech, giving no adequate estimation of the strength of anyone aside from the obvious fact that the Watch isn't much weaker than the Lord of Winterfell.

57 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In any case, the Cerwyn point really drives this home. There is no way that the Cerwyns could not send the bulk of their forces with Robb. Note Lady Dustin, who even though she has a grudge against the Starks, states that she sent as few men as she dared without invoking Winterfell's suspicions.

Those things have nothing to do with each other. There are other reasons aside from risking the ire of the Starks as to why lords might keep more men at home than others - the next harvest, for instance. The Winter Town is of crucial importance for the Northmen in winter and perhaps the Cerwyns kept more men at home to ensure that there are more provisions available in winter. Unlike other Northern lords who ignored common sense in their attempt to please their boy lord.

57 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Time to use some logic, Lord Varys.

You are not using logic, you create dichotomies where they don't need to be any. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It wasn't supposed to be a completely fitting analogy - once Osgrey has cooled down he concedes Dunk's point.

I'm not saying the Watchmen aren't equipped - of course they are. I'm just saying that a considerable portion of them are old, done men. Does Mormont himself even count as a proper 'fighting man'? The man is in his seventies, after all. He may recall how you kill a man, but can he still do it in battle?

It wasn't a fitting analogy because it was grossly exaggerated, both in numbers and equipment and training.

I'm guessing he can still do it in battle since he was more than willing to pull a knife on two NW who are already armed. Arya, an 8 year old, kills a much older, stronger squire "in battle." I'd hazard a guess the late 60s/early 70s yet rather large and broad, presumably strong, Mormont can kill a man, especially armed in line with his station. I trust the man's instincts more than .... nothing to compare it against. William Marshal and Friedrich Barbarossa both fought well into their 60s and later.

[Corvo the Crow]

How many ships did Salla have at start? Davos sees his flagship and two dozen galleys, but when he goes to wall he has 29 with the exception of Mad Prendos who carried Edric away. After becoming Lord of Blackwater bay he commandeered some ships so that explains the increase in number but did he lose any ships before going to the Wall? Did he have any ships sailing around when Davos first saw his fleet?

[Free Northman Reborn]

I’m interested in the largest hosts ever raised by each of the Seven Kingdoms.

For Dorne, it seems 10k is the largest confirmed host we hear about. Might be that the two hosts raised in the passes by Doran recently may exceed that.

For the North it seems 30k. 

For the West, 35k, assuming Tywin and Jaime’s hosts were joined together before splitting up in the recent war.

For the Reach, I guess the 60k - 70k in the recent war is their largest host ever. Although it was not all in one place.

[Corvo the Crow]

35 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I’m interested in the largest hosts ever raised by each of the Seven Kingdoms.

For Dorne, it seems 10k is the largest confirmed host we hear about. Might be that the two hosts raised in the passes by Doran recently may exceed that.

For the North it seems 30k. 

For the West, 35k, assuming Tywin and Jaime’s hosts were joined together before splitting up in the recent war.

For the Reach, I guess the 80k in the recent war is their largest host ever. Although it was not all in one place.

80K is also including stormlanders, though there aren't too many of them compared to Reach.

My largest find for SL is less than 10000 of Argilac against Orys.

Riverlands have 11000 under Edmure, considering how he suffered greatly, his first host must have been considerably larger.

Crownlands have repeatedly gathered hosts of 4-5K.

Balon, if you consider the fleet a host also, has 400 or so ships. Average long ship has 25-30 people, Ironfleet ships three times that. So he had 15000-18000.

 

I am interested in how much men  regions could provide; by regions I don't mean North and Reach, but say Mountains of the North or Moon Mountains or Dornish Marches.

Say, for example Caron and Dondarrion with presumably some considerable hedge knight presence have near 4000 foot and 800 horsemen and they are only two of the 4 marchet lords of SL. Caron, Dondarrion and Tarly gather 7500 men since Peakes, Swans and Selmys are also marcher lords, Dornish marches put together may possibly be able to raise as many men as the average LP.

For the mountains, north clans have 2000-3000 men even after sending some to Robb and Moon clans also have the same amount it seems; They want equipment enough for 3000 men from Tyrion.

I really wonder how many men Dornish of the Red Mountains could have or how many from the entirety of the desert. How many from fingers or Vale of Arryn.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

80K is also including stormlanders, though there aren't too many of them compared to Reach.

My largest find for SL is less than 10000 of Argilac against Orys.

Riverlands have 11000 under Edmure, considering how he suffered greatly, his first host must have been considerably larger.

Crownlands have repeatedly gathered hosts of 4-5K.

Balon, if you consider the fleet a host also, has 400 or so ships. Average long ship has 25-30 people, Ironfleet ships three times that. So he had 15000-18000.

 

 

I subsequently edited the Reach number down to closer to 60k. Renly “says” he has 80k gathered. But considering it is more a tourney than a warhost on the march I question how many were actual soldiers. In any case, let’s assume he was not exaggerating (unusual for Renly, but anyway). That’s 80k, of which maybe 20k could have been Stormlanders. That means 60k Reachmen, plus the 10k at Highgarden.

[Corvo the Crow]

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I subsequently edited the Reach number down to closer to 60k. Renly “says” he has 80k gathered. But considering it is more a tourney than a warhost on the march I question how many were actual soldiers. In any case, let’s assume he was not exaggerating (unusual for Renly, but anyway). That’s 80k, of which maybe 20k could have been Stormlanders. That means 60k Reachmen, plus the 10k at Highgarden.

From what we have seen so far, I don't think SL has 20000 men. I mean not with Renly, since from what we know so far, 20000 is likely their entire strength, if they even have that many.

Reach had ~35000 against Aegon and this is excluding Hightowers who we later see to have perhaps 10000 men or even more, some 100 years later. Stormlands in Aegon'a time, don't even have 10000 from what we see. I think it's safe to think Reach has 4-5 times the men of the entire Stormlands so Renly's host which lacks some major SL bannermen must be less than 1/5-1/6 of the entire force.