Military Strengths-2 and More!

[Corvo the Crow]

Florents’ 2000 being their number from dance makes Hightowers having three times the men they do. “Three times the men as any other lord” perhaps?

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Anyone willing to help compile a list of lords and landed knights in the Great Hightower host? 

May later try to assign numbers on these lords.

Sounds like a futile enterprise unless we are given numbers. Keep in mind that we don't really have good numbers on the complete size of the Hightower host.

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Ormund forces anyone who bends the knee to join to him and from his first battle, two Alans, Tarly and Beesbury is captured and Owen Costayne is also “captured”

Hightower does not only force Black loyalists to join his cause who took up arms against him - he also forces men to join him whose lands his army marches through.

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Norcrosses are bannermen to Florents so they were likely part of this army as well, whether willingly or through defeat, though likely willing since Norcross is trusted to be part of caltrops.

No, this does not follow. We don't even know whether House Norcross as such is sworn to Brightwater. All we know is that a member of that house is a household knight of a Florent during the main series. But Rogar Royce being a household knight of Renly doesn't mean House Royce is sworn to Storm's End, does it?

The fact that no Florent is mentioned as being with the Hightower implies at this point that there were no Florents there. Especially since a Lord Florent certainly would have more than enough prestige to demand the supreme command of the army after Lord Ormund's death. They are descendants of House Gardener, after all.

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Also, Stannis says Florents have two thousand men but we see them having perhaps a thousand horses or even more (more than half of the 1300-1500 on dragonstone and men lost in the van) this extraordinarily high horse to foot ratio may not be what it seems and Stannis may just be reciting an older, well documented number with Florents having more men now.

George doesn't exactly seem to be consistent insofar as Stannis' Florent men are concerned - and are the 2,000 men the Florent men plus bannermen/vassals, or only the men the Florents alone could raise? We don't know. Considering the context - Mace Tyrell sticking with Renly - chances are not that bad that those 2,000 are only the men the Florents themselves could muster. After all, chances would be very bad that the Florent bannermen/vassals would actually risk provoking the ire of Highgarden and all their neighbors...

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Some numbers; 

- Hightower set out with 1000 knights, 5000 men-at-arms and unknown number of rabble and sellswords.

- Peake had 100 knights and 900 men-at-arms. Also 500 sellswords when he became regent, these must have been part of the Original army that left Oldtown.

Not necessarily. Years passed between the dismissal of the Hightower army and Lord Peake's arrival in KL. He could have hired sellswords in the meantime.

[The Grey Wolf]

@Corvo the Crow

There were post-Honeywine Green victories wherein Goldengrove, Old Oak, and the Shield Isles were subdued but again we're given no details.

[Corvo the Crow]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Hightower does not only force Black loyalists to join his cause who took up arms against him - he also forces men to join him whose lands his army marches through

All the better to get some idea on the Reach as a whole

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, this does not follow. We don't even know whether House Norcross as such is sworn to Brightwater. All we know is that a member of that house is a household knight of a Florent during the main series. But Rogar Royce being a household knight of Renly doesn't mean House Royce is sworn to Storm's End, does it?

My bad, I misremember it. But from all the families we see, Rogar Royce is not the norm, even the poor Umbers and Karstarks have cousins lying around and their weaker neighbour redforts and even the poor lord of the sisters have all their sons with them.

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The fact that no Florent is mentioned as being with the Hightower implies at this point that there were no Florents there. Especially since a Lord Florent certainly would have more than enough prestige to demand the supreme command of the army after Lord Ormund's death. They are descendants of House Gardener, after all.

But as you said, he forces everyone and Florents are right next to them.

[Corvo the Crow]

@Ran

It is my understanding from all that we see that most of the smaller Lordly houses, or petty lords, barely raise a hundred men or a bit above and most of the powerful houses are able to raise several hundreds or perhaps even a thousand but those go above that, say Karstarks with near 3000, are  really the exception and not the norm. Can you confirm this?

When Manderly tells that he has “a hundred landed knights and a dozen petty lords” to Davos, who is just lorded recently and has been a landed knight himself the past 15 years, is he conveying him information on his numbers? If the average petty lord or landed knight’s numbers fall in some range, which I suspect it does or else the lord wouldn’t be “petty”, Davos would  be able to paint in his mind a picture of Manderly’s power.

 

I may have asked this before, but we see Karstark and Umber being granted towers in MC, does it show that Karstarks are the most powerful in the host that went south from Winterfell?

I think these may support the idea 

Quote

There was where I sat, the last time I was here, he remembered. Robbwas at the head of the table, with the Greatjon to his right and Roose Bolton on his left. The Glovers sat next to Helman Tallhart. Karstark and his sons were across from them.

Greatjon, his right hand man, sits  to his right, Roose is to his left, Karstarks sit opposite.

Quote

 Edmure sat in the high seat of the Tullys, with Brynden Blackfish at his side, and his father's bannermen arrayed to right and left and along the side tables. Word of the victory at Riverrun had spread to the fugitive lords of the Trident, drawing them back. Karyl Vance came in, a lord now, his father dead beneath the Golden Tooth. Ser Marq Piper was with him, and they brought a Darry, Ser Raymun's son, a lad no older than Bran. Lord Jonos Bracken arrived from the ruins of Stone Hedge, glowering and blustering, and took a seat as far from Tytos Blackwood as the tables would permit.

The northern lords sat opposite, with Catelyn and Robb facing her brother across the tables. They were fewer. The Greatjonsat at Robb's left hand, and then Theon Greyjoy; Galbart Glover and Lady Mormont were to the right of Catelyn. Lord Rickard Karstark, gaunt and hollow-eyed in his grief, took his seat like a man in a nightmare,

Catelyn as his mother sits right to him, Greatjon, ‘his right hand man’ to his left and next to him sits Theon, his foster brother. The ‘most powerful’ person not a Northmen, Edmure, sits across and with his uncle to his right.

[Free Northman Reborn]

52 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

@Ran

It is my understanding from all that we see that most of the smaller Lordly houses, or petty lords, barely raise a hundred men or a bit above and most of the powerful houses are able to raise several hundreds or perhaps even a thousand but those go above that, say Karstarks with near 3000, are  really the exception and not the norm. Can you confirm this?

When Manderly tells that he has “a hundred landed knights and a dozen petty lords” to Davos, who is just lorded recently and has been a landed knight himself the past 15 years, is he conveying him information on his numbers? If the average petty lord or landed knight’s numbers fall in some range, which I suspect it does or else the lord wouldn’t be “petty”, Davos would  be able to paint in his mind a picture of Manderly’s power.

 

I may have asked this before, but we see Karstark and Umber being granted towers in MC, does it show that Karstarks are the most powerful in the host that went south from Winterfell?

 

The range is extensive. For Landed Knights it stretches from House Osgrey at the bottom to House Templeton at the top, and everything inbetween.

For petty lords one would imagine on average an order of magnitude advantage over landed knights. You mentioned an 8-fold step up from landed knight to petty lord in the past, and I think it is as good an estimate as any. On an average basis.

Given the wide range, a petty lord 8 times House Osgrey’s strength would still be less than a twentieth of House Templeton’s strength, more than validating Martin’s statement about the overlap, with powerful landed knights exceeding weak lords in strength.

[Corvo the Crow]

23 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The range is extensive. For Landed Knights it stretches from House Osgrey at the bottom to House Templeton at the top, and everything inbetween.

For petty lords one would imagine on average an order of magnitude advantage over landed knights. You mentioned an 8-fold step up from landed knight to petty lord in the past, and I think it is as good an estimate as any. On an average basis.

Given the wide range, a petty lord 8 times House Osgrey’s strength would still be less than a twentieth of House Templeton’s strength, more than validating Martin’s statement about the overlap, with powerful landed knights exceeding weak lords in strength.

Well there are some really powerful landed knights, yes, but I am talking about most of them. Templetons or Glovers or even Tallharts are exceptions and not the norm I think as these all have vassals beneath them. Even Osgrey shouldn’t be the bottom, If there’s a one village lord LF, then there would be many one village knights.

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

I may have asked this before, but we see Karstark and Umber being granted towers in MC, does it show that Karstarks are the most powerful in the host that went south from Winterfell?

I think these may support the idea 

Greatjon, his right hand man, sits  to his right, Roose is to his left, Karstarks sit opposite.

Catelyn as his mother sits right to him, Greatjon, ‘his right hand man’ to his left and next to him sits Theon, his foster brother. The ‘most powerful’ person not a Northmen, Edmure, sits across and with his uncle to his right.

More supporting evidence

Quote

Hodor washed the sweat from him with a warm, damp cloth and dressed him with deft and gentle hands. When it was time, he carried him down to the Great Hall, where a long trestle table had been set up near the fire. The lord's seat at the head of the table had been left empty, but Robb sat to the right of it, with Bran across from him.

Lord’s seat is empty, Robb, his heir and closest to him, is seated to the right, Bran, the second most powerful/important person to the Robb is seated opposite to him.

Quote

And soon enough he learned the faces too, when the lords and their sons and knights retainer came to Winterfell to feast. Even the Great Hall was not large enough to seatall of them at once, so Robb hosted each of the principal bannermen in turn. Bran was always given the place of honor at his brother's right hand. Some of the lords bannermen gave him queer hard stares as he sat there, as if they wondered by what right a green boy should be placed above them, and him a cripple too.

 

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

@Ran

It is my understanding from all that we see that most of the smaller Lordly houses, or petty lords, barely raise a hundred men or a bit above and most of the powerful houses are able to raise several hundreds or perhaps even a thousand but those go above that, say Karstarks with near 3000, are  really the exception and not the norm. Can you confirm this?

We cannot claim to know whether the men lords showed up at Winterfell are all *their men* in the sense that they were all obliged to go to war because their feudal responsibilities, etc. An unknown number may have been sellswords or freeriders joining them from regions they do not nominally control.

The Karstarks really over-extended themselves during the War of the Five Kings, that seems clear.

12 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

When Manderly tells that he has “a hundred landed knights and a dozen petty lords” to Davos, who is just lorded recently and has been a landed knight himself the past 15 years, is he conveying him information on his numbers? If the average petty lord or landed knight’s numbers fall in some range, which I suspect it does or else the lord wouldn’t be “petty”, Davos would  be able to paint in his mind a picture of Manderly’s power.

There would be no way of knowing this, especially since the Manderly lands are not exactly representative of 'the average lord's holdings' in relation to any of the other regions - or of the average Northern lord's holdings as such.

This is a feudal setting with feudal structures that have grown and developed for centuries and millennia. The lands of two neighboring lords may have completely different feudal framework due to that - especially if the Manderlys were one of them since they are Andals bringing their laws and customs and feudal framework with them from the Reach.

As for landed knights - if we count Davos as one such then it is quite clear that landed knights are the huge majority of the knights in Westeros, not household knights. Because pretty much all Davos (and Eustace Osgrey, too) have are towers in the middle of nowhere. Knights who don't have towers to live in and incomes of their own would be basically nothing but hangers-on at the courts of their lords. And only very wealthy lords could afford to finance and equip armed and armored hangers-on...

With both a landed knight and a petty lord being completely ill-defined and relative terms (What lord is not petty when compared to the Lord of Casterly Rock, the Lord of Highgarden or the Lord of Oldtown? What is the average landed knight if the scope includes both the Templetons and the Seaworths?) we cannot really make a judgment on this. And we are not supposed to. That's why the terms are as ill-defined as they are.

George never wanted to give an in-depth picture of the feudal system of his world. 

12 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I may have asked this before, but we see Karstark and Umber being granted towers in MC, does it show that Karstarks are the most powerful in the host that went south from Winterfell?

I think these may support the idea 

Greatjon, his right hand man, sits  to his right, Roose is to his left, Karstarks sit opposite.

In medieval settings precedence at table is not equivalent to military setting in this or that campaign. It reflects birth, nobility of lineage, kinship to the lord/king in question, personal relationship to the lord/king, etc.

The high standing of House Karstark may be due the fact that they are actually Starks through the male line. It goes back a long time but this is more than any of the other noble houses can boast. The Karstarks are still Starks in the real sense of the word - apparently in unbroken male line.

It may certainly be that the Karstarks control greater, richer, more fertile lands than comparable Northern lands precisely because they are Starks themselves, having been rewarded with rich holdings back when the house was founded - or acquiring them overtime because they were always fiercely loyal.

Or not. Perhaps Lord Rickard sucks up so much to Ned and Robb because he hopes to reap great rewards and favors when the war is over. It is kind of telling, perhaps, that Alys Karstark was not betrothed to Robb back in the day...

12 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Catelyn as his mother sits right to him, Greatjon, ‘his right hand man’ to his left and next to him sits Theon, his foster brother. The ‘most powerful’ person not a Northmen, Edmure, sits across and with his uncle to his right.

Lord Umber is clearly elevated later - because Robb shows him great favor. Both rank and strength-wise the Umbers are not that significant a house. But then, many great Northern lords are no longer with Robb at Riverrun. Lord Manderly is not there, Lady Dustin is not there, Lord Bolton is not there, etc.

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Both rank and strength-wise the Umbers are not that significant a house.

Oh boy, here we go again. Your opinion stated as fact. On what evidence, pray tell, do you base this latest flight of fancy?

[Corvo the Crow]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Both rank and strength-wise the Umbers are not that significant a house.

Strength wise I’d agree but not on Rank. He doesn’t accept to be put behind Cerwyns or Hornwoods, powerful but seemingly new houses.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Strength wise I’d agree but not on Rank. He doesn’t accept to be put behind Cerwyns or Hornwoods, powerful but seemingly new houses.

You have no information on House Umber's strength. However, they are a major historical house, ruling a territory stretching 300 miles down the Kingsroad, who appear every bit as prominent as the Karstarks in Robb's war councils. And they raise 800 reserves in Dance, after already enthusiastically committing their prime forces to Robb's original army.

There is no reason to think they are weaker than the Karstarks, whose territory borders on their own, and is actually slightly smaller than the Umber lands.

[Corvo the Crow]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You have no information on House Umber's strength. However, they are a major historical house, ruling a territory stretching 300 miles down the Kingsroad, who appear every bit as prominent as the Karstarks in Robb's war councils. And they raise 800 reserves in Dance, after already enthusiastically committing their prime forces to Robb's original army.

There is no reason to think they are weaker than the Karstarks, whose territory borders on their own, and is actually slightly smaller than the Umber lands.

Even after their losses, which were great enough to reduce the near 15000(Freys excluded) foot to 10000, Combined infantry strength of Karstark, Hornwood, Cerwyn and Glover is around 3500 (without Tallharts) and a reminder that near 700 Karstarkrs are missing from that count. More than half of Robb’s infantry inWinterfell is made up of these houses and even after this there are some Cerwyns with Roose.

 

Those “reserves” are old men and young boys, Karstark men raised later are not. Cerwyn and Bolton men we see aren’t old men either.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Even after their losses, which were great enough to reduce the near 15000(Freys excluded) foot to 10000, Combined infantry strength of Karstark, Hornwood, Cerwyn and Glover is around 3500 (without Tallharts) and a reminder that near 700 Karstarkrs are missing from that count. More than half of Robb’s infantry inWinterfell is made up of these houses and even after this there are some Cerwyns with Roose.

I don't understand the above post. How does this relate to the Umber strength?

[Corvo the Crow]

23 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don't understand the above post. How does this relate to the Umber strength?

Greatjon threatens Robb so as not to be placed behind Cerwyns and Hornwoods. These houses doesn’t stretch back to dawn of days, apparently nor were they kings of old, or else we’d have been told. But there’s this ‘risk’ of Umbers who are old in name and former kings to be placed behind them or else why would he make that threat? I can’t think of any other reason besides strength, so I ask you, why?

[Free Northman Reborn]

Just now, Corvo the Crow said:

Greatjon threatens Robb so as not to be placed behind Cerwyns and Hornwoods. These houses doesn’t stretch back to dawn of days, apparently nor were they kings of old, or else we’d have been told. But there’s this ‘risk’ of Umbers who are old in name and former kings to be placed behind them or else why would he make that threat? I can’t think of any other reason, so I ask you, why?

The order of march has nothing to do with troop numbers. Are the Boltons in front (given that they brought the most men), followed by the Karstarks (who seem to be in the runninng for the second largest contribution)? Are the Manderlys at the back, in the middle, or in the front? And whatever the order, how was it decided? Based on chronology of when a House joined Robb? The Cerwyns and Hornwoods had the shortest distance to travel, while the Umbers would have arrived later.

No, the order of march has no relation to troop numbers.

To me the Boltons, Karstarks and Umbers seem the most prominent contributors to Robb's host, in that order.

[Corvo the Crow]

48 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The order of march has nothing to do with troop numbers. Are the Boltons in front (given that they brought the most men), followed by the Karstarks (who seem to be in the runninng for the second largest contribution)? Are the Manderlys at the back, in the middle, or in the front? And whatever the order, how was it decided? Based on chronology of when a House joined Robb? The Cerwyns and Hornwoods had the shortest distance to travel, while the Umbers would have arrived later.

No, the order of march has no relation to troop numbers.

To me the Boltons, Karstarks and Umbers seem the most prominent contributors to Robb's host, in that order.

Well, it has to do with honors and why would they be honored above Umbers beside troop numbers?

Also nowhere it is stated, let alone implied Roose brought the most. Going through a lot of tunnels this morning and will dispute it later at night.

[Free Northman Reborn]

15 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Well, it has to do with honors and why would they be honored above Umbers beside troop numbers?

Also nowhere it is stated, let alone implied Roose brought the most. Going through a lot of tunnels this morning and will dispute it later at night.

Not the Bolton thing again. Fact is, the Bolton numbers are between 2100-3500 when Roose RETURNS up the Neck in Dance. Doesn't leave much room for them to be less than 2300 at the start.

Anyway, regarding order of march, that scene was more likely inserted just to show the ferocity of the Umbers and how the boy Robb dealt with that challenge. It was designed to show him rising to the challenge of commanding seasoned, fierce lords like the Umbers. Not to indicate who of the Umbers or Hornwoods had the greatest esteem.

Might as well ask why the Umbers get a Tower when the Boltons or Manderlys don't.

That is certainly not enough justification to base the Umbers army size on.

More interestingly, the Umbers have 400 old men in Dance. So you might want to consider, what percentage of the male medieval demographic would be able bodied men above say 55 years of age? Then compare that number to the number of able bodied males between say 15 and 55. That should give a fair estimate of the number of prime age men vs old men the Umbers have available.

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Not the Bolton thing again. Fact is, the Bolton numbers are between 2100-3500 when Roose RETURNS up the Neck in Dance. Doesn't leave much room for them to be less than 2300 at the start

Well you brought it up.

For starters, since when do you take Theon’s word? You disregard him when he says Ramsay has a fifth of Rodrik,  even though Ramsay confirms it himself but you take his word as canon when it suits to inflate Bolton numbers, this is contradicting yourself.

Now I don’t want to turn this into a dictionary warfare so this would hopefully suffice;

Quote

Some fivehundred horse and three thousand foot, my lady. Dreadfort men, in chief, and some from Karhold. With the loyalty of the Karstarks so doubtful now, I thought it best to keep them close. I regret there are not more."

The northmen followed hard behind the van, their tattered banners streaming in the wind. Reek watched them pass. Most were afoot, and there were so few of them. He remembered the great host that marched south with Young Wolf, beneath the direwolf of Winterfell. Twenty thousand swords and spears had gone off to war with Robb, or near enough to make no matter, but only two in ten were coming back, and most of those were Dreadfort men.

Now this is Northmen and Dreadfort men. As vague a statement as you would get.

Now let’s take a look at something else

Quote

Stannis still had some fifteenhundred on Dragonstone, more than half of them Florents

   O room to wiggle, this is exacr

[Free Northman Reborn]

58 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Well you brought it up.

For starters, since when do you take Theon’s word? You disregard him when he says Ramsay has a fifth of Rodrik,  even though Ramsay confirms it himself but you take his word as canon when it suits to inflate Bolton numbers, this is contradicting yourself.

Now I don’t want to turn this into a dictionary warfare so this would hopefully suffice;

Now this is Northmen and Dreadfort men. As vague a statement as you would get.

Now let’s take a look at something else

   O room to wiggle, this is exacr

I'm happy to engage on this. But I think the text is crystal clear.

We have Martin using two separate sources, in logical sequence, each clearly articulating the majority Bolton portion of first Roose's 3500 strong host returning to the Twins, and then later, of the total surviving Northern host of 4000 returning up the Neck.

I don't see a logical justification to dispute those rather dispassionate statements, with no in-world reason for them to be overstated.

In fact, there is significant in-world justification for Roose to have preserved his own men while having those of other lords severely reduced. And this is the core message that Martin was communicating in both those instances.

Against that we have absolutely nothing to suggest a different view.

As for the Florent example you quote. I don't understand the relevance. It says more than half of Stannis's 1500 men are Florents. What is the problem with that?  I believe it. It means at least 750 of his men are Florents. If I had to guess, the connotation of that statement seems to suggest somewhere between 800 and 900 Florents.

I would personally not use the term "more than half" if there were 1000 Florents, for example. Then I might rather state two thirds, or use the more imprecise term of "Florents in chief". I think I know what you are trying to get at, so I will preempt it by saying that no, I don't think "more than half" and "in chief" are the same thing. I think "in chief" suggests a greater majority than merely "more than half". But that is just how I would write it.

Either way, that's why I say the Bolton numbers returning to the North are between 2100 and 3500 (with 2100 being barely more than half, so a conservative estimate). If I had to guess, though, based on the way Martin reiterates the Bolton majority both through Roose and Theon's statements, I would put the returning Bolton numbers at upwards of 2500 out of 4000.

EDIT

So I've just googled the meaning of "chiefly"  and found the following definitions:

(focus) especially or primarily; above all

(focus) mainly or principally; almost entirely

So while I didn't have these meanings learnt by rote in my head, I do believe I have a decent feel for language and that this is the general image "in chief" conveys to me. It is a stronger term than "more than half".