Military Strengths-2 and More!

[PrinceoftheTides]

To be honest I've always thought that Martin got carried away with numbers of armies with the progression of the story and could not be reliable.

I mean in Clash of Kings we have (stannis' estimate, which is still not an objective data) 2000 men, (500 on horse) for house Florent, but that not seems really a number linked to what is considered, in the present in the books, as one of the most prominent Houses of the Reach, that was still considered fit to be linked in marriage to the brother of the king (at the time probably also the heir presumtive or at least second in line of succession, given that Edric Storm, fathered at Stannis' marriage), is more or less at the same age that Joffrey, which means that either Robert had no sons, or just Joffrey stood before Stannis in line of succession at the time.

Also, the only soldiers from houses from the reach and stormlands that Stannis had with him on the Blackwater were cavalry, since the foot army remained at bitterbridge at the time of Renly's death. That included House Florent's, that, still with the losses of the battle, constituted the bulk of the forces brought back to Dragonstone and constituted, by multiple accounts, the vast majority of Stannis remaining army at dragonstone and Castle Black.

That means that, even if we make the unlikely assumption that all the Florent force was safely rescued by Saan, there were more than 500 Florent cavalrymen at the Blackwater.

 

That is just one example, but that is to say that the figures and numbers Martin gave in the earlier books, could probably not taken in account as absolute truth in the estimates.

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

50 minutes ago, PrinceoftheTides said:

To be honest I've always thought that Martin got carried away with numbers of armies with the progression of the story and could not be reliable.

I mean in Clash of Kings we have (stannis' estimate, which is still not an objective data) 2000 men, (500 on horse) for house Florent, but that not seems really a number linked to what is considered, in the present in the books, as one of the most prominent Houses of the Reach, that was still considered fit to be linked in marriage to the brother of the king (at the time probably also the heir presumtive or at least second in line of succession, given that Edric Storm, fathered at Stannis' marriage), is more or less at the same age that Joffrey, which means that either Robert had no sons, or just Joffrey stood before Stannis in line of succession at the time.

Also, the only soldiers from houses from the reach and stormlands that Stannis had with him on the Blackwater were cavalry, since the foot army remained at bitterbridge at the time of Renly's death. That included House Florent's, that, still with the losses of the battle, constituted the bulk of the forces brought back to Dragonstone and constituted, by multiple accounts, the vast majority of Stannis remaining army at dragonstone and Castle Black.

That means that, even if we make the unlikely assumption that all the Florent force was safely rescued by Saan, there were more than 500 Florent cavalrymen at the Blackwater.

 

That is just one example, but that is to say that the figures and numbers Martin gave in the earlier books, could probably not taken in account as absolute truth in the estimates.

 

 

I do think there are elements of that. The original 12000 gathered at Winterfell are particularly difficult to reconcile with later events.

But Martin has said that he doesn't like people using rulers to measure his every number, whether it be distance, time passed or army numbers, trying to find inconsistencies.

I'm not sure how far ahead the Bolton betrayal was planned by George, and whether it was even fleshed out in his mind at the time that the original host gathered at Winterfell. Certainly the Red Wedding was planned, but whether it would involve the Boltons or just the Freys, might well have been unknown at that point in time.

So it might well be that Martin wanted the Boltons to take on greater prominence later in the series, and did not feel the need to be bound by the constraints of his original 12000. Just like he fleshed out the Dustins and Ryswells to a much greater extent later in the series.

[PrinceoftheTides]

Uhm if we make credit to the story, Roose Bolton betrayal was a consequence of the some factors: the loss of Stannis at the Blackwater, Robb unwillingness to surrender and the circumstance that had him in command of most of the North forces in the Riverlands.

So, of course Martin had the idea since the beginning, but, in terms of the story, it is not likely that Roose wanted to betray since the beginning. He might however, as most of the north lords, keep a fair part of his forces at home.

I mean it is reasonable that, as in medioeval Europe, as a vassal you were owed to send troops to your liege's cause, but I think half of your available manpower would be the reasonable amount to send.

Lady Dustin's reason to provide few men as possible are stated, altough that subplot have probably been crafted ex post and was not present at the time of GoT. Although, to be fair with Martin, House Ryswell and Dustin did not send a men to besiege Winterfell from Theon (on the contrary we got reference to Flints banner among the other most prominent houses).

[Free Northman Reborn]

17 minutes ago, PrinceoftheTides said:

Uhm if we make credit to the story, Roose Bolton betrayal was a consequence of the some factors: the loss of Stannis at the Blackwater, Robb unwillingness to surrender and the circumstance that had him in command of most of the North forces in the Riverlands.

So, of course Martin had the idea since the beginning, but, in terms of the story, it is not likely that Roose wanted to betray since the beginning. He might however, as most of the north lords, keep a fair part of his forces at home.

I mean it is reasonable that, as in medioeval Europe, as a vassal you were owed to send troops to your liege's cause, but I think half of your available manpower would be the reasonable amount to send.

Lady Dustin's reason to provide few men as possible are stated, altough that subplot have probably been crafted ex post and was not present at the time of GoT. Although, to be fair with Martin, House Ryswell and Dustin did not send a men to besiege Winterfell from Theon (on the contrary we got reference to Flints banner among the other most prominent houses).

George takes the gardener approach to writing. He does not have all the details fleshed out from the start. Who can say which parts of the Red Wedding he had planned out in advance, and even so, how much of the aftermath evolved as he progressed with the story.

In any case, the relevant troops here are the ones with Roose in the South. How many he kept back is a different issue. And for the bulk of the returning 4000 Northmen to be Dreadfort men, means that having around 2500 Boltons in Robb's original host seems kind of a bare minimum.

[PrinceoftheTides]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

George takes the gardener approach to writing. He does not have all the details fleshed out from the start. Who can say which parts of the Red Wedding he had planned out in advance, and even so, how much of the aftermath evolved as he progressed with the story. 

In any case, the relevant troops here are the ones with Roose in the South. How many he kept back is a different issue. And for the bulk of the returning 4000 Northmen to be Dreadfort men, means that a minimum of around 2500 Boltons in Robb's original host seems kind of a bare minimum. 

 

Yes, indeed. And 2500 out of 12000 is simply too much as you said. That would made the Bolton's force around 20% of Robb's army at Winterfell, which is difficult to imagine :-)

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Oh boy, here we go again. Your opinion stated as fact. On what evidence, pray tell, do you base this latest flight of fancy?

On the obvious fact that they are on the vicinity of the North, unable to prevent wildling raids on their turf, and their overall description and behavior puts them closer to the clansmen than 'proper lords'.

But the point I was making is just that it makes no sense to use precedence at table (especially if we don't know how the rules for that go in Westeros) as reflecting military strength. That's video game logic.

8 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Strength wise I’d agree but not on Rank. He doesn’t accept to be put behind Cerwyns or Hornwoods, powerful but seemingly new houses.

I didn't say the Umbers were a completely insignificant house - but Jon being afraid to be forced to march behind them indicates he may be afraid that this might happen, no? Meaning rank-wise when compared to the entire North he may be seen as equal to these guys, not definitely outranking them - if he were outranking them and it was a clear humiliation to have him march behind them then nobody would consider that - unless they want humiliate the Umbers. Which Robb has no intention of doing as far as we know.

The Greatjon rises to great prominence because he becomes Robb's greatest fan and yes-man, not because he has a right to demand such a high place of honor.

The fact that Umbers once were king gives them a prestige other houses do not have. But when you compare former kings to former kings then the Umbers are shabby kings compared to the Boltons. And the Karstarks don't have to be former kings to have a greater prestige - they are Stark through the male, the really important royal blood in the North.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

On the obvious fact that they are on the vicinity of the North, unable to prevent wildling raids on their turf, and their overall description and behavior puts them closer to the clansmen than 'proper lords'.

But the point I was making is just that it makes no sense to use precedence at table (especially if we don't know how the rules for that go in Westeros) as reflecting military strength. That's video game logic.

I didn't say the Umbers were a completely insignificant house - but Jon being afraid to be forced to march behind them indicates he may be afraid that this might happen, no? Meaning rank-wise when compared to the entire North he may be seen as equal to these guys, not definitely outranking them - if he were outranking them and it was a clear humiliation to have him march behind them then nobody would consider that - unless they want humiliate the Umbers. Which Robb has no intention of doing as far as we know.

The Greatjon rises to great prominence because he becomes Robb's greatest fan and yes-man, not because he has a right to demand such a high place of honor.

The fact that Umbers once were king gives them a prestige other houses do not have. But when you compare former kings to former kings then the Umbers are shabby kings compared to the Boltons. And the Karstarks don't have to be former kings to have a greater prestige - they are Stark through the male, the really important royal blood in the North.

Baseless claims. 

[Corvo the Crow]

@Free Northman Reborn

 

 It doesn’t mean anything for him to have preserved his own men if we don’t the starting numbers.

Roose’s host is formed of multiple “parts” If it was just Stark men and Dreadfort men than yes, most being Dreadfort men would mean “more than half” being Dreadfort men but it’s not. Bolton men being the most could very well mean they number, for example, 1500 while every other group has 50-100. Most is not always the majority or more than half. Mr. Martin could have just said more than half or majority to keep it clear but he didn’t use these words.

Say there’s a five candidate election with 900 votes, If I get 350 of them, second gets 250, and the other three gets 100, do I have the majority of the votes or most votes?

[Free Northman Reborn]

6 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

@Free Northman Reborn

 

 It doesn’t mean anything for him to have preserved his own men if we don’t the starting numbers.

Roose’s host is formed of multiple “parts” If it was just Stark men and Dreadfort men than yes, most being Dreadfort men would mean “more than half” being Dreadfort men but it’s not. Bolton men being the most could very well mean they number, for example, 1500 while every other group has 50-100. Most is not always the majority or more than half. Mr. Martin could have just said more than half or majority to keep it clear but he didn’t use these words.

Say there’s a five candidate election with 900 votes, If I get 350 of them, second gets 250, and the other three gets 100, do I have the majority of the votes or most votes?

I'm sorry, but that is just wrong.

Of the 3500, Roose says they are "Dreadfort men in chief".

And later, of the 4000 total returning Northmen, Theon says "most are Dreadfort men"

I just don't know how you can willfully misinterpret that. It is crystal clear.

[Corvo the Crow]

On 1/3/2019 at 7:46 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm sorry, but that is just wrong.

Of the 3500, Roose says they are "Dreadfort men in chief".

And later, of the 4000 total returning Northmen, Theon says "most are Dreadfort men"

I just don't know how you can willfully misinterpret that. It is crystal clear.

 

No, I’m not misinterpreting it, nor is it crystal clear.

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/most

First meaning; Greatest in quantity. It is not just Boltons and Karstarks, if it were so then yes, Boltons would be  over %50 but it’s not. 

 

Anyway, it is pointless for either of us to argue over this, not because neither of us would be able to convince the other over the numbers but because since this is just some fantasy and not the account of some real world events, there are no solid numbers at all, because GRRM didn’t give any even in his head. We just know

Karstarks had 300 cavalrymen and “near 2000” footmen and even this is very vague, with his vaguness “near 2000” may very well be slightly over 1500 and we have seen it elsewhere.

But my point is still valid, with the language used, there’s room to wiggle around, Bolton men do not need to be over 2000. They may be well above that, say over 3000 even but could be below it as well, perhaps as low as 1000 if Karstarks number just in the low hundreds and the rest is an assortment of many different men. 

With no solid numbers, he may, later on, say “after killing Ramsay and his army of 300 men, Stannis has captured Winterfell and put to the sword all the Dreadfort men stationed there, near 1000 in all” or he may say “Gallant clansmen under Stannis’ command have riddled the lake with holes, fifteen hundred Bolton men have drowned in those waters, a kinder fate perhaps, compared to the 5000 Dreadfort men in Winterfell he commanded to be burned as a sacrifice to his cruel god, Red Rahloo.”

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

On 1/3/2019 at 1:42 PM, PrinceoftheTides said:

mean in Clash of Kings we have (stannis' estimate, which is still not an objective data) 2000 men,

One thing, there are more “1 in 10”s than “1 in 4”s with knights. Even Tywin “goldshit” Lannister had 3000 foot and 500 knights dealing with Reyne-Tarbecks and “horse” doesn’t mean knight. Renly’s host for example had 20000 “horse” but just 10000 “lances”.

[Free Northman Reborn]

54 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No, I’m not misinterpreting it, nor is it crystal clear.

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/most

First meaning; Greatest in quantity. It is not just Boltons and Karstarks, if it were so then yes, Boltons would be  over %50 but it’s not. 

 

Anyway, it is pointless for either of us to argue over this, not because neither of us would be able to convince the other over the numbers but because since this is just some fantasy and not the account of some real world events, there are no solid numbers at all, because GRRM didn’t give any even in his head. We just know

Karstarks had 300 cavalrymen and “near 2000” footmen and even this is very vague, with his vaguness “near 2000” may very well be slightly over 1500 and we have seen it elsewhere.

But my point is still valid, with the language used, there’s room to wiggle around, Bolton men do not need to be over 2000. They may be well above that, say over 3000 even but could be below it as well, perhaps as low as 1000 if Karstarks number just in the low hundreds and the rest is an assortment of many different men. 

With no solid numbers, he may, later on, say “after killing Ramsay and his army of 300 men, Stannis has captured Winterfell and put to the sword all the Dreadfort men stationed there, near 1000 in all” or he may say “Gallant clansmen under Stannis’ command have riddled the lake with holes, fifteen hundred Bolton men have drowned in those waters, a kinder fate perhaps, compared to the 5000 Dreadfort men in Winterfell he commanded to be burned as a sacrifice to his cruel god, Red Rahloo.”

 

 

Sorry, I'd like to explore this further. I clicked on your link. And it says exactly what one would expect when it defines "most". Where exactly in that definition do you see so called "wriggle" room for "most" to mean anything other than "the majority"?

I don't think it says what you seem to think it says, because it doesn't support your point at all.

[direpupy]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No, I’m not misinterpreting it, nor is it crystal clear.

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/most

First meaning; Greatest in quantity. It is not just Boltons and Karstarks, if it were so then yes, Boltons would be  over %50 but it’s not. 

 

I agree with @Free Northman Reborn i think you are misinterpreting here, quantity usually does not apply to people and the second definition of the use of "most" is "The majority of" as example of its use is given "most people" now if you look up the meaning of majority its says "a number or percentage equaling more then half of the total" so i really do not see how you can get anything out of this other then that more then half of the troops are of house Bolton.

[Free Northman Reborn]

By the way. Roose used the term “Dreadfort men in chief”, when referring to the 3500 Northmen with him at the Twins. It was Theon who corroborated this from a second perspective, this time saying that “most of” the 4000 Northmen returning past Moat Cailin were Dreadfort men.

Two different terms, from two different points of view, confirming and corrobarating the same obvious fact Martin wishes to convey.

[Corvo the Crow]

3 hours ago, direpupy said:

I agree with @Free Northman Reborn i think you are misinterpreting here, quantity usually does not apply to people and the second definition of the use of "most" is "The majority of" as example of its use is given "most people" now if you look up the meaning of majority its says "a number or percentage equaling more then half of the total" so i really do not see how you can get anything out of this other then that more then half of the troops are of house Bolton.

And the fifth definition is the greatest amount and the example given is about people.

 

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

By the way. Roose used the term “Dreadfort men in chief”, when referring to the 3500 Northmen with him at the Twins. It was Theon who corroborated this from a second perspective, this time saying that “most of” the 4000 Northmen returning past Moat Cailin were Dreadfort men.

Two different terms, from two different points of view, confirming and corrobarating the same obvious fact Martin wishes to convey.

Sorry but no. You are just declaring Theon an unreliable narrator when he implies Ramsay to have fewer than 400 men(Rodrik didn’t even have 2000 as we all now), which Ramsay confirms to be the truth by the way, then accepting the broken down Theon, not even a shell of his former self, as a reliable one when he gives numbers closer to your liking and avoiding to answer this part; Is Theon a reliable narrator or not? Is he a reliable narrator only after he loses his sanity or is he a reliable narrator only when it’s to your liking.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

And the fifth definition is the greatest amount and the example given is about people.

 

Sorry but no. You are just declaring Theon an unreliable narrator when he implies Ramsay to have fewer than 400 men(Rodrik didn’t even have 2000 as we all now), which Ramsay confirms to be the truth by the way, then accepting the broken down Theon, not even a shell of his former self, as a reliable one when he gives numbers closer to your liking and avoiding to answer this part; Is Theon a reliable narrator or not? Is he a reliable narrator only after he loses his sanity or is he a reliable narrator only when it’s to your liking.

 

Simple question: Why would Martin mislead us over something so insignificant to the plot? What possible motive could he have? What possible reason is there to doubt Theon in this case? If Roose came along and said: "Actually no, I only had 1900 Dreadfort men returning up the Neck", then sure, I would rather go with his more authoritative statement. Same if Lady Dustin or Wyman Manderly said so.

But we have a grand total of ZERO dissenting views on this. And it happens to fit perfectly with what Roose already told us at the Twins. Why on earth even question it for a moment?

[Corvo the Crow]

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Simple question: Why would Martin mislead us over something so insignificant to the plot? What possible motive could he have? What possible reason is there to doubt Theon in this case? If Roose came along and said: "Actually no, I only had 1900 Dreadfort men returning up the Neck", then sure, I would rather go with his more authoritative statement. Same if Lady Dustin or Wyman Manderly said so.

But we have a grand total of ZERO dissenting views on this. And it happens to fit perfectly with what Roose already told us at the Twins. Why on earth even question it for a moment?

To not tie his hands for the future in case he’d need to change the ever changing numbers again.

 

And why question it?  The thread of the title is Military strengths and first post is all about giving numbers to regions and houses that’s why.

And you are still avoiding the Theon question. When is he reliable and when is he not?

[Free Northman Reborn]

15 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

To not tie his hands for the future in case he’d need to change the ever changing numbers again.

 

And why question it?  The thread of the title is Military strengths and first post is all about giving numbers to regions and houses that’s why.

And you are still avoiding the Theon question. When is he reliable and when is he not?

Lol. You really seem to think the Theon issue is somehow your ace in the hole. If I'm "avoiding" it it's because it is a waste of time discussing it.

At Winterfell he sees a chaotic battle in the streets between the houses of Wintertown. He knows Rodrick has 2000 men, but he has to estimate the fast moving Bolton troops in between the houses. He also knows Ramsay promised him only a couple of hundred. So because it is impossible to count them in the chaos, he UNDERESTIMATES their number, no doubt influenced by Ramsay's original promise of far fewer than the 600 that ended up arriving.

By contrast, at Moat Cailin he sees an orderly line marching up the road. He provides rather specific numbers for the Freys, including the number of cavalry that flanks the infantry. He also gives us rather good descriptions of the nature of the Frey troops.

When he looks at the Northmen there, he has time to reminisce about the great 20k strong host that marched South under Robb, and compares that to the barely 4000 that are returning. And then he doesn't try and estimate the Dreadfort numbers precisely. He simply states that they make up "most of" the returning 4000 Northmen. Most likely they make up such a significant majority that this is an easy statement to make. Without needing to count them to any degree of accuracy to form that clear impression.

And most importantly. IT TIES IN WITH WHAT ROOSE SAID. That the 3500 Northmen with him at the Twins consisted chiefly of Dreadfort men.

I'm sorry, the only reason to try and dispute the above is if it doesn't fit with a preconceived theory of yours.  And in that case, I'm afraid your preconceived theory is wrong, and is clouding your judgment on the matter.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lol. You really seem to think the Theon issue is somehow your ace in the hole. If I'm "avoiding" it it's because it is a waste of time discussing it.

Lol? And the rest of it is not a waste of time?

 

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

contrast, at Moat Cailin he sees an orderly line marching up the road. He provides rather specific numbers for the Freys, including the number of cavalry that flanks the infantry. He also gives us rather good descriptions of the nature of the Frey troops.

Wow really? I hoped that I could avoid pulling the same quote over and over again but here you go

Quote

"Open the gates for our friends." Perhaps tonight Theon would sleep without fear of what his dreams might bring.

The Dreadfort men made their way across the moat and through the inner gates. Theon descended with Black Lorren and Maester Luwin to meet them in the yard. Pale red pennons trailed from the ends of a few lances, but many more carried battle-axes and greatswords and shields hacked half to splinters. "How many men did you lose?" Theon asked Red Helm as he dismounted.

"Twenty or thirty." The torchlight glittered off the chipped enamel of his visor. His helm and gorget were wrought in the shape of a man's face and shoulders, skinless and bloody, mouth open in a silent howl of anguish.

Pleade do remind me the meaning of chaotic, does it mean moving in a line through a gate?  It was as chaotic as it could get then. Also I don’t think it needs to be reminded but counting a few hundred in a line is easier than doing the same for a few thousand, right?

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Lol? And the rest of it is not a waste of time?

 

Wow really? I hoped that I could avoid pulling the same quote over and over again but here you go

Pleade do remind me the meaning of chaotic, does it mean moving in a line through a gate?  It was as chaotic as it could get then. Also I don’t think it needs to be reminded but counting a few hundred in a line is easier than doing the same for a few thousand, right?

You seem to be missing the critical issue, which is that Ramsay contradicted Theon’s estimate with a more informed number at Winterfell. Who is in a better position to know the exact number between the two of them? 

At Moat Cailin, no one contradicted him. In fact, his estimate aligns with Roose’s earlier statement. For what possible reason should we then doubt it?

Besides, if you really care so much about consistency, Theon’s error was to underestimate the size of Ramsay’s force at Winterfell. So why are you not insisiting that he underestimated the size of Roose Bolton’s numbers too?

Anyway, I think you are clearly wrong on this. Neutral readers will have to make up their own mind.