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three-eyed monkey

Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Nevets said:

About all the Boltons can do at this point is play their (bad) hand as best they can, and hope it works. 

We agree on this at least. The difference is I don't think they are playing their hand as best they can by writing the pink letter.

It is interesting to consider how Roose would react to the news that Reek and Jeyne have escaped. The obvious reaction is to go straight out after them, as the Freys did. That excursion was cut short by the pits and the force outside the walls would certainly be in possession of the escapees by then. We agree that Roose would definitely want her back as a matter of urgency.

The death of Aenys Frey would not have done anything to soothe the temper of Hosteen. I think he'd want to go straight back out there and find the pit-diggers. They knew the enemy were outside the walls and were planning to march on Stannis anyway, so nothing would have changed in that respect. They must have had plans to clear the horn blowers first. It is the very reason Crowfood had his boys dig the pits and then blow their horns, to lure Lord Bolton out.

Stannis camp is the nearest refuge for Jeyne and Reek, and it makes sense that the force outside Winterfell is aligned with Stannis. This would be confirmed if Crowfood was taken, as Roose knows Crowfood had thrown in with Stannis. West is Ryswell country, South the Barrowlands, East is Bolton land, while Castle Black is over 600 miles away. So where else would they go?

The best thing they can do is get after Jeyne and Reek as quickly as they can. Clear the force outside the walls and march on Stannis as soon as possible, as was the plan before the escape. I think Roose's plan is to send the Freys and Manderlys to take the brunt of the casualties then and follow up with his own men. We've seen him do something similar in Duskendale. And Jeyne is too important to leave to chance. Roose has 4000 men as well as smaller Umber, Ryswell, and Dustin hosts and a handful of minor houses as well. Ramsay will want Reek back. It makes sense to me that he would lead a larger Bolton force than the Frey's 1400, which would balance the numbers against Stannis' army, which is reported to be 5000 strong, especially when the 300 Manderlys are of questionable loyalty. I think Theon is right, Ramsay won't be far behind the Freys.

We know there is going to be a battle of ice, and we know Stannis will fight that battle at the village where he holds the ground. So I think it is safe to assume that the Bolton forces will manage to get past Crowfood and his traps. The question is how far behind Jeyne will they be? Will Crowfood and his boys delay them a day? More? Is it really that easy for a small force to keep a much larger army penned up in a castle? An army that knows they are there and planned on marching past them or over them one way or another even before the escape.

We know that Jeyne was still in Stannis camp during Theon I. Stannis told Massey he wanted them gone by midday. Stannis also knew that the enemy could be on him at any time. Theon told him they would be coming and knew, having seen Crowfood's force first hand, that Hosteen would not be held for long. So I feel the Freys are no more than a day behind Jeyne and Reek, with Ramsay less than a day behind the Freys.

Edit: my point is that if Stannis is defeated Jeyne's lead would not be sufficient enough to warrant not trying to catch her over the 600 mile course of her journey. It has to be a better option than the pink letter.

If Stannis wins then it is hard to see how Ramsay would return to Winterfell thinking he had won.

And if Roose is misinformed about the result of the battle by raven, then we have to assume that Ramsay stayed in Winterfell with him and did not command the Bolton troops that went to the village to retrieve Reek and his bride. But even if this is the case they would expect their victorious army to continue the hunt as she would still be weeks from Castle Black, with no guarantee of ever getting there. I fail to see how sending a raven to Castle Black ahead of her would qualify as playing a bad hand as well as they can. Why write to Jon informing him that his rescue attempt was successful when they could send a raven to Bowen Marsh demanding that Jon be arrested for his crimes, of which they have proof, and confined to a cell without visitors until the Lord of Winterfell comes for his head?

 

Edited by three-eyed monkey

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12 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

It might not be easy, but the importance of Arya and her fake identity remaining intact is such that they would have to try, and not just leave it to a letter that asks the man who stole her, an enemy of theirs, to give her back and then forget about the fact it isn't really Arya.

I don't know where you get the 'not just leave it to a letter' part from.

Your logic seems to be that hunting Arya and sending a letter to Jon are mutually exclusive. Which they of course aren't. I am sure they tried to hunt the escapees. But failed. And I pointed out all the practical reasons why that is. Ramsay did not have the luxury of a choice. Because he did not manage to recapture her.

In addition to those practicalities here is another thing: The letter was sent after the 'seven days of battle'. So at that point Jeyne and Theon were not yet recaptured. It seems that after that battle did Ramsay and Roose realize their prize was not after all with Stannis army as they had hoped. That is quite some head-start for Jeyne and Theon! 7 days of battle + 3 days to reach Stannis' camp so 10 days total. No wonder that Ramsay realizes his hunt is not going to hack it anymore.

So at that point put a second string to your bow and demand her back from Jon. Why not? It's brilliant. I already thoroughly pointed out the reasons why and don't want to repeat myself. (It also worked like a charm for Ramsay.)

12 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

No. I'm saying any argument that states it doesn't matter to Ramsay that Jon would know Arya is fake ignores the political reality. I don't see how pointing that out is a cheap shot or unwarranted?

 

We can both be content then :)I never assumed that it doesn't matter to Ramsay that Jon would know Arya is fake. Nor is such an assumption necessary for the Ramsay theory. We 'Ramsay'ers neither ignore the Jeyne ID ramifications nor the political reality. So all is good :)

12 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

 He is someone who would see Arya is a fake. Writing to him and hoping he sends her back without saying anything is naive, at best.

Now I am starting to ask myself: did you read my post far upthread in which I explained  why the letter works to Ramsay's advantage regardless of whether Jon complies with it or doesn't comply with it? The letter creates a win-win situation for Ramsay. It is not naive at all.

I also explained that Ramsay has no real choice in the matter. Of course he would have preferred to quietly recapture Jeyne!

But he didn't! They got away with a 10 day headstart. Now he has to live with that situation and do something else! And that something else - the letter - is brilliant: It puts Jon in a bad spot no matter what Jon does.  And in the end it works even better than expected.

13 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

He's not going to go back to Winterfell and say ~ I can't find her, I'll just write to the guy who stole her and ask for her back. It doesn't matter that he has made a common cause with Stannis against us. It doesn't matter that he will know she is not Arya Stark and that the wedding is a lie. It doesn't matter that she will not want to come back and will tell everyone who she really is in order to prevent that.

 

You are right in that Ramsay doesn't have to sit in Winterfell and say 'It doesn't matter that he has made a common cause with Stannis against us. It doesn't matter that he will know she is not Arya Stark and that the wedding is a lie. It doesn't matter that she will not want to come back and will tell everyone who she really is in order to prevent that.'

That's you speaking, not him.

However as to the 'I can't find her, I'll just write to the guy' part: Yeah. That's exactly what happens.

We know it is because we know that 1) Jeyne and Theon escaped clear. 2) Ramsay didn't manage to win them back, Not even with a 7-day battle. (And we also know why: it is because they are not even with Stannis' army anymore. And 3) the letter got written and sent. We have it black and white in Jon's last chapter. With signature and all.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I fail to see how sending a raven to Castle Black ahead of her would qualify as playing a bad hand as well as they can. Why write to Jon informing him that his rescue attempt was successful when they could send a raven to Bowen Marsh demanding that Jon be arrested for his crimes, of which they have proof, and confined to a cell without visitors until the Lord of Winterfell comes for his head?

:agree: I think this is the key argument here.

@Nevets makes a feasible point that Ramsay is not thinking it through, but I personally am not convinced. When CB is 600 miles away, why would even a muddled-with-rage, incoherent or perhaps panicked Ramsay (maybe Roose is dead) send a raven that lets his enemies get to fArya before his riders (with multiple spare horses) can ride the trails to Deepwood Motte or CB besides other Bolton outposts to in turn send more riders from there ? I agree the terrain is enormous and the weather conditions horrible, and there is also a small chance Jeyne's party heads into the mountains to hide with the clans, but why inform Jon you have lost her? The clans can't send ravens to other northern lords they have her.  They have to get her to CB direct or by way of the Shadow Tower, and in that weather, traveling through the mountains could take months, so effectively Ramsay sends riders to DM, ST, CB and watches the key approaches and other key crossing points to those places. There is plenty of time when the destinations on the wall are 600 miles away and Jeyne in her current condition is not going to be a good rider. The only destination they could feasibly be beaten to is Deepwood. Again why tell Jon, deal with Sybelle Glover. 

1 hour ago, Amris said:

That is quite some head-start for Jeyne and Theon! 7 days of battle + 3 days to reach Stannis' camp so 10 days total. No wonder that Ramsay realizes his hunt is not going to hack it anymore.

(If I might jump in on this, since we are both currently active, we could have refined the arguments before 3EM comes back from a well deserved break.)

Only if they are travelling through the Wolfswood to Deepwood. It's not enough of a headstart for destinations in the wall.

Also you are taking 7 days of battle as a fact. It's not, but fine let's consider that scenario. So now if Stannis has actually been defeated, Ramsay is in a strong position. The immediate threat has been seen off. Northerners who dared openly oppose the Boltons are dead or defeated. Ok, T&J got away. If they went to Deepwood, threaten Lady Glover, get them back, there is no Stannis to help. They went to the wall? Send plenty of riders, send a letter, if you really want, informing Jon, Stannis' ally, of your famous victory and ask for the other hostages, but why tell him his sister has escaped and give him the chance to pick her up and ship her to Bravos or White Harbor, Skargos or Dragonstone?

OTOH, let's say Stannis was not defeated after 7 days of battle and Ramsay ran back with his tail between his legs to WF. He doesn't have enough riders to spare perhaps, but he also doesn't know T&J are not with Stannis. He sends fake news to Jon to panic the Stannis camp there, fine, got that. Why tell Jon his sister has escaped? Jon could quietly ride down and pick her up and Ramsay is no better off. What were the chances Jon breaks his vows and gets disgraced in the eyes of the North which I think was part of your win-win argument? Those are very, very low odds.

To summarize, if the PL had everything else except the part about Jeyne on the loose, it would have made a case for it to be from Ramsay.

The fact it says Jeyne has escaped (and implies it's with Theon's help, though it might become clear to Jon that it was Theon only after coming down to WF and finding out that Reek was the name for Theon) strengthens the case that the author wants to convey that information in particular.

Stannis, Mance, Asha.

 

1 hour ago, Amris said:

With signature and all.

Successfully forged? Tybald is the Dreadfort master, he would know the spiky scrawl. Some the Maesters at WF have handled Ramsay's outgoing correspondence as well, they have seen his handwriting and signature.

Edited by Ser Hedge

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1 hour ago, Amris said:

The letter was sent after the 'seven days of battle'. So at that point Jeyne and Theon were not yet recaptured. It seems that after that battle did Ramsay and Roose realize their prize was not after all with Stannis army as they had hoped. That is quite some head-start for Jeyne and Theon! 7 days of battle + 3 days to reach Stannis' camp so 10 days total. No wonder that Ramsay realizes his hunt is not going to hack it anymore.

Jeyne's lead will be determined by how long Crowfood holds they Freys at Winterfell and how long the battle lasts at the village. To suggest she would have a ten day lead is a bit much. I don't think that seven days of battle is very unlikely to be true given the circumstances.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

So at that point put a second string to your bow and demand her back from Jon. Why not? It's brilliant.

No it's not because...

2 hours ago, Amris said:

We 'Ramsay'ers neither ignore the Jeyne ID ramifications nor the political reality.

You actually do. Ramsay would never write to Jon to ask for Jeyne back, because he is supposed to be married to Arya Stark.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

You are right in that Ramsay doesn't have to sit in Winterfell and say 'It doesn't matter that he has made a common cause with Stannis against us. It doesn't matter that he will know she is not Arya Stark and that the wedding is a lie. It doesn't matter that she will not want to come back and will tell everyone who she really is in order to prevent that.'

That's you speaking, not him.

No, that's me saying that the story is telling us. You are objecting by saying you are not ignoring the political ramifications but they just don't really matter.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

However as to the 'I can't find her, I'll just write to the guy' part: Yeah. That's exactly what happens. 

I doubt it.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

We know it is because we know that 1) Jeyne and Theon escaped clear.

They were both in Stannis camp with the Freys in pursuit. Jeyne was being sent to the Wall. Theon remained with Stannis.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

2) Ramsay didn't manage to win them back, Not even with a 7-day battle. (And we also know why: it is because they are not even with Stannis' army anymore.

Theon is still with Stannis. Ramsay not winning them back does not prove he wrote the letter.

2 hours ago, Amris said:

And 3) the letter got written and sent. We have it black and white in Jon's last chapter. With signature and all.

No one is disputing this, we are debating who wrote and signed it. You are falling back on this logical fallacy again because the rest of your argument is so poor.

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

To summarize, if the PL had everything else except the part about Jeyne on the loose, it would have made a case for it to be from Ramsay.

This is it exactly. If the Boltons thought a letter was the way to go then that letter would not be the pink letter because informing Jon that his plot to steal Ramsay's bride had worked and she was free is absolutely unnessicary, especially given the importance of her fake identity remaining intact, something that clearly will not survive meeting Jon.

 

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28 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:
3 hours ago, Amris said:

We know it is because we know that 1) Jeyne and Theon escaped clear.

They were both in Stannis camp with the Freys in pursuit. Jeyne was being sent to the Wall. Theon remained with Stannis.

Eureka!

:bowdown:

Good thing I wasn't in the bathtub, though the emoticon above looks like it might have been.

@Amris If you assume, Ramsay wrote the letter,

Then if he had won the battle of the ice, he (or his agents who sent news of victory by raven) would 99% have recovered Theon and Ramsay wouldn't be asking for Reek in the PL.

So, if you still believe Ramsay wrote the PL, then he has 99% not won the battle of ice and the seven days of battle is fake news.

By the construction of your scenario, '7 days' is not admissable as evidence ;)

 

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1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

So, if you still believe Ramsay wrote the PL, then he has 99% not won the battle of ice and the seven days of battle is fake news.

If Stannis wins the battle he will send a raven to Winterfell saying he lost. If this raven is what misinforms Ramsay then Ramsay must have stayed in Winterfell and not went to the battle as Theon expected. I think the reasons to believe Theon is right far outweigh the reasons to think Theon is wrong. If Ramsay went to the battle and lost, even if he escaped alive and made it back to Winterfell, he would not think they had won the battle.

If Ramsay does win the battle, it lasting seven days is highly unlikely. We have seen and heard about plenty of field battles in Westeros and while we have heard of three battles in one day, we have never heard of a seven day battle. The most likely scenario that would result in a seven day battle is if the battle was an assault on a castle or city, which might well last several days. I think this is the simple scenario the letter is trying to convey to Jon: Stannis marched to Winterfell and battered the walls for seven days before he was defeated.

The truth is the battle will be fought at the crofters village and like most battles of its type it will be done in a day, especially as Stannis army is starving, freezing, and afoot, and the frozen lakes are almost certain to tip the scales in a swift and decisive manner and not one that unfolds over days.

Personally I think seven days of battle is put in by Stannis to account for the time between Jeyne's escape and the sending of the letter, signifying that she is well clear of Ramsay. I think the seven days consist of a three day Bolton march to the crofters' village, a day of battle, and three days back to Winterfell for Stannis.

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16 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

As far as Roose and Ramsay (and Mance and the spear wives), there are only a few hundred Wildlings of fighting quality south of the wall - those that surrendered to Stannis. No one outside CB and neighbouring NW forts  knows that Tormund and 3000 more (incl women and children) Wildlings crossed the wall recently.

The mountain Clans do know that they could have let neighbouring castles know also

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Impbread said:

The mountain Clans do know that they could have let neighbouring castles know also

They do know indeed, and their kin is marching with Stannis, so they are not like to let any Bolton allies know, whatever their personal views about Wildlings. I think the text states they can't be reached by raven in their mountain strongholds (which means they don't have ravens to send out either - no Maesters, outside of the North there is little awareness about the clans, hence Stannis had no clue and Jon had to point them out to him, they were not on Stannis' map) and the outgoing ravens from CB are controlled by the NW. The nearest castle is the last hearth, and it is not clear if whoever is in charge is allied to Hother (Bolton) or Crowfood (Stannis). Let's assume there's a GNC angle (and Hother himself is about to turn his cloak on the Boltons, and this is quite a bit of an assumption, how would the clans know about GNC being plotted by ravens) and they are happy to send pro-Stannis messages. Whom are you going to send it to?  Ok, another GNC house, fine. How are they going to let actors present in WF know about the new secret army (that GNC conspirators might themselves have misgivings about) ? A rider, raven messages can fall into the hands of the Boltons. And this rider had to have reached WF before the PL was sent I.e within days of Tormund arriving. 

It's just not possible.

Edited by Ser Hedge

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48 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

They do know indeed, and their kin is marching with Stannis, so they are not like to let any Bolton allies know, whatever their personal views about Wildlings. I think the text states they can't be reached by raven in their mountain strongholds (which means they don't have ravens to send out either - no Maesters, outside of the North there is little awareness about the clans, hence Stannis had no clue and Jon had to point them out to him, they were not on Stannis' map) and the outgoing ravens from CB are controlled by the NW. The nearest castle is the last hearth, and it is not clear if whoever is in charge is allied to Hother (Bolton) or Crowfood (Stannis). Let's assume there's a GNC angle (and Hother himself is about to turn his cloak on the Boltons, and this is quite a bit of an assumption, how would the clans know about GNC being plotted by ravens) and they are happy to send pro-Stannis messages. Whom are you going to send it to?  Ok, another GNC house, fine. How are they going to let actors present in WF know about the new secret army (that GNC conspirators might themselves have misgivings about) ? A rider, raven messages can fall into the hands of the Boltons. And this rider had to have reached WF before the PL was sent I.e within days of Tormund arriving. 

It's just not possible.

Good point.

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8 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

If Stannis wins the battle he will send a raven to Winterfell saying he lost. If this raven is what misinforms Ramsay then Ramsay must have stayed in Winterfell and not went to the battle as Theon expected. I think the reasons to believe Theon is right far outweigh the reasons to think Theon is wrong. If Ramsay went to the battle and lost, even if he escaped alive and made it back to Winterfell, he would not think they had won the battle.

Sure he could.  If he is on a large, chaotic, snowy battlefield, and the Karstarks bring him Stannis's sword and possibly what looks like his head, he could easily believe that he won.  Especially since Stannis has given clear indications that he may fake his death.

Stannis's army was planning to go from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell, 300 miles, in 15 days.  that is 20 miles per day.  Armies move slowly.  A small party on horseback should be able to go quite a bit faster, even in poor conditions.  Even if we allow for 30 miles a day, a week's head start puts them 1/3 of the way to Winterfell.  No way in hell is Ramsay going to catch up, especially if they are trying to not be found.  A small party in a large landscape isn't going to be easy to locate.

Another question is whether Ramsay is keeping Jeyne's departure a secret from his own side.  There are good reasons to keep it a general secret, and I can imagine Ramsay being prideful enough to keep it from Roose as well.  Or at least try to.  If so, he is going to have a difficult time sending an army after her.

12 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Why tell Jon his sister has escaped? Jon could quietly ride down and pick her up and Ramsay is no better off.

His sister has in fact not escaped.  And Jon may well be displeased when he finds out that it isn't his sister.  Ramsay may assume that, since it isn't really his sister, that he will lose interest, or may even be angry with her for the imposture, in which case, he can get her back with little fuss.  It is worth knowing that, unlike us, Ramsay knows little to nothing about Jon Snow, except that he is LC of the Nights Watch, and the brother of Arya and bastard son of Eddard Stark.  I doubt he knows much more than that.

By the way, telling Jon that his sister is loose is hardly a suggestion that she is safe and Jon is free to go to Winterfell.  If anything it makes him more likely to stay and look for her.  Loose in the North and hunted by a maniac is hardly "safe". 

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14 hours ago, Nevets said:

Sure he could.  If he is on a large, chaotic, snowy battlefield, and the Karstarks bring him Stannis's sword and possibly what looks like his head, he could easily believe that he won. 

I don't buy this at all. If he's there, and think he will be, then he will know if they won or not. I don't think the battlefield will be so big that he won't be able to see what's happening. Stannis has 5000. Freys 1400. Manderlys 300, if they get there. Plus whatever portion of Bolton strength Roose sends to balance the numbers, possibly under Ramsay's command or maybe Walton. And we know Stannis plans to hold the ground, which would be between the lakes where the village is. If you have 5000 defending a small village from 5000 attackers then I don't see a huge amount of room for confusion about the result. Personally, I think Ramsay would want to walk through the enemy camp to look for Reek and Jeyne or question prisoners when the battle was done.

15 hours ago, Nevets said:

Especially since Stannis has given clear indications that he may fake his death. 

We almost certainly know he will, the question is will it be by raven or a battlefield ruse as you suggest? In my opinion raven is more plausible.

15 hours ago, Nevets said:

Stannis's army was planning to go from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell, 300 miles, in 15 days.  that is 20 miles per day.  Armies move slowly.  A small party on horseback should be able to go quite a bit faster, even in poor conditions.  Even if we allow for 30 miles a day, a week's head start puts them 1/3 of the way to Winterfell.  No way in hell is Ramsay going to catch up, especially if they are trying to not be found.  A small party in a large landscape isn't going to be easy to locate.

Firstly, the notion of Jeyne having a week's head start is very questionable. She was only preparing to leave the village in Theon I. Stannis was expecting the enemy to be on them soon. Crowfood and his pits would not delay them for long. The idea that there was seven days of battle between armies of that size in those conditions is not very plausible. Jeyne would have a day or two at best.

A small party would not be easy to locate, true. But they know, or at least think, they are going to Castle Black. It's not like they have to search the whole north.

Yes, a small party on horseback would travel faster than an army. We saw Tycho reach Winterfell via Deepwood ahead of Stannis. Crowfood got there ahead of Stannis. Karstarks caught up to Stannis. Bolton outriders have been reporting back to Roose since Stannis march started to slow, which was pretty early. It is Stannis baggage train and foot that slowed him down. 20 miles a day is marching pace. If he was chasing someone from Deepwood to Winterfell, he would have sent horsemen who would have traveled at a much faster pace.

If Jeyne had a two day lead and say sixteen days to go, then her lead would be one ninth of the total distance. I don't think that's beyond catching. I'm using eighteen days because that's how long it took Benjen, Tyrion, and Jon in AGoT. They went by the kingsroad, which would be faster travelling, and they had good weather. Jeyne would obviously have a greater sense of urgency.

If we want to go real world then we know that Pony Express riders rode a hundred miles a day, but that was with a change of horse. Roman mounted infantry had a typical range of 60 miles a day. Winterfell and Castle Black are approximately a little over 600 miles apart, measured by map and compared to text we know like the distance from Deep Wood to Winterfell and the length of the Wall. But GRRM is not great with distances and speeds, he's more about the story. The question is should we expect them to be hunted over a relatively long journey? I think we should.

16 hours ago, Nevets said:

Another question is whether Ramsay is keeping Jeyne's departure a secret from his own side.  There are good reasons to keep it a general secret, and I can imagine Ramsay being prideful enough to keep it from Roose as well.  Or at least try to.  If so, he is going to have a difficult time sending an army after her.

I'd like to hear what people think of this. I have wondered how the Boltons might react to the escape. Could Ramsay keep it from Roose, given that Ramsay's men are really Rooses's men? Or could the Boltons keep it from the northmen, given how the alarm was raised and the Freys sped out? I'm not convinced they could.

But Roose was sending an army after Stannis before the alarm was raised, and Stannis is the obvious place to run to for immediate refuge. And Roose has 4000 men in his own host, most of which are Dreadfort men. He could send 2000 men with the Freys if he wanted.

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1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I'd like to hear what people think of this. I have wondered how the Boltons might react to the escape. Could Ramsay keep it from Roose, given that Ramsay's men are really Rooses's men? Or could the Boltons keep it from the northmen, given how the alarm was raised and the Freys sped out? I'm not convinced they could.

@Nevets has raised a very interesting point: It's not in House Bolton's interests to have the North know that their Stark bride is fled.

The immediate alarm raised on the castle walls can be attributed to Stannis' washerwomen spies escaping to provide him with information. Perhaps it will soon be noticed more widely that Theon is missing as well, but no one apart from Ramsay's men has seen fArya in days, so her disappearance can feasibly be kept hidden for some time.

On the point why it would make sense for Ramsay to disclose this information to Jon then: I can see why in this scenario there may not be enough riders to spare to send to multiple destinations/ key crossing points, but why increase the chances Jeyne can be picked up by search parties sent down from the wall? If I understood @Nevets, R wants Jon to do the searching for him.

I do get that Ramsay does not know that Jon is honourable, so the argument seems to be that Jon would return Jeyne and Theon to WF to avoid conflict with the Boltons. But while we're at it, demand a whole lot of other people as well, why not :dunno:? The torture of Mance and/or the SWs must have been really comprehensive to have knowledge of Val and 'Mance jr', which seems to show Ramsay spent his time on interrogation and could not feasibly have been at the battle of ice, which spoils the foreshadowing by Theon, but fine, it's a plausible enough scenario.

It's certainly a better version than other Ramsay theory interpretations: "furious with rage, not thinking straight" or "not politically savvy".

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23 hours ago, Nevets said:

Stannis's army was planning to go from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell, 300 miles, in 15 days.  that is 20 miles per day. 

That may have been the plan.

Except it didn't work out. On the fifteenth day Stannis group had covered less than half the distance than expected due to a snow storm.

A Dance with Dragons - The King's Prize     One hundred leagues from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell. Three hundred miles as the raven flies. Fifteen days. The fifteenth day of the march came and went, and they had crossed less than half the distance. <snip>  It was the twentieth day of the advance when she finally won free of her ankle chains./

In Asha's next chapter she says they had been three days from WF for19 days. An inconvenient snow storm has been bothering WF, Stannis and CB.

A Dance with Dragons - The Sacrifice     They had been three days from Winterfell for nineteen days. One hundred leagues from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell. Three hundred miles as the raven flies. But none of them were ravens, and the storm was unrelenting. Each morning Asha awoke hoping she might see the sun, only to face another day of snow. The storm had buried every hut and hovel beneath a mound of dirty snow, and the drifts would soon be deep enough to engulf the longhall too./

I'm guessing that the pink/bastard letter's seven days of battle is gobbledygook. Because it is still snowing and no one is moving quickly no where.

Beside that, Umber already had Theon and Jeyen in his mitts when the Frey's rode from WF and fell into the Umber trap.

Do you think there is a rather large bit of story that is missing?

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7 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I'd like to hear what people think of this. I have wondered how the Boltons might react to the escape.

That is part of the ambiguity. Theon and Jeyne hear an alarm. They jump. They are in Umber's control. Yet, Umber smiled when his runner gave word the portcullis was rising.

I wonder do the Frey's retreat back into WF. Does Roose shut WF down. That seven days of battle stuff is a problem for me.

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6 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

On the point why it would make sense for Ramsay to disclose this information to Jon then: I can see why in this scenario there may not be enough riders to spare to send to multiple destinations/ key crossing points, but why increase the chances Jeyne can be picked up by search parties sent down from the wall? If I understood @Nevets, R wants Jon to do the searching for him.

He probably expect Jeyne to show up at the Wall.  He could very well know about the escort and figure it's easier to have Jon hold on to her, and then go pick her up.  I expect he was planning a ride to Castle Black after Stannis's (apparent) defeat.  I expect that the fact that Stannis wasn't actually defeated will delay the trip, probably indefinitely.

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

That is part of the ambiguity. Theon and Jeyne hear an alarm. They jump. They are in Umber's control. Yet, Umber smiled when his runner gave word the portcullis was rising.

I wonder do the Frey's retreat back into WF. Does Roose shut WF down. That seven days of battle stuff is a problem for me.

I think at the very least they will have to worry that there are other traps lying around waiting to be triggered.  If so, it will take time to ensure their safety.  I would think 2-3 days, at least, and possibly longer.  I would expect that by the time Ramsay figures out that FArya isn't in Stannis's camp any longer, she could have a decent head start.  And I don't think he has any way to communicate with any of his men already scattered through the North (like those looking for Bran and Rickon).

8 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I don't buy this at all. If he's there, and think he will be, then he will know if they won or not. I don't think the battlefield will be so big that he won't be able to see what's happening.

If it's snowing heavily, visibility could be a serious problem, and getting an accurate picture of what's happening could be difficult.  I do agree, that it's more likely that the ruse would be done at a distance.  In any event, I do believe that, one way or another, Ramsay has been fooled into thinking he has won.

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17 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Do you think there is a rather large bit of story that is missing?

Yes, and it has led to a lot of confusion. The battle of ice was Asha's next chapter and would have taken place around the time of Alys Karstarks wedding to the Thenn. This chapter as well as Theon I TWoW were meant to be part of ADwD. We know that much for sure because GRRM said the battles of ice and fire were intended to be part of ADwD except the manuscript grew too big, beyond the publishable limit, so chapters had to be bumped. He also said that some events at the beginning of TWoW will take place before some of the events at the end of ADwD, which suggests the battle of ice took place before Jon XIII, as it would have in the original chapter order.

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20 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I'm guessing that the pink/bastard letter's seven days of battle is gobbledygook. 

:agree:Fully agree. In that cold, most of the participants will likely freeze to death if they sleep without basic shelter. And you do not agree a truce at the end of every day's fighting to go and pitch tents. Well you can try, but it's not like the armies are led by Barristan Selmy and Arthur Dayne respectively - somebody will launch a night attack on the other.

20 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Yet, Umber smiled when his runner gave word the portcullis was rising.

I'm guessing the trap was a pretty comprehensive one that was going to account for a significant number of riders in the vanguard, say 15-20, and once they had fallen in, there was no way to ride around it, so it would take the rest of the party several hours to build improvised bridges to get across?

When Theon is brought before Stannis, he is able to provide details about Aenys Frey and Hosteen's horse, so Umber, Theon & co had time to observe the exact damage before Theon, Bravosi bankster & co. make their getaway, but Theon still expects both Freys and Manderleys to get to CV eventually, so any second set of traps beyond the first one cannot stop them for too long.

Did I understand the question correctly? There is always that chance I didn't and have only proceeded to state the obvious :laugh:

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Yes, and it has led to a lot of confusion. The battle of ice was Asha's next chapter and would have taken place around the time of Alys Karstarks wedding to the Thenn. This chapter as well as Theon I TWoW were meant to be part of ADwD. We know that much for sure because GRRM said the battles of ice and fire were intended to be part of ADwD except the manuscript grew too big, beyond the publishable limit, so chapters had to be bumped. He also said that some events at the beginning of TWoW will take place before some of the events at the end of ADwD, which suggests the battle of ice took place before Jon XIII, as it would have in the original chapter order.

Again I must say, "Thank You, Ser monkey of the three eye." :)

6 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Did I understand the question correctly? There is always that chance I didn't and have only proceeded to state the obvious :laugh:

Don't sell yourself short. From my pov you dunna have a comprehension problem. :)

Stating or restating the obvious can be a useful communication technique.

Training oneself to listen even when one isn't particularly interested is also useful.

I have on occasion zoned out and misread or misheard something.  During those times I hear Charlie Brown's teacher, "Wah Wa Wa Wah Wa Wa." Then later when someone points out the obvious I pause and rethink.

Since Anderson Cooper's interview with martin I am doing a bit rethinking.  I am verra :unsure: about some of my opinions now.

Edit: corrected a couple of spelling faux pas --- then it took a few a few minutes to google pho paw. Still can't decide if there is a plural form. of faux pas. :bawl:

 

Edited by Clegane'sPup

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