Jump to content

Ser Hedge

Members
  • Content count

    68
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Ser Hedge

  • Rank
    Freerider

Recent Profile Visitors

129 profile views
  1. Hmmmm, would he? I know the Boltons are known for flaying their enemies, and there are rumours of vaults in the Dreadfort with a vast collection, but have they ever put a skin on display (ugh, the very thought of it...)? Actually, hold on, now I'm thinking back to what they did with the Ironborn after taking MC. Did they put the flayed bodies up? Maybe you have a point - I was about to say putting a head on a spike is standard practice to show everyone exactly whom you have disposed of, but a flayed body with the skin left on the face would do that too, in addition to cowing your subjects and vassals with the sheer additional brutality of your house, in an already brutal world.
  2. To answer the title of your thread literally:
  3. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    I'm not sure the entire Union can go EFTA without breaking the Good Friday Agreement about an open border in Ireland, in the absence of technological solutions. Hence the backstop in the WA that ties NI to the single market and the bigger Island to the east to a customs union. Unless you are happy to allow NI to do it's own thing and have a potential border across the Irish Sea (depending on what arrangement the bigger Island decides on eventually with the EU), any WA will have this backstop, and the DUP and many others will not support it. It's infuriating that this issue was not properly highlighted to the public and debated in HOC at the start of the process rather than MPs pretending to be surprised by 'vassal state stuff' and 'separate treatment of NI to the test of the Union' only when the final WA popped up late last year - this constraint was known from the time May committed to the backstop in 2016. Also why did May agree to restrict the scope of the negotiations with the EU to the WA without discussing the future relationship in parallel, or even first. What a shambles.
  4. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Yes, of course. I'm very sorry I shot that off in a hurry, it was meant to be rhetorical- as in the Tories are so paralyzed and polarised, with neither camp having any faith in May, but Leavers unable to push her out until the 1yr since last party no confidence motion and Remainers unwilling to try any unofficial moves to force her out as we may end up with BJ or Gove, so there is not much of a government around to act on the petition, or on anything else for that matter.
  5. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Who is the government? May? Remainer cabinet ministers? Leaver cabinet minsters? The civil service? The ERG? HOC?
  6. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    EU carefully making sure the blood of any no deal Brexit is not on their hands. Don't blame them. Now a no deal happens if MV3 fails (assuming speaker allows it in the first place) and the UK by April 12th do not confirm they will take part in EU Parliament elections and agree to a long delay, and do not come back with any other plan either (of course, any such plan will obviously be shot down, but we ain't telling you that now - but to be fair the UK is not capable of coming with any plans anyway, so it's a bluff that will never be called). In other words, hard Brexit on April 12th will be the UK's fault. Sorry, Ireland, we know you bailed out French and German banks out in 2008 by agreeing to kindly transform a banking crisis into a sovereign debt crisis when you really didn't need to, and cut your nurses' and firefighters' pensions and wages when you only needed to let your silly banks default on their European lenders instead of allowing your government to pay off those debts. We need you to take this on the chin for us one more time, attaboy. Only Frau Merkel can save everybody by overruling this EU election constraint, and finding another way of extending, because I don't see MV3 passing (assuming it even takes place) after May's rant yesterday. #TheLastAdultInTheRoom ------------------------------------- PS: The only other option is to revoke A50, but I don't blame MPs if they are concerned about personal safety Simply unbelievable- this whole thing could have been from a GRRM plot!
  7. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    I think Spockydog meant the lead time to pass the motion in the face of blocking by the ERG. The timelines have shifted now though with April 12th the new March 29th. If the deal is rejected in its third “meaningful vote” in the Commons, the UK would be given until 12 April to come to the European Council with its proposals for the way forward. If the UK agreed to take part in European Parliament elections in May, the possibility would be open for a further extension of several months.
  8. Ser Hedge

    Can Aegon I conquer Europe in the 15th century?

    Where Aegon came short against Dorne was nobles and commoners fighting a struggle together and willing to take the pain of a long guerrilla struggle in the wilderness, while all the castles were burnt. The conditions are very similar to the Scots' struggle under Wallace and Bruce and given the favourable terrain, I thought Scotland can hold out by fighting a guerrilla war. They would have to give up Edinburgh, Stirling, Berwick and other Southern cities and castles, yes. The same tactics can be applied in Cumbria, but southern England and the Midlands don't have terrain for guerrilla warfare. And if the church stays out and does not call on the population to fight a crusade against the invaders, I don't see commoners willingly struggling alongside the nobility for years like the Scots independence war. Of course, the earls will be able to raise levy armies for short periods of time and the divide and conquer strategy in Westeros (where only the Westerlands and the Reach formed an alliance and everyone else was picked off one by one) does not necessarily apply here as England is technically one nation, but I still think Aegon could do it. The sizes of the armies that could be raised were quite small and he could keep the forces raised by different lords from merging together by picking them off one by one in separate smaller fields of fire. (He has to campaign in summer obviously). He can take enough castles by threatening to burn them down and base his land forces there. A lot of propaganda aimed at the common Saxon population that he is here to overthrow the recently arrived Norman nobility would help a lot as well. As you say, during the war of roses it would be even easier, but even Edward I faced rebellious barons during his reign. The divisions during Edward II were even stronger under a weak king. Another strategy would be to ally with the Scots, Welsh and Irish against the English, but then you lose the northern English lords whose gripe with Edward I was they had to bring disproportionate resources to his wars with Scotland and their lands suffered the most in revenge raids, so there are downsides to this Celtic strategy. The Saxon angle is probably better and once you have England, treat Wales and Scotland better than they were by the English.
  9. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Let's say the EU elections are held without us and as you say the seats are reallocated ( or do those seats just cease to exist and European Parliament becomes smaller? I don't know). Now it turns out the UK comes back to the EU like an annoying distant relative who wants to park itself on the couch for a few 'weeks' (I.e. the A50 period is officially extended for 2 years or whatever). Can the same arrangements be made as they were for the more recent entrants to the EU when they joined mid-cycle? They (Croatia, Romania) sent appointed representatives to EU Parliament until the next election cycle, similarly the UK divides up its quota between the parties in proportion to their Westminster MPs, asks each party to nominate them and off we go?
  10. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Got it thx. A political analyst (well actually an economic analyst who has had to become a political one with this mess) thought that while this is very difficult of course, it might not be unsurmountable. Clearly would be a huge, huge headache for the EU. I was actually thinking of the movie Darkest Hour and how Chamberlain is replaced with Churchill at the helm of a national unity government. Is that completely LOTR-sy while we're stuck in a ASOIAF world? Well, ok, to be fair there is not an actual war on. But we have to be really, really thankful there isn't, because with this crew, there would be no hope of even a bitter sweet ending!
  11. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    After it gets voted down, the EU will likely (barring vetoes) offer the option of a longer extension. Parliament from its side - not sure through what mechanism - will try to stop a no deal from happening (not sure they will revoke A50). May claims she will not be the one to ask for a long extension. So, she'd theoretically have to resign and let someone else do it (but she might still stay on anyway). The EU will likely not want to trigger a no-deal exit in the midst of this chaos (The Republic of Ireland will be caught up and get it worse than Team GB) and probably unilaterally extend all agreements as was posted here before. (I don't know if Corbyn wants to move a no confidence motion in the middle of this). Anyway, we muddle through with a unilateral EU extension or a longer delay agreed with May or a Tory caretaker PM. Tory leadership election throws up a hard Brexiteer PM. Parliament is still remain/soft Brexit. Deadlock. General election maybe, but probably still deadlock. Second Referendum? Maybe, but what question to ask. Meanwhile yellow vest rent a mob Brexiteers run riot.
  12. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    Not sure about timeline, but I have heard there is a way around not having MEPs. Appointed representatives can be sent to EU Parliament as countries that acceded to the EU mid-cycle did. So, I'm not sure that missing the election means not being able to revoke A50. :-D Don't disagree, but removes the no deal cliff edge. You know at worst Britain will be in the customs union and the six counties in the single market. Not great for many reasons, but better than the shambles we're in at the moment. And mainly, the good people that voted Leave can be told we have left, so they can calm down and carry on. Well, some of them, at least. As for the others: Err, what's that, you lost your job at the car plant that used to be in a seamless cross-EU supply chain, because the Japanese owners couldn't take all the excitement and bailed? Maybe you can move to Slovakia and look for a job there. Except that, you'll need a visa. Your town lost it's EU funding? Well theoretically, the money being sent to the EU budget before should be used to replace all EU grants. Except that, sorry that's not how it works around here. Now bgger off and find somebody else to blame.
  13. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    How is his vague customs union deal not compatible with this withdrawal? Sigh .............. not that he's the only one to blame here and not that the withdrawal agreement on the table is my preferred option, but at least it let's us move on!
  14. Ser Hedge

    UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

    I guess that's the case, and they want pure free trade agreement with whomever we want Nirvana, but is that worth the pain of a no deal that not all the 52% that voted leave in the referendum voted for and violating the Good Friday agreement, when on the other hand, you can accept this withdrawal agreement, slide into the backstop of the customs union, until the technology is ready to let you out of the backstop, while respecting the Good Friday agreement? (Sorry @The Anti-Targ it's a rhetorical question obviously :-), actually probably more a rant) And it's not like there is a queue out there waiting to sign free trade deals. Some smaller commodity exporters can probably be arm-twisted, but larger Emerging Markets will want their own pound of flesh and it all takes years. If you are a hard Brexiteer who has the decency to not inflict massive pain on people who don't understand what decisions are being taken here really and have respect for the Good Friday Agreement, there is little reason to not take this deal and work over the next get years to find a way of exiting the backstop and reaching your free trade 'Nirvana'.
  15. Ser Hedge

    Jon's Shield Hall Speech and Subsequent Plan

    Ah, if Gandalf had summoned the eagles earlier, it would have been a less interesting story :-)
×