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Br16

How does Illyrio feel now after Dany wrecked Essos Economy?

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I bet he lost money too from all the lost trade and skyrocketing labor costs after slavery was abolished, not to mention his three ships and trade goods that Dany commandeered to Meereen. 

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5 hours ago, Br16 said:

I bet he lost money too from all the lost trade and skyrocketing labor costs after slavery was abolished, not to mention his three ships and trade goods that Dany commandeered to Meereen. 

I don't think Illyrio gives a fig or two for the ships. They may be even insured and anyway Illyrio is playing a different game, so he doesn't have much concern about Essos economy unless these problems interfere with his political plans (i.e. Aegon in the Iron Throne)

Essos economy hasn't been wrecked yet.  Quoting Qavo

Quote

"but the girl's true sin cannot be denied. This arrogant child has taken it upon herself to smash the slave trade, but that traffic was never confined to Slaver's Bay. It was part of the sea of trade that spanned the world, and the dragon queen has clouded the water. Behind the Black Wall, lords of ancient blood sleep poorly, listening as their kitchen slaves sharpen their long knives. Slaves grow our food, clean our streets, teach our young. They guard our walls, row our galleys, fight our battles. And now when they look east, they see this young queen shining from afar, this breaker of chains. The Old Blood cannot suffer that. Poor men hate her too. Even the vilest beggar stands higher than a slave. This dragon queen would rob him of that consolation." - Tyrion VI, ADWD

So the problem is not an economic one but a political and cultural one. Daenerys represents freedom for the slaves that sustain the economies of Essos and rebellions may start across Essos, with Dany or without.

This is why Volantis sailed against Dany. Not to restore Mereen, but to smash any hope of a successful slave revolt. Yunkai is in the same boat, they are not going to restore the Great Masters, as they didn't restore the Good Masters in Astapor. They are going to raze it to the ground.

Illyrio will happily support any anti slavery revolution if that what it takes to make Dany happy and married to Aegon.

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39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think Illyrio gives a fig or two for the ships. They may be even insured and anyway Illyrio is playing a different game, so he doesn't have much concern about Essos economy unless these problems interfere with his political plans (i.e. Aegon in the Iron Throne)

Essos economy hasn't been wrecked yet.  Quoting Qavo

So the problem is not an economic one but a political and cultural one. Daenerys represents freedom for the slaves that sustain the economies of Essos and rebellions may start across Essos, with Dany or without.

This is why Volantis sailed against Dany. Not to restore Mereen, but to smash any hope of a successful slave revolt. Yunkai is in the same boat, they are not going to restore the Great Masters, as they didn't restore the Good Masters in Astapor. They are going to raze it to the ground.

Illyrio will happily support any anti slavery revolution if that what it takes to make Dany happy and married to Aegon.

Perhaps, and a man as rich as Illyrio probably has a hundred ship merchant fleet. So I understand how losing some money will not bother him as long as his plots are still underway.

However, I think it is clear he is going to lose control, he basically opened the pandora's box with Dany and her dragons. 

Perhaps he might end up defeated and broke. It would be a very GRRM thing to do. 

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7 hours ago, Br16 said:

I bet he lost money too from all the lost trade and skyrocketing labor costs after slavery was abolished, not to mention his three ships and trade goods that Dany commandeered to Meereen.

Slavery is only abolished as far as Dany's reach extends, and right now that's just Slaver's Bay. Honestly, the Free Cities might be benefiting is slavers are passing over Slaver's Bay and bringing their slaves west. 

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

They may be even insured and anyway Illyrio is playing a different game, so he doesn't have much concern about Essos economy unless these problems interfere with his political plans

Basically this. Illyrio is playing the long game and as long as Dany and Aegon succeeds, he wins. I'm sure he was kind of miffed when he found out Dany was freeing slaves, but I'm sure he would gladly free all his slaves if it meant having the ear of the Iron Throne. I wouldn't be shocked if he had been working to diversity his wealth since he found out about Dany. Honestly, he would have to sell them all anyways if he went to Westeros after Aegon takes over. Loss of money, but small peanuts compared to power. 

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It would depend on whether he values his wealth more than Aegon's opportunity to sit on the throne. 

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On 6/13/2019 at 10:56 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Illyrio will happily support any anti slavery revolution if that what it takes to make Dany happy and married to Aegon.

This.

On 6/13/2019 at 11:39 AM, Br16 said:

Perhaps he might end up defeated and broke. It would be a very GRRM thing to do. 

Some of us are sure he will end up dying a violent death, with his fingers cut off for the rings.

The Windblown company marched to Meereen along with the Yunkai, but in actuality with the Company's leader - the Tattered Prince - hoping to switch sides before arriving. That's why he sent Quentyn and co into Meereen - to negotiate with Dany. He wants Dany's armies to help take Pentos for him, in return for him fighting on her side.

At the time Dany refused, not wanting to attack the city where her golden goose who gave her dragon eggs, Selmy, 3 ships full of cargo, etc is a magister. But then she flew off on Drogon, and Selmy as her Hand agreed to this deal.

By the time Dany rejoins her forces (whether that is in Meereen or Volantis), Tyrion will be one of the party. He's been predicted to be snarling in the midst of "dragons", as if directing the war between Targ claimants. Tyion's clever comments to Aegon made Aegon decide to go for Westeros and conquer the Iron Throne without dragons, instead of continuing to Dany in Meereen and propose marriage to her (as Quentyn did and failed). Aegon is taking the Stormlands like a storm, and Varys just killed Pycelle and Kevan to put Cersei the self-destructive mad woman back into charge, and keeping her focused on the Tyrells as a threat, instead of Aegon. So, Aegon might indeed take the Iron Throne al by himself.

And when Tyrion tells Dany about Aegon, how he's been Illyrio's protege all his life - with a halfmaester, and a fallen septa and Jon Connington and a knight - for as long as Viserys and Dany were traveling the Free Cities on their own, having to sell their mother's crown, running from assassins (though that was Viserys' paranoia really, still Dany has come to adopt it as canon later in the books), Dany's going to be very pissed at Illyrio, for not having done the same for her and her brother. She will be envious over the fact that she didn't get to be raised on a boat alongside Aegon, with a septa and a maester. She will be pissed that Aegon was just given the Golden Company, while she had to wed Drogo, carve out her own army, conquer Slaver's Bay, etc... Of course, it was Dany's decision to sail for Astapor from Qarth instead of Pentos, much like it was Dany's decision to have MMD perform magic on Drogo after he put germ infested mud on his chest (against MMDs advice). But we both know who she blamed for Drogo's fate; killed MMD, and now always thinks of it as MMD having killed Drogo and her son Rhaego (though it was in fact herself who smothered Drogo). Regardless, Dany tends to alter the narrative to forget her own choices and actions in an arc, while putting all responsibility and blame on an identifiable other person who had ulterior motives. So, she will totally be okay then with taking Pentos for the Tattered Prince, before she finishes the last leg of the voyage to Westeros, crossing the Narrow Sea to confront Aegon on the Iron Throne.  

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5 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

And when Tyrion tells Dany about Aegon, how he's been Illyrio's protege all his life

You give such an excellent and in depth analysis. I agree that Illyrio and Pentos is going to be sacked. It wouldn't be GRRM if it didn't happen. He should have been happy with his wealth and title as Magister. He really overreached (imo) trying to play the Game of Thrones on the scale he is doing now. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Br16 said:

You give such an excellent and in depth analysis. I agree that Illyrio and Pentos is going to be sacked. It wouldn't be GRRM if it didn't happen. He should have been happy with his wealth and title as Magister. He really overreached (imo) trying to play the Game of Thrones on the scale he is doing now. 

Well, if he hadn't, then Dany and Viserys would still be poor exiles traveling from Free City to Free City of course. And getting your golden goose killed never ends well.

Edited by sweetsunray

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Just now, sweetsunray said:

Well, if he hadn't, then Dany and Viserys would still be poor exiles traveling from Free City to Free City of course.

A theory I read some time ago suggested that Dany and Viserys were for some time under the protection of Illyrio and Varys (perhaps after Darry died), and they constantly shifted them around their cronies who pretended to be city leaders etc. (so fake taking in and fake throwing them out) as a way to manipulate them, and to pick on them as Illyrio might have Blackfyre sympathies (ie. Aegon is Illyrio's son with Serra and a Blackfyre theory).

Sounds possible to me. 

So if Illyrio hand not played the game, there is a possibility that they might actually have been taken in by real City leaders or Free city nobles. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Br16 said:

A theory I read some time ago suggested that Dany and Viserys were for some time under the protection of Illyrio and Varys (perhaps after Darry died), and they constantly shifted them around their cronies who pretended to be city leaders etc. (so fake taking in and fake throwing them out) as a way to manipulate them, and to pick on them as Illyrio might have Blackfyre sympathies (ie. Aegon is Illyrio's son with Serra and a Blackfyre theory).

Sounds possible to me. 

So if Illyrio hand not played the game, there is a possibility that they might actually have been taken in by real City leaders or Free city nobles. 

They were taken in by real leaders of Tyrosh, since Doran intended to send Arianne to Tyrosh as cupbearer for the leader in order to meet with Viserys, and the Tyroshi Triarch sent his daughter to Dorne for a while as ward. There is no need to set up people to be "fake leaders", when those leaders have merchant interests in selling stuff in Westerosi harbors and Varys and Illyrio can send them information that King Robert may require higher tolls for entering Westeros harbors or refuse them entry into ports. On top of that Viserys was a troublemaker all on his own. You should be a triarch and have him ogling your daughter or threaten your son with a blustering knife, and finding him at claiming you should give him all your wealth to provide for his army. How soon would you put him out of your house? Illyrio could risk taking them in for so long, because he had no son or daughter in the house of Pentos for Viserys to threaten.

I do agree though that Aegon is likely Illyrio's son with Serra, though I think Serra is a Targ descendant, from Saera Targaryen who was a soiled septa who ran off to Lys and stayed there for a while, before starting a brothel in Volantis.

Edited by sweetsunray

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4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

They were taken in by real leaders of Tyrosh, since Doran intended to send Arianne to Tyrosh as cupbearer for the leader in order to meet with Viserys. There is no need to set up people to be "fake leaders", when those leaders have merchant interests in selling stuff in Westerosi harbors and Varys and Illyrio can send them information that King Robert may require higher tolls for entering Westeros harbors or refuse them entry into ports. On top of that Viserys was a troublemaker all on his own. You should be a triarch and have him ogling your daughter or threaten your son with a blustering knife, and finding him at claiming you should give him all your wealth to provide for his army. How soon would you put him out of your house? Illyrio could risk taking them in for so long, because he had no son or daughter in the house of Pentos.

Fair point, but I always wondered how Dany and Viserys  could be so broke if Doran was so secretly supportive. I feel to some extent, the theory is true-I could see a Illyrio crony buying that crown from Viserys, who was still psychologically okay before that event. 

 

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1 minute ago, Br16 said:

Fair point, but I always wondered how Dany and Viserys  could be so broke if Doran was so secretly supportive. I feel to some extent, the theory is true-I could see a Illyrio crony buying that crown from Viserys, who was still psychologically okay before that event. 

 

Voyage costs. It requires money to have ships take you somewhere, and you sail from city to city in Essos. Once they left Tyrosh, Doran couldn't be supportive anymore - he lost track of them - and even he had to be careful in his mind when it came to being supportive. Might be he sent help whenever they popped up somewhere, but it takes time for the news to travel to Westeros and for someone to travel from Westeros to that Free City. By then Viserys would have fled with Dany already. Davos for example only learns of Dany and her dragons having been in Qarth in aDwD. By then she's already leading Meereen.

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1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

Voyage costs. It requires money to have ships take you somewhere, and you sail from city to city in Essos. Once they left Tyrosh, Doran couldn't be supportive anymore - he lost track of them - and even he had to be careful in his mind when it came to being supportive. Might be he sent help whenever they popped up somewhere, but it takes time for the news to travel to Westeros and for someone to travel from Westeros to that Free City. By then Viserys would have fled with Dany already. Davos for example only learns of Dany and her dragons having been in Qarth in aDwD. By then she's already leading Meereen.

Probably, although this is from the show, but Arya had to give two big pouches of silver to a Braavos captain to take her back to Westeros, so I know it could be expensive. 

But I always thought the Dornish were among the sneakiest and most resourceful people around. Couldn't Doran have an autonomous crew of Dorne elite forces shadow the two Targs to keep control?

Perhaps Illyrio was simply the shrewder man with a network to match.

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53 minutes ago, Br16 said:

Probably, although this is from the show,

Spoiler

but Arya had to give two big pouches of silver to a Braavos captain to take her back to Westeros, so I know it could be expensive. 

 

We have a Qartheen chapter too about fares for passage on ships for Dany, and Quentyn's in Volantis.

53 minutes ago, Br16 said:

But I always thought the Dornish were among the sneakiest and most resourceful people around. Couldn't Doran have an autonomous crew of Dorne elite forces shadow the two Targs to keep control?

Perhaps Illyrio was simply the shrewder man with a network to match.

Doran and Oberyn are sneaky, but that sneakiness is also often exaggerated with many readers. I don't know about resources however. If he sends his own son on a perilous voyage to Meereen without an autonomous elite crew, but just a maester and 4 knights, I doubt he had elite forces shadow two Targs who aren't even blood. Doran didn't even entrust Arianne with the knowledge of the marriage pact for years and years, for fear of Robert finding out. So, why would he entrust soldiers with the order to tag after Dany and Viserys for years?

Yes, Doran and Oberyn have a network of spies and informants. That is more than most great houses of Westeros have. Tullys and Starks have none. Jon Arryn relies on Varys's, which is compromised, and Lysa on LF who is also compromised. Tywin Lannister also relies on Varys. The Tyrells may have a spy here or there at KL court. So, Doran's and Oberyn's is more extensive and independent, but it's nowhere near Illyrio's and Varys's who at least have an Essosi base and merchant ships.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

We have a Qartheen chapter too about fares for passage on ships for Dany, and Quentyn's in Volantis.

Doran and Oberyn are sneaky, but that sneakiness is also often exaggerated with many readers. I don't know about resources however. If he sends his own son on a perilous voyage to Meereen without an autonomous elite crew, but just a maester and 4 knights, I doubt he had elite forces shadow two Targs who aren't even blood. Doran didn't even entrust Arianne with the knowledge of the marriage pact for years and years, for fear of Robert finding out. So, why would he entrust soldiers with the order to tag after Dany and Viserys for years?

Yes, Doran and Oberyn have a network of spies and informants. That is more than most great houses of Westeros have. Tullys and Starks have none. Jon Arryn relies on Varys's, which is compromised, and Lysa on LF who is also compromised. Tywin Lannister also relies on Varys. The Tyrells may have a spy here or there at KL court. So, Doran's and Oberyn's is more extensive and independent, but it's nowhere near Illyrio's and Varys's who at least have an Essosi base and merchant ships.

Yeah, I always had trouble understanding why Quentyn had to travel with such a puny escort. Of course I know it was meant to be secret, but I still can't help but think Doran could have done better for his son.

And Arianne is basically teenager/young adult, so loose lips not suitable for important secrets. I feel that a man like Doran should have ultra loyalist elite soldiers to do these type of work, but apparently he doesn't. 

Also, do you recall what the prices were from those chapters. Its been a while since I read the books and I don't have them anymore. 

Edited by Br16

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