Was the Battle on the Green Fork the first example of bolton treason

[acwill07]

On 1/7/2020 at 3:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

It was definitely not an accident, but I'd say it is definitely a difference Roose allowing something to happen (and perhaps quietly being pleased how things turned out) or him actually setting up things so people would get killed (as he definitely did later at Harrenhal). Roose is too cautious a man, in my opinion, to consider open treason at a time when he has no way of figuring out how the war is going to go.

And there were so many factors outside of his control that made him betray the Starks that his own deviousness likely is the least important factor there - there was Ned's execution, Robb's proclamation to king and the trouble that came with that, Renly's death, Stannis' defeat at the Blackwater, the Westerling marriage, and Cat's decision to let Jaime go. Even as late as Jaime's visit at Harrenhal Roose Bolton was still considering whether he should go through with a betrayal or not. The man is not making important decisions lightly.

In that sense - all I can see him doing at the Green Fork is deciding not to risk the lives of his own troops. Which was his prerogative as general of the army. But considering the quarrelsome and belligerent nature of many Northmen I cannot see Roose pushing or forcing anyone to take the van against their will - that could have caused trouble in the army as such, crippling his authority as a general (after all, he had just been named by the heir of Lord Eddard who wasn't even a man grown yet), not to mention made him look like a weakling or coward (which could have encouraged the ambitions of his many direct neighbors).

Thus my gut feeling would be that all he did was to encourage others to volunteer to lead the men in the battle, and exploiting their willingness to die. But we don't really know.

We've got numerous posters on this board who have convinced themselves that Jon is the son of Eddard and Ashara, when there's literally zero proof and all the logical evidence points toward Lyanna/Rheagar, and this is the theory that people have a hard time wrapping their mind around?

You're right, it's not explicitly stated in the books that Roose was being disloyal at or around the time of the Battle of the Green Fork, but it's a logical conclusion to come to.  Knowing what we now know about Bolton, I would say that it's not a coincidence that the vast majority of the casualties suffered during that battle were from all the other houses under his command as opposed to his house.  I think @John Suburbs has it exactly right ITT.  Roose may not have been being outwardly disloyal, especially considering he doesn't know how this war is going to end, but he definitely sacrificed other men in order to make sure that his house was in the best position once the war was over.

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, acwill07 said:

You're right, it's not explicitly stated in the books that Roose was being disloyal at or around the time of the Battle of the Green Fork, but it's a logical conclusion to come to.  Knowing what we now know about Bolton, I would say that it's not a coincidence that the vast majority of the casualties suffered during that battle were from all the other houses under his command as opposed to his house.  I think @John Suburbs has it exactly right ITT.  Roose may not have been being outwardly disloyal, especially considering he doesn't know how this war is going to end, but he definitely sacrificed other men in order to make sure that his house was in the best position once the war was over.

My issue was whether Roose deliberately put other men than his in potentially dangerous positions or whether said men wanted to fight where they fought.

If the latter were the case we could not credit Roose with what happened, would we?

And I maintain that I find it more plausible for Roose's personality to do his best to ensure the Starks see him as a competent general - because if he looks incompetent, cowardly, or ends up being blamed for the loss of the war he could easily lose more than he could hope to gain with such underhanded tactics.

What Roose eventually did was only possible because a lot of things happened that enabled him to betray the Starks and seize power. There are a number of scenarios imaginable where Roose, only focusing on weakening others and preserving his own strength, could cause his own downfall (or at least severe problems).

And I think the character is written to be more cautious and calculating than that.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 1/2/2020 at 2:42 PM, Mrstrategy said:

Was the Battle on the Green Fork the first example of Bolton treason because looking at the casualties it seems that Bolton wasted a large of his army on the battle specially troops that were from other lords as well as allowing a number of important lords to be captured or killed.

 

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Battle_on_the_Green_Fork

No... Roose was clearly thinking ahead, but no. 

The battle was necessary. Robb's strategy was a desperate gamble. He split his forces in the face of a superior enemy. Very, very few commanders in the real world have ever done that successfully. Even at full strength after gaining Frey support Tywin's host at the Ruby Ford was slightly larger than Robb's at the Twins. Without the Knights of the Vale Robb realized that the only way he could increase the size of his army was to lift the siege of Riverrun and gain the support of the scattered River Lords. But if he took his entire host west Tywin would have marched that way too and he would have been caught between Tywin and Jaime. So Robb had to pin down Tywin. That was Roose's job. And Roose did an excellemt job. He stole a march to try to catch Tywin by surprise. Roose did not take the bait and rush Tywin's left flank as Tywin had hoped. Roose retrated in good order preserving his army. He retreated all the way up the causeway in case Robb lost. Of course that's when Roose and Walder got a little too close. But after Robb's victory and Tywin's retreat to Harrenhal Roose advanced to the Ruby Ford. 

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

No... Roose was clearly thinking ahead, but no. 

The battle was necessary. Robb's strategy was a desperate gamble. He split his forces in the face of a superior enemy. Very, very few commanders in the real world have ever done that successfully. Even at full strength after gaining Frey support Tywin's host at the Ruby Ford was slightly larger than Robb's at the Twins. Without the Knights of the Vale Robb realized that the only way he could increase the size of his army was to lift the siege of Riverrun and gain the support of the scattered River Lords. But if he took his entire host west Tywin would have marched that way too and he would have been caught between Tywin and Jaime. So Robb had to pin down Tywin. That was Roose's job. And Roose did an excellemt job. He stole a march to try to catch Tywin by surprise. Roose did not take the bait and rush Tywin's left flank as Tywin had hoped. Roose retrated in good order preserving his army. He retreated all the way up the causeway in case Robb lost. Of course that's when Roose and Walder got a little too close. But after Robb's victory and Tywin's retreat to Harrenhal Roose advanced to the Ruby Ford. 

Yeah, if one thinks about this whole thing than Roose is actually a fucking genius for actually saving Robb's army. Considering the fact that he had about a tenth of Robb's cavalry left, facing a huge chunk of the chivalry of the West and an army of infantry greatly outnumbering his own, and that Tywin likely didn't exactly choose a bad place for the camp site, it is a miracle that he could retreat in good order and prevent it from turning into a rout.

In fact, this may have only worked because Roose was Roose and not Robb (i.e. a cautious and calculating general feigning the youthful bravado Tywin would expect from Robb) and Tywin was actually expecting Robb and had made plans to outmaneuver and defeat him. If one thinks about it ruse with the collapsing flank most likely would have worked if Robb and his cavalry had been the ones charging into the Lannister lines.

And as I think I mentioned above - there were so many things going wrong for Robb and the North that were out of anyone's control leading to Roose's betrayal neither of which had taken place at the Green Fork yet. Back then Eddard Stark was still alive (or thought to be alive).

But I've to add that Roose retreating back to the Twins with the army was not so much of an issue - what enabled Roose and Walder to hook up and grow close without Robb's people keeping an eye on them was the fact that Edmure commanded Ser Helman Tallhart - originally left at the Twins with a garrison of 400 archers and swordsmen to keep and eye on Walder and ensured the continued loyalty of the Freys (necessary for Robb if he wanted to return the way he had come as he, in the end, tried to do) - to team up with Roose's army and take Harrenhal.

This was the crucial mistake. Without that, there wouldn't have been a Red Wedding. Walder wouldn't have dared to plan something like that with hundreds of loyal Northmen looking over his shoulder, even after the Westerling marriage.

Sometimes such little details are very important. A similar thing would the huge effect Rhaenyra's lack of coin had on the outcome of the Dance. And the author choosing to arrange things so that Edmure, somebody who clearly did not want to ruin his nephew's campaign or get him and his sister killed and himself imprisoned, did something so little what had such large effects should convince the reader that the message George wants to send that sometimes dreadful/great/important things do happen not because some super mastermind plotter sets them up (Roose, Littlefinger, etc.) but because many small things accumulate, change the overall political situation, and enable or embolden certain people to take chances or consider doing things (and then actually do them) they would have never thought about had the overall situation been slightly different (as it would have been if Tallhart and his men had still been at the Twins in ASoS).