What's the point of Bonifer Hasty?

[Lord Varys]

59 minutes ago, Firefae said:

And who will he support then? YG or Dany? The latter might remind him of Rhaella. But he strikes me as a religious conservative man who wants a man on the throne.

Aegon.

In fact, I think most, perhaps even all, of the remaining Targaryen loyalists in Westeros (or folks who are inclined to switch to House Targaryen in the present situation for their own selfish reasons) are likely to end up in team Aegon for the time being. And there are quite a few of those, not just in the Reach or the Riverlands but apparently also in the Stormlands (Stormlanders are flocking to Griffin's Roost even before Aegon takes Storm's End). And there are Targaryen cousins out there like the Tarths and the Plumms and the Penroses who might view Aegon's landing as a signal to show their true colors.

Aegon is the Targaryen who landed in Westeros, while Daenerys is presumed dead and lost somewhere in the Dothraki Sea. By the time she shows up in Westeros Aegon might sit the Iron Throne for months.

But this doesn't mean that folks among those Targaryen loyalists do not defect from Aegon's side to Daenerys in due time. They could be motivated by her relative strength and prestige compared to Aegon's (she has dragons and vast armies), by rumors and revelations about Aegon's true parentage, or if Aegon turns out to be a fool or a tyrant.

However, my gut feeling is that Dany's main Westerosi supporters upon her arrival will be folks who are already the enemies of her enemies - meaning, if Aegon is on the Iron Throne at that time, that Dany's natural allies and supporters won't be so much Targaryen loyalists in the Reach, the Riverlands, and elsewhere ... but rather Westermen (because the Lannisters might severely clash with Aegon in the near future), Northmen (if Stannis and Aegon ever clash) or the Tyrells (if Mace and Margaery oppose Aegon's rise to power and they are pissed how things turned out in the end).

 

[Mister Smikes]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nothing indicates Rhaegar had any say in the matter of his marriage.

Who else would have a say, other than Aerys?  And Aerys was not exactly wild about the idea of a Dornish marriage, as you just pointed out.

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Tywin asked King Aerys II to marry Rhaegar to Cersei, not the Prince of Dragonstone. Tywin also didn't dare approach Rhaegar with the marriage idea again later when Aerys II was imprisoned in Duskendale and Tywin was ruling the Realm as Hand of the King, indicating that Rhaegar couldn't choose a bride without his father's permission.

Permission from the father (assuming it was ultimately obtained) in no way implies that the son did not "have a say".

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Aerys II later sent Steffon Baratheon to Volantis to find a proper Valyrian bride for Rhaegar, and nothing indicates that Steffon or the king included Rhaegar in any of that.

Rhaegar never married any such "proper Valyrian bride".  Whether he would or would not have "had a say" had such a bride been found is unknown, speculative, and hypothetical.

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One can, perhaps, speculate that Queen Rhaella played a minor role in arranging the Elia-Rhaegar match considering she may have acted as a go-between to establish contact between Aerys II and the Princess of Dorne. But that's it.

I see.  So Rhaella might possibly have had some influence, because you the Great Lord Varys, have decreed it.  But Rhaegar cannot possibly have played any role in his own marriage, because you the Great Lord Varys, have decreed that as well.

It's great that we all have you, the personal spokesman of GRRM, to set us all straight on such things.

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Nothing indicates that anyone asked Rhaegar whether he wanted to marry Elia Martell.

Nothing indicates that anyone asked Aerys either.  (or Rhaella either, for that matter) But I am inclined to suspect, under the circumstances, that Aerys was at least consulted.  But what do I know?  Unlike you, I am not the personal spokesman of GRRM.

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Our sources tell us that the betrothal of Elia and Rhaegar was announced - which means both Elia and Rhaegar could have learned from the royal herald that they were betrothed now.

Is that how betrothals are generally handled in Westeros?  I never knew.  It is a good thing we have you, as personal spokesman of GRRM, to set us straight on such things.

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Their parents could have talked to them about that ... or not. We don't know. Catelyn makes matches for Robb and Arya when treating with Lord Walder ... and neither of her children have a right to be included in such deliberations.

 This is confusing.  Because somehow, Rob's marriage vows, made in contradiction to this agreement, were not assumed to be null and void.  But I am sure that you, the personal spokesman of GRRM, can shed additional light on this matter, and we all must bow before your authority at our peril.

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If Aerys II had known Elia was his child ...

I never suggested he knew.  I have no idea if he knew or not.  That plays no role in the hypothetical.

[Loose Bolt]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

However, my gut feeling is that Dany's main Westerosi supporters upon her arrival will be folks who are already the enemies of her enemies - meaning, if Aegon is on the Iron Throne at that time, that Dany's natural allies and supporters won't be so much Targaryen loyalists in the Reach, the Riverlands, and elsewhere ... but rather Westermen (because the Lannisters might severely clash with Aegon in the near future), Northmen (if Stannis and Aegon ever clash) or the Tyrells (if Mace and Margaery oppose Aegon's rise to power and they are pissed how things turned out in the end).

Lannisters murdered Dany's father, nephew  and niece. So I suspect that unless Lannisters are either insane or very desperate they will not ally with Dany. Naturally assuming that Cersei and Jaime are still alive when Dany comes to Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

15 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Lannisters murdered Dany's father, nephew  and niece. So I suspect that unless Lannisters are either insane or very desperate they will not ally with Dany. Naturally assuming that Cersei and Jaime are still alive when Dany comes to Westeros.

Why? The enemy of your enemy is your friend. Assuming Aegon sits the Iron Throne or is at least a (or the) main rival pretender, he will be Dany's main enemy, not humbled Lannisters or other Westermen.

Dany should also get no opportunity to avenge her dead kin - Aegon should do that in her stead. He is the first Targaryen pretender in Westeros, so he will settle the scores with the Baratheons and their allies, not Daenerys. Jon Connington is already sharpening his knives.

Dany is not likely to ever work with Jaime, but he is no longer a leader of House Lannister. And Cersei only leads a royal faction as long as her remaining children are still alive. Once they are dead, she could ally with another pretender, even Daenerys, if she were to view her as an instrument to get her revenge on, say, Aegon and his cronies - assuming they play key roles in the deaths of Tommen and Myrcella.

[Of course it is much more likely that Cersei will ally with Euron in such a setting, but Daenerys certainly is also a possibility. There is no bad blood between Dany and Cersei. If Tyrion were to play a key role in camp Dany this would also be unlikely.]

But Tywin's children aren't the only Lannisters around. Other branches of the family could cut their ties with the mad twins and choose their own sides. That would especially interesting if none of Tywin's children were at Casterly Rock when Daenerys finally arrives.

Bottom line just is that Aegon should take all the remaining Targaryen loyalists and Targaryen friendly folk now, meaning Dany's potential allies in Westeros have to be other people - they will be come from Aegon's enemies, folks who are disappointed by Aegon, and some opportunists.

[Mister Smikes]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Catelyn makes matches for Robb and Arya when treating with Lord Walder ... and neither of her children have a right to be included in such deliberations.

Catelyn disagrees with you.

""I consent." Robb said solemnly. He had never seemed more manly to her than he did in that moment. Boys might play with swords, but it took a lord to make a marriage pact, knowing what it meant."

According to Catelyn, it was Robb who "made" the marriage pact ... by consenting to it.  Catelyn seems to think Robb's consent is required.

Which makes sense.  Under the Catholic and Christian tradition (yes, even in medieval times), consent of the parties is required for the Sacrament of Marriage.   The Faith of the Seven is based on the Christian tradition.  And if consent is required to a marriage, it would seem at least advisable that consent be obtained for the betrothal as well

Which in essence means that Viserys I can threaten to disinherit Rhaenyra if she refuses to marry Laenor.  And of course the threat of disinheritance has enormous influence on those addicted to wealth and privilege. But Viserys I had no actual authority, even as king, to order her to marry Laenor.

Edit:  And oh, here's another curious quote for you from ASOS:

"Not even the High Septon himself could declare a woman married if she refused to say the vows."

 

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Catelyn disagrees with you.

""I consent." Robb said solemnly. He had never seemed more manly to her than he did in that moment. Boys might play with swords, but it took a lord to make a marriage pact, knowing what it meant."

According to Catelyn, it was Robb who "made" the marriage pact ... by consenting to it.  Catelyn seems to think Robb's consent is required.

Which makes sense.  Under the Catholic and Christian tradition (yes, even in medieval times), consent of the parties is required for the Sacrament of Marriage.   The Faith of the Seven is based on the Christian tradition.  And if consent is required to a marriage, it would seem at least advisable that consent be obtained for the betrothal as well

Which in essence means that Viserys I can threaten to disinherit Rhaenyra if she refuses to marry Laenor.  And of course the threat of disinheritance has enormous influence on those addicted to wealth and privilege. But Viserys I had no actual authority, even as king, to order her to marry Laenor.

Edit:  And oh, here's another curious quote for you from ASOS:

"Not even the High Septon himself could declare a woman married if she refused to say the vows."

I was not talking about consent here, I was talking about Rhaegar having a say in the decision who he would marry. Of course he could refuse to marry at the wedding, but that doesn't mean he could choose or was consulted in who he would marry at the king's command.

You can defy your king or lord on that matter - Brynden Tully is another example. But that comes with a cost. Royalty and nobility enter into marriage contracts on behalf of their children and other relations because they later see them through. If folks were allowed to marry who they want then there would be no need for marriage contracts and the like. Egg's children likely qualify as 'mad Targaryens' in the eyes of the general public because they insisted to marry for love. And Aegon V actually shows his inadequacy as king when he allows his childen to go through with that.

Robb also had no choice in the matter. Cat brokered the deal and then allowed him to keep face by asking him later to consent to it ... but that was due to Cat's policy of allowing Robb to lead despite the fact that he was still a minor because she did not want him to appear weak in the eyes of his future bannermen.

De iure, Catelyn Tully ruled Winterfell and the North in her husband's absence. In that sense, Robb had no right to demand that his mother or father hear his voice in the matter. You see the same thing in the Sansa-Joffrey match. Nobody asked either of the children what they wanted. And neither Robert nor Ned expected either child would oppose the match.

[Mister Smikes]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I was not talking about consent here, I was talking about Rhaegar having a say in the decision who he would marry.

If he must consent to it, then he has a say.

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Of course he could refuse to marry at the wedding, but that doesn't mean he could choose or was consulted in who he would marry at the king's command.

Aerys does not even seem to approve of the marriage.   And yet, you are trying to dictate not only that Aerys ordered it, but also that Rhaegar (who by all accounts is more capable and intelligent than Aerys) never got a word in edgewise.

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You can defy your king or lord on that matter - Brynden Tully is another example. But that comes with a cost.

Who knows if there was a cost or what the cost was.  Were there not rumors that Aerys planned to set Rhaegar aside?    You are arguing from ignorance.

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Royalty and nobility enter into marriage contracts on behalf of their children and other relations because they later see them through. If folks were allowed to marry who they want then there would be no need for marriage contracts and the like.

No, that does not follow at all.

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Egg's children likely qualify as 'mad Targaryens' in the eyes of the general public because they insisted to marry for love. And Aegon V actually shows his inadequacy as king when he allows his childen to go through with that.

Egg himself also had a say in choosing his own wife.

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Robb also had no choice in the matter.

That's the worst example you can think of, considering Robb decided to marry someone else.  Looks like he had a choice to me.

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De iure, Catelyn Tully ruled Winterfell and the North in her husband's absence. In that sense, Robb had no right to demand that his mother or father hear his voice in the matter.

De Jure, Robb was the one who was required to say his vows in front of witnesses.  The Septon is not there to hear Catelyn's opinion.

[Loose Bolt]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Why? The enemy of your enemy is your friend. Assuming Aegon sits the Iron Throne or is at least a (or the) main rival pretender, he will be Dany's main enemy, not humbled Lannisters or other Westermen.

Cersei is now head of house Lannister and she could not be sure about even her own safety under Dany's rule and Dany almost certainly would want to execute a man who killed her father and if Tommen is still alive when Dany returns to Westeros she simply could not allow T to survive. After all to secure her crown she would have to wipe out all male "Baratheons" or take a risk that somebody would rebel against either her or her heirs bc "Baratheons" has a claim to a Iron Throne. Naturally all this will became void if Cersei dies but as long as she lives C will not kneel to Dany.

Totally another thing is that I believe (F?)Aegon to be some kind of Pyrrhus. Or he and Golden Company will gain some victories but they will NOT ever will win game of thrones bc GC will fail again and (F?)Aegon will not gain enough support to secure his crown. So there is a chance that Team Blackfyre(?) will fail even b4 Dany comes to Westeros.

[Firefae]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

snip

 

Do you think House Darry will be on Dany's side? Considering she was raised by Ser Willem Darry?

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Loose Bolt said:

Cersei is now head of house Lannister and she could not be sure about even her own safety under Dany's rule and Dany almost certainly would want to execute a man who killed her father and if Tommen is still alive when Dany returns to Westeros she simply could not allow T to survive. After all to secure her crown she would have to wipe out all male "Baratheons" or take a risk that somebody would rebel against either her or her heirs bc "Baratheons" has a claim to a Iron Throne. Naturally all this will became void if Cersei dies but as long as she lives C will not kneel to Dany.

That would depend on the situation Cersei would be in at that particular time. I'm not thinking about a scenario where either Dany or Cersei have the luxury to make reflected decision. Rather something along the lines of Cersei and the Lannisters facing defeat at the hands of Aegon and his allies, meaning they would ally themselves with anyone to stop that.

Vice versa, Daenerys would want to ally herself with Aegon's enemies rather than his (potential or former) friends.

I'm not saying this is a very likely scenario, but I certainly can see some Lannisters or Westermen joining Daenerys if Aegon were to play a crucial role in the deaths of Tommen and Myrcella.

1 hour ago, Firefae said:

Do you think House Darry will be on Dany's side? Considering she was raised by Ser Willem Darry?

That seems to be rather likely. House Darry seems to be extinct in the male line, but Amerei Frey, Lancel's former bride, is at Darry and has apparently hooked up with Harwyn Plumm who is of Targaryen descent himself. He serves as a commander of the castle's garrison, meaning he is ideally suited to take the Darry levies to Aegon if that's what he wants to do in the future.