The 77-year Cycle of Doom

[Evolett]

 

Some time ago I conducted some research into the cycle of storms that supposedly hit Storm’s End every 77 years:
 

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It is said that every seventy-seven years, a storm greater than all others comes howling down on Storm's end, as if the old gods of sea and sky try once more to blow Durran's seat into the sea. (tWoIaF)

Now, the maesters couldn't confirm such a cycle of storms and neither could I but I reckoned the author mentioned it because there is some recurring cycle going on Westeros or the planet at large. 

As such, I investigated other catastrophic events, did some math and found that there is a definite 77 cycle of destruction affecting all regions of the planet. Beginning with the Doom of Valyria, there is a pattern of destruction, violence, plague or drought every 77 years (give or take a couple of years). In fact, the Red Death that destroyed the diabolical Valyrian slave colony of Gorgossos on the Isle of Tears seventy-seven years after the Doom motivated me to investigate. 
I had not really figured out the why of it and ended up leaving my findings for another day. In fact, I forgot all about it until recently. Anyway, here goes:

The years given are calculated from the Doom + 77 years. Not all dates match 77 years exactly, sometimes there’s a deviation of a year or two and there is one possible exception to the rule but the trend is noticable and significant. 


Year 102 BC - Doom of Valyria

Year 25 BC - The Red Death which destroyed that den of sin and horror on the Isle of Tears (said to have occurred 77 after the Doom)

Year 52 AC - Marriage of Jaehaery's I to Alysanne (in 53 AC) – (possible exception to the rule).

Year 129 AC - Viserys I death followed by the Dance of the Dragons and a couple of years later (132AC - 133AC), the Winter Fever

Year 206 AC - Great Spring Sickness (occurred round about 208 / 209)

Year 283 AC - Sack of King's Landing, end of Targaryen dynasty.
Robert's Rebellion beginning in 282.


Fascinating is that all these disasters hit Valyrians / Targaryens hard. Doom, Red Death on their colony, Dance of the Dragons, Winter Fever and Great Spring Sickness, Shivers, claimed a lot of Targs. Then the downfall of House Targaryen in 283 BC. Almost as though some vengeful gods are at work. 


The only possible exception we have is year 52 AC. Perhaps it makes sense because Jaehaerys and Alysanne were percieved as good sovereigns, Jaehaerys known as a wise old king and as  ‘the Conciliator.’ Jaehaerys and Alysanne however experienced a large number of personal calamities, especially in respect of their children and through F & B we also learn of the “Shivers” (59 AC) that took the first Daenerys’ life. 

I calculated backwards to see if the pattern fits Hardhome which occurred roughly 600 years ago. We don't have any info on exact dates but Hardhome could also fit the pattern. That event would have occurred in approx. 333 BC.


So what phenomenon is this? A comet that brings doom? Halley's comet has an average cycle of 77 years but more correctly returns every 74 - 79 years. However the bleeding star that arrives in 299 AC does not at all fit the pattern, though the comet sighted on the night of Aegon’s conception (281 AC) might.

 

The idea that Justice is Served:
Interesting is a possible link between the 77 year cycle, the 77 dishes served at Joffery’s wedding and the idea that justice is served.
 

Oberyn starts off by mentioning the 77 dishes to be served at the wedding feast and continues by asking when justice will be served. I’m certain this links the 77 dishes with the 77 year cycle of destruction, especially since all that opulence is vastly inappropriate, indeed unjust, in respect of the lack of food and hunger borne by the population of King’s Landing.

 

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Oberyn abruptly changed the subject. “It’s said there are to be seventy-seven dishes served at the king’s wedding feast.”

“Are you hungry, my prince?”

“I have hungered for a long time. Though not for food. Pray tell me, when will the justice be served?”

“Justice.” Yes, that is why he’s here, I should have seen that at once. “You were close to your sister?”

“As children Elia and I were inseparable, much like your own brother and sister.”

Oberyn of course intends to obtain justice by killing Gregor Clegane. One could also say justice is served at the Purple Wedding when Joffrey is poisoned during his wedding feast amidst his 77 dishes.


77 dishes – 77 year cycle – Justice is served every 77 years


Perhaps Planetos is subject to cyclic forces, recurring events that can also be interpreted as history repeating itself. A mysterious force that metes out justice when humans overstep their boundaries? Punishment for pacts not upheld? That a cycle of doom is linked to food is significant methinks. Valyria was the "Land of the Long Summer" and once "the most fertile place in the world." I personally believe the quirky seasons have their origin in warped fertility magic that goes right back to the Dawn Age. Cyclical destruction (which may include exceedingly long winters and long nights) might be the response to this magic. 

What are your thoughts on this?
 

[Nathan Stark]

Nice catch on the 77 year cycle. George R. R. Martin does seem to find 7 a very significant number. I think there is something to your theory. One thing that strikes me as I write this is that "justice" is a human concept, often wrapped up in cycles of vengeance and violence. The Lannisters murder Elia and her children, causing the Martells to plot vengeance against Tywin, which will inevitably lead to the death of more innocent children, Myrcella and Tommen. I don't think Planetos, and whatever warped magic system it operates by, is affected by human moralistic notions of "justice." Rather, I suspect human beings, in pursuing their desire for justice through violence and revenge, have inadvertandly damaged the natural cycle of the world. This leads to a corrupted magical system, and that corrupted system then brings about a damaged magical cycle that manifests through the off whack seasons. 

An interesting point that I believe George is alluding to is that this is a familiar pattern in our own world history. The Napoleonic Wars were the most destructive the European continent faced, until the generation that lived through them began dying off, probably about 70 years later. The WWI generation lost the urgency of preventing war as the last generation to have really experienced it firsthand had largely died off. And so the world turns. Planetos has magic, and it seems like most magic users in ASOIAF intend to use it for violence. Maybe magic in Planetos is contantly causing problems for humans because humans can't resist the temptation to use magic to destroy their enemies. And 77 years on, the generation of people who know better die off, leaving a new generation to make the same horrible mistakes. 

This is a long winded way of saying that humans corrupted the magic cycle, not that the cycle itself is inherently bad. Similar perhaps to how we humans on Earth have ravaged the natural climate through our own hubris and arrogance, causing the natural world to become less and less hospitable. Planetos is basically out of whack because there aren't enough people like Ned or Elaria Sand. 

That's my thinking, anyway. I'm spitballing here. A 77 year magic cycle of starvation and war seems more likely a result of human moral notions that are screwed up.

[chrisdaw]

The 77 years a big storm is coming to Storm's End, like man standing defiant in the face of angry gods stories is about Euron. The Stone Beast taking wing from a tower is the same event as Euron leaping from a great tower to fly and the 77 year storm - they're all the one thing. The tower is Storm's End and Euron becoming the Stone Beast is a story of a mere mortal man ascending to godhood, to the chagrin of the old gods.

Euron is the storm.

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Better to be scorned by Balon the Brave than beloved of Euron Crow's Eye. And if age and grief had turned Balon bitter with the years, they had also made him more determined than any man alive. He was born a lord's son and died a king, murdered by a jealous god, Aeron thought, and now the storm is coming, a storm such as these isles have never known.

...

Aeron tugged his beard, and thought. I have seen the storm, and its name is Euron Crow's Eye. "For now, send only silence," he told the lord. "I must pray on this."

...

Euron shrugged. "I had heard the Storm God swept Balon to his death.

...

"EURON! EURON! EURON!" The cry swelled, became a roar. "EURON! EURON! CROW'S EYE! EURON KING!" It rolled up Nagga's hill, like the Storm God rattling the clouds. "EURON! EURON! EURON! EURON! EURON! EURON!"

...

A smile played across Euron's blue lips. "I am the storm, my lord. The first storm, and the last.

 

The last storm, the storm's end.

[Evolett]

21 hours ago, Nathan Stark said:

One thing that strikes me as I write this is that "justice" is a human concept, often wrapped up in cycles of vengeance and violence. The Lannisters murder Elia and her children, causing the Martells to plot vengeance against Tywin, which will inevitably lead to the death of more innocent children, Myrcella and Tommen. I don't think Planetos, and whatever warped magic system it operates by, is affected by human moralistic notions of "justice." Rather, I suspect human beings, in pursuing their desire for justice through violence and revenge, have inadvertandly damaged the natural cycle of the world. This leads to a corrupted magical system, and that corrupted system then brings about a damaged magical cycle that manifests through the off whack seasons. 

Yes, this is very plausible and related to the cycles of the universe which of course include the rising and setting of the sun, waxing and waning of the moon, birth and death and the seasons of the year. Time is cyclical and also encompasses history, though man tends to perceive time as linear and expresses it in terms of progress or decline projected on a linear scale. In truth, times of war or crisis, peace and prosperity moving in regular cycles as well. Bloodraven’s view on the subject sums this up with the river as a metaphor for time, oak and acorn the metaphorical cycle:

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For men, time is a river. We are trapped in its flow, hurtling from past to present, always in the same direction. The lives of trees are different. They root and grow and die in one place, and that river does not move them. The oak is the acorn, the acorn is the oak.

Perhaps we can link this to the dry unfruitful desert that is Dorne as a symbolic representation of a summer season gone awry, unhinged from its natural cycle because of Oberyn’s and Dorne’s thirst for revenge. Similar logic can be applied to the Land of Always Winter and to the Others, though the reason for their vengeful mood is unknown to us.
The food that Oberyn rejects in favour of justice (justice is death) is of course a produce of the long summer of Robert’s reign – again a link to the seasons.

 

19 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

The 77 years a big storm is coming to Storm's End, like man standing defiant in the face of angry gods stories is about Euron.

Euron claiming to be the first and last Storm certainly links him to the 77 year cycle even though he does not actually fit into the time frame (side note: I think there is another smaller but significant cycle that bridges the gap between 283 AC and the present). By naming himself the "storm" he also takes on the role of the Storm God who opposes the Drowned God in Ironborn belief. Perhaps the legend of the Grey King will be useful in figuring out a way Euron might be defeated – recall the Grey King obtained fire by tricking the Storm God to set fire to a tree….

But Euron isn’t the only “storm” awaiting Westeros. There is Dany who carries the title “Stormborn” who will bring a storm of fire, and the Others with their weather magic who can conjure up mists and probably harsh winter storms as well.