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Realistically, what would have happened if Renly had killed Stannis at Storm’s End?


Canon Claude

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55 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

yes but this is cersei, she will burn the city rather than give it, killing Tyrion and half the Tyrell army is a huge bonus in her eyes

 

only the clansman are actually loyalt to him personally, he can't stop her particularly as the Pyromancers want to use the substance

But they cant as tyrion has them working for him not cersei plus  he has the goldcloaks and bronns mercs all on his side!

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1 minute ago, astarkchoice said:

But they cant as tyrion has them working for him not cersei plus  he has the goldcloaks and bronns mercs all on his side!

You think they will refuse the Queen with multiple kingsguards and her own crop of lannister men and crownlanders right there to start cutting up heads

Tyrion wasn't stopping her from rounding her scores of noblewomen including their most valuable hostage and telling them they were going to be beheaded to keep them away from Stannis.

Hes not stopping her from executing pyromancers given that she ordered them to make the substance then told Tyrion about it.

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5 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

You think they will refuse the Queen with multiple kingsguards and her own crop of lannister men and crownlanders right there to start cutting up heads

Tyrion wasn't stopping her from rounding her scores of noblewomen including their most valuable hostage and telling them they were going to be beheaded to keep them away from Stannis.

Hes not stopping her from executing pyromancers given that she ordered them to make the substance then told Tyrion about it.

Tyrion was busy at the time with the defence of the city but the pyromancers were in his pocket by that stage...once she told him and he visted them they where his not hers anymore..... and he had almost all the known wildfire out at sea

 

From inside the keep shes commanding almost no one the rest are at battle and if she causes too much of a fuss bronns boys or his goldcloaks would be sent to ensure shes taken somewhere for 'safe keeping'

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2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Tyrion was busy at the time with the defence of the city but the pyromancers were in his pocket by that stage...once she told him and he visted them they where his not hers anymore..... and he had almost all the known wildfire out at sea

 

From inside the keep shes commanding almost no one the rest are at battle and if she causes too much of a fuss bronns boys or his goldcloaks would be sent to ensure shes taken somewhere for 'safe keeping'

Wasn’t this all a reaction to Stannis winning, though? Wouldn’t Tyrion have altered his plans if he heard that Renly had won?

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4 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Tyrion was busy at the time with the defence of the city but the pyromancers were in his pocket by that stage...once she told him and he visted them they where his not hers anymore..... and he had almost all the known wildfire out at sea

 

From inside the keep shes commanding almost no one the rest are at battle and if she causes too much of a fuss bronns boys or his goldcloaks would be sent to ensure shes taken somewhere for 'safe keeping'

like she did when he ordered the king to his room and Tyrion could do nothing to stop it

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7 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Wasn’t this all a reaction to Stannis winning, though? Wouldn’t Tyrion have altered his plans if he heard that Renly had won?

Hed have still probably tried a lot of the same stuff maybe focused the wildfire for the kingswood  instead of blackwater as renly wouldnt be comming by sea ...he didnt want it all spread around the city or being fired by catapault to avoid accidents 

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18 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

like she did when he ordered the king to his room and Tyrion could do nothing to stop it

Cersei had her merc kettleback drag him to the keep before he could stop it....of it came.down to an actual.clash of authority though id very much doubt her kettlebacks would last long vs bronn and his lads

 

Bear in mind too that if renly is comming by land and not sea like stannis did its possible tyrion has some of his vale clan too

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1 minute ago, astarkchoice said:

Cersei had her merc kettleback drag him to the keep before he could stop it....of it came.down to an actual.clash of authority though id very much doubt her kettlebacks would last long vs bronn and his lads

 

Bear in mind too that if renly is comming by land and not sea like stannis did its possible tyrion has some of his vale clan too

its a good example of the fact that Cersei could still do what she really wanted even when Tyrion knew it was a stupid idea and she knew about the wildfire before he did, in fact she might know theres a second stock in the city

do we know when cersei found out what Aerys tried to do?

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20 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

its a good example of the fact that Cersei could still do what she really wanted even when Tyrion knew it was a stupid idea and she knew about the wildfire before he did, in fact she might know theres a second stock in the city

do we know when cersei found out what Aerys tried to do?

Not really he pyromancers leaders are with tyrion(both with him physicaly to see their work and hes taken over from.cersei as the one they take orders from)  in fact its a.show that bar one or 2 of the kingsguard and her kettlebacks thats all she has ....if she started to do something prolonged  that hurt the defence of the cith shed have been shut down easily

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11 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Not really he pyromancers leaders are with tyrion(both with him physicaly to see their work and hes taken over from.cersei as the one they take orders from)  in fact its a.show that bar one or 2 of the kingsguard and her kettlebacks thats all she has ....if she started to do something prolonged  that hurt the defence of the cith shed have been shut down easily

before she could suceed, i have my doubts about that given that what she needs is already in place, she only needs one person to get through and ignite the wildfire, in my mind tyrion gets blndsided by cersei (which he does several times) because shes crazy and he isn't, Tyrion rejects stupid ideas (like wildfire catapults) and underestimates her willingness to burn it all down rather than let someone defeat her.

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1 hour ago, Alden Rothack said:

before she could suceed, i have my doubts about that given that what she needs is already in place, she only needs one person to get through and ignite the wildfire, in my mind tyrion gets blndsided by cersei (which he does several times) because shes crazy and he isn't, Tyrion rejects stupid ideas (like wildfire catapults) and underestimates her willingness to burn it all down rather than let someone defeat her.

That assumes she even knows where there is any wildfire left!  the guild was awnsering to tyrion they made sure they sent all theyd found out to burn stannis, jamie murdered all the old guard whod buried staches so she has no way of knowing where they are

Even then  the few servants she has left (even if they could get near any wildfire ) are self serving ,theyd never endanger themselves to carry out her suicide plan

Cersei is dumb , sociopathic , in denial about her aging and utterly self absorbed as we see in her fun pov chapters...she may be willing to try and burn it all down but those left at that stage  who follow her wont(kettlebacks) .....no one is thats good a lay!

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3 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

That assumes she even knows where there is any wildfire left!  the guild was awnsering to tyrion they made sure they sent all theyd found out to burn stannis, jamie murdered all the old guard whod buried staches so she has no way of knowing where they are

Even then  the few servants she has left (even if they could get near any wildfire ) are self serving ,theyd never endanger themselves to carry out her suicide plan

Cersei is dumb , sociopathic , in denial about her aging and utterly self absorbed as we see in her fun pov chapters...she may be willing to try and burn it all down but those left at that stage  who follow her wont(kettlebacks) .....no one is thats good a lay!

the kettleblacks are already risking a horrible death, they absolutely would do as she orders no matter what

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Well, he marches on KL. With Tarly as commander he probably crosses the Blackwater further West and from the South thus making Tyrion's plan less efficient. Renly doesn't kill Cersei and Joff, I assume he tries to bargain with Tywin that they live but relinquish claims to the throne (he will also keep quite on the incest. Or perhaps he does kill Joff to appease Rob who will concede at some point. I can see some deal where Tywin gets Jaime and Cersei, Jaime becomes the heir again, Rob gets Ice and Sansa. And Renly sits the throne.

That would be a very frail peace though. Legitimizing Renly's reign would mean any future succession would just be in doubt, and some combination of powers can certainly take on the Tyrells and Baratheons. Within several years the realm will disintegrate into separate kingdoms until Danny comes

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Stannis dies then the Lannisters make peace with Robb even if it means letting the North have the Riverlands and the Golden Tooth, Tywin them marches to Kingslanding while seeking to get Balon and Doran on side no matter he has to give them in return.

Balon is a moron so he says no, Doran wants Tywin slow roasted so he says no, Littlefinger tries but fails to get the Vale to back Tywin so he gets them to back Robb instead figuring that hiding in the Aerie beats getting between Tywin and Olenna Tyrell

the Lannisters are defeated but destroy half the Tyrell army with Wildfire

Renly rules for several years then the Dragon Queen arrives and kills him, takes over the south with Edric as Lord of the Stormlands, Myrcella as Lady of Casterly Rock and Asha as Lady of the Isles.

Danerys flies north when the white walkers invade and dies along with two of her dragons in the battle at Winterfell.

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