Ned stark cold turkey

[frenin]

9 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

He said this at the start of ADWD, did he know it at the beginning of ACOK, after sequestering himself away for months?

The quote is from ACOK.

 

9 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Anyways, he didn't say that Robert was definitely murdered, that's what he said:

'She may have murdered him as well, as she murdered Jon Arryn and Ned Stark.'

By a boar?

He believes Robert's death was foul play.

 

12 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Robert left days after Jon's death to Winterfell and we are told Stannis left immediately afterwards.

That is not hasty.

 

13 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Again, this is not the action of someone who wants his brother dead and himself King. He know that the man who controls Jon Arryn's son controls the Vale, he definitely would have tried to stop this. We know how far Stannis is willing to go when he wants to be King in ACOK, but we see none of this in AGOT.

?? How so?

Stannis did not press the matter because Robert's mind was made and Stannis has never made him change his opinion about something, far the contrary.

Not that it mattered anyway because even Stannis understood the boy was far from their reach anyway and Lysa would not return him for the time being. It was a waste of time and resources, this has nothing to do with "him  acting like he wants or doesn't want his brother dead and himself king", it is simply a dead end.

 

 

18 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

They definitely knew about Robert's first bastard in the Vale, and possibly more (wasn't Jon Arryn 'tasked' with taking care of Robert's bastards?).

Jon Arryn def did, Stannis not so much iirc.

 

19 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

He could have told Tobbho Mott that Gendry in danger in KL and offered him to go to Dragonstone

Gendry is almost adult anyway, it fall to him.

Besides the obvious fact that Stannis always hoped to get Edric, since he was the acknowledged son.

 

20 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

and could have made a deal with Barra's mother, as well.

Unlikely and unnecesary.

1. Barra's mother was in love with Robert and wanted to keep seeing him, not part with him.
2. Barra wasn't even a year old, she is inmaterial to prove any kind of resemblancce.

 

22 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Again, he didn't do any of this, even though this would help him immensely if he wants to be King. 

It would not but that is another matter.

 

23 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

This wasn't an assassination attempt.

It did not have to be, it completely clashed with Ned's personality, Cat herself instinctively knew Ned had refused Renly.

 

Quote

 "On the night of Robert's death, I offered your husband a hundred swords and urged him to take Joffrey into his power. Had he listened, he would be regent today, and there would have been no need for me to claim the throne."
"Ned refused you." She did not have to be told.
"He had sworn to protect Robert's children," Renly said. "I lacked the strength to act alone, so when Lord Eddard turned me away, I had no choice but to flee. Had I stayed, I knew the queen would see to it that I did not long outlive my brother."

Ned would not have taken that order from anyone, Stannis included, king or king.

 

 

28 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Stannis would explain to him that Janos Slynt won't ever be loyal to him and he shouldn't even try; and explain to him that they cannot end this without bloodshed, then recommend to follow Renly's plan (if he sees it viable) or flee. 

Ned did not refuse to follow Renly because he needed a strong man to make sense to him...

 

30 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

We know that Renly and his friends managed to flee

Yes, they would.

Ned could barely walk properly and the city was full of spies with vested interest in preventing Stannis from being king and allowing Joffrey to ascend. Ned could never move his daughter and his crippled ass fast enough to avoid being caught.

[csuszka1948]

9 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Even if it is perfectly reasonable, it is still Stannis' duty to inform the King of his suspicions, regardless of how difficult it would be or that he thought Robert wouldn't listen. That's just the way it seems to work. I don't think Stannis would look kindly on someone who didn't inform him in a similar situation, no matter their excuses. Stannis failing to do his duty to the Rightful King then going on about how everyone should do their duty to the Rightful King (him) makes him look like a massive hypocrite.

 

 

Do you think that it would have been Ned's duty to inform Robert of his suspicion that the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn to conceal something as soon as he has received the letter from Lysa? Or his suspicion that the Lannisters tried to kill Bran? He does his investigation behind the King's back, and only wants to present it to him when he has sufficient evidence, I would say that is his duty. 

The evidence that Stannis has isn't sufficient to convince Robert - all he knows that a few of Robert's bastards almost exactly look like Robert and that he and Jon Arryn were planning to share their findings before Jon Arryn quickly died. The problem is that the second piece of evidence (that he investigated with Jon and planned to share their findings) is something only Stannis knows to be true, and it is very unlikely that Robert will believe it.  After all, he seemed to favour the Lannisters, planning to give Jon Arryn's son to Tywin to fostering and name Jaime the Warden of the West despite the plan of Jon Arryn to foster his son in Dragonstone. 

So no, Stannis didn't fail his duty by not telling his suspicions to Robert. He failed his duty by retreating to Dragonstone instead of continuing his investigation further and sharing his suspicions with someone else (Selyse, Cressen, Renly) in case he dies. This is the kind of duty Stannis expects from others, after all - they should be ready to die for him. Stannis at this point wasn't dutiful enough to die for Robert.

 

[Craving Peaches]

5 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Do you think that it would have been Ned's duty to inform Robert of his suspicion that the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn to conceal something as soon as he has received the letter from Lysa? Or his suspicion that the Lannisters tried to kill Bran?

No because those are not threats to Robert's life. Unless Robert specifically asked of course.

5 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

This is the kind of duty Stannis expects from others, after all - they should be ready to die for him. Stannis at this point wasn't dutiful enough to die for Robert.

So Stannis is a hypocrite.

5 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

The evidence that Stannis has isn't sufficient to convince Robert

That doesn't matter. He still has a duty to tell Robert of his suspicions.

[csuszka1948]

Ned refused Renly's plan because he tried to find a plan which avoid bloodshed. That's why he went to Petyr Baelish - he wanted to take the children into custody without blooshed.

If it was made clear to him that the City Watch won't be loyal to him and Stannis, then he would have likely accepted that bloodshed is necessary to avoid a full-scale war. After all, we know that he seriously contemplated this after refusing Renly, but saw another option by bribing the City Watch. 

If he didn't accept it, then he would have likely fled. Again, I do not see how can the Lannisters stop the Hand of the King from leaving the city until the King is alive.  

[frenin]

30 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

If it was made clear to him that the City Watch won't be loyal to him and Stannis, then he would have likely accepted that bloodshed is necessary to avoid a full-scale war. After all, we know that he seriously contemplated this after refusing Renly, but saw another option by bribing the City Watch. 

Ned can be lied to, at the end of the day Cat told him to trust his baby bro Petyr and he promised to deliver the City Watch on Cat's name.

 

31 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

If he didn't accept it, then he would have likely fled. Again, I do not see how can the Lannisters stop the Hand of the King from leaving the city until the King is alive.  

The King is dying and the dynamics thus change.

In his state Ned is really not moving.

[astarkchoice]

59 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

No because those are not threats to Robert's life. Unless Robert specifically asked of course.

So Stannis is a hypocrite.

That doesn't matter. He still has a duty to tell Robert of his suspicions.

Id disagree there..theres duty and theres stupidity. Jon arryns death mean its not safe but robert is perfectly safe in ignorance. Robert naming him hand would have given him the clout to continue investigating a good bit more  safely and meant robert trusted him more than he thought..but that disnt happen.

Stannis trying to tell robert now will possibly get him killed/punched by his own brother in a fit of rage or tossed in a jail cell where the lannisters may reach out and end him or at bare minimum laughed out of court and killed later.

His actions make more sense ,  goes to dragonstone to muster the island and surrounding rocks meagre strength for possible war . From there hes plenty of time to then round up edric storm, myra stone , gendry and  maybe if time even let lil bara grow a bit or find others.

He (specualtion) also possibly tried to reach out to ned when he was in KL ,probably subtle at first ie we need to talk etc but as we know all ravens to and from KL go through pycelle thus wil go missing! As we know why ned was never able to do the same...pycelle is a key overlooked asset in stopping these 2 potential allies working together

Things move at breakneck speed from there and roberts dead then ned!

 

[frenin]

5 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

He (specualtion) also possibly tried to reach out to ned when he was in KL ,probably subtle at first ie we need to talk etc but as we know all ravens to and from KL go through pycelle thus wil go missing! As we know why ned was never able to do the same...pycelle is a key overlooked asset in stopping these 2 potential allies working together

No he did not.

There's no need to speculate things, he didn't try, he was sulking.

If he wanted to talk to Ned, he'd go right to Winterfell when Robert parted. He'd arrived months before the royal procession made it north, let alone Winterfell. And the North was completely free of spies.

About duty and stupidity... Stannis has never made a difference from either when it's to his benefit, it seems a problem when it is to his detriment tho.

8 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

His actions make more sense ,  goes to dragonstone to muster the island and surrounding rocks meagre strength for possible war

Which could only possibly happen with Robert dead.

Unless ofc Stannis was aware of the possible Dothraki invasion and was trying to cut them off from the Narrow Sea!

 

[astarkchoice]

18 minutes ago, frenin said:

No he did not.

There's no need to speculate things, he didn't try, he was sulking.

If he wanted to talk to Ned, he'd go right to Winterfell when Robert parted. He'd arrived months before the royal procession made it north, let alone Winterfell. And the North was completely free of spies.

About duty and stupidity... Stannis has never made a difference from either when it's to his benefit, it seems a problem when it is to his detriment tho.

Which could only possibly happen with Robert dead.

Unless ofc Stannis was aware of the possible Dothraki invasion and was trying to cut them off from the Narrow Sea!

 

We dont know..we only know neds letters didnt get out, that said he may  have held off til he had a stronger base and more living black haired evidence before reaching out to eddard and/or robert.

Going to winterfell solves nothing and still takes weeks , if robert doesnt trust him n ed sure as hell doesnt

No robert doesnt need to die he could be killed and need avenging yes  buf he could find out and need  his brothers backing too or even be captured as hes surrounded by lannisters and need rescued.

Either way If war comes stannis expects the stormlands (and renly) to back him.and/or robert  as will the riverlands , vale and north ,.now dorne and the ironislands are a ? And the reach is possibly hostile and the grasping tyrells could  potentialy join the westerlands (whos unlimited gold could bring 10s of thousands of essosi sellswords  into the mix of it comes to a total war) thus it makes sense for him to muster what little strength his own little fiefdom can field to deal with worst case scenarios !!! 

[frenin]

2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

We dont know..we only know neds letters didnt get out,

Stannis never ever implies that he tried to reach Eddard in any capacity.

 

2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

that said he may  have held off til he had a stronger base and more living black haired evidence before reaching out to eddard and/or robert.

How was he going to do that from Dragonstone?

 

3 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Going to winterfell solves nothing and still takes weeks

Aren't you the one saying that he tried to reach out Ned by evil spies got in the way?

Evil spies are not a thing far in Winterfell. Sure it takes weeks, but the matter is rather urgent now is it?

 

4 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

if robert doesnt trust him n ed sure as hell doesnt

Based on...

 

5 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

buf he could find out and need  his brothers backing too or even be captured as hes surrounded by lannisters and need rescued.

Those are not wars in which he needs Stannis that much now are they? As he'd have most of the Realm on his side on way or the other.

But then again, even in that scenario you're already assuming Stannis may presume Robert was going to be in danger and washed his hands clean.

 

17 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

And the reach is possibly hostile and the grasping tyrells could  potentialy join the westerlands

The Reach were colluding with Renly and Stannis knew that well enough.

He also was well aware of his relationship with Loras and the Tyrells, that was not happening. Mace is ambitious but he is not an idiot, marrying his daughter to Robert and jumping on Tywin is a far better deal than fighting half the Realm with no certainty of victory or even if most of his vassals (Renly and Robert have plenty of friends in the Reach) will support him in treason.

 

18 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

whos unlimited gold could bring 10s of thousands of essosi sellswords  into the mix of it comes to a total war)

You always seem to forget that the Lannisters navy is tiny compared to that of the Crown, Arbor and Ironborn.

No navy, no way to cross the Narrow Sea.

[csuszka1948]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Ned can be lied to, at the end of the day Cat told him to trust his baby bro Petyr and he promised to deliver the City Watch on Cat's name.

 

Yes, he can be lied to, but the difference is that Ned's primary confidant would have been Stannis - the next King - and not LF.

If Ned comes up with the idea of bribing the City Watch, Stannis would have told him that Janos Slynt expects punishment if he becomes King so it's better not trying and Ned would have believed him. 

I also disagree with the idea that Ned fundamentally disagrees with bloodshed. He just tries to avoid it all costs, clinging to other options until it is no longer possible. If he realised that the City Watch won't be loyal to him, he would have reconsidered Renly's idea - we see him contemplating that maybe he should have accepted his offer in his chapter, just shuts it down in his mind by inviting LF. Similarly, if he managed to take King's Landing before Tywin during the Rebellion, he would have tried to secure the royal family - yes, he would have tried to do it peacefully at first, but if he had no other choice he would to it forcefully (but without killing the children). 

1 hour ago, frenin said:

 

The King is dying and the dynamics thus change.

In his state Ned is really not moving.

 

It takes time for the King to die. No one can stop Ned from fleeing during the night (especially because no one expects him to flee) and taking a ship to Dragonstone and if Ned tells Ser Barristan to guard the King until he lives then Cersei cannot smother him with pillows. His daughters can definitely flee freely if Sansa doesn't snitch.

[frenin]

16 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, he can be lied to, but the difference is that Ned's primary confidant would have been Stannis - the next King - and not LF.

It would have been whoever, Cat told him to trust LF, so his trust would still be on her and her choices.

 

17 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

If Ned comes up with the idea of bribing the City Watch, Stannis would have told him that Janos Slynt expects punishment if he becomes King so it's better not trying and Ned would have believed him. 

Why would he tell him that? That is not true.

 

18 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

I also disagree with the idea that Ned fundamentally disagrees with bloodshed. He just tries to avoid it all costs, clinging to other options until it is no longer possible. If he realised that the City Watch won't be loyal to him, he would have reconsidered Renly's idea - we see him contemplating that maybe he should have accepted his offer in his chapter, just shuts it down in his mind by inviting LF. Similarly, if he managed to take King's Landing before Tywin during the Rebellion, he would have tried to secure the royal family - yes, he would have tried to do it peacefully at first, but if he had no other choice he would to it forcefully (but without killing the children). 

Ned fundamentally disagrees with bloodshed of children, this is a fact. Ned wondering if he may have been wrong to then convince himself just adds to it.

Ned would not willingly partke in a coup that could end with the children being harmed, that is why he told Cersei before he went to Robert.

 

21 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

No one can stop Ned from fleeing during the night (especially because no one expects him to flee) and taking a ship to Dragonstone

I'm pretty sure guards can stop him from fleeing during the night.

 

22 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

and if Ned tells Ser Barristan to guard the King until he lives then Cersei cannot smother him with pillows.

Does not need to, if the king is dying then his authority is already waning.

[csuszka1948]

Fenrin, are you saying that Stannis was taking the royal fleet and sulking in Dragonstone, feeling slighted over not being named Hand or that he was retreating to Dragonstone knowing that his brother is in danger and waiting for him to die?

Because I can accept the first (even if I think that was not the only factor why he fled), but the second just doesn't make sense to me and isn't consistent with Stannis' character.

If he really was preparing for Robert's death, then he would have a plan ready (probably expecting Renly and Ned to ALSO die just like Jon Arryn did), send out the letters immediately after the news of Robert's death and Ned's imprisonment reaches him and would take a visit to Storm's End for Edric Storm (plus try to collect additional evidence beforehand, like I mentioned the other bastards). Instead, we see him send Davos to visit individual Stormlords and only openly declare after Renly and Robb. He seems to be blindsided.

 

But again, I think the best explanation is the Doylist one. I do not think George had a clear character for Stannis in mind when he wrote AGOT. He just needed him out of the picture for the first book so that the plotlines of Ned's investigation and Robb's ascension as King of the North work.

 

[csuszka1948]

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

It would have been whoever, Cat told him to trust LF, so his trust would still be on her and her choices.

 

This is ridiculous. Ned knows that Stannis worked together with his foster-father, Jon Arryn to discover the incest, he would trust him over LF no matter what Cat tells him (and Cat didn't tell him anything about Stannis).

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

Why would he tell him that? That is not true.

 

That is true. Janos Slynt knew that Stannis and Jon Arryn thinks him corrupt, and Stannis would never trust him. 

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

Ned fundamentally disagrees with bloodshed of children, this is a fact. Ned wondering if he may have been wrong to then convince himself just adds to it.

Ned would not willingly partke in a coup that could end with the children being harmed, that is why he told Cersei before he went to Robert.

 

Ned told Cersei because he believed that Robert would kill the children. But what if Stannis promises he won't harm the children (that is far from certain knowing Stannis, but that would be Ned's price)?

We actually know that he can go along with arresting children if he sees no other option, after all he told the City Watch to seize Cersei and her children after Cersei ripped apart his 'paper shield'.

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

I'm pretty sure guards can stop him from fleeing during the night.

 

Does not need to, if the king is dying then his authority is already waning.

 

Then why didn't Cersei arrest Ned and Renly during the dead of the night? A dying King has some authority, Aegon IV managed to legitimize his bastards in such conditions, and seizing his Hand would be very difficult to achieve, the City Watch wouldn't be unified over such course of action (we know it took LF and Janos Slynt time to arrange everything and without Sansa snitching the girls would have still likely fled on the ship).

[astarkchoice]

13 minutes ago, frenin said:

Stannis never ever implies that he tried to reach Eddard in any capacity.

 

How was he going to do that from Dragonstone?

 

Aren't you the one saying that he tried to reach out Ned by evil spies got in the way?

Evil spies are not a thing far in Winterfell. Sure it takes weeks, but the matter is rather urgent now is it?

 

Based on...

 

Those are not wars in which he needs Stannis that much now are they? As he'd have most of the Realm on his side on way or the other.

But then again, even in that scenario you're already assuming Stannis may presume Robert was going to be in danger and washed his hands clean.

 

The Reach were colluding with Renly and Stannis knew that well enough.

He also was well aware of his relationship with Loras and the Tyrells, that was not happening. Mace is ambitious but he is not an idiot, marrying his daughter to Robert and jumping on Tywin is a far better deal than fighting half the Realm with no certainty of victory or even if most of his vassals (Renly and Robert have plenty of friends in the Reach) will support him in treason.

 

You always seem to forget that the Lannisters navy is tiny compared to that of the Crown, Arbor and Ironborn.

No navy, no way to cross the Narrow Sea.

Fair enough

 

From dragonstone he can build strength for war but also is free to comvince edrix storm to come with him  , then myra stone and then any others before he goes to kl and maybe adds gendry and barra to his little show and tell entourage 

 

Nope its not urgent as ned and robert arent in danger as they dont know

 

He respectd ned but theres 0 proof stannis and ned were good buddies

Nope thats renly and loras little plan stannis was never in on it unless you have a quote showing otherwise. The danger frlm ghe reach is the very reason stannis must have a florent bride and the reason he sits uneasy at possible traitors foe the targs to reach (pun intended) out to...the region is a powerhouse basicaly

 

Its tiny yes but if word gets out and they hold KL they can get quite a merc force across the sea 

[frenin]

12 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Fenrin, are you saying that Stannis was taking the royal fleet and sulking in Dragonstone, feeling slighted over not being named Hand or that he was retreating to Dragonstone knowing that his brother is in danger and waiting for him to die?

Both.

12 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Because I can accept the first (even if I think that was not the only factor why he fled), but the second just doesn't make sense to me and isn't consistent with Stannis' character.

Yeah, he'd never try to end a relative.

 

12 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

(probably expecting Renly and Ned to ALSO die just like Jon Arryn did)

Why?

Stannis tries to test the waters after he hears about his brother's dead, specifically he tries to get the Stormlords on so he can launch his bid, the Stormlords however reject him and Robb and Renly steal his thunder and then that's it.

He acted too cautiously and failed, it's dumb but not breaking inmersion dumb. 

 

5 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

This is ridiculous. Ned knows that Stannis worked together with his foster-father, Jon Arryn to discover the incest, he would trust him over LF no matter what Cat tells him (and Cat didn't tell him anything about Stannis).

He definitely knows Stannis but that's about it. The idea that he'd trust Stannis no matter what his wife told him is just laughable.

 

7 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

That is true. Janos Slynt knew that Stannis and Jon Arryn thinks him corrupt, and Stannis would never trust him. 

Jon Arryn sure, Stannis? I doubt he knew that.

 

9 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

But what if Stannis promises he won't harm the children (that is far from certain knowing Stannis, but that would be Ned's price)?

We actually know that he can go along with arresting children if he sees no other option, after all he told the City Watch to seize Cersei and her children after Cersei ripped apart his 'paper shield'.

He cannot promise that unless they have overwhelming force to discourage resistance... which they do not.

 

10 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Then why didn't Cersei arrest Ned and Renly during the dead of the night?

She was also trying to gather support, Renly had plenty of friends in the city (unlike Ned).

 

8 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

From dragonstone he can build strength for war but also is free to comvince edrix storm to come with him  , then myra stone and then any others before he goes to kl and maybe adds gendry and barra to his little show and tell entourage 

Why would Edric's tutors allow such thing? Edric is under Renly's care, it'd have to go through him.

Does Stannis know where in the Vale she is? Or who she is?

 

10 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Nope its not urgent as ned and robert arent in danger as they dont know

So you believe that Stannis is mustering his forces because Robert may soon enough be at war with the Lannisters (def he is not killed) but it is not urgent and they are not in danger...

 

11 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

He respectd ned but theres 0 proof stannis and ned were good buddies

You do not have to be good buddies with someone to believe them, especially if they present you a tale against people you hate, and Ned's and the Lannisters' bad blood was hardly a secret in court.

 

13 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Nope thats renly and loras little plan stannis was never in on it unless you have a quote showing otherwise.

On it? No. Aware of it? Yes, he was.

 

Quote

"We both know your wedding was a mummer's farce. A year ago you were scheming to make the girl one of Robert's whores."
"A year ago I was scheming to make the girl Robert's queen," Renly said, "but what does it matter? The boar got Robert and I got Margaery. You'll be pleased to know she came to me a maid."

 

14 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

The danger frlm ghe reach is the very reason stannis must have a florent bride and the reason he sits uneasy at possible traitors foe the targs to reach (pun intended) out to...the region is a powerhouse basicaly

The Reach is troublesome because of its Targaryen loyalties, not because of its Lannister sympathies.

 

15 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Its tiny yes but if word gets out and they hold KL they can get quite a merc force across the sea 

They cannot as most of the Royal Fleet is under Stannis's command, they'd need to drive Stannis's out of the sea first for that to happen. Which is not likely.

 

Anyway, been fun but...

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

 

-Why would Edric's tutors allow such thing? Edric is under Renly's care, it'd have to go through him.

-Does Stannis know where in the Vale she is? Or who she is?

 

So you believe that Stannis is mustering his forces because Robert may soon enough be at war with the Lannisters (def he is not killed) but it is not urgent and they are not in danger...

 

You do not have to be good buddies with someone to believe them, especially if they present you a tale against people you hate, and Ned's and the Lannisters' bad blood was hardly a secret in court.

 

On it? No. Aware of it? Yes, he was.

 

 

The Reach is troublesome because of its Targaryen loyalties, not because of its Lannister sympathies.

 

They cannot as most of the Royal Fleet is under Stannis's command, they'd need to drive Stannis's out of the sea first for that to happen. Which is not likely.

 

Anyway, been fun but...

-Yes and as we know stsnnis expected his little brother to defer to him if push camm to shove

 

-Yes they talk of robert doting on her for a while as he did with many of his bastards. She was wrll enough known that lyanna stark was wary of talking robert as husband

-nope he was still mustering his forces and hiring sellswords and sellsails as we well know , wasnt urgent as again ned and robert arent in danger until they know cerseis secret and stannis will tell them when hes ready  . His florent relatives hadnt even joined his forces yet either  (they do after renly is shanked)

-neds bad blood with lannisters doesnt become known until the incident on the road and no neds as likely  to reject it as self serving and dishonourable as not. Again stannis needs time to prepare evidence, if he can follow up the jon arryn murder too  when the dust settles a bit that might give his claim more meat.

 

-fair enough then he knew of renly and margerys plot 

-the reach is troublesome because its got powerhungry grasping leaders and is insanely powerful compared to any other region, its basicaly 2-3 of the other kingdoms 

 

About 100 ships of the royal fleet are at stannis command but about 50+ at KL and it would take time to blockade  any merc forces comming in

 

Cool thats what the forums are for alwsys cool.to talk and debate various points on our fav stories while grmm keeps us waiting

 

 

 

[csuszka1948]

Anyway, I am just reiterating my main points again:

1) We can only say that Robert was in danger with the benefit of hindsight. Stannis wasn't aware that the secret was 'out in the open' - as far as he knew, only he and Jon Arryn was aware of it and Jon was murdered, this was the end of the story - and he couldn't have foreseen in any way that Ned Stark would start investigating Jon Arryn's death.

He had no reason to think that anyone would tell Robert the truth about the incest soon, and he also despised Robert and thought him weak to Lannister manipulation - after all, he agreed to let Tywin foster Sweetrobin and to name Jaime Warden of the East (both titles which should have gone to Stannis if Robert honored his foster father's memory). Why would he think that the Lannister want him dead so soon, before Joffrey becomes an adult where they could avoid the problem with regency?

GRRM also didn't say that 'Stannis stayed in Dragonstone to prepare and wait until a war breaks out', but that Stannis stayed in Dragonstone because 1) he didn't have a strong enough base of power (again, not something you do if you want to become King - then you want to build that base of power) and 2) he wasn't considering the threat to Robert that much (wasn't taking it seriously) because they weren't close - on the other hand, he was considering the threat to himself much more.

 

2) Stannis doesn't say with certainty Robert was killed by the Lannisters, he says 'he may have been murdered, just like Jon Arryn and Ned Stark'. He knows how well the Lannisters can murder someone without leaving any trace (Jon Arryn) and that Ned Stark decided to 'usurp the throne' for some reason after Robert died, is it a stretch to assume that the Lannisters MAY played a role in his brother's death (which may have been just 'helping him along' by pressing the pillow, Stannis wasn't there)?

 

3) It's a stupid decision to not to declare soon - Stannis shouldn't be unhesitant to act if he prepared for Robert's death, because he is not in danger in Dragonstone, the Lannisters cannot reach him.

He also knows that the Starks are unlikely to believe the Lannisters' claims that Ned tried to usurp the Throne and will believe his story much easier. He doesn't know that Robb Stark will turn out to be a 5-star general who smashes the Lannisters - the logical thing to assume would be that he will be defeated by the more experienced Tywin - , it would be much more better to take command of the Stark armies and smash the Lannisters himself. The Stormlands would have been much more supportive of him (I am actually not sure of that bc Stannis is unpopular, but Stannis would have reason to think that!) if he actually claimed why he is King - without it, he is an usurper himself (and he knows it!). It's also weird that he didn't even try to convince the Valelords personally, after all he and Jon Arryn were close and Lysa has just told everyone that his husband was murdered by Lannisters.

Stannis believes (falsely, of course) that everyone should follow him because he is the rightful King, but without knowing WHY he is the rightful King, why would they follow him? While he sends Davos to talk with Stormlords and hired sellswords, Robb calls his banners and marches down to Riverrun.

 

4) Stannis is basically a friendless man, who perceives slights in many things. He told his one friend in court about the incest and he has died, his brother didn't name him Hand or send Sweetrobin to foster in Dragonstone, he thought Renly a courtier with whom they never agreed on anything and he held a (completely unfair) grudge against Ned Stark and after he departed, he just heard that his daughter has gotten betrothed to Joffrey. None of these are Stannis' friends, he doesn't really think it would do much good to tell about the incest to them.

He can also be brooding and indecisive when he is at a difficult situation, just like we see in ASOS where he spends the entire book mulling over whether he should burn his innocent nephew to wake dragons from stone. It would be in-character for him to mull over the issue of incest as well after Jon Arryn - the obvious person to turn to - died. Arguably, it might be in-character for him to exhibit the same behaviour once he hears of Robert's death (and that could be a reason why he waited so long with the declaration), BUT only if Robert's death is unexpected - if he already prepared for that scenario in his head, that he should be acting swiftly and decisively just like he does in ACOK or the end of ASOS.

This just provides a much more fitting and complex explanation for Stannis' behaviour (characters rarely act for one simple reason) than the one that he intentionally left Robert to die. 

[Craving Peaches]

6 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

GRRM also didn't say that 'Stannis stayed in Dragonstone to prepare and wait until a war breaks out'

Then why is he hiring lots of sellswords and sellsails?:

Quote

Oh, Varys hears his whispers. Stannis is building ships, Stannis is hiring sellswords, Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai.

Sounds like war preparation to me...

Hiring mercenaries is not just ''building up your power base' because you can't pay them for an indefinite period of time. Clearly he's hiring them in anticipation of war...

[csuszka1948]

Just now, Craving Peaches said:

Then why is he hiring lots of sellswords and sellsails?:

Sounds like war preparation to me...

Hiring mercenaries is not just ''building up your power base' because you can't pay them for an indefinite period of time. Clearly he's hiring them in anticipation of war...

 

Tywin tells about this to Tyrion AFTER Ned's execution, months after Robert's death. Stannis had time to hire sellswords and sellsails.

[Craving Peaches]

33 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Tywin tells about this to Tyrion AFTER Ned's execution, months after Robert's death. Stannis had time to hire sellswords and sellsails.

Yes but it must have happened before that because the source is Varys and as we know Varys' 'little birds' on the island have been disappearing so the news is old news by the time it reaches Tywin.