Aussies & NZ: You're the Voice Try and Understand It

[Jeor]

Lehrmann bringing this defamation action has to go down as one of the great self-sabotage acts in recent history. The judge even said it in something akin to escaping the lion's den but then going back for his hat. He'll probably be bankrupt now, and unemployable, but I won't be shedding a tear.

To be fair, Lisa Wilkinson and Channel Ten don't come out smelling like roses either. No fact-checking and no opportunity for Lehrmann to respond seems a pretty gross violation of journalistic integrity. And no evidence of a government/political cover-up, which makes the eager politicking of David Sharaz look uncomfortably opportunistic.

I don't think there's a winner in any of this case, although I hope for Brittany Higgins it brings some form of closure; while not a criminal trial, and the burden of proof being lower (balance of probabilities), it did at least give her some legal ruling by proxy that essentially establishes the truth of her allegations and Lehrmann's guilt.

And the Bondi Junction stabbing was a massive tragedy - hits a bit close to home, only a few weeks ago I was there at Bondi Westfield on a Sunday afternoon dropping my daughter off to a birthday party while my wife, me and our 2 year-old son were ambling around the shops for a couple of hours to kill the time until we picked our daughter up (we live 45m away from Bondi so wasn't worth our going home). Incredibly, incredibly sad for those involved but also some amazing acts of bravery too. Thank goodness we don't have many guns in Australia, it could have been so much worse.

[Paxter]

On 4/16/2024 at 8:58 AM, Jeor said:

I don't think there's a winner in any of this case, although I hope for Brittany Higgins it brings some form of closure; while not a criminal trial, and the burden of proof being lower (balance of probabilities), it did at least give her some legal ruling by proxy that essentially establishes the truth of her allegations and Lehrmann's guilt.

Absolutely. Yes, it wasn't to the criminal standard of proof but the defamation case showed that Higgins had a case that police and prosecutors were justified in pursuing. Unfortunately, a mistrial was always a likely outcome due to the media circus around this case, but that is hardly the fault of the victim. 

Let's see what happens in the Toowoomba case now, in which Lehrmann is accused of raping a woman twice in 2021. 

[Paxter]

Another pretty hot CPI print for Australia (3.6% headline annual number, 4% when stripping out the volatile items), solidifying our position as one of a number of economies that are struggling to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. 

By comparison, the Bank of Canada, with a higher nominal rate, has managed to get the headline number under 3%. 

Chances of an RBA cut in 2024 are now pretty low. It also puts Chalmers in a not-fun position for the upcoming budget. Any stimulus could push the prospect of rate cuts even further into the future. 

Edited April 24 by Paxter

[The Anti-Targ]

The link between interest rates and inflation is complex and depends a lot on debt and savings in the private sector. If there are a lot of savings out there higher interest rates will be net inflationary, because it's putting more money into the system.

Right now the RBA is paying $billions in interest to banks because the inter-bank overnight exchange accounts (can't remember the correct name for them) for most banks are flush and the RBA is not forcing banks to buy bonds to takes liquidity out of those accounts and make banks pay interest via overnight borrowing. With the current plentifulness of cash in those accounts every interest rate increase is just RBA stuffing more money into bank's coffers. If the policy of letting banks maintain high balances in those counts continues then the only way to slow the flow of money is to lower interest rates.

[Bironic]

On 4/23/2024 at 10:10 PM, Paxter said:

Absolutely. Yes, it wasn't to the criminal standard of proof but the defamation case showed that Higgins had a case that police and prosecutors were justified in pursuing. Unfortunately, a mistrial was always a likely outcome due to the media circus around this case, but that is hardly the fault of the victim. 

Let's see what happens in the Toowoomba case now, in which Lehrmann is accused of raping a woman twice in 2021. 

I just read an article about an apparently recent survey amongst 1000 Australians done by the NGO whiteribbon. I couldn’t find the survey online but it comes from a reliable media source. It showed certain astonishing facts at least among the people participating in the survey, such as 44% of 18-34 year old males don’t believe that sexual acts without consent should be considered rape. Women and older men have significantly different options apparently. The article goes on to say that certain things such as male only schools and societies with more males than females make violence against women more abundant. Is this discussed in Australia?

[Paxter]

On 4/24/2024 at 10:17 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

The link between interest rates and inflation is complex and depends a lot on debt and savings in the private sector. If there are a lot of savings out there higher interest rates will be net inflationary, because it's putting more money into the system.

Right now the RBA is paying $billions in interest to banks because the inter-bank overnight exchange accounts (can't remember the correct name for them) for most banks are flush and the RBA is not forcing banks to buy bonds to takes liquidity out of those accounts and make banks pay interest via overnight borrowing. With the current plentifulness of cash in those accounts every interest rate increase is just RBA stuffing more money into bank's coffers. If the policy of letting banks maintain high balances in those counts continues then the only way to slow the flow of money is to lower interest rates.

You're not wrong - it's a complicated effect. Savers (notably, baby boomers) are doing really well right now. My parents have most of their life savings in term deposits that are paying very handsomely compared to a few years ago. This supports consumption and is a reason services-related inflation is running hot in Australia. 

The effect on banks is a little more nuanced. Yes, they are earning more on interest-bearing assets (like the reserves that have at the RBA), as well as their mortgage book, which is largely variable rate debt. But they are also paying more in terms of funding costs - particularly on wholesale funding, on which Australian banks are very reliant. This is hampering their ability to extend credit to borrowers that are already stretched and don’t want to pay high interest on things like auto loans. So I don't think that aspect of high interest rates is particularly inflationary. 

The big problem I see for the RBA (and the reason I see them holding or raising interest rates further) is that lower interest rates is going to put more money in the pockets of many consumers and businesses with floating-rate debt that they will probably spend immediately. That is going to juice domestic inflation even more. And, of course, there is the small matter of the $AUD, which could collapse further if the RBA cuts, making everything we import even more expensive. 

My overall position remains as it has been all year - doubting that the Reserve got this right and expecting inflation to be sticky. 

Edited April 27 by Paxter