Aussies & NZ: You're the Voice Try and Understand It

[Jeor]

So we have a date for the Voice referendum, October 14. I think it will be closer than people think and the Yes vote will probably tick up as we get closer to the date, but in terms of the result I think it won't get through. A symbolic national majority would still be a decent result and avoid some of the negative fallout, but not being able to lose more than two states is a pretty high bar.

On other matters, Qantas is getting rightly hammered in the press and in the courts. First for trying to expire all the flight credits and not refund them so they can hold onto customers' money, and second for taking the money for bookings when they knew the flights had already been cancelled for weeks. This second one might be the killer with the ACCC going to court. 

It's definitely not a good look for the Labor government which has been, somewhat mystifyingly for a union-friendly party, in the back pocket of Qantas management by blocking other airlines from running more flights into Australia and in the process strengthening Qantas' monopoly and keeping prices high for consumers. Alan Joyce will maddeningly get away with this because he retires soon and he's already pocketed all the money. I hope the board at least cancels his last bonus.

[The Anti-Targ]

Brilliant subtitle, but aren't we supposed to get the link to the song so we can feel the warm glow and brilliance of Mr Farnham's rousing anthem?

[Jeor]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Brilliant subtitle, but aren't we supposed to get the link to the song so we can feel the warm glow and brilliance of Mr Farnham's rousing anthem?

Oh alright - here's one!!

[Wall Flower]

The No campaign reached new lows with Dutton's Trumpian attacks on the AEC and talk of rigged votes - not to mention Howard's 'Maintain the Rage'. Dispiritingly, latest polling suggests it's working for them.

[Jeor]

I just don't see the Yes vote passing at this stage.

The criteria for referenda are difficult by design (constitutional founders not being particularly fond of their constitution being changed), and at this stage (when even the national popular vote is dicey) then being only able to lose two states out of 6 is virtually impossible. When you consider Queensland and Tasmania are probably already a hard No that doesn't leave much wiggle room.

[Wall Flower]

39 minutes ago, Jeor said:

I just don't see the Yes vote passing at this stage.

The criteria for referenda are difficult by design (constitutional founders not being particularly fond of their constitution being changed), and at this stage (when even the national popular vote is dicey) then being only able to lose two states out of 6 is virtually impossible. When you consider Queensland and Tasmania are probably already a hard No that doesn't leave much wiggle room.

Sadly, it's looking that way. I'm particularly pissed off being in the ACT as we only get half a say (counted in the overall majority). It's especially galling wrt to the Northern Territory which has the highest percentage of Indigenous Australians in its population but effectively has less of a say than QLD.

[Jeor]

7 hours ago, Wall Flower said:

Sadly, it's looking that way. I'm particularly pissed off being in the ACT as we only get half a say (counted in the overall majority). It's especially galling wrt to the Northern Territory which has the highest percentage of Indigenous Australians in its population but effectively has less of a say than QLD.

I'm assuming both territories (ACT, Northern Territory) will be a yes. There's a reasonable chance of Yes getting up in NSW, Victoria and South Australia. Given NSW and Victoria's populations, they could push the national vote over the 50% margin required. So if the territories counted, there would be a path to victory (5 out of 8). But I have a feeling Western Australia will be a No given their recent experience of indigenous property rights and the backflips from the government on them, which has not done the Yes campaign any favours.

[The Anti-Targ]

Ultimately a No vote could be a good thing. Because a Yes would mean a lot of people thinking, "OK, job done we've fixed indigenous rights". A no vote means no one who cares even a little bit about indigenous rights can think the job's done, so a better solution, for the benefit of Aboriginal people, will need to be found.

Man this election can't be over soon enough. Party political news is frequent enough when it's not election year, during campaign season it's wall to wall, so tiresome. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by The Anti-Targ

[Tyrosh Lannister]

I'm voting no lol

[Varysblackfyre321]

The trial took place in Australia so I’m guessing it’d be okay to place here.

[Paxter]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:07 AM, Jeor said:

I think it will be closer than people think

I don't. I think there will at least be three states voting no - and probably not by small margins. My state will likely be one of them. 

At this stage, it's easier to be despondent in advance. 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Paxter

[Jeor]

22 hours ago, Paxter said:

I don't. I think there will at least be three states voting no - and probably not by small margins. My state will likely be one of them. 

At this stage, it's easier to be despondent in advance. 

Yes I'm assuming WA will fall into the No camp. The recent debacle with land rights did not help.

But while it will be defeated on the state count, the national vote might be closer. Though they have small populations, I assume ACT and NT will be heavily in favour and I expect the national Yes vote will be closer (probably within a 45-55 split).

[karaddin]

I'm really worried about the psychological impact of a no result on indigenous Australians. It's not exactly that long since the same sex marriage "survey" and that did a fucking number on me even when winning by a considerable margin, this is going to be a lot worse for them.

[Jeor]

9 hours ago, karaddin said:

I'm really worried about the psychological impact of a no result on indigenous Australians. It's not exactly that long since the same sex marriage "survey" and that did a fucking number on me even when winning by a considerable margin, this is going to be a lot worse for them.

It does have the potential to be quite the official slap in the face to indigenous Australians.

For this reason I do think Albanese should have given some serious thought to delaying or scrapping the referendum for now, not that he will now he's committed to a date. A failed referendum will set this process back by another 10-20 years before you can think of trying another one and you have all the collateral of a failed vote to deal with. 

I would have thought you could legislate the Voice first, and then after a few years when people see it's nothing to be worried about, the referendum would have a better chance of passing. Of course this is easier in hindsight now that support is slipping so low, last year when it was at 60% a referendum sounded like a good idea, so I'm not saying it would have been an easy decision.

[karaddin]

Yeah I was saying pretty much the same thing in the last thread once it was clear support was collapsing and they weren't doing the work required to sell people on it. Trying and failing is so much worse than delaying.

[Jeor]

You always have to take news.com.au with a grain of salt but the research this article cites is interesting. The article implies that the "No" case is resonating more with people while the "Yes" campaign has gone off in the wrong direction and missed the mark when trying to persuade voters. 

The "No" case has been pretty clear with its reasons and they all work "together" in the sense that they create enough doubt to persuade enough people to vote no. No campaigns have an easier time creating doubt, they can throw enough stuff at the wall and something can stick.

The "Yes" case on the other hand has made some claims that seem to work against each other - that it is an advisory body only (and hence nothing to be scared of), but also that it will result in positive, practical outcomes - implying that it is more powerful than any other initiatives that have come before it.

Finally I think all the corporate sponsors etc have backfired. As the article states, big companies aren't exactly peoples' favourite cup of tea these days, especially in a cost of living crisis, so they aren't the most persuasive yes campaigners going around.

[Paxter]

Agree with @karaddin that this should have been dropped. A major blunder by Albo that could ultimately tank his premiership. 

I think it was reasonably clear a few months ago that Australians (and Coalition voters in particular) weren't into the proposal and we should have gone back to the drawing board with an alternative form of constitutional recognition.

A bipartisan approach would help too. Dutton (predictably) did not provide any assistance in that regard. 

[karaddin]

There's never going to be a bipartisan option while Dutton is leader, his personal feelings are going to block that.

[karaddin]

9 hours ago, Jeor said:

The "Yes" case on the other hand has made some claims that seem to work against each other - that it is an advisory body only (and hence nothing to be scared of), but also that it will result in positive, practical outcomes - implying that it is more powerful than any other initiatives that have come before it.

I think at the end of the day the way that Labor have tried to sell it gives the impression that they're doing it for perceived political gain, not because they believe in it. Things like this need to be driven by genuine belief or it just makes the scare campaign too easy to wage. 

[Jeor]

1 hour ago, karaddin said:

I think at the end of the day the way that Labor have tried to sell it gives the impression that they're doing it for perceived political gain, not because they believe in it. Things like this need to be driven by genuine belief or it just makes the scare campaign too easy to wage. 

The strategy needed to include a lot more of a grassroots feel to it. At the moment the biggest proponents of "Yes" are Labor politicians and big business. This has the effect of making it feel like a lot of virtue-signalling rather than, as you say, more of a genuine belief in it.

A better Yes campaign would have put a wide variety of indigenous leaders (not just Noel Pearson) front and centre, with Labor and large corporations playing more of a supporting/background role.