Aussies & NZ: You're the Voice Try and Understand It

[Paxter]

4 hours ago, Jeor said:

The Stage 3 tax cuts might be disagreeable but I wouldn't consider them kooky. Modifications to income tax cuts are commonly debated and implemented. Rent freezes don't really fall into that category. Now, franking credits...that might potentially fall into the kooky category.

Meh we have rent control in Ontario. It's not a freeze, but it's not off-the-charts dissimilar. Think we're kooky over here?

Edited October 5, 2023 by Paxter

[Jeor]

On 10/6/2023 at 3:03 AM, Paxter said:

Meh we have rent control in Ontario. It's not a freeze, but it's not off-the-charts dissimilar. Think we're kooky over here?

Maybe just a little 

For what it's worth, rent controls (which I take to mean a cap on the amount that rents can be increased in a given period) aren't terrible if the cap is reasonable enough. 

I don't think the rental crisis and soaring costs in Australia can really be fixed by controls/freezes. Supply is the biggest problem, including associated issues such as NIMBY planning blockades. In a place like Sydney, they also need to make some areas more commuter-friendly.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Jeor

[Paxter]

4 hours ago, Jeor said:

For what it's worth, rent controls (which I take to mean a cap on the amount that rents can be increased in a given period) aren't terrible if the cap is reasonable enough. 

Yup, that's right. Current cap is 2.5%. It doesn't apply to new units though as the province is trying to increase the housing stock.

Ontario caps 2024 rent increases at 2.5 per cent; does not apply to newer units | CBC News

[Paxter]

A week out from the referendum and I’m more convinced than ever that Albo should have shut this down and conceded defeat early. 

Most undecideds seem to be breaking for No, leaving no hope for the Yes campaign. I don’t even know if Yes will win a state at this point. I’m predicting 45-55 nationally (Yes-No) and maybe 1-2 states Yes.

On an anecdotal note, my immediate family is voting Yes out of support for my partner, but most of my extended family is leaning No or a hard No. 

[Jeor]

This might surprise people (though hopefully not, given I am a moderate Liberal voter and consider myself relatively sensible) but despite my doubts about the detail, I voted Yes. To be honest, my wife convinced me and I felt bad if I voted no and cancelled hers out!

There might be a few people in my boat who break for Yes at the end but, like @Paxter says, I'm sure we would be a small group compared to the undecideds who will break for No.

[Jeor]

4 hours ago, Paxter said:

A week out from the referendum and I’m more convinced than ever that Albo should have shut this down and conceded defeat early. 

The Yes campaign has obviously taken the Republic referendum to heart and deliberately decided not to offer any details for fear that it would turn off voters who wanted a "yes" in a different form (or providing a bigger target for "No" to attack). But the opposite tactic (offering no details) is now obviously a bad choice too. For referendums to succeed, they either need to be lay down miseres or the campaign has to pitch it somewhere in the middle - a broadly appealing proposal with enough meat on the bones. Hard to pitch!

[Skyrazer]

Most people have little to no idea on what it is they're voting on, so they'll likely just vote based on how they feel about Labor/Albo and with people hurting from COL and inflation, they've soured with Labor and so will lean towards No.

It's being seen as a Labor initiative (when it shouldn't be) and so people will use it as an opportunity to air their disapproval for the current govt by voting no. The stars have to be in perfect alignment for a referendum like this to pass and right now they're way out of whack.

I somewhat agree with Paxter in that it may have been better if Albo just pulled the plug. I think he went into this too hastily by calling it basically the second he won the election. You gotta have your cards in order to pull off a referendum like this.

[The Anti-Targ]

On 9/29/2023 at 2:56 AM, Jeor said:

I think we're seeing that rates are a poor tool for controlling inflation. And it also hurts a specific portion of the population (mortgage holders) who can least afford it while leaving vast tracts of the country untouched (wealthy retirees with paid off homes). However, controlling inflation is a devilishly difficult task as it has so many different causes and the government and RBA are not always able to control any of them.

However, I do think the ultra-low 0.1% interest rates were not a healthy option for the economy and normalising rates is better in the long term (although I think we can all agree the infamous forward guidance and the speed of the rises have left a lot to be desired). Having the cost of borrowing so low encouraged people to take on too much debt and caused various asset prices (particularly housing) to soar too high.

Petrol prices are an interesting one. I think the current rise in prices actually helps the RBA as it has the same type of effect of rising interest rates - as a general fixed cost in household budgets it takes away spending power from other things.

There are schools of thought that say the RB interest rate should be permanently 0%, and it's a stupid arse tool for controlling inflation.

Warren Mosler reckons the influence RB interest rates has on inflation depends a lot on whether the pain on the borrowers is counter-acted by the gain for depositors. Raising interest rates is just passive income for (very rich) bond holders and people with bank term deposits (not so rich, but with a bit of spare cash). 

Early voting has been open here for about a week. Things are looking interesting, even though Labour is guaranteed to take a hammering seeing half of its 2020 vote vanish, it's not yet guaranteed that the centre-right/right/populist groups will be able to take over, because the centre-right/right are very reluctant to work with the populists. The populists have said then unsaid then re-said they will not work with Labour, so it seems likely the only possible govt coming out of this will be on the right, but there's a chance of needing another election. I doubt it though, everyone wants power too much to let principles getting in the way and risk losing the chance to grab it with a second election.

Has Aussie ever had a hung parliament?

 

[Impmk2]

4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Has Aussie ever had a hung parliament?

Federally? 2010-2013 (Gillard / Labor) is the only hung parliament in living memory I believe. With the crossbench getting more seats each election a repeat is becoming increasingly likely though.

[Paxter]

15 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

Most people have little to no idea on what it is they're voting on, so they'll likely just vote based on how they feel about Labor/Albo and with people hurting from COL and inflation, they've soured with Labor and so will lean towards No.

It's being seen as a Labor initiative (when it shouldn't be) and so people will use it as an opportunity to air their disapproval for the current govt by voting no. The stars have to be in perfect alignment for a referendum like this to pass and right now they're way out of whack.

I somewhat agree with Paxter in that it may have been better if Albo just pulled the plug. I think he went into this too hastily by calling it basically the second he won the election. You gotta have your cards in order to pull off a referendum like this.

No Referendum has carried in Aus without bipartisan support. So the smart thing would have been to at least wait for a more amenable Opposition Leader. 

@Jeor: Give Mrs Jeor a high-five from me. 

[karaddin]

9 hours ago, Paxter said:

No Referendum has carried in Aus without bipartisan support. So the smart thing would have been to at least wait for a more amenable Opposition Leader. 

@Jeor

This really is what it comes down to at the end of the day. Even in the "postal survey", which was complicated by not being an actual referendum, the coalition didn't campaign against it. As soon as Dutton made clear their stance was going to align with his beliefs this was fucked. 

[The Anti-Targ]

On 10/10/2023 at 6:38 AM, Paxter said:

No Referendum has carried in Aus without bipartisan support. So the smart thing would have been to at least wait for a more amenable Opposition Leader. 

@Jeor: Give Mrs Jeor a high-five from me. 

Trying to think if this is also true here. I think when we had a referendum to change our electoral system back in the 90s a lot of the mainstream right opposed the change (so did some on the mainstream left), but I'm not sure if any political party actually opposed it. The referendum was held while National was the govt, which probably helped convince some on the mainstream right to vote for change.

Our recent-ish flag referendum pretty much went the other way. National was govt for that, but it failed, possibly mostly because no one could really agree what to change to. I think a majority of people wanted a change, but a lot of those people wanting the change didn't like the final options being presented, so they stuck with what we have.

Our very recent cannabis legalisation referendum also failed (if you are a legalisation supporter, I guess it succeeded for those wanting to keep it illegal). Held under the Labour govt, with the PM not coming out for or against, and I think the National party being against. It came close though.

[Bironic]

On 10/11/2023 at 4:10 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

Trying to think if this is also true here. I think when we had a referendum to change our electoral system back in the 90s a lot of the mainstream right opposed the change (so did some on the mainstream left), but I'm not sure if any political party actually opposed it. The referendum was held while National was the govt, which probably helped convince some on the mainstream right to vote for change.

Our recent-ish flag referendum pretty much went the other way. National was govt for that, but it failed, possibly mostly because no one could really agree what to change to. I think a majority of people wanted a change, but a lot of those people wanting the change didn't like the final options being presented, so they stuck with what we have.

Our very recent cannabis legalisation referendum also failed (if you are a legalisation supporter, I guess it succeeded for those wanting to keep it illegal). Held under the Labour govt, with the PM not coming out for or against, and I think the National party being against. It came close though.

I would add that it helps if you have referenda on a regular basis (meaning every couple of months) and on all level of government (local, statal and federal) and not just one „big“ referendum every couple of years or even decades. Because people will get used to them and will be much better prepared how to deal with them and will be much better at understanding what these referenda are about…

About your flag referendum: honestly whatever you would have chosen it would have been a massive improvement over what you have right now… yours and the Australian flag are among the worst flags in the world. If you can’t decide which kind of pizza you want just chose one at random even bad pizza is better than no pizza… 

Your drug policy seems to be all over the place? Legalizing weed but prohibiting tobacco ?

[The Anti-Targ]

8 hours ago, Bironic said:

I would add that it helps if you have referenda on a regular basis (meaning every couple of months) and on all level of government (local, statal and federal) and not just one „big“ referendum every couple of years or even decades. Because people will get used to them and will be much better prepared how to deal with them and will be much better at understanding what these referenda are about…

About your flag referendum: honestly whatever you would have chosen it would have been a massive improvement over what you have right now… yours and the Australian flag are among the worst flags in the world. If you can’t decide which kind of pizza you want just chose one at random even bad pizza is better than no pizza… 

Your drug policy seems to be all over the place? Legalizing weed but prohibiting tobacco ?

Don't forget we also freely encourage alcohol advertising and sponsorship of sport and other healthy activities.

I disagree about our flags. The main reason for NZ to change the flag is so people stop mistaking it for Australia's. Aside from that it's perfectly adequate, until we become a republic and then I think it would be worth thinking about getting rid of the Union Jack in the corner. 

[Bironic]

4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Don't forget we also freely encourage alcohol advertising and sponsorship of sport and other healthy activities.

I disagree about our flags. The main reason for NZ to change the flag is so people stop mistaking it for Australia's. Aside from that it's perfectly adequate, until we become a republic and then I think it would be worth thinking about getting rid of the Union Jack in the corner. 

Yes the amount of alcohol adverts around the world is let’s say puzzling…

We have to agree to disagree about the flags though…Having another flag in one of the corners doesn‘t look good( whatever thing it is) The only person capable of distuingish your flag from Australia outside of your country is probably Sheldon cooper. Take Canada: it’s not a republic and has chosen something unique to their country that is easily identifiable as flag and it has become an internationally recognized brand… and even some of the other Commonwealth realms from Jamaica to Papua New Guinea have more recognizable and nicer looking flags…

 

[Paxter]

Emotions running high today. Praying for a miracle but expecting a clusterfuck.

I really hope WA doesn’t embarrass me today.

[karaddin]

3 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Emotions running high today. Praying for a miracle but expecting a clusterfuck.

I really hope WA doesn’t embarrass me today.

Pretty much where I'm at. It's so surreal - aside from a few dicks on Reddit I haven't even seen the no campaign. It's not "campaigning" anywhere I actually see. There wasn't even a single no campaigner at my local polling booth, but a ton for yes. Yet I know that's not going to be remotely reflective of the outcome.

My pessimism says WA won't specifically embarrass you simply because every state will vote no.

[Paxter]

2 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Pretty much where I'm at. It's so surreal - aside from a few dicks on Reddit I haven't even seen the no campaign. It's not "campaigning" anywhere I actually see. There wasn't even a single no campaigner at my local polling booth, but a ton for yes. Yet I know that's not going to be remotely reflective of the outcome.

My pessimism says WA won't specifically embarrass you simply because every state will vote no.

I have a bet with my sister in law that WA will be in the bottom two states. Let’s see if they prove me wrong. My beloved Perth is truly a fucked place I fear.

[karaddin]

11 minutes ago, Paxter said:

I have a bet with my sister in law that WA will be in the bottom two states. Let’s see if they prove me wrong. My beloved Perth is truly a fucked place I fear.

I'd probably have taken that bet if I was your sister in law too lol. Let's hope our country surprises us and the pollsters.

ETA: Might have misunderstood actually, were you saying it will be in the bottom or it won't?

Edited October 14, 2023 by karaddin

[karaddin]

You know its not looking good when "might get above 40% in NSW and Vic" is the optimistic projection