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Impmk2

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Everything posted by Impmk2

  1. While the moderate liberals didn't instigate the climate wars, they certainly seemed quite content to sit back and let it be used to whip up division in the electorate. They needed to be screaming as loudly on the issue(s) as the nationals were in order to differentiate themselves from the hard right - instead they took their electorates for granted and paid for it. The Libs may have still lost this election, but when seats are flipping Liberal to Green they've become pretty amazingly far out of step with the people they're meant to be representing.
  2. I am a microbiologist (but not a virologist). I'd say the chances of a DNA virus recombining with an RNA virus in an evolutionary advantageous way is pretty much zero.
  3. It's probably not the best thing for Australian democracy, but I don't have too much sympathy for the moderate liberals. There was easily a parlimentary majority in favour of broadly popular climate policy. But instead of working a bipartisan bill with Labor on the issue they knifed Turnbull (twice!) and let themselves be held hostage by the minority. In the end it has bitten them hard.
  4. Absolutely. It has narrowed a bit on pre-polls but unfortunately he'll probably be fine when the postals come in, though the seat is yet to be called.
  5. Yep pre-election day votes seem to be coming in very strong for Labor. Outright majority probable. Also looking possible there's a Labor/ Greens senate majority. That would make passing the election promises on climate, childcare, aged care far easier. Dutton may still be in trouble...
  6. There issue is Dutton is even more toxic than Morrison (or even Abbott) in the seats they just lost. Can't see him being a winning formula. Good to see neither the UAP or One Nation play a big role in this election. Clive spent millions on nothing.
  7. ABC calling that the coalition cannot form government. Labor will get very close to majority if not outright.
  8. Labor minority looks the most likely option right now. Can't see Teal working with the coalition due to nats climate change position. And Labor looks to be getting more seats anyway. There might be a couple Greens in the house who could get Labor over the line. But it's most likely going to need the support of the Teal independents too - they're running on an economically conservative but also strong on climate change and socially liberal platform.
  9. Looking quite like a hung parliament right now.
  10. Labor politicians and backing are largely from trade unions, so theres protectionist leanings there. But much of their voter block are now university educated, middle class metropolitan / inner city voters. They tried taking a pretty ambitious economic reform agenda to the last election and lost. So they won't rock the boat much on economic issues. Really the differences are on the extent of government spending, social issues, and environment.
  11. Labor had taken the (probably correct) lesson from the last time that taking solid, ambitious policies to an election will just lose it for you. I'm no fan of Albanese, but this current government seems to be full of unapologetic borderline corrupt assholes. Really hoping they lose today. Wouldn't be disappointed with a hung parliament, with a few independents to keep the bastards honest.
  12. So on the FHB super thing - there is modelling out there for this. And it found that it will push up house prices - often by more than the amount of super FHBs are able to access. So not only does it further inflate the market and put it even more out of reach for many, but it also means the ones who can use it have reduced super to use for retirement. It's a bandaid solution that doesn't solve any of the underlying issues. https://mckellinstitute.org.au/research/reports/mortgaging-our-future/
  13. Just pushing the housing bubble further down the road. When it bursts so many people are going to end up screwed. But that's the current government all day long - health, climate, housing. They just pretend the massive structural problems don't exist, kick the can down the road, and almost certainly make the pain worse when you're forced to act.
  14. Had a chat to my wife about this last night. She's a physicist who spends her days writing programs to analyse data coming off wind radars and eats statistical analysis like this for breakfast. (odd start to the conversation 'what do you know about spline fitting?' - turns out lots) Anyway her take away was that she doesn't think there's anything wrong with the WHOs statistical analysis per se. At a glance it all looks reasonable. It's just that they've taken a single model and applied it to every country, which may miss specific local conditions, and throw up the occasional odd result. So there's a pretty big degree of uncertainty in all this.
  15. The baseline mortality the WHO used to calculating excess deaths in Germany is... somewhat interesting. It's raised a few eyebrows. Seems there's scope for reasonable disagreement for what the baseline mortality should be in a given country, and that can completely change the analysis.
  16. Yep there we go. Quite happy with our decison to sell the investment* and pay down our mortgage a month ago. Now we just need the settlement to come through.... Yeah think that scupper's Morrison's chances. People need big wage increases over the next couple years or lots are going to be in a world of pain. Many first home buyers are currently mortgaged to the hilt. *My wife's first home. Really wanted to sell it when we moved. Happy she put her foot down on that one.
  17. The more positive note on a vaccine level: Omicron is less severe than Delta, but also doesn't generate as good a neutralising antibody response. However vaccination plus Omicron infection puts you in a substantially better place (both as far as magnitude and as well as durability of antibody response) than immunity derived from infection alone. The population level immunity is likely to be much higher in places with a good vaccination rate who have have had substantial BA.1 / BA.2 waves, than in South Africa. Hopefully it's enough to reduce any potential winter BA4 / BA5 waves.
  18. I actually think sidelining Albo could be a plus for the Labor campaign. Shifts the focus away from him and his gaffes, generates sympathy, and lets his generally more popular front bench become the face of the campaign while running down the clock. But that's just my take - not the biggest fan of Albo in the first place (though far prefer him to ScoMo).
  19. You'd need to have regular randomised global covid survey to get a real grasp on prevalence, which we've never had, and probably never will. Still, until the last couple weeks case numbers were at higher levels than seen in the entirety of 2020/2021 while deaths were at lower levels than any time since March 2020. That gives some reassurance the the big reductions in mortality is probably real and not any more of an undercount than we've previously seen. People not getting tested due to [reasons] is not a new problem.
  20. Had a read of this paper a few days ago. Found it interesting but there's a few limitations which should be kept in mind: 1) This study was done in early 2021 with an immunologically naive cohort. 2) They used the commonly circulating virus in the UK in early 2020 - almost certainly OG Wuhan 3) This was done on a very young cohort (20-30 year olds from memory). 4) Small sample size (36, of which ~18 became infected) So I'd perhaps be somewhat cautious is over-interpreting the results, especially on to Omicron which can in some ways can be quite distinct. So they're actually recommending upping the inoculation for any future challenge trials. It wasn't sufficient for about ~50% of the cohort to become infected at all.
  21. I would've liked some concrete energy policy. I know neither side will really make big annoucements it because of Queensland marginals where it'll play badly, but ffs we need to modernise the grid. We have one of the largest per capita solar uptakes in the world, if we could subsidise some storage for all that energy it'd massively help with grid stability. Building new / prolonging the life of traditional power plants made zero sense from an economic perspective 5 years ago let alone now (and that's not even bringing the environment into it). There's a big opportunity for local battery manufacturing to go along with the resource extraction. Could also go on a massive rant about EV infrastructure. The automotive industry is putting all its R&D eggs in the EV basket. There's a reason Tesla is now the highest valued car company in the world. We need to get the charging infrastructure in place fast or we're going to be terribly positioned. Europe and even the US are streets ahead of us here.
  22. Oh wow, went to bed with Pakistan looking comfortable 3 down on 180ish. Wake up to all out for 268. Crazy.
  23. Well that was a very short night. First covid premier to fall. Federal Libs will be very worried about this one. Marshall wasn't a terrible premier and he just got destroyed.
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