Dothraki Army - Incompetent Huns

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

If Dothraki alone win battles against other armies in Westeros it will be brain dead writing. Everything works against Dothraki being successful when they are in Westeros - opposing armies, fortresses, terrain, supplies etc.

None of that are an issue narratively, as KL can be stormed and burned easily enough, and there is no reason to assume a Targaryen pretender has to do more than that to force a war-torn country into submission in winter. Dany wants the throne, she doesn't want to conquer some backwater castles in the countryside. If anyone wants to topple her, they have to march against her. There is no reason to assume that she would send out the Dothraki to, say, capture Casterly Rock or the Eyrie.

Also, of course, provisions and sieges will play no role at all as there is no time for stuff like that. A well-provisioned castle, ready to face a winter lasting for two or three or four years, would be able to sit out not only the time covered by TWoW but also ADoS and how many other novels might be needed to cover the remainder of the series.

At best we can expect the remainder of the story to cover 1-2 more years, not more. And that is quite generous in light of how little time passed in AFfC and ADwD.

Also, of course, the Westerosi people have no experience at all fighting the Dothraki.

[Aldarion]

On 12/20/2023 at 8:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

The Iron Throne is in KL, and to win it Aegon has to take it. And technically he is opposed by 30,000-40,000 Reach men which should win the day easily enough, even if he had full Dornish support.

Aegon might get declarations of support and lords bending their knee after he takes Storm's End and then KL ... but in winter and in a war-torn Westeros that won't translate into him gaining troops left and right.

Battle of Agincourt was 6 000 - 8 000 men on English side against 14 000 - 15 000 soldiers + 10 000 armed servants on French side.

English won. And considering Connington's musings about bows and longbows, and the fact that heavy rains have apparently fallen all across the Stormlands (just like Agincourt), 

Even looking outside the narrative, tactics and terrain matter. It is no accident, I think, that first army Golden Company is facing is that of Reach.

Remember discussions in Renly's tent? Sounded quite French to me: attempt at wipe out the enemy army with one glorious charge of heavy cavalry. Sure, such tactics may well work some 90% of the time... but not against an enemy as disciplined as the Golden Company, and moreover, an enemy which knows how you fight.

Now, if it were Stannis or Randyll leading the army, then I would agree that Golden Company's prospects were not looking good despite all of the above. But all indications point to Mace Tyrell being one commanding the Reach forces.

On 12/20/2023 at 8:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

They are, as Harry Strickland shows. They are going to sell Aegon out if he were to lose. And they will break camp and retreat again if the campaign is not going to look profitable.

Maybe, but it will take a lot more than just "not looking profitable" for them to retreat.

On 12/20/2023 at 8:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

Where is it raining heavily? The 30,000-40,000 Tyrell men are not all heavy cavalry. They should have just as many archers and professional men-at-arms as Aegon has, since the latter does not only not yet have the entire Golden Company at Griffin's Roost/Storm's End but is also outnumbered 5:1 or 6:1. There will be some rabble among the Reach men, to be sure, but their strength is drawn from the castles and towns of the Reach where we would expect to have the best trained feudal levies in all of Westeros.

There is chance that a bumbling general is going to make things very hard for the Tyrell effort ... but you would have to be an utter moron to lose against 5,000-6,000 men with 30,000-40,000 men. Even if Mace or Randyll were to march with only half their strength they would still have 15,000-20,000 men - more than double than Aegon will have after he has taken Storm's End.

In the Stormlands. You know, the place where Tyrell army will face the Golden Company.

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“The rains have turned the routes to mud.” (TWOW, Arianne II)

And nobody said that Reach army consists of rabble. But "professional army" is not some magic wand which makes one immune to anything. Fully professional armies have lost battles, time and again, battles that they by all accounts should have easily won - simply because their commanders were idiots.

If Mace Tyrell leads the Reach army - as he apparently will - then Golden Company has the battle some 90% in the bag.

Agincourt? 25 000 against ~7 000, and 25 000 lost. And the way the situation surrounding the battle is being described, it seems quite clear that Martin is indeed intending to write "Westerosi Agincourt".

On 12/20/2023 at 8:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but that is then a narrative, non-military reason: People favoring a (perhaps) false dragon to a (confirmed) false boy stag can make some sense. Aegon is likely to win because Tommen's government will collapse from the inside rather than be defeated on the field.

The chance that Aegon could defeat the Tyrells on the field are actually pretty bad - and he could never hope to besiege or storm the city. If he wins, then because the Reach men refuse to fight him or outright defect to his side. All that is prepared by the infighting in Tommen's government.

See above. Even if we ignore the narrative requirements, there is a decent chance that Tyrells may actually be defeated in the field there.

Narrative requirements merely turn it from "decent" to "nearly certain".

On 12/20/2023 at 8:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

They brought how many men to Winterfell? 300, I think, 100 of them knights. They could wreak some havoc, to be sure, but unless theirs were a carefully coordinated betrayal in the middle of the battle - like Roose planned it for the Karstarks - they should have little effect. Even more so as the Freys should actually expect something like that. There is no chance in the world that even Hosteen Frey expects them to jointly butcher Stannis. Rather, the guy is looking forward to slaughter the Manderlys on the way to Stannis if he gets the chance. He does think Wyman did the same with his kin on the way to Barrowton, after all.

Martin is actually setting up precisely that, I think. Stannis has been fishing on the frozen lakes, making them into basically traps. And Manderly outright says "me and my knights will follow". Even if Hosteen does slaughter Manderlys on the way to Stannis, chances are he will loose most of his men in the frigid water. And if he doesn't, that will leave Manderly men perfectly poised to exploit the situation.

On 12/20/2023 at 8:39 PM, Lord Varys said:

Well, if he wins, it will likely be due to him using the terrain to his advantage and seeing the enemy commanders make grievous mistakes - which is also a great way to neutralize military advantages in numbers and equipment.

And to be sure - the terrain advantages can only be exploited only once. He could still be crushed like a bug if Roose is smart enough to check things out before he unleashes his own forces. The Karstark double betrayal is going to have a huge effect, one imagines, but once it is revealed it is revealed. Ditto with the lake. If both will play out during the original Frey attack, even Ramsay could put Stannis down.

And the clansmen want to die in the fighting. Their attacks will be suicidal, so Stannis could lose too many men in the first battle, long before he even gets close to Winterfell.

Stannis best chance is not so much a military victory of his side, but a disintegration of the Bolton camp - like Aegon has to hope team Tommen is going to collapse. And chances are not so bad there as the only glue tying most of the Northmen at Winterfell to the Boltons was 'Arya Stark'. With her gone, Roose and Ramsay might be murdered by some turncloak Northmen in Winterfell itself.

Agreed. As I see it, Stannis will win Battle of the Ice and Roose and Ramsay will be murdered by Northmen. And then the Others will appear in the Winterfell.

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

English won. And considering Connington's musings about bows and longbows, and the fact that heavy rains have apparently fallen all across the Stormlands (just like Agincourt), 

Even looking outside the narrative, tactics and terrain matter. It is no accident, I think, that first army Golden Company is facing is that of Reach.

Ah, but that is the south in the Rainwood/on Cape Wrath, not in the north of Storm's End.

Aegon seems to be attacked by the Tyrell army at Storm's End - which means the battle will take place outside the castle or, if preparations are made, perhaps somewhere on the road inside the Kingswood. That would be a good place for a trap.

13 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Remember discussions in Renly's tent? Sounded quite French to me: attempt at wipe out the enemy army with one glorious charge of heavy cavalry. Sure, such tactics may well work some 90% of the time... but not against an enemy as disciplined as the Golden Company, and moreover, an enemy which knows how you fight.

The Golden Company will only win if they are the ones doing the attacking. What we could see, I think, is something akin to the Battle of the Kingsroad at the end of the Dance, or, perhaps, even something loosely based on the German attack on Varus' legions. We have no clue how broad and movable the Kingsroad in the Kingswood is, so there might be a good chance for a trap there.

13 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Now, if it were Stannis or Randyll leading the army, then I would agree that Golden Company's prospects were not looking good despite all of the above. But all indications point to Mace Tyrell being one commanding the Reach forces.

No, the chances are equal for Mace commanding the army, Randyll commanding the army, or both of them jointly commanding the army. Aegon is yet dismissed by Mace and Randyll both in the Epilogue ... but that is before the fall of Storm's End. Once the castle falls and news arrive that the boy has proclaimed himself there and is urging all Targaryen loyalists to do fealty to their rightful king they will take him very seriously.

Also, the double murder makes Mace Tyrell king in all but name. He might want to exploit and enjoy that. Yes, he is also hungry for glory in battle, that is something to consider ... but we have no clue how events will unfold with the trials of the queens. In the Epilogue he made it clear he would only bestir himself once his daughter is acquitted ... so if this is going to take time, say, because Margaery wants her reputation restored completely and insists on a Faith trial even after Kevan's removal would allow them to have King Tommen declare Margaery innocent, then Mace might decide to send Randyll against Aegon.

Mace and Randyll both marching against Aegon and were, for some reason, to take the bulk of the Reach forces with them would also give Cersei freer reign to try to do some mischief, especially in the field of fleeing the city.

And while Mace likes to brag ... the guy is actually a shrewd politician. He is not necessarily stupid enough to face the Golden Company without the help of a man like Tarly - who already seems to be a very close advisor to Mace in the Epilogue.

13 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Maybe, but it will take a lot more than just "not looking profitable" for them to retreat.

Strickland is right now very pleasantly surprised by their miraculous successes ... but that is an indication how quickly they might jump ship if things start to go awry.

And if Aegon is still down to 5,000-6,000 Golden Company men at Storm's End ... how likely is it that those guys are willing to really bleed and die against 30,000-40,000 Reach men? They would face an enemy which outnumbers them multiple times. An enemy who is also quite rich and could buy them off.

It is more likely we are going to see some crumbling in the Reach camp, especially if Mathis Rowan were to survive the fall of Storm's End and ended up in camp Aegon.

13 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

In the Stormlands. You know, the place where Tyrell army will face the Golden Company.

And nobody said that Reach army consists of rabble. But "professional army" is not some magic wand which makes one immune to anything. Fully professional armies have lost battles, time and again, battles that they by all accounts should have easily won - simply because their commanders were idiots.

My point simply is that without us being able to predict where the story is going we would think that chances are actually very high that Aegon will fail completely.

Just as would have expected Renly to triumph in ACoK as he was the strongest pretender or Stannis to win on the Blackwater.

The story is driving events here, not realistic portrayal of military stuff. Which is why guys like the Dothraki will play the role of the terrifying Hun or Mongol hordes ... and not that of some lousy and badly conceived morons. Assuming they will play a big role in the story at all.

13 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Martin is actually setting up precisely that, I think. Stannis has been fishing on the frozen lakes, making them into basically traps. And Manderly outright says "me and my knights will follow". Even if Hosteen does slaughter Manderlys on the way to Stannis, chances are he will loose most of his men in the frigid water. And if he doesn't, that will leave Manderly men perfectly poised to exploit the situation.

Wyman Manderly's throat has just been (kind of) cut by a Frey blade, and the man is too fat to sit a horse, anyway. He won't go anywhere. The only thing he is doing is going to die at Winterfell. Perhaps in some struggle that might also lead to the end of Roose and/or Ramsay. If Roose is gone then Ramsay won't last two seconds, as Barbrey Dustin's men might immediately bring her his head. If not, then they would at least turn on him, abandon him, or butcher the guardians of this or that gate to let Stannis' forces in.

In light of the Davos situation chances are pretty bad that the Manderlys will effectively turn on anyone. They might stay out of the Frey attack or attack them from the rear after Stannis' trap has been sprung. But Wyman would have instructed them to tread very carefully with Stannis as the guy is not likely to trust them until they actually kind of prove that Davos is still alive. Something they could, perhaps, do by way of handing him a letter written in Davos' hand.

13 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Agreed. As I see it, Stannis will win Battle of the Ice and Roose and Ramsay will be murdered by Northmen. And then the Others will appear in the Winterfell.

The Others are very far away at this point. Anything else is wishful thinking.

[Aldarion]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

Ah, but that is the south in the Rainwood/on Cape Wrath, not in the north of Storm's End.

Why mention it if it will be unimportant?

On 12/21/2023 at 11:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

Aegon seems to be attacked by the Tyrell army at Storm's End - which means the battle will take place outside the castle or, if preparations are made, perhaps somewhere on the road inside the Kingswood. That would be a good place for a trap.

Yeah. I don't think it is an accident that Mace has stated he will lead the army.

On 12/21/2023 at 11:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

The Golden Company will only win if they are the ones doing the attacking. What we could see, I think, is something akin to the Battle of the Kingsroad at the end of the Dance, or, perhaps, even something loosely based on the German attack on Varus' legions. We have no clue how broad and movable the Kingsroad in the Kingswood is, so there might be a good chance for a trap there.

Golden Company doesn't need to attack. Army of Reach is coming to them, and is coming to the castle. All that Golden Company needs to do is decide if they will risk the siege or receive Mace in the field.

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“On that we can agree,” Ser Kevan said, “but the girl is of the blood of Aegon the Conqueror, and I do not think she will be content to remain in Meereen forever. If she should reach these shores and join her strength to Lord Connington and this prince of his, feigned or no … we must destroy Connington and his pretender now, before Daenerys Stormborn can come west.”

Mace Tyrell crossed his arms. “I mean to do just that, ser. After the trials.”

As I said: Agincourt seems likely. Golden Company will "pull" Tyrell army to where they want them, and then face Mace in strong defensive positions.

While ambush on the way is possible, political reasons would make a victory in open battle preferable.

On 12/21/2023 at 11:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

No, the chances are equal for Mace commanding the army, Randyll commanding the army, or both of them jointly commanding the army. Aegon is yet dismissed by Mace and Randyll both in the Epilogue ... but that is before the fall of Storm's End. Once the castle falls and news arrive that the boy has proclaimed himself there and is urging all Targaryen loyalists to do fealty to their rightful king they will take him very seriously.

Also, the double murder makes Mace Tyrell king in all but name. He might want to exploit and enjoy that. Yes, he is also hungry for glory in battle, that is something to consider ... but we have no clue how events will unfold with the trials of the queens. In the Epilogue he made it clear he would only bestir himself once his daughter is acquitted ... so if this is going to take time, say, because Margaery wants her reputation restored completely and insists on a Faith trial even after Kevan's removal would allow them to have King Tommen declare Margaery innocent, then Mace might decide to send Randyll against Aegon.

Mace and Randyll both marching against Aegon and were, for some reason, to take the bulk of the Reach forces with them would also give Cersei freer reign to try to do some mischief, especially in the field of fleeing the city.

And while Mace likes to brag ... the guy is actually a shrewd politician. He is not necessarily stupid enough to face the Golden Company without the help of a man like Tarly - who already seems to be a very close advisor to Mace in the Epilogue.

Mace is a shrewd politician, but that doesn't mean he cannot be self-centered. Look at how he presents Battle of Ashford:

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The present Lord of Highgarden, Mace Tyrell, fought loyally for House Targaryen during Robert’s Rebellion, defeating Robert Baratheon himself at the Battle of Ashford and later besieging his brother Stannis in Storm’s End for the better part of a year. With the death of the Mad King Aerys II and his son Prince Rhaegar, however, Lord Mace laid down his sword, and is today once again Warden of the South and a leal servant of King Robert and the Iron Throne.
 

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Tyrion had to bite his tongue at that. Robb Stark had won more battles in a year than the Lord of Highgarden had in twenty. Tyrell’s reputation rested on one indecisive victory over Robert Baratheon at Ashford, in a battle largely won by Lord Tarly’s van before the main host had even arrived. The siege of Storm’s End, where Mace Tyrell actually did hold the command, had dragged on a year to no result, and after the Trident was fought, the Lord of Highgarden had meekly dipped his banners to Eddard Stark.
 

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Sam felt his face turning red. “No, my lady. Your Grace. I mean, I am, yes. I’m Samwell Tarly, yes.”

“Your father is an able soldier,” King Stannis said. “He defeated my brother once, at Ashford. Mace Tyrell has been pleased to claim the honors for that victory, but Lord Randyll had decided matters before Tyrell ever found the battlefield. He slew Lord Cafferen with that great Valyrian sword of his and sent his head to Aerys.” The king rubbed his jaw with a finger. “You are not the sort of son I would expect such a man to have.”

That is not an accident, I think. Mace will not let somebody else take away what he himself sees as an easy victory.

On 12/21/2023 at 11:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

Strickland is right now very pleasantly surprised by their miraculous successes ... but that is an indication how quickly they might jump ship if things start to go awry.

And if Aegon is still down to 5,000-6,000 Golden Company men at Storm's End ... how likely is it that those guys are willing to really bleed and die against 30,000-40,000 Reach men? They would face an enemy which outnumbers them multiple times. An enemy who is also quite rich and could buy them off.

It is more likely we are going to see some crumbling in the Reach camp, especially if Mathis Rowan were to survive the fall of Storm's End and ended up in camp Aegon.

Some contracts are writ in blood. And even ignoring that, Golden Company has been presented as a group that never breaks a contract. That is why them leaving the campaign in the Disputed Lands was such a surprise - and the only reason they did so was the fact that they had aforementioned contract which outweighted any contract made for gold. They retreated during the Blackfyre Rebellions, yes, but only after whoever they were fighting for had been killed first.

To treat them like they are your typical sellsword company is to engage in headcanon with no textual support.

That being said, I do agree that it will not be just a head-on fight. Consider this:

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Laswell Peake rapped his knuckles on the table. “Even after a century, some of us still have friends in the Reach. The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines."

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And whilst they dither, we will send out word secretly to likely friends in the stormlands and the Reach. And Dorne.” That was the crucial step. Lesser lords might join their cause for fear of harm or hope of gain, but only the Prince of Dorne had the power to defy House Lannister and its allies. “Above all else, we must have Doran Martell.”

Now, it might be that said "friends in the Reach" will simply join the Golden Company... but more likely scenario I see is that of a parallel betrayal: in the North, Manderlys will betray Bolton and attack from the rear, helping Stannis win. In the Stormlands, parts of the Reach host will betray the Tyrells and attack from the rear, helping Aegon win.

On 12/21/2023 at 11:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

My point simply is that without us being able to predict where the story is going we would think that chances are actually very high that Aegon will fail completely.

Just as would have expected Renly to triumph in ACoK as he was the strongest pretender or Stannis to win on the Blackwater.

The story is driving events here, not realistic portrayal of military stuff. Which is why guys like the Dothraki will play the role of the terrifying Hun or Mongol hordes ... and not that of some lousy and badly conceived morons. Assuming they will play a big role in the story at all.

Except we do have ways to predict where the story is going. They are not 100% certain, but Martin does leave clues and parallels, both to the real-life events he had been inspired by and to other events in the story.

Neither Renly's death nor Stannis' defeat happened out of the blue either. We see shadow baby being used on Ser Cortnay Penrose long before the parley between Renly and Stannis. And Stannis' defeat was also set up in advance: finding the wildfire, Stannis' supporters being killed by Reachmen in fighting on Bitterbridge, and hell, rest of Renly's army being at Bitterbridge in the first place. And then Edmure blocking Tywin's way seals the deal.

You say that story is driving the events and you are correct. You just seem to prefer your own headcanon to the actual story.

And no, there is nothing to indicate that the Dothraki will play the role of the terrifying Hun or Mongol hordes in Westeros... we see as much when we see that Dothraki have no clue on how to fight against an armored opponent. The only people who expected them to do so other than Dothraki themselves were Viserys and Jorah. And Jorah doesn't seem exactly convinced.

Not to mention that Westeros has literally everything that ever gave Mongols the trouble. Knights, castles and longbowmen.

On 12/21/2023 at 11:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

Wyman Manderly's throat has just been (kind of) cut by a Frey blade, and the man is too fat to sit a horse, anyway. He won't go anywhere. The only thing he is doing is going to die at Winterfell. Perhaps in some struggle that might also lead to the end of Roose and/or Ramsay. If Roose is gone then Ramsay won't last two seconds, as Barbrey Dustin's men might immediately bring her his head. If not, then they would at least turn on him, abandon him, or butcher the guardians of this or that gate to let Stannis' forces in.

In light of the Davos situation chances are pretty bad that the Manderlys will effectively turn on anyone. They might stay out of the Frey attack or attack them from the rear after Stannis' trap has been sprung. But Wyman would have instructed them to tread very carefully with Stannis as the guy is not likely to trust them until they actually kind of prove that Davos is still alive. Something they could, perhaps, do by way of handing him a letter written in Davos' hand.

And Frey is leading the army marching against Stannis, IIRC. Wyman's throat getting kind-of-cut makes Manderly betrayal more likely, not less so. The only question is what shape it will take.

[Aldarion]

Part 2 of the series:

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2023/12/24/fantasy-army-dothraki-part-2-tactics/

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Nomadic battle tactics generally favored deception, feigned retreats and ambushes. In combat, nomads such as Huns would form army into several units of irregular size with a separate force in reserve, ready to spring an ambush.

Huns

Hunnic tactics were based on their hunting tactics, which were based around mounted archery. They would attack the enemy by bombarding them with arrows while approaching, shoot from very close distance before stopping and then withdraw while still shooting. This tactic was very effective against generally not well protected barbarian infantry, especially since barbarians and Romans both lacked sufficient foot archers to deal with the Hunnic archers (unlike later Byzantine armies).

But the above does not mean that Huns did not train. In fact, Hunnic (and Mongol) tactics and warfare requred as much training to be effective as that of the professional sedentary armies they faced. The martial lifestyle came to them no more naturally than it did to the sedentary populations. Effective employment of horse archers required proper spacing between the horses to give room for maneuvering, and sufficient number of horses must have been had not only to provide mounts but also to replace any losses.

 

[Lord Varys]

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Why mention it if it will be unimportant?

I guess that was mostly something to illustrate the fact that it is autumn approaching winter. In KL it is snowing already, so chances are pretty good, actually, that it might be snowing at Storm's End and in the Kingswood, too. Either already or soon enough, meaning the fighting at or close to Storm's End might be fought at freezing temperatures and in the snow.

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Golden Company doesn't need to attack. Army of Reach is coming to them, and is coming to the castle. All that Golden Company needs to do is decide if they will risk the siege or receive Mace in the field.

Jon Connington is a Stormlord, so he would know the terrain. The Golden Company do not. But Mace Tyrell and many of his men twice besieged Storm's End for months - first during the Rebellion, then in AFfC. They know the surrounding territory, too, including the situation alongside the Kingsroad.

He still might make mistakes, of course, but not because he doesn't know what's coming.

Chances that the Golden Company could dig in or put themselves in a favorable position somewhere outside Storm's End is also not that likely, as I doubt that the place right outside a castle serving as the capital of a former kingdom is particularly well-suited for battle. We should expect farms and fields and small villages outside the place.

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That is not an accident, I think. Mace will not let somebody else take away what he himself sees as an easy victory.

Certainly, but Tarly was serving under Mace at Ashford. He was the commanding general and Tarly's liege lord. The victory was his as every victory of some lesser officer is the victory of the general. People seem to ridicule Mace for the impression that his claim there is that Mace himself was doing the commanding on the battlefield ... but that is actually only a technicality.

It is not impossible that Mace might leave Randyll behind to keep the peace in KL ... but I don't think that's all that likely. Not after the fall of Storm's End. And not after the double murder further destabilized the situation while putting all legal power in Mace's hands.

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Some contracts are writ in blood. And even ignoring that, Golden Company has been presented as a group that never breaks a contract. That is why them leaving the campaign in the Disputed Lands was such a surprise - and the only reason they did so was the fact that they had aforementioned contract which outweighted any contract made for gold. They retreated during the Blackfyre Rebellions, yes, but only after whoever they were fighting for had been killed first.

That is what Illyrio Mopatis said ... not what Harry Strickland said. The support of the Golden Company officers for Prince Aegon is lukewarm at best, as Jon Connington realizes. Aegon's speech helps a lot, but they are not buying his story. Some of them might even know that Aegon his fake - which could easily be the case if Myles Toyne who plotted with Varys and Illyrio knew or suspected the truth and let something slip.

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

To treat them like they are your typical sellsword company is to engage in headcanon with no textual support.

They are not like any other free company, to be sure. But they are not the people you would rely on as your core support to conquer and hold the Iron Throne. For that they need full Dornish support, at least.

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That being said, I do agree that it will not be just a head-on fight. Consider this:

Now, it might be that said "friends in the Reach" will simply join the Golden Company... but more likely scenario I see is that of a parallel betrayal: in the North, Manderlys will betray Bolton and attack from the rear, helping Stannis win. In the Stormlands, parts of the Reach host will betray the Tyrells and attack from the rear, helping Aegon win.

That sounds like too much open betrayal. Men standing aside, yes, lords declaring for Aegon without them actually being part of Mace's army - yes, too. But an open stab in the back is unusual for the Reach men.

The Golden Company's friends in the Reach might be the likes of Lord Titus Peake and, especially, Orton Merryweather and wife since Orton himself and/or his late father and grandfather could actually have served with the Golden Company while they were in exile.

Mathis Rowan standing beside Aegon and Connington could give a lot of Reach levies pause - especially men sworn to or with close ties to Goldengrave - but there is little chance Randyll Tarly would betray Mace. At his side the guy wields almost royal power now, nothing that Aegon can offer him could beat that.

This friends thing is more something that should play out after Mace doesn't win or outright loses a battle. Then the Reach will fully rediscover their Targaryen loyalty, not before.

Logistically, the Golden Company should have no chance to reach out to any men in Mace's army. Of course, Varys could do that back in KL.

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Neither Renly's death nor Stannis' defeat happened out of the blue either. We see shadow baby being used on Ser Cortnay Penrose long before the parley between Renly and Stannis.

Ah, no? The Penrose incident happens afterwards. The foreshadowing of Stannis' defeat is that his whole magic thing is too successful. He has success, success, success ... that can't continue forever.

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And Stannis' defeat was also set up in advance: finding the wildfire, Stannis' supporters being killed by Reachmen in fighting on Bitterbridge, and hell, rest of Renly's army being at Bitterbridge in the first place. And then Edmure blocking Tywin's way seals the deal.

Stannis is defeated by the Lannister-Tyrell alliance ... and the fact that Tywin and Mace could team up in time and attack together. There is little foreshadowing for that, actually. The wildfire-and-chain plan slows him down, but couldn't have defeated him.

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And no, there is nothing to indicate that the Dothraki will play the role of the terrifying Hun or Mongol hordes in Westeros... we see as much when we see that Dothraki have no clue on how to fight against an armored opponent. The only people who expected them to do so other than Dothraki themselves were Viserys and Jorah. And Jorah doesn't seem exactly convinced.

There is a lot of such foreshadowing in AGoT. Sure enough, when the invasion doesn't happen that plot kind of disappeared. But it might be back in the game, and now they can only be more devastating, invading a war-torn, starving country.

And if they will arrive, they will arrive when Aegon and Euron have made things much worse than they are right now. 

18 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And Frey is leading the army marching against Stannis, IIRC. Wyman's throat getting kind-of-cut makes Manderly betrayal more likely, not less so. The only question is what shape it will take.

I'm sure Wyman had some chance to brief the guy who is going to lead his army ... because he himself wouldn't have done it even before his injury. But the point remains that the guy is a dead man walking (or right now rather a dead man lying down, I imagine).

But you have to keep track of the numbers. Wyman brought about 300 men to Winterfell, but the Freys are there with 2,000.

I'm not saying that a Manderly attack on the Frey rear during the battle at the lake wouldn't have a profound effect ... but this is something even a hothead like Hosteen Frey should expect after his attack on Wyman. If there are no clashes between the Freys and Manderlys up to that point then we would expect the Freys to really guard their rear against such a surprise attack.

[Aldarion]

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

I guess that was mostly something to illustrate the fact that it is autumn approaching winter. In KL it is snowing already, so chances are pretty good, actually, that it might be snowing at Storm's End and in the Kingswood, too. Either already or soon enough, meaning the fighting at or close to Storm's End might be fought at freezing temperatures and in the snow.

Yeah, I don't think it will be just that.

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

Jon Connington is a Stormlord, so he would know the terrain. The Golden Company do not. But Mace Tyrell and many of his men twice besieged Storm's End for months - first during the Rebellion, then in AFfC. They know the surrounding territory, too, including the situation alongside the Kingsroad.

He still might make mistakes, of course, but not because he doesn't know what's coming.

Chances that the Golden Company could dig in or put themselves in a favorable position somewhere outside Storm's End is also not that likely, as I doubt that the place right outside a castle serving as the capital of a former kingdom is particularly well-suited for battle. We should expect farms and fields and small villages outside the place.

Possibly, though historically battles had been fought in worse conditions.

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

Certainly, but Tarly was serving under Mace at Ashford. He was the commanding general and Tarly's liege lord. The victory was his as every victory of some lesser officer is the victory of the general. People seem to ridicule Mace for the impression that his claim there is that Mace himself was doing the commanding on the battlefield ... but that is actually only a technicality.

It is not impossible that Mace might leave Randyll behind to keep the peace in KL ... but I don't think that's all that likely. Not after the fall of Storm's End. And not after the double murder further destabilized the situation while putting all legal power in Mace's hands.

Tarly was commanding Mace's vanguard, but Mace was in the overall command. And at Ashford, Mace didn't yet have an overinflated ego and sense of his own military capability... it was in fact Ashford that created it, or at least blew it up.

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is what Illyrio Mopatis said ... not what Harry Strickland said. The support of the Golden Company officers for Prince Aegon is lukewarm at best, as Jon Connington realizes. Aegon's speech helps a lot, but they are not buying his story. Some of them might even know that Aegon his fake - which could easily be the case if Myles Toyne who plotted with Varys and Illyrio knew or suspected the truth and let something slip.

Again, look at the parallels Martin is drawing: Golden Company is the closest thing we have to the Swiss mercenaries in the setting. Their reputation certainly is created to bring to mind the Swiss.

So while them running away while Aegon is still alive is a possibility, it doesn't really fit.

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

They are not like any other free company, to be sure. But they are not the people you would rely on as your core support to conquer and hold the Iron Throne. For that they need full Dornish support, at least.

Agreed.

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

That sounds like too much open betrayal. Men standing aside, yes, lords declaring for Aegon without them actually being part of Mace's army - yes, too. But an open stab in the back is unusual for the Reach men.

The Golden Company's friends in the Reach might be the likes of Lord Titus Peake and, especially, Orton Merryweather and wife since Orton himself and/or his late father and grandfather could actually have served with the Golden Company while they were in exile.

Mathis Rowan standing beside Aegon and Connington could give a lot of Reach levies pause - especially men sworn to or with close ties to Goldengrave - but there is little chance Randyll Tarly would betray Mace. At his side the guy wields almost royal power now, nothing that Aegon can offer him could beat that.

This friends thing is more something that should play out after Mace doesn't win or outright loses a battle. Then the Reach will fully rediscover their Targaryen loyalty, not before.

Logistically, the Golden Company should have no chance to reach out to any men in Mace's army. Of course, Varys could do that back in KL.

Agreed for the most part. But regarding Tarly, we know he was a staunch Targaryen loyalist during the rebellion. He also has a bone to pick with Mace for multiple insults - Mace Tyrell has claimed credit for beating Robert and for besieging Storm's End, and Tarlys IIRC actually have a blood claim to Highgarden.

Kevan was also quite sure that both Tarly and Rowan were ready to jump the ship:

Quote

“Mathis Rowan is sensible, prudent, well liked,” her uncle went on, oblivious. “Randyll Tarly is the finest soldier in the realm. A poor Hand for peacetime, but with Tywin dead there’s no better man to finish this war. Lord Tyrell cannot take offense if you choose one of his own bannermen as Hand. Both Tarly and Rowan are able men... and loyal. Name either one, and you make him yours. You strengthen yourself and weaken Highgarden, yet Mace will likely thank you for it.” He gave a shrug. “That is my counsel, take it or no. You may make Moon Boy your Hand for all I care. My brother is dead, woman. I am going to take him home.”

And consider Rowan in ASoS when Tywin brings up Elia and her children:

Quote

“Prince Doran comes at my son’s invitation,” Lord Tywin said calmly, “not only to join in our celebration, but to claim his seat on this council, and the justice Robert denied him for the murder of his sister Elia and her children.”
Tyrion watched the faces of the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan, wondering if any of the three would be bold enough to say, “But Lord Tywin, wasn’t it you who presented the bodies to Robert, all wrapped up in Lannister cloaks?” None of them did, but it was there on their faces all the same. Redwyne does not give a fig, he thought, but Rowan looks fit to gag.

So Rowan is almost certain to betray the Tyrells for Aegon. And while this is not a hard proof, fact is that Kevan named Tarly and Rowan in the same breath as people who may be willing to abandon the Tyrells.

Of course, it might be that it will, as you say, only come into play after the battle. Or they may choose to "sit it out" in order to spare their men. But I do believe their lack of loyalty to Tyrells will come to play at some point.

EDIT:

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

Ah, no? The Penrose incident happens afterwards. The foreshadowing of Stannis' defeat is that his whole magic thing is too successful. He has success, success, success ... that can't continue forever.

 

OK, thanks.

But do note that Stannis will not be relying on magic in his battle against the Boltons. Melisandre is still at Castle Black. And his reliance on Melisandre's prophecies and magic has already brought him a defeat - it was Melisandre's misinterpretation (though acceptable mistake) of vision that led to Stannis killing Renly.

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

Stannis is defeated by the Lannister-Tyrell alliance ... and the fact that Tywin and Mace could team up in time and attack together. There is little foreshadowing for that, actually. The wildfire-and-chain plan slows him down, but couldn't have defeated him.

There actually is. Fact that he fails to obtain the Tyrell infantry, for example. That spells out "Stannis is in trouble" big time.

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

There is a lot of such foreshadowing in AGoT. Sure enough, when the invasion doesn't happen that plot kind of disappeared. But it might be back in the game, and now they can only be more devastating, invading a war-torn, starving country.

And if they will arrive, they will arrive when Aegon and Euron have made things much worse than they are right now. 

I do not remember any. Even Robert is more worried about lords declaring for Viserys than about Dothraki themselves.

On 12/24/2023 at 4:20 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm sure Wyman had some chance to brief the guy who is going to lead his army ... because he himself wouldn't have done it even before his injury. But the point remains that the guy is a dead man walking (or right now rather a dead man lying down, I imagine).

But you have to keep track of the numbers. Wyman brought about 300 men to Winterfell, but the Freys are there with 2,000.

I'm not saying that a Manderly attack on the Frey rear during the battle at the lake wouldn't have a profound effect ... but this is something even a hothead like Hosteen Frey should expect after his attack on Wyman. If there are no clashes between the Freys and Manderlys up to that point then we would expect the Freys to really guard their rear against such a surprise attack.

Agreed... though on the flip side, people have done dumber things. And Hosteen is portrayed as a dumbass, from what I remember.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Aldarion
accidentally posted

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Possibly, though historically battles had been fought in worse conditions.

Sure, but if it is 6,000+ against about 30,000 or even 40,000 then, well, the Golden Company would have to be in a really, really good position if they are doing a pitched battle. And I don't see that so far.

Although, granted, the reader has yet to get a proper description of Storm's End and its surroundings, so perhaps there are places for that. George still can make them up on the fly without any contradiction.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Tarly was commanding Mace's vanguard, but Mace was in the overall command. And at Ashford, Mace didn't yet have an overinflated ego and sense of his own military capability... it was in fact Ashford that created it, or at least blew it up.

I think that ego was always there, at least if we can believe Olenna. Mace is a spoiled boy.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Again, look at the parallels Martin is drawing: Golden Company is the closest thing we have to the Swiss mercenaries in the setting. Their reputation certainly is created to bring to mind the Swiss.

So while them running away while Aegon is still alive is a possibility, it doesn't really fit.

Oh, I didn't necessarily mean running away - although that would be a chance, too, if they were to lose their castles as quickly as they gained them. I was thinking about them jumping ship.

If you reread ADwD you might notice that Strickland himself - the captain-general - is the one who insist the most that they need Dany and the dragons for legitimacy/strength. That could easily enough foreshadow him jumping ship and joining the real dragon with the real dragons once she arrives.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Agreed.

Agreed for the most part. But regarding Tarly, we know he was a staunch Targaryen loyalist during the rebellion. He also has a bone to pick with Mace for multiple insults - Mace Tyrell has claimed credit for beating Robert and for besieging Storm's End, and Tarlys IIRC actually have a blood claim to Highgarden.

Ah, there you are confusing the Tarlys and the Florents. Randyll seems to be the kind of loyal vassal who totally glues himself to his liege lord - like we have with the guys who chain themselves to Stannis now or who died with/for Aegon II in the end.

Randyll's wife and Sam's and Dickon's mother is actually a Florent, Melessa, the daughter of Lord Alester, niece of Ser Axell, and first cousin to Queen Selyse. Yet Randyll is the one who slaughtered an unknown number of Florent men at Bitterbridge after the return of Loras Tyrell. If the man contemplated betrayal it should have been around that time, one imagines, not when we talk about some foreign pretender who might be false, anyway. If the guy is butchering the levies of his father-in-law for the sake of his liege lord's favorite son then it is quite clear where his allegiance lies.

Randyll gained a lot during his current service to Mace. Not immediately after the Blackwater, but thereafter. At Maidenpool he married his heir to the heiress of Lord Mooton, and he joined the Small Council after the return to court in ADwD. The guy is on his way up, and jumping ship couldn't benefit him even remotely more than just crushing Aegon.

Doesn't mean he cannot jump ship eventually. But only when he and Mace find themselves on the losing side, I'd think.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Kevan was also quite sure that both Tarly and Rowan were ready to jump the ship.

That is not really jumping ship but being grateful and loyal to Cersei. Kevan, Jaime, and Cersei all have no clue that the Tyrells murdered Joff. They view them as rivals for power within their own coalition, they don't view them as enemies. The smart thing about the advice was indeed that Cersei picking one of Mace's own bannermen would make it hard for him to feel slighted and could lead to the Lannisters winning a loyal friend.

But that works only in a setting where they are not already enemies.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And consider Rowan in ASoS when Tywin brings up Elia and her children:

So Rowan is almost certain to betray the Tyrells for Aegon. And while this is not a hard proof, fact is that Kevan named Tarly and Rowan in the same breath as people who may be willing to abandon the Tyrells.

Of course, it might be that it will, as you say, only come into play after the battle. Or they may choose to "sit it out" in order to spare their men. But I do believe their lack of loyalty to Tyrells will come to play at some point.

Mathis Rowan is another case entirely. This guy seems to be not only a popular and influential man throughout the Reach and beyond (he is the only Reach lord to join the Small Council after the Blackwater in addition to Mace and Paxter), but also one of the genuine Targaryen loyalists in the Reach. Tyrion thinks that Paxter and Mace don't really give shit about the crimes the rebels committed these days (or they are much better at hiding their true feelings), but Mathis actually does.

And that will definitely play a role. But since George has confirmed that Mathis Rowan is right now commanding the token siege force Mace left behind at Storm's End when he returned to KL in ADwD, he will either die, be captured and/or (eventually) join Aegon in the wake of the taking of Storm's End.

In that capacity he cannot directly influence what happens in the Tyrell army. But him declaring his allegiance for Aegon, vouching for him being the rightful king, etc. could have a considerable impact. A good chunk of Mace's army could include men loyal to Goldengrave.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

But do note that Stannis will not be relying on magic in his battle against the Boltons. Melisandre is still at Castle Black. And his reliance on Melisandre's prophecies and magic has already brought him a defeat - it was Melisandre's misinterpretation (though acceptable mistake) of vision that led to Stannis killing Renly.

Oh, I meant that the magic thing kind of got old as a plot device. That is why you can see it won't work all the time. We also have that with Daenerys and Jon ADwD. One gets killed, the other nearly avoids a poisoning effectively loses all she has built in Meereen. It is not up, up, up even for the characters with plot armor.

With Stannis right now chances are pretty good for him to turn the tide this time as the overall feeling of the chapters has him at the end of the rope. There would be no surprise or twist at all if he were to lose after the Pink Letter already claimed he lost.

And since Theon 1 isn't a chapter we would, normally, read before TWoW it is quite clear that this changed tone of Stannis being confident and learning in time about the Karstark betrayal is something that is actually intended as a surprise for the next book.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

There actually is. Fact that he fails to obtain the Tyrell infantry, for example. That spells out "Stannis is in trouble" big time.

Only a bit. In and of itself it can become a problem, but only because the Tyrells ended up joining Joffrey thanks to Littlefinger's successful negotiation and the lucky accident that they could team up with Tywin in time.

In the end, though, it is actually Littlefinger's ploy with Garlan wearing Renly's armor that decides things. That is what breaks the spirit of the men who originally fought for Renly and who now made up the bulk of Stannis' army.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I do not remember any. Even Robert is more worried about lords declaring for Viserys than about Dothraki themselves.

Oh, come on. When Ned tells Robert that they would throw them back into the sea it is quite clear that the reader should realize that this might not be so easy after all.

3 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Agreed... though on the flip side, people have done dumber things. And Hosteen is portrayed as a dumbass, from what I remember.

A hothead and impatient, but not completely stupid. Still, of course, the death of Aenys Frey is another convenient thing for Stannis.

Spoiler

What we know from a couple of pages of the first Asha chapter of TWoW is that Hosteen's men successfully butchered Mors Umber and his lads outside Winterfell. The Freys are now using Mors Umber's head as their battle standard. They are effective, even if their leader is rash.

And again - Hosteen was the guy who kind of cut Wyman's throat. If I were putting myself into his shoes it would not surprise me if he was going on a little Manderly hunt before bothering with freezing Stannis.

And even if not - the guy wouldn't view the Manderlys as his allies in a fight against Stannis, so chances that they will be actually surprised by a Manderly attack are pretty low.

At best I could see the Manderlys staying aside or attacking the remaining Freys after the bulk of their cavalry rode onto the lake and broke through the ice. But at that time the Freys would have already lost the battle.

With Hosteen commanding the Freys chances are also pretty good that Stannis doesn't have to reveal the Karstark double betrayal yet. I'd imagine that he positions his troops in such a manner that Hosteen would assume they are already done and easy targets, inviting them to charge ahead and into their deaths. That part of the battle can technically be won without (m)any losses on Stannis' part.

But the real danger would be the Bolton army, anyway.

[Aldarion]

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but if it is 6,000+ against about 30,000 or even 40,000 then, well, the Golden Company would have to be in a really, really good position if they are doing a pitched battle. And I don't see that so far.

Although, granted, the reader has yet to get a proper description of Storm's End and its surroundings, so perhaps there are places for that. George still can make them up on the fly without any contradiction.

That is my point, actually. Martin is heavily inspired by historical battles, and with Connington thinking about usefulness of archers and mention of rain, it makes me think George is looking to recreate Agincourt. Where, interestingly, English had some 6 000 - 8 000 men against cca 25 000 men on the French side.

Golden Company having only 6 000 men there is almost a dead ringer for the English at Agincourt.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

I think that ego was always there, at least if we can believe Olenna. Mace is a spoiled boy.

Ego maybe yes, but I don't think he will have believed himself a superb military leader.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I didn't necessarily mean running away - although that would be a chance, too, if they were to lose their castles as quickly as they gained them. I was thinking about them jumping ship.

If you reread ADwD you might notice that Strickland himself - the captain-general - is the one who insist the most that they need Dany and the dragons for legitimacy/strength. That could easily enough foreshadow him jumping ship and joining the real dragon with the real dragons once she arrives.

That is a possibility, yes.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

Ah, there you are confusing the Tarlys and the Florents. Randyll seems to be the kind of loyal vassal who totally glues himself to his liege lord - like we have with the guys who chain themselves to Stannis now or who died with/for Aegon II in the end.

Randyll's wife and Sam's and Dickon's mother is actually a Florent, Melessa, the daughter of Lord Alester, niece of Ser Axell, and first cousin to Queen Selyse. Yet Randyll is the one who slaughtered an unknown number of Florent men at Bitterbridge after the return of Loras Tyrell. If the man contemplated betrayal it should have been around that time, one imagines, not when we talk about some foreign pretender who might be false, anyway. If the guy is butchering the levies of his father-in-law for the sake of his liege lord's favorite son then it is quite clear where his allegiance lies.

Randyll gained a lot during his current service to Mace. Not immediately after the Blackwater, but thereafter. At Maidenpool he married his heir to the heiress of Lord Mooton, and he joined the Small Council after the return to court in ADwD. The guy is on his way up, and jumping ship couldn't benefit him even remotely more than just crushing Aegon.

Doesn't mean he cannot jump ship eventually. But only when he and Mace find themselves on the losing side, I'd think.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

Mathis Rowan is another case entirely. This guy seems to be not only a popular and influential man throughout the Reach and beyond (he is the only Reach lord to join the Small Council after the Blackwater in addition to Mace and Paxter), but also one of the genuine Targaryen loyalists in the Reach. Tyrion thinks that Paxter and Mace don't really give shit about the crimes the rebels committed these days (or they are much better at hiding their true feelings), but Mathis actually does.

And that will definitely play a role. But since George has confirmed that Mathis Rowan is right now commanding the token siege force Mace left behind at Storm's End when he returned to KL in ADwD, he will either die, be captured and/or (eventually) join Aegon in the wake of the taking of Storm's End.

In that capacity he cannot directly influence what happens in the Tyrell army. But him declaring his allegiance for Aegon, vouching for him being the rightful king, etc. could have a considerable impact. A good chunk of Mace's army could include men loyal to Goldengrave.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I meant that the magic thing kind of got old as a plot device. That is why you can see it won't work all the time. We also have that with Daenerys and Jon ADwD. One gets killed, the other nearly avoids a poisoning effectively loses all she has built in Meereen. It is not up, up, up even for the characters with plot armor.

With Stannis right now chances are pretty good for him to turn the tide this time as the overall feeling of the chapters has him at the end of the rope. There would be no surprise or twist at all if he were to lose after the Pink Letter already claimed he lost.

And since Theon 1 isn't a chapter we would, normally, read before TWoW it is quite clear that this changed tone of Stannis being confident and learning in time about the Karstark betrayal is something that is actually intended as a surprise for the next book.

Agreed.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

Only a bit. In and of itself it can become a problem, but only because the Tyrells ended up joining Joffrey thanks to Littlefinger's successful negotiation and the lucky accident that they could team up with Tywin in time.

In the end, though, it is actually Littlefinger's ploy with Garlan wearing Renly's armor that decides things. That is what breaks the spirit of the men who originally fought for Renly and who now made up the bulk of Stannis' army.

When it comes to actual tactics / strategy, yes. What I was talking about however is narrative foreshadowing.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, come on. When Ned tells Robert that they would throw them back into the sea it is quite clear that the reader should realize that this might not be so easy after all.

Why?

And if we take Daznak's Pit as foreshadowing - which I think it is - then implications are basically that Dothraki will get initial successes in Westeros, but Westerosi will adapt to their tactics and then Dothraki will get slaughtered in short order. We even get a "no true Scotsman" fallacy:

Quote

After the beast fights came a mock battle, pitting six men on foot against six horsemen, the former armed with shields and longswords, the latter with Dothraki arakhs. The mock knights were clad in mail hauberks, whilst the mock Dothraki wore no armor. At first the riders seemed to have the advantage, riding down two of their foes and slashing the ear from a third, but then the surviving knights began to attack the horses, and one by one the riders were unmounted and slain, to Jhiqui’s great disgust. “That was no true khalasar,” she said.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:52 AM, Lord Varys said:

And again - Hosteen was the guy who kind of cut Wyman's throat. If I were putting myself into his shoes it would not surprise me if he was going on a little Manderly hunt before bothering with freezing Stannis.

And even if not - the guy wouldn't view the Manderlys as his allies in a fight against Stannis, so chances that they will be actually surprised by a Manderly attack are pretty low.

At best I could see the Manderlys staying aside or attacking the remaining Freys after the bulk of their cavalry rode onto the lake and broke through the ice. But at that time the Freys would have already lost the battle.

With Hosteen commanding the Freys chances are also pretty good that Stannis doesn't have to reveal the Karstark double betrayal yet. I'd imagine that he positions his troops in such a manner that Hosteen would assume they are already done and easy targets, inviting them to charge ahead and into their deaths. That part of the battle can technically be won without (m)any losses on Stannis' part.

But the real danger would be the Bolton army, anyway.

Yeah, I imagine that is what the holes in the ice are. Stannis may position his army with "weak" flanks towards the iced-over lakes, leading Frey men to fall through the ice to their death.

[astarkchoice]

Hmm  been ina few of these always interesting when civil.

Personaly font think they will come to westeros at this stage but if they did theres the issue of long winter..its started snowing knee deep up north but wr can assume.for plot reasons down south will be milder for like half a book or so!.

 

The dothraki as iv said before to work would need to be soooo  amazing at horsemanship, bowmanship ,swordplay/hand to hand  and high speed teamwork as individuals  that your pretty much talking lotr elves/high fantasy  levels ! That OR theyd need to be willing to take horrific attrition rates for win like modern day isis fanatics!

One of the great advantages of all horse nomads is nerfed, strategic speed , westeros has its own raven internet thus suprise is far harder! 

That said only an idiot would deny that IF you can get them across water and IF you can give them guides who know where to forgage etc their sheer numbers cannot be denied as a game changer.

They have some obvious uses like the mountains riverland raids they can draw a regions forces away to protect lands and villages  leaving less concentrated forces to oppose your main army , scouting (as we see with stark vs lannisters early battles  scouting is massivly important) , using their sheer speed to ensure they occupy  the good ground for a battle if 2 armies are closeby and of course if they catch an infantry force marching in columms to meet them not formed up theyd ride them down!

[Aldarion]

Part 3:

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2023/12/31/fantasy-army-dothraki-part-3-weapons-and-equipment/

Quote

Aside from tactics and organization, superior technology was in fact crucial for successes of nomadic armies against their sedentary opponents. Scythians and later Mongols used lamellar armor at the time when their opponents used mail. It was the Mongols who introduced cannons to the Islamic world and may have introduced them to Europe as well.

Primary nomadic weapon was a composite bow, composed of at least three layers of different materials (compare to self bows which are from a single piece and laminated bows which have several layers of the same material). For most nomads, three materials used in composite bows were wood, horn and sinew. Wood formed the core and the grip of the bow, and was backed by sinew to add tensile strength. It was then fronted by horn whose springiness allowed bow to quickly return to its original shape. As a result, composite bow transfers energy to arrow far more efficiently than the self bow does. Composite bows are also often recurved, reflexed, or both. This allows more potential energy to be stored in the limbs at full draw without increasing draw length, since tension is preloaded on even undrawn strung bow. As a result, recurved / reflexed composite bow will be far more powerful than a D-shaped self bow of the same draw weight.

 

[SaffronLady]

The Mongol army introduced cannons to the Islamic world, but it wasn't the Mongols themselves that had the tech, though. Just pointing out how preserving and integrating people who possess higher warcraft is part of what made the Mongols powerful.

To a lesser extent this also applies to the Rouran Khaganate and their Turk ironsmiths.

[Aldarion]

2 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

The Mongol army introduced cannons to the Islamic world, but it wasn't the Mongols themselves that had the tech, though. Just pointing out how preserving and integrating people who possess higher warcraft is part of what made the Mongols powerful.

To a lesser extent this also applies to the Rouran Khaganate and their Turk ironsmiths.

Yes, Mongols widely used assistance of foreign specialists, such as Chinese siege engineers.

In fact, they failed in their 1241 invasion of Hungary precisely because said specialists were not available (distance was too great).

[Lord Varys]

On 12/27/2023 at 11:17 PM, Aldarion said:

That is my point, actually. Martin is heavily inspired by historical battles, and with Connington thinking about usefulness of archers and mention of rain, it makes me think George is looking to recreate Agincourt. Where, interestingly, English had some 6 000 - 8 000 men against cca 25 000 men on the French side.

Golden Company having only 6 000 men there is almost a dead ringer for the English at Agincourt.

Pretty sure the archers will come in handy in the coming battle, especially Black Balaq's own 50 Summer Islanders with goldenheart bows.

But since Aegon has only about 6,000 men he only has 600 archers which him (Connington put about 100 on each ship) ... which isn't necessary an archery advantage over an army of 30,000 or 40,000 men which could - and likely does - include thousands of archers.

What I haven't contemplated so far is that things could disintegrate further by way of assassinations. Varys himself might target more people within the Red Keep, but we could also see a paid assassin killing Mace and/or Randyll during the march or shortly before the battle. That would cause sufficient confusion for the army to disintegrate without a lot of fighting.

Aegon's success hinges not on him winning but on him suffering not many losses. If he wins technically but loses most of his men his campaign would look less and less promising. 

On 12/27/2023 at 11:17 PM, Aldarion said:

Ego maybe yes, but I don't think he will have believed himself a superb military leader.

I'm not sure he does. He just thinks he can get things done.

On 12/27/2023 at 11:17 PM, Aldarion said:

And if we take Daznak's Pit as foreshadowing - which I think it is - then implications are basically that Dothraki will get initial successes in Westeros, but Westerosi will adapt to their tactics and then Dothraki will get slaughtered in short order. We even get a "no true Scotsman" fallacy.

No, that is neither foreshadowing nor a 'no true Scotsman'. If I dress up like a Mongol I still am not a Mongol, right? And it is the same with a stage gladiatorial game in a fighting pit which is obviously rigged. It is even called a mock battle with the fighters being called mock fighters. Dany is a khaleesi, and the entire event is supposed to mock and humiliate her. It is no accident that the mock Dothraki lost there.

[Aldarion]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Pretty sure the archers will come in handy in the coming battle, especially Black Balaq's own 50 Summer Islanders with goldenheart bows.

But since Aegon has only about 6,000 men he only has 600 archers which him (Connington put about 100 on each ship) ... which isn't necessary an archery advantage over an army of 30,000 or 40,000 men which could - and likely does - include thousands of archers.

What I haven't contemplated so far is that things could disintegrate further by way of assassinations. Varys himself might target more people within the Red Keep, but we could also see a paid assassin killing Mace and/or Randyll during the march or shortly before the battle. That would cause sufficient confusion for the army to disintegrate without a lot of fighting.

Aegon's success hinges not on him winning but on him suffering not many losses. If he wins technically but loses most of his men his campaign would look less and less promising. 

Agreed.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, that is neither foreshadowing nor a 'no true Scotsman'. If I dress up like a Mongol I still am not a Mongol, right? And it is the same with a stage gladiatorial game in a fighting pit which is obviously rigged. It is even called a mock battle with the fighters being called mock fighters. Dany is a khaleesi, and the entire event is supposed to mock and humiliate her. It is no accident that the mock Dothraki lost there.

Foreshadowing is a literary technique, it doesn't need to be a prophecy within the text.

So what you wrote here still doesn't mean it isn't foreshadowing.

[Aldarion]

Final part, looking at what Dothraki might actually be able to do:

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2024/01/07/fantasy-army-dothraki-part-4-combat-performance/ 

Suffice to say, they would be outmatched by Westerosi in everything - including their putative strength, archery.

[SeanF]

On 12/31/2023 at 12:10 PM, Aldarion said:

Part 3:

https://warfantasy.wordpress.com/2023/12/31/fantasy-army-dothraki-part-3-weapons-and-equipment/

 

Steppe horsemen did remarkably well in war, for hundreds of years, given how badly outnumbered they were by sedentary peoples.  Finding a technological edge was part of it.  But, they were always on the lookout for new people.

Steppe people would have likely not sold Ogo’s women and children, or the Lhazareen, for they would be far too valuable as future members of the tribe.  When Dany suggests that the Dothraki marry the women, she’s actually proposing what would have been common in real life.

[Aldarion]

22 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Steppe horsemen did remarkably well in war, for hundreds of years, given how badly outnumbered they were by sedentary peoples.  Finding a technological edge was part of it.  But, they were always on the lookout for new people.

Steppe people would have likely not sold Ogo’s women and children, or the Lhazareen, for they would be far too valuable as future members of the tribe.  When Dany suggests that the Dothraki marry the women, she’s actually proposing what would have been common in real life.

Agreed. Dothraki go against literally everything that made successful steppe nomads so successful.

[SaffronLady]

23 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Steppe people would have likely not sold Ogo’s women and children, or the Lhazareen, for they would be far too valuable as future members of the tribe.

There is food viability to consider, too. Selling them off may be better to prevent food shortage, but we need the circumstances.

[SeanF]

16 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Agreed. Dothraki go against literally everything that made successful steppe nomads so successful.

Even under Genghis Khan, when they took vast numbers of captives, many as slaves, my impression is the Mongols weren’t looking to sell them.  They wanted wives, soldiers, artisans, and bureaucrats.