Eurovision 2024: Malmö, Sweden

[Ran]

We're just a month away from the start of Eurovision, and it's that time to share a few links to the popular, the weird, the bad! 

Bookmakers this year have been a bit interesting, in that for a long stretch Ukraine was the favorite, and then (bafflingly, IMO) Croatian group Baby Lasagna was on top, but now as pre-Eurovision performances have been going around, Switzerland's Nemo with the song "The Code" has opened a sizable margin.

But before we get to that, lets start our way down towards the bottom of the odds, where San Marino's Megara with the song 11:11 shares space with Moldova's Natalia Barbu and her song "In The Middle"

 

These aren't really crazy at all, they're just rather meh. To be honest, most of this year is just a series of "meh" songs, with very few that are truly out there. So I'll skip ahead through some of the other dead ends (per the bookmakers -- you can find updated odd aggregation here) to the next song that I at least think is interesting, which is Poland's Luna singing "The Tower"; the one  live performance is not the best (these pre-party events sometimes have dodgy acoustics), but here is the video:

 

Right now at the bottom of the Big 5 is Germany, with Isaak's "Always on the Run". Nothing wrong with it, just uninspiring:

Okay, here's a weird entry, just because the lyrics are kind of spacey and New Agey: Australia's Electric Fields, with "One Mikali (One Blood)":

 

Right above that in the odds is Hera Björk from Iceland with "Scared of Heights", which may be the lowest rated song according to visitors to Eurovision World (9500 ratings putting it at 1.9). Not sure it deserves quite that low a rating, but... meh again:

Next up from the Big 5, Spain's Nebulossa singing "Zorra". This has a certain fandom among the hardcore Eurovision fandom, and certainly it's got a nice rhythm, but I can't say Maria Bas's voice keeps up with it. The crowd in Spain loved it, though, as well  as the thong-and-corset-wearing male dancers.

From Denmark, we have Saba with "Sand",  presently sitting at 22 of 37 songs in the odds. This is pretty milquetoast too, but she sings it well:

Okay, here's a funny one, Estonia's 5miinust & Puuluup with the song "(nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi", which translates to: "We (Really) don't know anything about (these) drugs". Eurovision World has a handy multilingual lyric translation. First verse:

Quote

We're not junkies, we haven't done anything
The dresses we have on are dumpster-find
TV show COPS and a police raid in the cottage
The only bag here is full of deposit bottles

You can find live performances, but the video needs to be seen:

Slovenia's Raiven seems set to win the "Most Nearly Naked" prize this year, with "Veronika":

 

 

The video goes further, with mostly body paint and angles. Her voice isn't bad, though, I will say.

Georgia's Nutsa Buzaladze and "Firefighter" sits at 18 at the odds, and it sounds pretty good, but a live performance does not seem to be available which may or may not be a warning sign:

LADANIVA from Armenia has a very traditionally-inflected song called "Jako", about a girl who's constantly told to be modest but she wants to live freely and dance however much she wants:

Oh, here we go for odd -- Ireland, of course, the usual culprit! They've sent the artist Bambie Thug (bit of trivia: they are half-Swedish!) with "Doomsday Blue". Bambie Thug calls their music "Ouija-Pop", and ... well, listen to it:

 

I think it's a mess, but what do I know? Weirdly, someone in Sweden seemed to have a similar idea, entering this year's Melodifestivalen with a song called "Circus X":

 

Must be something in the Swedish-Irish water.

Next among my fellow Nordics is Norway's Gåte with "Ulveham" (Wolfskin), a neo-folk sort of thing that has very few lyrics (two verses) and is mostly a lot of ullulating:

And then Finland, with another song that has a certain popularity with the hardcore Eurovision fans, but, well, it's definitely a joke song. Also, Windows95man is no Hackerman! Here's "No Rules!" ... which he discovered was not, in fact, true, as Eurovision rules required them to blur the Windows 95 logo due to forbidding commerical advertising. LOL. You can't even buy it any longer, pretty sure it's out of support...

Lithuania's Silverster Belt with "Luktelk" is kind of interesting, but bits of it remind me a little of The Roop, who I'm guessing are an influence:

 

And next up in the big 5, the UK with former Years & Year front man (and pretty good actor -- watch him in It's a Sin, a heartbreaking miniseries about young gay men in the UK as the AIDs epidemic was beginning) Olly Alexander with "Dizzy". He's collaborated with the Pet Shop Boys before, I believe, and I can hear an influence in the music from producer Danny L Harle, but I find the lyrics a bit  too repetititous:

And just outside the top 10, the last of the Nordics, Sweden... who decided to send two Norwegian twins who are immensely popular among the younger kids. At least they are not Jedward... Here's Marcus & Martinus with "Unforgettable" (a big boast that I don't think they'll be following through on, but YMMV):

At #10 at present is Kaleen for Austria, singing "We Will Rave", which is a very high energy song at parts. However, her live performance had a lot of people thinking she had room for improvement while others thought she was simply holding back and taking it easy with the performance:

 

 

Next is Eden Golan for Israel, with "Hurricane". The lyrics and title of this song have gone through at least two or three versions, all considered too political by the EBU (IIRC, one of the previous titles was "October Rain"), until they settled on this. Someone did a comparison to the prior version and the changes were fairly minor. Near as I can tell, the actual music has been the same through all of it. Don't think there's been a live performance of this one, beyond a brief clip, but here's the video:

Then there's Greece, right now at #8, with Marina Satti's "ZARI", which has a rather clever video shot around Athens:

The penultimate of the big 5 is France's Silmane with "Mon Amour":

Strong voice.

Belgium's Mustii with "Before the Party's Over" is next in the odds:

 

The Dutch have a popular entry in Joosti Klein's "Europapa". I'll link the video, as it's interesting but I admit also a bit confusing:

Aspects of the lyrics and the visuals of the song made it seem almost anti-EU to Linda and I... but apparently the song's subtext is quite different; Joost lost his father very suddenly when he was young, and then his mother not long after, and so the coda at the end kind of recasts his musings on traveling in the EU but not feeling satisfied, with the burning of the very Euro-house in the video representing his breaking out of the self-imposed sadness he felt and instead finally enjoying the freedom he has.

Something like that, anyways, as I understand it.

Ukraine starts with the standard Ukrainian folk-inflected opening, but goes in a different direction when alyona alyona joins in. Can't say this is really a top 3, but support for Ukraine can boost it:

Third place, we have the last of the Big 5, Italy, with Angelina Mango singing her San Remo winner "La noia", a cumbia-music inflected song (more on Italy later):

 

I believe Angelina has said they'll be tightening up the song a little from San Remo, cutting down a verse or two and shortening the overall play time.

Now, San Remo is a multi-night affair. In the "Superfinal" were five songs. "La noia" was #1 with the press and radio jury, but #2 with the televote. 2nd place went to Geolier's "I' p' me, tu p' te'", where the press and raido ranked it 4 and 5 respecitvely, but the televote loved it and made it  #1 -- personally, I don't care for it. But when I heard the 3rd place song, Annalisa's "Sinceramente" -- which was #2 with the press and radio juries, and #4 with the televote -- well... I think this song would have performed better at Eurovision than "La noia", but maybe that's me:

Now we come to the former front-runner, Croatia's Baby Lasanga and their song "Rim Tim Tagi Dim". I find nothing to like in it, but obviously mileage varies (it's still listed as #1 in Eurovision World's poll of who should win Eurovision). This is over-rated, it's a Eurovision hardcore fan gimmick song. Silly:

 

And last but not least, the new front-runner, with odds at 24%: Switzerland's Nemo, with "The Code". Here's the live performance, but I'll add the video because I think it's pretty good:

Quite some range on Nemo, seems to have some operatic training.

And the video:

Not too many odd-balls, as I said, this year -- mostly just mediocrity, alas. But a few good ones, and hey, at least I'll always have "Sinceramente" on my Spotify playlist.

[Alytha]

Also, Luxembourg is back!

I hope we'll at least make it to the final.

Personally, I preferred the runner-up of the national finals, but Tali's song isn't too bad either. I guess the final choice was between a ballad and a dance-music song, but I think both would have fit in quite well.

[Ran]

8 hours ago, Alytha said:

Also, Luxembourg is back!

Indeed, after a 20 year break. I think the song is solid, but unfortunately the bookies have it as among the very bottom. Once we're closer to the final, it'll be interesting consider who'll make it through each of the semis.

Here's Tali's "Fighter", for Luxembourg, for those wondering:

 

Not much movement in the odds the last days, but the London pre-Eurovision party took place without too much to note except that Austria's Kaleen gamely performed through a "wardrobe malfunction" that started almost immediately from the first dance break. I see among the hardcore fans that people have liked her "We Will Rave" but felt that she came off as too impersonal and media polished, and the humor and good-nature with which she dealt with her wardrobe issue made a few people warm up to her more:

 

 

Edited April 9 by Ran

[Alytha]

Aww, sad to hear that.

How good has the track record of these predictions been lately?

[Alytha]

Check out the runner-up from Luxembourg:

 

 

(the board wouldn't let me post it as embedded although it automatically embedded it itself?)

 

Edited April 10 by Ran

[Ran]

1 hour ago, Alytha said:

Check out the runner-up from Luxembourg:

https://youtu.be/c-uavtuOuRs?si=Ph0K3bm5DPIu0fYt

(the board wouldn't let me post it as embedded although it automatically embedded it itself?)

 

You have to go to Source  after the embed, and edit out the strange character they use for the country code abbreviations. Our board doesn't support them presently. I've gone ahead and done it for your post.

As to accuracy of predictions, in the last years 4 of 6 winners were #1 in the odds a month out, and in all six of the last six years, the winners were at least in the top 4 of odds. So right now  the likely winner is Switzerland, with a chance that Croatia, Italy, or Ukraine surprises. Right now "The Code" isn't so far ahead of 2nd and 3rd that it's a runaway, and we'll see how things shift as we get more live performances.

ETA: I'm with you, I prefer the runner-up to Tali's "Fighter".

Edited April 10 by Ran

[Maltaran]

I suspect Israel will do terribly for non-musical reasons

[Ran]

14 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

I suspect Israel will do terribly for non-musical reasons

The UK too, at this rate. Olly Alexander has been particularly targeted by protesters for nonsensical reasons.  The EBU has put out a statement decrying the attacks on artists.

Edited April 10 by Ran

[Maltaran]

2 hours ago, Ran said:

The UK too, at this rate. Olly Alexander has been particularly targeted by protesters for nonsensical reasons.  The EBU has put out a statement decrying the attacks on artists.

The UK doing terribly is just business as usual though

[Mladen]

That time of the year... 

Do remind me... Who has gone to the same school as Eurovision winner? 

As for Serbia... Boy, did we take it too seriously this year. The whole selection process was hilariously ludicrous. There were even announcements of protests. But, luckily, it ended with two drunk guys embarrassing themselves.

And the winner is Teya Dora, best known for her hit "Džanum," which went viral on TikTok in 2023. 

Her winning song, "Ramonda," draws inspiration from the Natalie's Ramonda flower, an endemic plant with the remarkable ability to sustain life with just a single drop of water. Ramonda has become a symbol of fallen Serbian soldiers in WWI and is worn as a token of remembrance in November, much like the British red poppy flower. The song is about finding light in darkness, surviving even in toughest circumstances, bringing hope.

The song is absolutely beautiful, blending clear influences from artists like Billie Eilish and Loreen, with the appropriate touch of Serbian spirit. Overall, very proud of her... Wishing her all the best!

[Ran]

On 4/10/2024 at 3:02 PM, Ran said:

As to accuracy of predictions, in the last years 4 of 6 winners were #1 in the odds a month out, and in all six of the last six years, the winners were at least in the top 4 of odds. So right now  the likely winner is Switzerland, with a chance that Croatia, Italy, or Ukraine surprises. Right now "The Code" isn't so far ahead of 2nd and 3rd that it's a runaway, and we'll see how things shift as we get more live performances.

Less than two weeks from the first semi-final, and there's been a bit more movement as Ukraine has fallen while the Netherlands has climbed. Switzerland's Nemo is still being booked at 25% odds to win, but Croatia's Baby Lasagna is at second place for some inexplicable reason with a 17% chance to win. And the Netherlands has now climbed into third place with a 15% odds, leaving Italy to continue to sit at about 11%. 

I think at this stage, barring big surprises, the contest is between Switzerland, Croatia, and maybe the Netherlands. I don't think Angelia Mango is getting enough traction for Italy at this stage, despite well-received live performances at fan events.  (Still think they should have sent Annalisa!)