Robb's stupid moves

[Sneeki2]

(Curiosity: The death of Jaime by orders of Robb or Karstark would have secured Tyrion in his previously doubtful position as Heir to Casterly Rock. Possibly opening the way to further Lannister in-fighting. Not sure if the Starks could take advantage of it).

I think Tywin would have had Tyrion killed before he would let him anywhere near the leadership of the Rock. Cersei could forget it also. He knew she was a power mongering fool and likely knew all of her kids where inbred monsters like Jeoffrey.

He would likely let his brother have it.

[Edric Dayne]

(Robb must have been clueless as to the cut throat politics of the Ironlands and the reputation of the head Greyjoy).

Well in fairness to Robb, Theon himself was pretty clueless to how things work on the Iron Islands when he first got back.

[Sneeki2]

Well in fairness to Robb, Theon himself was pretty clueless to how things work on the Iron Islands when he first got back.

I don't think he was clueless. He was just over-confident of his own worth. He wasn't completely shocked at how things were going in court, just how he was being treated. Though he did underestimate his sister's worth.

[Edric Dayne]

I don't think he was clueless. He was just over-confident of his own worth. He wasn't completely shocked at how things were going in court, just how he was being treated. Though he did underestimate his sister's worth.

i don't know he forgot the difference between paying the iron price and gold price which seems pretty important to the Iron Islands culture. He didn't catch how Robb offering to give Balon a crown would be received, and he seemed to expect to be treated as the son of a mainland ruler would be. Clearly the Ironborn have different ideas about the qualifications to be the heir.

Either way it's hard to be too tough on Robb for not understanding the Ironborn when his closest source of information on them also had problems understanding them.

[shadowbinding shoe]

I thought Theon had a right to be shocked. Balon's court was reviving dead traditions from before the Targaryen conquest when the Iron Born were still independent. We see it when Theon looks at the burnt sept. They prayed to the seven when he left but now they don't. They had valuable possessions before, but now they must steal them from people they kill.

The first rebellion was the first time in 300 years when the poor but peaceful Ironborn started to do those things largescale. But Theon was taken right at that time so didn't have time to absorb this reversion to old traditions.

[Dimadick]

Tywin has actually made a series of mistakes with long-term effects:

1. He always saw Jaime as his rightful heir, with or without a white cloak. Leaving him blind to other viable heirs and to the actual intentions of said golden heir. He was also blind to one particular problem with Jaime in leadership positions. While an excelent swordsman and capable knight, Jaime was never capable of planning ahead on either military or political agendas. His idea of effective action was rashing in with a sword and scaring or outright killing his opponents. Consequences be damned.

2. He always limited the use of Sersei to who she was going to marry and what children she would give birth to. The possibility of his daughter as a political player in her own right escaped him. As a result Tywin maid no effort to impart any of his wisdom on the Game of Thrones to her. Sersei is mostly self-taught and she obviously learned badly.

3. Tywin only saw real and imagined faults in Tyrion. His second son's finer qualities of careful planning, ruthlesness, ability to inspire loyalty, eloquence, etc were either invisible to him or only begrudgingly acknowledged during the War of the Five Kings. As a result,Tyrion was not only not trained or treated as the legal heir since the time his brother joined the Kingsguard. Tywin did everything in his power to block his path except outright killing him. Any doubt on how Tywin gained a potential enemy within the Lannister ranks?

4. For all his famed political and strategic skill, Tywin's peacetime diplomacy seems to have been lacking.

The Martells seem to have been alienated by his treatment of them and their offers of marital alliances since before Rhaegar married Elia. Ordering Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon killed might have saved Robert Baratheon the political cost of executing them himself. But cost the Lannisters their own reputation with the people and earned them life-long enemies among the entire Dorne region.

The Tyrells were political outsiders for most of Robert Baratheon's reign. Tywin failed to offer them any viable alliance until Tyrion did it for him, well into the War of the Five Kings. For once, Renly seems to have proved himself a better diplomat than Tywin in gaining their support even before the war.

On the Baratheon side of the political landscape, Robert considered the Lannisters necessary evils to ensure their support for his reign. Yet there was considerable resentment on both sides of the deal for years. Meanwhile Stannis and Renly seemed to have been completely alienated by the closest allies of their

brother. Cultivating their own power bases to eventually challenge them. The hostility could be avoided if Tywin just through them a metaphorical bone.

No love lost between Lannisters and Tullys either. The best Lannister cards in the Riverlands were their marital alliances with the Freys. Yet Tywin alienated even them with his treatment of Walder as little more than an upstart commoner. Poor decision.

Jon Arryn also seems to have sought ways to remove the Lannister inlfuence from court. Another powerful political player seeing Tywin as a threat rather than a usegul ally.

The Starks were isolated in their barren North. For some reason , Eddard seems to have been the one member of the alliance which brought Robert to the throne that gained the least from their successes. Yet distrust of the Lannisters was spread to Winterfell. Expecting the worst from them. Not to mention the Greyjoys nursing their wounds and resenting the entire lot of them.

Result:The Lannisters have few actual allies and a group of potential enemies including every great House in Westeros for quite some time before the War. What did Tywin expect? That he would successfully cower them to inactivity?

[Dimadick]

"And when he went to the Twins, Walder Frey said 'mayhaps' to him, and he didn't catch it."

That was not really Robb's fault. Walder was making a vague reference to a game the Freys have been using to train potential heirs to their leadership. The game was familiar to Brandon and Rickon Stark but not to Robb.

[Dimadick]

"For one, if Auntie Lysa had decided to support her family that woulda been kinda nice. I can't confidently say it would have made X amount of difference, but it's something that hasn't been mentioned. Ned's fostering at the Eyrie and the Tully marriages were the groundwork for a pretty powerful alliance, but Lysa kept it from its potential. It's of course her right to keep her people out of a war they didn't want but we do know that at least some of them were unhappy with her decision."

Her nobles had different reasons to be unhappy. Every other Great House of Westeros and associated bannermen were out to gain territorial or political gains. By sitting out the war, the Vale failed to take part in the formation of the new political landscape. The bannermen earned nothing while their realm lost whatever political influence it had gained through the alliances formed under Jon Arryn.

On the other hand there was a very real danger that any victorious king (Joffrey, Stannis, Renly and even Robb) would view them as renegades. Making them isolated targets for just about anyone. Lysa may had been convinced that her realm could resist any attack. We have no indication that her nobles shared that view. Tyrion Lannister was contemplating weak points and ways to invade, following his joining with local barbarian tribes and prior to joining Tywin. Who is to say that other generals could not also see ways to conquer?

[Setzer]

The question as to why Robb didn't marry whichever of Lord Frey's daughters/grand daughters he liked best asap, but instead said he would do it after the war has got me thinking.

1) Considering it was Catelyn not Robb who negiotiated the agreement in the first place, is it not possible that Robb may have gone along with it 'for the time being' naively thinking that he might be able to renegiotate the pact at a later date from a stronger position?

Perhaps. No one ever praised the Young Wolf's political acumen.

<snip>

Actually thinking about Lord Frey's don't-commit-too-firmly-to-any-side-til-you-know-the-outcome attitude in most conflicts, I wouldn't be at all suprised if the 'wait until after the war' part of the marriage pact was his idea in the first place!

It very well may have been. It's all the more reason to wed a Frey now, so he's tied to them for better or for worse.

[L'Sana]

I thought Theon had a right to be shocked. Balon's court was reviving dead traditions from before the Targaryen conquest when the Iron Born were still independent. We see it when Theon looks at the burnt sept. They prayed to the seven when he left but now they don't. They had valuable possessions before, but now they must steal them from people they kill.

The first rebellion was the first time in 300 years when the poor but peaceful Ironborn started to do those things largescale. But Theon was taken right at that time so didn't have time to absorb this reversion to old traditions.

It didn't seem to me the traditions that Theon observed were all that different from what they had been before. When Balon asks, "Did you pay the gold price or the iron price?" Theon doesn't say, "WTF?" He knows right away what Balon is talking about and the mistake that he has made. Likewise, the worship of the Drowned God is certainly not alien to him; he doesn't ask, "Uncle Aeron, why aren't we worshipping the Smith and the Warrior rather than this weird guy in the ocean?" The memories of Aeron and Victarion also suggest that "paying the iron price" and the Drowned God were part of their childhood as well. Balon may have ratcheted both of those traditions up a notch, but he was hardly inventing them out of whole cloth, or even reviving almost dead ones.

I think Theon had just forgotten most of his people's traditions or never quite understood them to begin with. This is understandable; he was a child when he left, and he's been gone half his life. But it was another reason Robb shouldn't have sent him. Theon thought he knew how his father would react, but in reality, hadn't a clue.

Tywin has actually made a series of mistakes with long-term effects:

This is another subject, but Tywin's problems all boil down to one thing, more or less: a complete lack of empathy. He doesn't seem able to understand other people or there motivations, something that applies particularly to his children. He saw Jaime, Cersei, and Tyrion as pieces in his own game who would do as they were told, not people with their own needs and motivations. He couldn't see that Jaime IS going to stay in the Kingsguard, Cersei is NOT going to marry again, and Tyrion WILL fire that crossbow.

Her nobles had different reasons to be unhappy. Every other Great House of Westeros and associated bannermen were out to gain territorial or political gains. By sitting out the war, the Vale failed to take part in the formation of the new political landscape. The bannermen earned nothing while their realm lost whatever political influence it had gained through the alliances formed under Jon Arryn.

The Vale didn't gain anything in terms of territory or influence, true, but they didn't lose either. The North and the Riverlands are going to starve when winter comes. The Westlands aren't unscathed, and none of the Lannister bannermen seem to have benefited particularly from their losses. Even the Reach may have trouble coming up, with the Ironborn invading and all their strength off fighting Cersei's war. The Vale could have done much worse than ending up in the same position where they started.

[Sneeki2]

Result:The Lannisters have few actual allies and a group of potential enemies including every great House in Westeros for quite some time before the War. What did Tywin expect? That he would successfully cower them to inactivity?

You know, aside from being a complete tool as a father, Tywin did ok. He was a prick most of the time but a pretty saavy one (he did handle his business). If Tyrion hadn't killed him, he most likely would have turned Kings Landing around (if Cersei didnt' eventually kill him). Alongside his brother, he could accomplish just about anything he set his mind to.

When he finally got to Kings Landing, I was so happy to finally see someone put Cersei and Geoffery in their place.

Littlefinger's dealings and Cersei's antics are what really rocked the Lannister boat, and Tywin was well on his way to righting the situation. His court was cruel, but very efficient.

[L'Sana]

You know, aside from being a complete tool as a father, Tywin did ok. He was a prick most of the time but a pretty saavy one (he did handle his business). If Tyrion hadn't killed him, he most likely would have turned Kings Landing around (if Cersei didnt' eventually kill him). Alongside his brother, he could accomplish just about anything he set his mind to.

"Being a complete tool as a father" was not a trivial problem, however, because it meant that Tywin's enemies were concentrated in his own house. That eventually killed him.

I'm inclined to think most of the improvement in King's Landing was due to the Tyrells opening the Roseroad, rather than any political brilliance on Tywin's part.

And he couldn't set everything to rights. He couldn't have fixed the problem with Dorne.

[Setzer]

Wouldn't Gregor's head have fixed that somewhat? Dorne will never love the Lannisters, but they can at least be mollified.

[Lady Blackfish]

Her nobles had different reasons to be unhappy. Every other Great House of Westeros and associated bannermen were out to gain territorial or political gains. By sitting out the war, the Vale failed to take part in the formation of the new political landscape. The bannermen earned nothing while their realm lost whatever political influence it had gained through the alliances formed under Jon Arryn.

Different from what? I'm not sure what I had said that contradicts what you just did.

[suffix]

Wouldn't Gregor's head have fixed that somewhat? Dorne will never love the Lannisters, but they can at least be mollified.

Gregors not totally dead (i think) and his head was only sent to keep Dorne a little in check, Tywin knew he couldnt keep Dorne happy and he probably didnt care much about Dorne but a war with them would be a costly thing and the Lannisters have paid quite a price to be where they are at.

[Sneeki2]

"Being a complete tool as a father" was not a trivial problem, however, because it meant that Tywin's enemies were concentrated in his own house. That eventually killed him.

I'm inclined to think most of the improvement in King's Landing was due to the Tyrells opening the Roseroad, rather than any political brilliance on Tywin's part.

And he couldn't set everything to rights. He couldn't have fixed the problem with Dorne.

Yes he did make enemies in his own house, but he actually believed none of his children would have the stones to actually defy his official word (personal matters were another thing). He was the only one that actually shut Cersei up and had the final word with that idiot Geoffrey and if Tyrion hadn't got the truth about his first love from Jamie, he wouldn't have had the fire to confront Tywin.

But Tywin was a wheeler and dealer. He wasn't blind to what was good for the kingdom (unlike Cersei). He didn't have Cersei's overactive paranoia of the Tyrells either. He could deal with them just like any other.

He would have held off Dorne for as long as he could, just as he was doing. He was a lot more than a nobleman with a ton of gold (like his father). He turned the Lannisters into a power to be reckoned with.

[Jon Targaryen]

re: satisfying Karstark

I think the only thing that would have worked was killing Jaime. Anything else was not good enough. There was really no good option there.

[Gigei]

IMO the only real stupid thing he did was he stuck his dick into the Westerling girl and then went and married her.

That's actually two stupid things. Yes, I agree this was *the* stupid thing to do. A king can't chose a powerless poor girl as his queen when he already has a marriage alliance made. It wasn't even honourable to marry the Westerling girl when he was bethrothed as he broke his word to the Freys. The honorable thing to do would have been to marry Westerling the girl off to someone else (offer a large dowry), that way she wouldn't be ruined.

[suffix]

Should of listened to Black Walder

[Elrick]

First off I'd like to state one Robb's major mistakes was not having Lord Karstark take the Black which he should have did instead of executing him. This may have stopped the betrayal from house Karstark.

I think that Bolton was someone that should never have been trusted however I suspect that Robb never fully trusted Roose Bolton but he was sort of forced to due to the sort of support he gave. Another mistake was indeed Theon he was never a completely trustworthy individual but Robb's friendship with Theon was yet a fault that everyone has. Sometimes people make friends with sorts that are not honorable and will stab you in the back.