Robb's stupid moves

[Maia]

I’d say he should have chosen a close member of the Stark house-hold as an advisor, like Rodrik Cassel or Master Luwin. Robb needed someone who knew as much about the Stark bannerman as Ned did, someone who could have advised him better than to choose Bolton to lead the army.

It is not obvious to me that either Ned or any member of his household knew to distrust Bolton in advance. When Ned left Cat in charge of the North he didn't specifically warn her against Bolton, after all. Also, it was one thing to put Bolton in command for a short-lived division of forces and quite another to leave armies divided and Bolton in charge for such a long time. Also, Rodrik and Luwin sent Robb all the complaints about Ramsey, which should have put him on guard against Bolton himself, but which he summarily ignored.

Cat gave Robb general warnings that his lords weren't his friends, that they had their own interests, which he also chose to ignore.

BTW, I have forgotten that it was Edmure who moved Helman Tallhart and hid garrison out of the Twins to join Bolton at Harrenhal and thus made Frey defection and the Red Wedding so easy to effect. I wonder if it was done on Bolton's or Frey's insinuation... hm... Frankly, I think that they began to cook up a plan to betray Robb when Bolton married a Frey.

[Markus]

Maia,

Also, Rodrik and Luwin sent Robb all the complaints about Ramsey, which should have put him on guard against Bolton himself, but which he summarily ignored. Cat gave Robb general warnings that his lords weren't his friends, that they had their own interests, which he also chose to ignore.

How do you know that Robb couldn't have considered these matters to some degree, merely to come to the conclusion that they didn't warrant any actions which would likely alienate Bolton? Perhaps Robb thought he couldn't afford to risk losing one of his most powerful supporters over mere suspicions?

The problem is we didn't have Robb's PoV and so don't know what Robb thought about these things. So we can't really conclude that he "ignored" them just because he apparently didn't do something about Roose Bolton.

Frankly, I think that they began to cook up a plan to betray Robb when Bolton married a Frey.

They may have had some contingency thoughts of mutual support, perhaps.

However, GRRM has suggested that the specific form of the desertion which included Robb's murder was motivated by Robb marrying Jeyne for the Freys. If not for that they would have tried to disentange themselves from a losing cause, but without such bloodshed. He has also suggested that Bolton wasn't committed to the Red Wedding until Jaime had promised not to blame Bolton for the loss of his hand to Tywin.

It shouldn't be overlooked that Robb was winning the war when Bolton married his Frey. So I doubt that there were any concrete plots against Robb at work at the time of the marriage.

[Rockroi]

Robb’s mistakes are just like sins: some were mortal sins, other venial. Every commander will make mistakes; Tywin followed Roose and left Robb free prior to Riverrun; Jaime went into Whispering Woods; people will make mistakes. I think the key is KNOWING that something was a mistake prior to seeing the outcome, or in retrospect, was so bad that upon seeing the mistake, in total, Robb looks completely foolish.

I think Roose Bolton was a very, very capable commander who had great experience and could get the job done. I do not think that this was a mega-mistake. I also do not think it was a mistake to leave Winterfell with only a modest garrison. What choice did he have? I also do not think it was a mistake to execute the Karstarks; the mistake MAY have been in not securing their loyalty more tightly prior to that event.

Robb’s blunders that cost him his army, his cause, and his life were as follows:

1. Breaking the Marriage Pact with Frey. Entirely foolish; completely ruinous, almost utterly unthinkable in its scope. There is no excuse for this action. The reader knew it was a mistake form the moment we read the words. Robb knew at the time he was at the Twins that Frey was a prickly, utterly ruthless lord who was power-hungry and dedicated to seeing his family in prominence. Further, Frey was the Lord of the Crossing, the most important geographic alliance Robb had. Robb then openly and irrevocably rebukes the marriage alliance by doing the unthinkable – marrying another woman, a daughter of a Lannister Lord. There has been no greater blunder in the books. It tops Ned with Cersei and Cersei with the religious orders. Had Robb made no other mistakes in the books, this one most likely would have doomed him.

2. Sending Theon to Balon: At no point in Game of Thrones was the reader provided any information that would have lead a reasonable person to believe that Theon was deeply loyal to Robb irrespective of his own family. Why did Robb, then? Its hard to fathom how Robb would have thought Theon would have made a good diplomat to Balon, and its hard to fathom why Balon would have helped Robb in any event. This mistake lead to a series of problems that ultimately doomed Winterfell. The loss of his homeland made Robb look weak and vulnerable.

3. Ignoring Edmure: Robb had a chance to win the war against Tywin (presumably) by leading Tywin on a wild-goose chase in his won lands. All that needed to be accomplished was for Tywin to move passed Edmure at Riverrun. His order to Edmure: Hold Riverrun. How is any capable commander to properly interpret this order as “Allow Tywin to ride through your lands, passed Riverrun, and back into the west� Instead, Edmure, almost comically, is berated for defending his lands and actually “holding Riverrun.†Had Robb taken 10 minutes to pull his uncle – the head of his most important political ally – aside and say, “Uncle, I know you are a very brave fighter and you love your people deeply. I saw that when I arrived, I see that in how the townspeople and your men look at you. They admire and respect you, and so do I. But I need you to do something very difficult. I need you to allow Tywin to cross through your lands and only give battle in the form of resisting Tywin’s siege of Riverrun. Do not block the fjords; do not meet him at the bridges; simply stay in Riverrun and allow him to pass.†What was that, 1 more minute of his life? The result of Robb’s poor order? Joff wins the War of the Five Kings. Robb is just another outlaw with outlaw men, doing outlaw things. This deprived him of a major victory that may have won him his cause and spared his life.

I think these three stand a top any list. They are the trifecta of Robb’s problems. And they all share a common theme: while Robb was a brilliant tactician, he was a terrible statesman and ally. He could destroy his enemies, but was inept with his friends. He knew how to fight, not how to rule.

[Olenna]

No, he shouldn’t have married Jeyne Westerling… I know this one has been beaten to a pulp. He should have kept it in his pants and left the child, daughter of a house loyal to the Lannisters (HELLO?) alone. Robb was thinking with the little head like a green boy.

I can't help wondering if Robb was more bamboozled into sleeping with Jeyne than fully aware that he was doing it. He was seriously wounded, after all, and possibly feverish and semiconscious. Maybe Jeyne just took advantage of his vulnerability. (Of course, that doesn't exonerate him from the stupidity of marrying her.)

Is it possible that Jeyne's mother put her up to seducing him?

[Markus]

As to Robb's "stupid moves", not every mistake is stupid. In fact most of the "mistakes" for which Robb is blamed in this thread were reasonable or at least defensible decisions at the time Robb made them regardless of the way they turned out, when one looks at them from Robb's PoV and not with the knowledge and hindsight of a reader.

Major exceptions include Robb marrying Jeyne Westerling and Robb sending Theon back to his father. These were truly "stupid" decisions one might say.

Robb probably knew that he would lose the Freys but still married Jeyne. There was talk of honor as to why Robb married Jeyne, but a king shouldn't place the mere honor of two people, not even when his own honor is involved, not even to mention his mere lust and preferences, over the fate of his kingdom and his people.

As for Theon, while it might be defensible that Robb believed Theon was his friend and wouldn't turn on him, there simply was no necessity to send Theon to his father at this point. There was a necessity to have a hostage against a man his father helped put down though, at least until Robb knew otherwise. Cat said about as much and Robb foolishly overruled her. That's not to say Balon wouldn't have attacked the north without Theon, we don't know this either way, but at least Theon couldn't have done the damage he did.

[Nymeria Sand]

As to Robb's "stupid moves", not every mistake is stupid. In fact most of the "mistakes" for which Robb is blamed in this thread were reasonable or at least defensible decisions at the time Robb made them regardless of the way they turned out, when one looks at them from Robb's PoV and not with the knowledge and hindsight of a reader.

Major exceptions include Robb marrying Jeyne Westerling and Robb sending Theon back to his father. These were truly "stupid" decisions one might say.

Robb probably knew that he would lose the Freys but still married Jeyne. There was talk of honor as to why Robb married Jeyne, but a king shouldn't place the mere honor of two people, not even when his own honor is involved, not even to mention his mere lust and preferences, over the fate of his kingdom and his people.

As for Theon, while it might be defensible that Robb believed Theon was his friend and wouldn't turn on him, there simply was no necessity to send Theon to his father at this point. There was a necessity to have a hostage against a man his father helped put down though, at least until Robb knew otherwise. Cat said about as much and Robb foolishly overruled her. That's not to say Balon wouldn't have attacked the north without Theon, we don't know this either way, but at least Theon couldn't have done the damage he did.

Not to harp on Robb marrying Jeyne (which was the dumbest thing he could have done), but if Robb wanted an alliance with Balon Greyjoy, why didn't he offer to marry Asha? Or have Edmure marry her since he was already betrothed to a Frey? Then he could have both the Freys and the Greyjoys? Balon might have refused him anyway since he had other designs, but an alliance with either the Starks or the Tullys might have ensured that a Greyjoy ruled the north eventually.

Having Theon marry Sansa would have served the same ends, but that wasn't an option, unfortunately.

Just curious.

[Shewoman]

Could someone explain to me the "mayhaps" thing?

[Errant Bard]

It's the game Bran explained the Walder played: "King of the crossing" I think it was called. If the king of the crossing says "mayhaps" when you ask to cross, he pushes you in the mud when you try. As it happens, the Late lord Frey said "mayhaps" to Robb before the Red Wedding.

Heh.

[Meylan1910]

In A Clash of Kings, Bran is watching Little and Big Walder playing a game called Lord of the Crossing. In short one guy (the Lord) stands on a makeshift bridge and others try to knock him off. The Lord can make the others swear to anything he wants and they can only attack him if they manage to say "Mayhaps" unnoticed.

At the Twins for the wedding Walder Frey is talking with Robb and making conciliatory noises when he uses the word "Mayhaps". Few hours later all Frey's conciliatory talk is revealed as a lie.

[Markus]

... if Robb wanted an alliance with Balon Greyjoy, why didn't he offer to marry Asha? Or have Edmure marry her since he was already betrothed to a Frey? Then he could have both the Freys and the Greyjoys?

You say yourself why Robb couldn't offer himself. Robb not trying to utilize Edmure's marriage potential as soon as possible must probably be seen as a lack of political foresight.

While Robb was savy enough to want to make alliances with the Greyjoys, with Renly and with Lysa, the way he went about turning these alliances into reality was lacking. He seems to have offered nothing beyond the alliance itself in all these cases, except Theon's release in the case of the Greyjoys. In a 15 year old boy this was hardly surprising. Boys that age normally don't engineer marriage alliances, in particular while they're busy fighting a war.

Robb also had the special misfortune that his enemies included Tyrion and Littlefinger -- two of the most cunning people in Westeros -- who between them successfully engineered a war turning marriage alliance of their own while Robb's counterpart Tywin was himself occupied in the field.

It has to be said though, that while Robb's efforts to form alliances were probably lacking sophistication, they may well have been for nought anyway. Robb's effort to ally with Renly, mediated through Cat, was put to an abrupt end when Renly was killed while Cat was still treating with him. In Lysa's case, it's doubtful that anything Robb could have offered would have moved Lysa to join the war against the Lannisters.

The same might be true of Balon Greyjoy. Balon didn't just want his independence, he also wanted revenge against the Starks for the deaths of his sons. This made him blind to the fact --which Asha has comprehended -- that the ironborn could never hope to hold the north in the long term and could never stand against the Iron Throne without the alliance which Robb offered.

[The hairy bear]

Could someone explain to me the "mayhaps" thing?

The two Walders at show a game to Bran in Winterfell called "The Lord of the Crossing". It's a game commonly played within the Frey household and its main rule is that when you are questioned you have to answer the truth except for when you somehow include "mayhaps" in the sentence. In this case you are allowed to lie.

When Robb arribes at the twins before the Red Wedding and Walder offers him food, he says "mayhaps".

ETA: I'm far too slow!!

[Shewoman]

Thanks, everybody!

[TrackerNeil]

However, GRRM has suggested that the specific form of the desertion which included Robb's murder was motivated by Robb marrying Jeyne for the Freys. If not for that they would have tried to disentange themselves from a losing cause, but without such bloodshed. He has also suggested that Bolton wasn't committed to the Red Wedding until Jaime had promised not to blame Bolton for the loss of his hand to Tywin.

It shouldn't be overlooked that Robb was winning the war when Bolton married his Frey. So I doubt that there were any concrete plots against Robb at work at the time of the marriage.

Nonetheless, it's clear to me that Bolton was undercutting Robb very nearly from the start. Remember the Battle of the Green Fork? Two things:

1) Why did Bolton actually engage Tywin's force, which greatly outnumbered him? I know Bolton was charged with drawing Tywin north, but he could have accomplished the same thing by approaching within a day's ride of the Lannisters and then turning tail and running. Even if Tywin recognized the gambit for what it was, he would have been too far away to have done Jaime at Riverrun any good. I think Bolton wanted to bloody Robb's army, and not in victory.

2) Notice that the folks leading the charge were Manderlys and Lyddels and Glovers, and not Boltons. Roose himself was safely in the rear. I think Bolton was trying to whittle the ranks of Stark loyalists.

I don't suggest that Roose set out from the beginning to murder Robb, but that he took the opportunity to pare down the strength of a liege lord he didn't like very much. That's a very rational way to operate if you're cold, ruthless and evil.

*Credit to Ran for many years ago convincing me that these things were true.

[Andhaira]

All Robb needed to win was a Flight of Flacons, instead of a Feast of Crows. Aka, the Eyrie. With the Eyries at his side the Frey's AND bolton would never have dared betray him.

Basically the Tully's that fucked Robb up really bad. Catelyn, Edmure, Lysa. The Tully bannermen also helped a great deal in this regard (Frey's)

Seriously, I'm glad the Tully's are done. What a fucked up family.

[Markus]

TrackerNeil,

Copied and pasted from a post I wrote a few days ago in the AFfC forum:

Roose Bolton's charge was not only not to lose too many men but also to keep Tywin from realizing that Robb wasn't with this army, and had gone after Riverrun instead. Rushing to attack Tywin with a tired army and from an unfavorable position served neither of these goals.

Bolton's defeat was accompanied by heavy losses. He probably lost more than a third of Robb's entire foot -- more than 5000 men. He also lost important leaders and allies of Robb to death or captivity. Moreover, it directly led Tywin to realize what Robb had done. If Robb's plans would have been delayed Tywin may even have been able to warn Jaime in time.

What Bolton did at the Green Fork was employing a tactic which he likely knew would probably lead to defeat, would primarily weaken Robb and his allies, but which may perhaps have won himself glory and hefty rewards if it had led to victory. He was in a win-win situation. If he lost he weakened Robb's military power and got rid of rival lords allied with Robb, and if he won Robb would have to reward him very, very handsomely.

Bolton was never truly loyal to Robb. Robb was his rival whom he first undermined indirectly because he couldn't openly defy him, and then openly when he became persuaded that he could get away with murdering Robb and his allies to make himself the ruler of the north. Bolton was only ever loyal to himself and his ambitions.

[Nymeria Sand]

You say yourself why Robb couldn't offer himself. Robb not trying to utilize Edmure's marriage potential as soon as possible must probably be seen as a lack of political foresight.

Yes, that's what I was getting at. He didn't think (and Martin would have no excuse to murder him at the Red Wedding!). On the other hand, I don't think Catelyn's ideas were any better. She herself has no skill in battle, and letting Jaime go was pretty stupid, too. The way Robb handled that situation was a big reason his lords deserted him.

It has to be said though, that while Robb's efforts to form alliances were probably lacking sophistication, they may well have been for nought anyway. Robb's effort to ally with Renly, mediated through Cat, was put to an abrupt end when Renly was killed while Cat was still treating with him.

That reminds me. Margaery. While the Tyrells were sitting back taking no action after Renly was killed, Robb let them get to Margaery first. Surely he could have come up with something there, but he didn't. Margaery Tyrell's fifty thousand swords went to the Lannisters instead.

The same might be true of Balon Greyjoy. Balon didn't just want his independence, he also wanted revenge against the Starks for the deaths of his sons. This made him blind to the fact --which Asha has comprehended -- that the ironborn could never hope to hold the north in the long term and could never stand against the Iron Throne without the alliance which Robb offered.

I agree. And the way Theon--through Robb's words--posed the alliance was an insult to Balon. It wasn't tactfully done.

[Raff the Sweetling]

Robbs only real mistake was trusting other people too much. He always listened to all the people around him, so it wasnt entirely his fault. He trusted Karstark and he screwed him for vengence, he trusted Roose Bolton and he screwed him for power, Theon screwed him for glory, he trusted Walder Frey to observe the hospitality rights they follow,(he did ask for meat and mead as soon as they got there to cover his butt), and he screwed him for pride. Even his own mother screwed him by releasing Jaime because....well because she's selfish. So I dont see that Robb made a whole mess of things, other than he shouldnt have gotten married.

[Markus]

Nymeria Sand,

On the other hand, I don't think Catelyn's ideas were any better. She herself has no skill in battle, and letting Jaime go was pretty stupid, too. The way Robb handled that situation was a big reason his lords deserted him.

Catelyn won Robb the alliance with the Freys. She also adviced against sending Theon. Other suggestions which had some merit include objecting about Edmure ordering Helman Tallhart out of the Twins because she didn't trust the Freys and advising Edmure not to engage Tywin but to wait in Riverrun.

As for letting Jaime go in exchange for her daughters, Jaime's value is overestimated. It would have made Tywin more cautious, but how would this have changed Tywin's plans? He would probably merely have had to order Edmure and Cat spared at all costs at the Red Wedding to exchange them for Jaime. Robb would still have been murdered.

The actual difference Jaime's release made was primarily the loss of the Karstarks. But was this the reason Robb lost his life? Would Bolton and Frey not have plotted the Red Wedding if all the Karstarks would still have been with Robb? I doubt it. The Karstarks weren't that important to Robb's chances.

On the other hand, releasing Jaime had the effect that Jaime feels obligated not to take up arms against the Tullys and Starks and that he tries to find and protect Cat's daughters via Brienne.

As for Robb's handling of Karstark, well, if he had done anything other than executing him, he risked retaliation against his sisters. And in fact, Robb didn't lose anybody but the Karstarks themselves for executing Rickard and a good part of the Karstark foot was lost at Duskendale with Harrion Karstark in any case, _before_ Robb lost the Karstarks.

While the Tyrells were sitting back taking no action after Renly was killed, Robb let them get to Margaery first. Surely he could have come up with something there, but he didn't. Margaery Tyrell's fifty thousand swords went to the Lannisters instead.

When Renly was killed Robb was in the field in the west and we're told that: "No ravens came to men on the road". So he only could have been informed after he had sent ravens where exactly he was after he had taken some castle in the west. In any case, we simply don't know when Robb learned of it.

Whereas Varys extensive spy network allowed Tyrion and Littlefinger to learn of Renly's death and the infighting and confusion which followed it very shortly after these events. Which in turn made it possible for Littlefinger and Tyrion to win the Tyrells _just in time_ to smash Stannis on the Blackwater. Varys's spies, Tyrion's ideas and Littlefinger's negotiating skills all arrayed against Robb, who may not even have been told of what had happened before the alliance was already made or at least only shortly before. Robb could possibly have dealt with Tywin alone but with Tywin, Varys, Tyrion and Littlefinger at the same time?

Besides, the fact that it was said at the time that Cat was involved in Renly's death won't have made the issue more clear for Robb either, if he learned of Renly's fate before Littlefinger had negotiated the alliance.

[Rockroi]

All Robb needed to win was a Flight of Flacons, instead of a Feast of Crows. Aka, the Eyrie. With the Eyries at his side the Frey's AND bolton would never have dared betray him.

Yeah, but you cannot blame Robb for this. His aunt was a nut job, basically abandoned by her own father to marry some old guy and then persuaded by a Machiavellian genius to murder him. Robb was never going to be able to make her come down from her mountain. So, while yes, on its face, it’s a Robb failure, in judging the totality of the situation, you cannot blame Robb.

Basically the Tully's that fucked Robb up really bad. Catelyn, Edmure, Lysa. The Tully bannermen also helped a great deal in this regard (Frey's)

Nobody fucked up Robb more than Robb. And while we paint the Tully’s with such a broad brush, it were the Tully’s that provided Robb with, by far, the most stability, and gave him a place to be after Winterfell was taken. Edmure never did anything to Robb that Robb himself was not more to blame, and Cat did the best she could as a negotiator/convenient plot device.

[Maia]

How do you know that Robb couldn't have considered these matters to some degree, merely to come to the conclusion that they didn't warrant any actions which would likely alienate Bolton?

We know this because:

Robb never sent any answer to their questions

and he also didn't become more cautious where Bolton was concerned, despite the disquieting news about extra strong garrison left behind, etc.

It shouldn't be overlooked that Robb was winning the war when Bolton married his Frey. So I doubt that there were any concrete plots against Robb at work at the time of the marriage.

I find the coincidence of timing suspicious. Bolton married a Frey and shortly afterwards Edmure called off Helman Tallhart and his men from the Twins. Did he suddenly get an inspiration to this end, or did Bolton specifically request it? Also, I think that while Bolton wasn't yet resolved to take action against Robb, he was certainly busily disposing of potential rivals, strengthening his own position and keeping his mind open about his own loyalty.

Rockroi:

Sure, Lysa was a nutjob, but then, both Cat and Brynden told Robb as much, yet he still thought that his letters, devoid even of any enticing promises, would convince her. He also didn't try to contact any Vale lords directly.

It also has been mentioned earlier in the thread that leaving such a feeble garrison at WF wasn't Robb's fault. IMHO, it was. He should have known that WF would need men to keep order in the North and to counteract wildling incursions - with which he was confronted personally. Stripping WF lands so bare that only untrained kids, most under 16, could be found to hold it, was a mistake.