Perhaps Varys greatest crime

[Cold Hands-Hot Pie]

An interesting theory, but I'm with the people that think that the Antler Men are more or less what they are supposed to be...

- the protests of one condemned prisoner is not much evidence to the contrary
- I also feel that the argument of Joffrey representing the status quo vs Stannis is questionable
during Joff's reign--- the city has its food supply cut off and has seen major riots and now martial law
prosperous merchants are killed and being baked in their own ovens
other prosperous merchants are told that if they aren't productive enough in supporting war effort their hands will be smashed on anvils
an 'evil little monkey demon' is wielding great influence and he has infested the city w/ swaggering sellswords and unwashed savages
this same little demon has personally offended and threatened one of the men known to be a part of the conspiracy (I have a hard time believing Mastor Sallorean the armorer would be 'All for Joff')

in contrast Stannis was part of the old ruling council and is known to be a just man. as far as we know these merchants have no reason to dislike him and it's totally believable that they would decide to go over to him

when you add in the fact that they owe the crown large sums of money-- it's very likely that they thought the reward for opening the city to Stannis would be forgiveness of their debts to the crown; something that's not likely if Joff stays in power.


on a different note-- Ran, you argue that Varys wants to prolong the war.
If that is the case, it would seem to me that at the time the Antler Men are uncovered he back Stannis.
If Stannis fails to take KL, then as we have seen, his threat to the realm is almost at an end and the Lannister bloc can go about restoring peace, which is well in progress before Tywin dies.
On the other hand, if Stannis takes KL, then he would still have to deal with Tywin's army and maybe the power of Highgarden as well-- at that point it's not clear to those in KL how Littlefinger's emisary would succeed.

[Gaston de Foix]

[quote name='Ran' post='1418001' date='Jun 27 2008, 14.48']It seems to me that almost certainly, these armed followers would have been found and rounded up as a potential danger, no? And that some of these Antler Men might, perhaps, have been able to show that in fact, no, they didn't round up these guys.

Also, Salloreon doubtless had a wee bit less love for the Lannisters after Tyrion told him off, so it actually adds a little more motivation for him to have turned traitor.[/quote]

As to the first point, yes the armed followers would be rounded up. I'll concede that point.

Not that he has a starring role in the novel but Salloreon is portrayed as keen to ingratiate himself with Tyrion when they last met. So the idea that he's a Baratheon man and secretly for Stannis seems surprising.

I think there's a game going on with the Antler Men and we don't have the details yet.

[Ran]

I think the drift of what one gets in ACoK is in fact that Stannis's victory would have put an end to the Lannister and Tyrell efforts to secure the throne for Joffrey or his successors. Too many bannermen would wonder why they're continuing fighting against the person who's now established themselves as rightful king.

Whereas an extended siege to no immediate result (not entirely unfeasible at the time, if Tyrion's tricks were able to get rid of much of Stannis's fleet -- as it did -- and the forces in the city were able to hold off the rest) would be very nice for prolonging things.

The whole Melisandre thing should be kept in mind, too. Almost forgot about it. Varys claims to hate magic. Stannis's turning to it would doubtless not endear him to Varys, to say the least, and may have made him go so far as to try and hurt Stannis's chances even if it _didn't_ actually contribute to his own goals.

[shadowbinding shoe]

VArys might also want Joffrey in particular to be the foil for his Targareyn contender. Being vicious, psychopath, the result of incest and representing of the family that slew the Targareyn women and children (and sacked KL) he would be the ideal false pretender to be put down.

Stannis while unpopular in many ways and with a longer road to kinghood would be a tougher nut to crack. He is also known as a good general. And of course he deals with magic which Varys seems to hate.

[mormont]

[quote name='grinachu' post='1418065' date='Jun 27 2008, 15.26']I think there's a game going on with the Antler Men and we don't have the details yet.[/quote]

I have to disagree, purely for 'meta-story' reasons. I think that sometimes we don't see the wood for the trees, so to speak. If even half of the sub-plots and conspiracies and theories people on this forum propose are actually things the author intends to take up, the books are going to go on forever. They can't all be substantiated in the end. Speculation is a never-ending game you can use to sustain any theory you can think up.

I think, therefore, when looking at the plausibility of any theory we need to ask: what relevance does this have to the future plot? Is it really an important issue, or only [i]potentially[/i] one? And, are there many references to this issue in the books to date?

If the answers are 'none', 'only potentially' and 'no', this doesn't discount the theory, of course: but it does make it a lot less likely that the matter will come up again, and so less likely that there's more to it than meets the eye. In this case, we have a minor incident that is not referred to in the next two books and seems unlikely ever to affect the future course of events. I would be very surprised if it's ever referred to again. We have all the details we're likely to get: and so the conclusion we reach has to be based wholly on what we know - which does not tend to support the conspiracy theory.

[Cold Hands-Hot Pie]

[quote]Not that he has a starring role in the novel but Salloreon is portrayed as keen to ingratiate himself with Tyrion when they last met. So the idea that he's a Baratheon man and secretly for Stannis seems surprising.[/quote]

Yes, Sallorean tries to ingratieate himself to Tyrion-- the effect: he's told bluntly make chains or wear them, in addition Tyrion appoints a common smith (who's fit to make horse shoes in the mind of a master armorer like Sallorean) to head the project. I think a little resentment might be justified on Sallorean's part.

[Ran]

Exactly what I was getting at. :)

[Guest Other-in-law]

I like the Fat Man's theory that Varys was thinning the ranks of LF supporters. Most of the Antler Men had loans to the crown, and some were noted as owing their offices (like the Head Gaoler) to LF. Earlier Tyrion was disquited by how many appointments LF had made throughout the bureaucracy of the Seven Kingdoms.

[the_yeti]

[quote name='Nightflyer' post='1416302' date='Jun 26 2008, 11.35']Think about who the Antler Men are. They are bankers, artificers, well-to-do businessmen. Does this sound like a likely group of revolutionaries and traitors? [b] These men were prosperous, and prosperous people are always the strongest supporters of the status quo.[/b][/quote]

I like the theory but I have to nitpick a little bit, During the American Revolution, some of the strongest supporters for revolution were very prosperous men. John Hancock for instance was very prosperous, he got most of his money through smuggling and tax evasion but he was prosperous none the less.

[MTGAP]

There is a huge flaw with this theory. A society contains millions of people with billions of links between them. It is impossible to predict where all those links are going to go. How could Varys know that the rise of the middle class would lead to the end of the medieval ages? Also, even if he did, why try to stop it? The medieval ages were actually a very bad time to live in. And where's the profit for Varys? Is it some weird religious thing?

[SerBrightflame]

Wasn't all-for-Joffrey a peasant at Harrenhal tortured by the tickler?

[Waylin Stark]

Great theory. Could be possible