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Mafia 57: The stowaways


House Targaryen

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[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1518521' date='Sep 15 2008, 10.31']Well, if you don't want to say if you are friend or not, it's your saint right. Just stop calling Stonetree names. It isn't healthy for the game.[/quote]
Where did I call him a name? Quote it for me right now.
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[quote name='House Volmark' post='1518526' date='Sep 15 2008, 11.34']Where did I call him a name? Quote it for me right now.[/quote]You called his move foolish, in post #274. By itself, it isn't a big deal... but the context is, er, too aggressive. Let's calm, people. In such a game, there are often some situations forcing us to do something we don't want. Stonetree revealed, ok. It was probably suboptimal move, but, anyway, it's past, it's what happened already. We can't do anything about this, so, please, move on.
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[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1518542' date='Sep 15 2008, 10.43']You called his move foolish, in post #274. By itself, it isn't a big deal... but the context is, er, too aggressive. Let's calm, people. In such a game, there are often some situations forcing us to do something we don't want. Stonetree revealed, ok. It was probably suboptimal move, but, anyway, it's past, it's what happened already. We can't do anything about this, so, please, move on.[/quote]
Ok, so I never called [i]him[/i] a name. Overdefensiveness and playing with a thin skin makes small issues larger. You telling me to not voice my opinion and accusing me of doing something I didn't (calling him a name) is counterproductive to creating the healthier atmosphere that you are advocating. FYI.

I'm writing another post as I post this one that moves our discussion in a different direction while we wait for people to check in from Stonetree's list or for Stonetree to reveal the information anyway (likely the case).
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No surprise on Stonetree's reveal. Had him as an obvious innocent from the very start.

I'm sad to see Botley isn't on his investigation list, because I think Botley looks pretty damn suspicious right now. Would have loved a Botley lynch today. And yes, Goodbrother, I will be posting reasons. Starting the game on a weekend is a surefire way to lower my level of participation. Now that the week has started, I'll have more time to post.

Which is bad news for you, Goodbrother. Because I'll be coming after you as well.

Also want to take closer looks at Orkwood, Harlaw, and Kenning. The last one mainly because I've actually felt pretty good about him....but I get the impression that I'm the only one who feels that way. Need to explore that a bit more.
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No sense in just waiting around for everyone on the list to come in, we can still continue other discussions.

Vote count at the end of the day:
7 votes for Wynch ( Drumm, Orkwood, Kenning, Botley, Goodbrother, Volmark, Saltcliffe)-Not that it really matters, but Goodbrother actually voted first
2 votes for Orkwood ( Myre, [s]Wynch[/s])
1 vote for Goodbrother ( [s]Merlyn[/s])
1 vote for Harlaw ( Stonetree)
1 vote for Stonetree ( Harlaw)

1 players have not voted: Farwynd
Assuming that we have 4 baddies, there are 3 unknowns off the lynch (Myre, Harlaw, and Farwynd) trusting Stonetree's innocence for now) and 6 on the lynch (Drumm, Orkwood, Kenning, Goodbrother, Botley, and Saltcliffe). I would be surprised to see 2/3 off the lynch to be guilty really, so my guess is that the majority of the baddies (3/4 or at least 2/4) are on the lynch. Drumm and Saltcliffe don't garner additional suspicion from their votes because Drumm was the first and seemed genuine in his suspicion and Saltcliffe was last which can be a dangerous place for an FM to drop a vote.

Next, I pulled out the votes that are from the area that FM most often drop them (Yes, they may know that it is a dangerous place to vote, but people do it anyway every game). So we'll have Orkwood, Kenning, Botley, and Goodbrother.

[quote name='House Orkwood' post='1517325' date='Sep 14 2008, 07.05']The main problem I have with Wynch is that he should have seen Merlyn's post claiming he had a lot of votes before posting his joke vote. These posts are on the same page (no matter how many posts per page you are set on). If there was a worry about it, why vote in the first place?
Then after he removes his vote, he double checks and finds that Merlynd only has a couple of votes and calls Merlyn a liar. But Merlyn does say "give or take a few" meaning he knows he is not half way to being lynched, he was just exaggerating, and admitted it.

I am seriously bothered by [b]Wynch[/b][/quote]
Orkwood was the second vote of the lynch, which isn't ordinarily a suspicious area, but it was actually the third at the time (Kenning jumped on and off). His vote was pretty bandwagon-y for the time it happened and didn't really offer that much in terms of original thought (no, not every vote has to). Orkwood also said he was 'seriously bothered' by Wynch, which would lead me to believe he would stay on lynch and advocate some for the lynch. This didn't happen at all, his only mention of lynch was really when Wynch attacked back at him and he defended himself strenuously. The other main issue for me, just came up recently actually. In post [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=30858&view=findpost&p=1518428"]261[/url] he says Stonetree is "making a very BIG mistake", which surprised me because, although the situation is a bit different, he was in favor of Stonetree's earlier plan of having the friends outed ([url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=30858&view=findpost&p=1517772"]Post 150[/url]). For rather similar situations, it seems like a pretty drastic difference. To go along with the vibe that I, and some others had, it seems like a somewhat nervous FM, perhaps he and/or his partner is/are on the list?

[quote name='House Kenning' post='1517702' date='Sep 14 2008, 15.36']Anyway, [b]Wynch[/b]. Salty conveniently disappeared, and the list thing I still expect him to explain, since it's the only thing bothering me about him, but it's pretty big. I have re-read Ork and have absolutely no intention of lynching him today.

Should be back before the limit, but the vote is just in case.[/quote]
Pretty standard bandwagon vote, however my suspicion here is a bit less because he had been voting Wynch earlier and is just moving his vote back. It does fit what what he had said before moving off of Wynch while Wynch was gone and then moving back to his favored lynch after voting Saltcliffe. The reason I still find him a bit suspicious is he never really pushed the lynch even though Wynch seemed to be his first choice and he didn't really offer that much in terms of thoughts.
[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1517775' date='Sep 14 2008, 17.12']I personally wanted to wait longer, but considering our short time I believe [b]Wynch[/b] is the best candidate.[/quote]
Goodbrother has a very blatant bandwagon vote in a sort of throw-away post that really bothers me. He has given very little in the way of thoughts and what he has given just don't really jive with me. He calls out Orkwood for bandwagoning (doesn't follow up), votes Botley since he doesn't like Botley's style, and then has no problem jumping on a lynch with them. There is a distinct lack of consistency there and when it is difficult to follow a player's train of thought it usually is not a good thing.
[quote name='House Botley' post='1517776' date='Sep 14 2008, 17.16']Well a lynch I don't entirely agree with is better than no lynch, so [b]Wynch[/b]. Hey, I may be wrong about Wynch. :thumbsup:[/quote]
Finally we have Botley. Botley clearly has no filter between thoughts and posts :P. Botley is posting a lot and is actually giving a decent amount of thoughts. In looking back, I don't really have as much of an issue with this vote as I did before. Although some would be angry with Botley for giving up their convictions, getting a lynch is paramount in my opinion also. The one post that bothered me at the time was [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=30858&view=findpost&p=1517565"]94[/url] where Botley is upset at himself for not being decisive. Rereading that post and the rest of his, it actually comes off as pretty genuine. At first I read that post and it felt like a struggling FM who kept doing something they shouldn't, but really it seems now like an innocent struggling to trust themselves. I suppose Botley is sort of the odd man out here, well Kenning to a certain extent too, in that I have pretty good vibes from them. In terms of where the votes fell, including them seemed to make sense.

Clearly Orkwood and Goodbrother are the two that look the worst. For now, I am going to vote [b]Goodbrother[/b] because they seem to have fallen through the cracks a little more than Orkwood, so I'd like to hear more from them. I'd also note that (WIFOM warning) Merlyn was the only one voting for Goodbrother at the end of the day yesterday ;).

eta- Aw, Myre posted his bad feelings about Goodbrother first :(. Well I was writing mine long before, so I still call dibs :P.
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[quote name='House Volmark' post='1518580' date='Sep 15 2008, 11.23']eta- Aw, Myre posted his bad feelings about Goodbrother first :(. Well I was writing mine long before, so I still call dibs :P.[/quote]

Nah, my dislike for Goodbrother dates back to last night. So I was way ahead of you. :P
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[quote name='House Myre' post='1518609' date='Sep 15 2008, 11.44']Nah, my dislike for Goodbrother dates back to last night. So I was way ahead of you. :P[/quote]
You never voted though so...

Giant Penis Monster-1
Poorly hung opponent-0. ;)


Where'd everyone go? Did Stonetree really scare everyone off?
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Going to take a moment to respond to Goodbrother's 'case' against me.

[quote name='House Goodbrother' post='1518120' date='Sep 14 2008, 23.00']Let see how YOU have played the game so far, last activity 12 hours ago.
You voted for Orkwood then disappoeared without a notice.[/quote]

Yeah, like I said, I was busy.

[quote]Lets take a look at your last post:

For me it seems that you didnt really care who would be lynched, and thats why you were nowhere to be found for 12 hours, during this period there was a lot of activity ( more than 120 posts) lots of votes got changed but yours remained the same and your reason to suspect him is poorly justified.[/quote]

Did you miss the part where I said I was busy?

[quote]After a lynch takes place you come back and start pointing fingers at Botley, me, Orkwood and Merlyn.[/quote]

How is this a point against me?

[quote]You say I posted 20mins after Drumm called for me, well yea I was reading the posts thoroughly and
analyzing them so I could post based on some logic not like your posts that are just mere speculations
made probably in a hurry just to post something.[/quote]

If you were reading posts thoroughly, and 'analyzing them', I certainly haven't seen any evidence of it yet. Show me where you've posted this brilliant analysis. Go ahead. I'd love to read it.

Fact is, it looks as if you got called out for being quiet, and then miraculously appeared in the thread. Can anybody else say 'lurker'? There's a significant difference between somebody who is busy during the weekend (me) and somebody who basically admits to lurking (you).

[quote]You are still suspicious if Orkwood because of his post in the beginning of the game! This shows again
you dont care/want to put any effort in your reasoning and posts.[/quote]

I was suspicious of Orkwood at the beginning of the game. He hasn't done anything to diminish that suspicion. That said, I will be re-reading him and a few others now.

[quote]As for your list of people who you like, I dont know how did you come to that conclusion because you didnt
provide us with enough reasoning and logic AGAIN.[/quote]

It was night. Have patience.
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I am away for a meeting which might take a bit longer. I still think the friends should reveal, but since a majority disagrees, I might as well give you the name of the roled player that I investigated last night:


[b]ORKWOOD[/b]


Yes, the same Orkwood who liked my day 1 plan so much. If he was a friend, he would have revealed yesterday, wouldn't he?


The good thing is that we can narrow down his partner to only few players. We had a lynchmob on Orkwood yesterday, which clears Myre and Botley. Kenning also had some little interaction that genuinely souned like they don't know each other. Goodbrother hopped on Wynch's mob, when both Orkwood and Wynch were at three votes. Harlaw and Saltcliffe suspected Orkwood, but never voted him IIRC. Unfortunatly I cannot find my notes right now, so I will add more informations later.




One question is if we should lynch him straight away or if we keep him alive to force the other team to kill him?



CU in a while.....
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[quote name='House Volmark' post='1518652' date='Sep 15 2008, 12.20']Why did you just bother defending yourself in that long ass post that basically amounted to, "I'm busy"?[/quote]

When a case is made against me, I almost always respond. Even if the case sucks. Because, if I suspect the person making the case, I view it as an opportunity to turn things around them. Rather than just let Goodbrother's case go unanswered, I'd prefer to engage him in discussion.
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[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1518418' date='Sep 15 2008, 09.26']I really hate do do this, but it's time for me to give up the charade. I will be even more busy this week than I originally planned, and I might even risk a modkill after day 3 (will be on a trip from Thursday on). There is also a good chance that I might be killed next night. I hope you understand that I try to play it safe because of that.


[color="#FF0000"][b]I am the Lonely Wolf, innocent version.
[/b][/color]


I have investigated a player last night, and I got a 'roled' result. Since that player might still be one of the friends, I will give them another chance to reveal before I announce the name of that player. If there's no reveal I will assume that my investigation result is guilty.



Since I don't want a friend reveal from a player that I do already trust (a bit), I will give you a shortlist of players that I might have investigated:


Drumm

Goodbrother

Harlaw

Kenning

Orkwood

Saltcliffe[/quote]
What the hell. First of all, revealing was really dumb. Second of all, a friend reveal could help the FM. You could just be trying to get someone to reveal so you can kill them. This makes me trust you even less.
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[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1518660' date='Sep 15 2008, 12.32']I am away for a meeting which might take a bit longer. I still think the friends should reveal, but since a majority disagrees, I might as well give you the name of the roled player that I investigated last night:


[b]ORKWOOD[/b]


Yes, the same Orkwood who liked my day 1 plan so much. If he was a friend, he would have revealed yesterday, wouldn't he?


The good thing is that we can narrow down his partner to only few players. We had a lynchmob on Orkwood yesterday, which clears Myre and Botley. Kenning also had some little interaction that genuinely souned like they don't know each other. Goodbrother hopped on Wynch's mob, when both Orkwood and Wynch were at three votes. Harlaw and Saltcliffe suspected Orkwood, but never voted him IIRC. Unfortunatly I cannot find my notes right now, so I will add more informations later.




One question is if we should lynch him straight away or if we keep him alive to force the other team to kill him?



CU in a while.....[/quote]
Hmm. I am torn. On the one hand, you are acting strangely with all this speculation and revealing and stuff. On the other hand, I don't like Orkwood either.
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[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1518660' date='Sep 15 2008, 12.32']I am away for a meeting which might take a bit longer. I still think the friends should reveal, but since a majority disagrees, I might as well give you the name of the roled player that I investigated last night:

[b]ORKWOOD[/b]

[u]Yes, the same Orkwood who liked my day 1 plan so much. If he was a friend, he would have revealed yesterday, wouldn't he?[/u][/quote]
Glad to know that you did know a bit more than you let on. You were right in revealing your information, although I maybe would have done it differently. To each his own :). He certainly would have revealed yesterday if he was a friend. The only other possibility would be if you were lying and they were an innocent lone wolf. I wouldn't put any stock in that at all though. After looking at the votes from yesterday, it seemed pretty clear Orkwood was a strong candidate for lynching today.
[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1518660' date='Sep 15 2008, 12.32']The good thing is that we can narrow down his partner to only few players. We had a lynchmob on Orkwood yesterday, which clears Myre and Botley. Kenning also had some little interaction that genuinely souned like they don't know each other. Goodbrother hopped on Wynch's mob, when both Orkwood and Wynch were at three votes. Harlaw and Saltcliffe suspected Orkwood, but never voted him IIRC. Unfortunatly I cannot find my notes right now, so I will add more informations later.[/quote]
Goodbrother casted only weak suspicion towards Orkwood (calling out a bandwagon vote and that was it), so that could conceivably have been an attempt to distance. I'll have to take a look back to find out about others.
[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1518660' date='Sep 15 2008, 12.32']One question is if we should lynch him straight away or if we keep him alive to force the other team to kill him?[/quote]
I don't think the other team would kill him because they probably would prefer to have us 'waste' a lynch somewhere else rather than potentially lynching them. [b]Orkwood [/b]needs to go today IMO. I would like to have more discussion today though and hear more from some of our quieter folks, Goodbrother in particular.
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[quote name='House Farwynd' post='1518685' date='Sep 15 2008, 12.57']Ok, since I am leaving for a while, [b]Orkwood[/b]. It isn't one of my favorite lynches, but you know I always believed Stonetree and I really hope his reveal won't be wasted.[/quote]
Why wouldn't a pretty much confirmed baddie be one of your favorite lynches?
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[quote name='House Stonetree' post='1518660' date='Sep 15 2008, 12.32']I am away for a meeting which might take a bit longer. I still think the friends should reveal, but since a majority disagrees, I might as well give you the name of the roled player that I investigated last night:


[b]ORKWOOD[/b]


Yes, the same Orkwood who liked my day 1 plan so much. If he was a friend, he would have revealed yesterday, wouldn't he?


The good thing is that we can narrow down his partner to only few players. We had a lynchmob on Orkwood yesterday, which clears Myre and Botley. Kenning also had some little interaction that genuinely souned like they don't know each other. Goodbrother hopped on Wynch's mob, when both Orkwood and Wynch were at three votes. Harlaw and Saltcliffe suspected Orkwood, but never voted him IIRC. Unfortunatly I cannot find my notes right now, so I will add more informations later.




One question is if we should lynch him straight away or if we keep him alive to force the other team to kill him?



CU in a while.....[/quote]

A lot of things changed since yesterday. We had a reveal plan. Merlyn was my partner, and he was to reveal, but was not able to get back before the end of the day, and then ended up dead.
He was the one who coded his post with the word "friend" so I could later refer back to it.

Who was attacking Merlyn yesterday? Wynch. Who did I go after? Wynch. Who defended me? Merlyn.

I wasn't really confused by the kill. Someone even said in the thread there was a connection between us.

So there you have it. One friend dead, the over friend outed by the LW. go innocents.
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