Syrio Forel =/= Jaquen

[AvengingAryaFan]

He's in full plate.

If he's disarmed, Syrio could do some pretty vicious things to Trant's arms and head if he was bending over reaching for a sword.

I'm assuming, fairly I think, that Syrio, being lighter and faster, could be all over Trant (once he was disarmed), while Trant couldn't catch Syrio. It's asymmetrical that way.

[Errant Bard]

I'm assuming, fairly I think, that Syrio, being lighter and faster, could be all over Trant (once he was disarmed), while Trant couldn't catch Syrio. It's asymmetrical that way.

You mean, like Oberyn was all over Gregor? Yeah, probably like that.

[AvengingAryaFan]

No offence, but this is (from my point of view) just a lengthy attempt to stand up a pretty out-there claim with no basis in actual experience. You could have saved yourself all that typing, because it doesn't succeed.

...

It's ironic that you miss the one genuine vulnerability of plate armour, which is that once you are rendered hors de combat it is actually relatively straightforward to kill you. A thrust in the armpit or groin, and that's that.

You clearly have a different definition of "succeed" than I do.

In respect of the effectiveness of hits with a sword, you're talking about steel swords; but Syrio has a wooden sword, with different characteristics. Flexibility. Crushability. Splinterability. But it does have the weight of a lead core. Do you have first-hand experience with such a wooden sword? I dispute your engineering analysis.

The issue of Trant's vulnerability is relevant, because it suggests that Syrio did NOT knock him out, or, while armed, have him disarmed and grounded, because I believe the logic says that Syrio would then have killed him to eliminate him as a witness. That Syrio would kill him if he was able isn't necessary to my position (cuts against it a bit, in fact), but it seems more likely than my earlier conjecture that Syrio simply chose to leave Trant alive.

My current favorite theories are: Syrio outdanced Trant, or Syrio disarmed him and Trant beat feet due to the vulnerabilities you mentioned.

[AvengingAryaFan]

You mean, like Oberyn was all over Gregor? Yeah, probably like that.

LOL. NEVER get that close to a living Mountain. But an unarmed Trant wouldn't be quite as much threat as an unarmed Gregor, would he?

[mormont]

You clearly have a different definition of "succeed" than I do.

If so, I think I am using the standard one, i.e. achieving what you set out to do. I don't think, honestly, you can claim to have done that.

Do you have any expertise in any relevant area? What do you know about wooden swords, for example? Where is the lead weighting in these? How does it affect the point of balance? What type of wood are they made of? What properties of that wood make it suitable, and how do those affect your analysis? Is steel more flexible than this type of wood, or vice versa? What effect does that have on your analysis? Do you know how to locate the 'weak' and the 'strong' areas of a blade, wooden or otherwise? Which would you use to strike? Does the type of sword being used affect this? And so on.

If you're purporting to have given a comprehensive explanation as to why Syrio could knock Trant out more easily with the hilt than the blade, these are just a selection of the questions you need to answer.

ETA - mind you, it would ultimately be pointless even if you could. Because what matters is whether GRRM could answer all these questions: whether he thinks that in a hypothetical situation like the above, Syrio could knock Trant out. This we do not know, as GRRM has never written the scene as far as any of us are aware, or indeed any scene featuring Syrio after AGOT.

[Errant Bard]

LOL. NEVER get that close to a living Mountain. But an unarmed Trant wouldn't be quite as much threat as an unarmed Gregor, would he?

Why not? You still didn't bring anything but your prejudice to form the conclusion that Gregor is oh so much threatening.

I said Trant was way better than Gregor. Bring your evidence of the contrary (though I think you have as many as me: none)

[Blackthrone]

Can people please stop saying "Syrio could have picked up one of the guardsmen's swords"?

Syrio is a fencer. He fights using light swords, mostly for thrusting, a little bit for slashing as well. What precisely does he know about using a Westerosi arming sword? Does he seriously know enough about the arts of combat on a place most Braavosi consider to be an uncivilized backwater that he would be competent with it? He probably knows nothing more about "the knight's dance" than that it's something completely foreign to him. "Stick them with the pointy end" doesn't work so well on a dude in full plate.

And that's assuming that he would have had time to bend down, grab a sword, straighten up, and defend himself before Trant cut him in half.

[WinterRyan]

Can people please stop saying "Syrio could have picked up one of the guardsmen's swords"?

Syrio is a fencer. He fights using light swords, mostly for thrusting, a little bit for slashing as well. What precisely does he know about using a Westerosi arming sword? Does he seriously know enough about the arts of combat on a place most Braavosi consider to be an uncivilized backwater that he would be competent with it? He probably knows nothing more about "the knight's dance" than that it's something completely foreign to him. "Stick them with the pointy end" doesn't work so well on a dude in full plate.

And that's assuming that he would have had time to bend down, grab a sword, straighten up, and defend himself before Trant cut him in half.

He was a plot point for:

1. Cliche older master that starts the hero (heroine) on their path

2. Heroic sacrifice

3.Foreshadowing of the honor of the Braavosi

clearly he is dead as his use is over- he trained her, he gallantly stood up for her to survive, he created a tie to her future choice...

let him go and move on to the plethora of other great characters still alive

[AvengingAryaFan]

If so, I think I am using the standard one, i.e. achieving what you set out to do. I don't think, honestly, you can claim to have done that.

sigh. I was gently hinting that I know, better than you, what I set out to do. Yes, I can honestly claim to have done that. Trust me: I didn't set out to convince you.

ETA - mind you, it would ultimately be pointless even if you could. Because what matters is whether GRRM could answer all these questions: whether he thinks that in a hypothetical situation like the above, Syrio could knock Trant out. This we do not know, as GRRM has never written the scene as far as any of us are aware, or indeed any scene featuring Syrio after AGOT.

Just so.

As far as expertise, I have a lot of experience with wood, with steel, and with engineering analyses. The points I make are worth considering by some people, and that's good enough for me.

Actually, one of my goals is to explore theories about ASOIAF. Not infrequently, somebody makes a good point I hadn't thought of. Even you may have. A while ago I was considering the theory that SF=FM=Jaqen H'ghar. In one of EB's serious modes, he asked some good questions that challenged the theory. Upon review of some details to see if they were as the theory would predict, I concluded they were not, and have therefore withdrawn my support for that particular theory. It's still possible, but in my mind very unlikely. My point is, I'm not here to prove I'm right, I'm here to argue the probabilities, and to get ideas about the books and the theories.

I'd be happy to change my mind on this topic, except the more I consider it the more the details, hints and plot considerations seem to support a likelihood that Syrio lived, and will reappear. Not a great likelihood, in my mind, but better than 50/50.

I'd like to know why you think that Syrio would basically commit suicide, by walking into a situation he had no hope of surviving, merely to give Arya a bit of a head start, - just to give her a possibility of not being caught and ... used as a bargaining chip. That's the worst that's likely to happen to her if she's caught. And the alternative he offers her instead, if he succeeds in helping her escape, is: a life on the lam. So being a captive bargaining chip is so much worse than being on the lam that Syrio would gladly give up his life just to improve the odds of that outcome? Notice his death wouldn't guarantee anything. So what is it about Syrio that would cause him to give up his life for such a small gain?

Or did he simply misjudge his ability to survive? He seemed to think he could survive five guardsmen plus Trant. Is he so stupid in these matters that he thought he could manage all six of them, but now he's completely unable to manage Trant alone?

Ach, Mormont, I don't think you could change your mind if your life depended on it.

[Serc]

AAF makes some very good points.

And EB, the Mountain was clearly much more dangerous than Trant. He was much huger, was able to crush a man with his bare hands while poisoned, completely wthout any moral scruples (he smashed a girls face in for speaking while he raped her) and has (IIRC) a much huger sword with longer range.

Trant: we have a look of disdain from a skilled person, we have Kettlebak saying he or his brother (one of the two, I forget) could take him with ease, not to mention his various physical characteristics: baggy eyed, seemingly older, etc. We also know he was NOT picked due to his fighting ability to be a KG.

[AvengingAryaFan]

Why not? You still didn't bring anything but your prejudice to form the conclusion that Gregor is oh so much threatening.

I said Trant was way better than Gregor. Bring your evidence of the contrary (though I think you have as many as me: none)

Do you deny that Cersei thought the Mountain was unbeatable? That his invincibility seemed to be the consensus of almost everybody but Oberyn? Bronn, who has beaten every person he's fought, thought it would be certain death to fight Gregor (I'll fight for you, Tyrion, but I won't die for you). Those items are supported textually, I'm quite sure. Do you claim that Selmy would say contemptuously that he could cut through a fully armored Gregor Clegane, plus four others, "as easily as a dagger cuts cheese?"

If I thought this was a potential weakness in my argument, I'd make the effort to find textual quotes for support. But I don't think many would challenge the contention that the Mountain was vastly more dangerous than Trant; I'm not going waste my time proving a widely accepted contention. Tell you what: when this is one of our last remaining points of contention, and a conclusion of whether Syrio is almost certainly dead, or has a reasonable chance of being alive, turns on this point, then I'll search the text for more definitive support. And if I come across it in a reread, I'll try to remember to pass it along to you.

[mormont]

sigh. I was gently hinting that I know, better than you, what I set out to do. Yes, I can honestly claim to have done that. Trust me: I didn't set out to convince you.

I was presuming that you set out to make some sort of case that backed up your claim that a strike with the hilt was more likely to knock Trant out than a strike with the blade. This, you have clearly failed to do, because you have not even addressed some of the basic questions that would enable you to make the case. So you can claim to have done it if you like, I suppose: but you still haven't, I'm afraid.

But as I say, none of this gets us any further. I enjoy the discussions about the battle odds because it's something I know a little about (and I stress, a little, at least compared to the experts I know): but since GRRM doesn't really know even that much, and in any case is perfectly at liberty to ignore these things if he likes, it's pointless.

What it boils down to is that Syrio could have won the fight if GRRM wants to write the story that way. But there is, I repeat, not one good reason to think that he did. No matter how many times the same bits and pieces are repeated or stacked together, they still don't amount to even as much as one of the (repeated) mentions of Tyrek's fate, or a single one of the hints of R+L=J, or that Alleras is Sarella, or even one of the many hints contained within a single chapter that the gravedigger is Sandor. GRRM has no problem leaving hints that pass the casual reader but are unmistakable in retrospect. There is not one such hint in this case.

I, too, enjoy exploring theories about ASOIAF, and have been doing it for years. This theory is honestly one of the weakest that I have seen in that time. Not the weakest, certainly, but simply not capable of standing up. You rate it over 50%: I rate it at not even 5%.

Ach, Mormont, I don't think you could change your mind if your life depended on it.

Oh, I've changed my mind on many theories, and been proved wrong on many more. Happy to admit it. :) I think you should consider that my certainty in this case is not habitual, but situational - that honestly, this particular theory is just not as strong as you think it is.

[Errant Bard]

And EB, the Mountain was clearly much more dangerous than Trant. He was much huger, was able to crush a man with his bare hands while poisoned, completely wthout any moral scruples (he smashed a girls face in for speaking while he raped her) and has (IIRC) a much huger sword with longer range.

Trant: we have a look of disdain from a skilled person, we have Kettlebak saying he or his brother (one of the two, I forget) could take him with ease, not to mention his various physical characteristics: baggy eyed, seemingly older, etc. We also know he was NOT picked due to his fighting ability to be a KG.

I took that stance to get evidences, not speculation. There seem some facts stretching going on with the usual Gregor-Oberyn/Trant-Syrio comparison:

1. Syrio is as good or better than Oberyn. Nothing is less certain, yet this is usually stretched further in the idea that Unarmed Syrio would be as efficient as armed Oberyn
   
2. Gregor is better than Trant. Not clear once again. Gregor is huge with a huge sword, so what, Oberyn was not, Bronn was not. He had no moral scruple, so what, Oberyn had them, Arthur Dayne had them, Jaime has them, Selmy has them, and they're good fighters. Trant... was not the one Osmund Kettleback said he could take (if you're referring to: "Boros the Belly?" Ser Osmund chortled. "He's what, forty? Fifty? half-drunk half the time, fat even when he's sober. If he ever had a taste for battle, he's lost it.), Jaime himself was not picked due to his fighting ability, doesn't mean he hasn't it. And if you base yourself on physical characteristics, Syrio looks old too (heck, he admits he's old, and that others even in his prime were faster and stronger)
   
3. Circumstances are the same. Definitely not true. One case has the unarmoured guy possessing a tool to keep the armoured one at bay, space to dance, the other, the opposite. And Trant is possibly more mobile.
   

These are always used as if they were facts, and the ones using them take the liberty to even exaggerate one way or another a gap that may well not be there. That leaves some ambiguous body gestures. That's not evidence, at least not enough to use a made up "power ranking" to support an argument.

Note that the exact same thing happened with Selmy. There were attempts to pass the speculation that Syrio would be as dangerous or more to other knights than Selmy as facts, when nothing at all corroborates it, while at the same time asserting that what Selmy says in a fit of rage was not a boast but his subjective truth as well as the objective truth. In the same breath it is usually said that what Syrio says is a lie, to contrast.

[Errant Bard]

Do you deny that Cersei thought the Mountain was unbeatable?

I deny that Cersei is a good judge of... anything.

That his invincibility seemed to be the consensus of almost everybody but Oberyn?

Yes, I deny it. Bronn thought it would be chancy, not suicide, let me quote:

"if he didn't frighten me, I'd be a bloody fool." Bronn gave a shrug. "Might be I could take him. Dance around him until he was so tired of hacking at me that he couldn't lift his sword. Get him off his feet somehow. When they're flat on their backs it don't matter how tall they are. Even so, it's chancy. One misstep and I'm dead. Why should I risk it? I like you well enough, ugly little whoreson that you are ... but if I fight your battle, I lose either way. Either the Mountain spills my guts, or I kill him and lose Stokeworth. I sell my sword, I don't give it away. I'm not your bloody brother."

And there's Jaime, Selmy, Sandor, Beric, Loras, Robert, Thoros, Ned, etc who textually didn't think him "invincible"

Do you claim that Selmy would say contemptuously that he could cut through a fully armored Gregor Clegane, plus four others, "as easily as a dagger cuts cheese?"

Yes I do. What in the text contradicts me? I assert that what Selmy says is a boast, so I assert that no matter who would stand in front of him, he would have said it.

I'm not going waste my time proving a widely accepted contention.

"Widely accepted" never meant "true". How often is it repeated in the R+L=J that most don't believe in it, that it's not obvious and yadda yadda, go preach to them that majority opinion is truth. Bring the evidence and it's supported, evade, and it's speculation and no basis for a sound argument.

[Serc]

Ah, that was about Boros? My bad.

I still say that it is possible to somewhat compare the two. Generaly, anyways.... in this, so far every fight we have had evidence that the quicker person seems to win. Against this we have the fact that Syrio was not armored and not well armed. I don't think it is as impossible as people seem to be saying that Syrio could have picked up a sword, but then again, I don't regularily make a study of fighting people to learn what the chances are.

I believe we can say with some certainty that there is possibility that Syrio won the fight. Anything can happen, as was proved with Oberyn. Trant may or may not make a stupid error like that during the fight, like completely unbalancing himself with no way to avoid being tripped or something.

I don't think anyone can say for certainty that Syrio is dead or alive unless GRRM specifically tells us, and he has been very ambiguous on the case.

[Errant Bard]

I believe we can say with some certainty that there is possibility that Syrio won the fight. Anything can happen, as was proved with Oberyn. Trant may or may not make a stupid error like that during the fight, like completely unbalancing himself with no way to avoid being tripped or something.

Yes, it's true, there is always a possibility that, for example, pig could fly. It's a work of fiction and any venue not explicitly closed by the author is explorable.

However, and that's the argument, that it can happen does not make it equally likely, or likely at all, to happen than the scenario towards which all the story points (this includes the story itself and the narrative rules)

I've argued this very point against R+L=J once so I know what you mean, but I see a key difference between the two in that facts close off the alternate theories in the Syrio debate, when the mystery of Jon's origin is still very much in the air and nothing substantial exists to block alternate interpretations. To borrow words from GRRM, for Syrio it's "Syrio isn't immortal, draw your own conclusions", for Jon it's "It will be revealed, have a cheetos", quite a different outlook, and quite a different treatment in the narrative, to follow.

[AvengingAryaFan]

I was presuming that you set out to make some sort of case that backed up your claim that a strike with the hilt was more likely to knock Trant out than a strike with the blade. This, you have clearly failed to do, because you have not even addressed some of the basic questions that would enable you to make the case. So you can claim to have done it if you like, I suppose: but you still haven't, I'm afraid.

I have made "some sort of case" that a strike with the hilt would be potentially effective. Your opinion, thoughtful and well-informed though it is, is not dispositive. Compared to a shortened stick sword, a hilt hit is probably a good idea. But there are many things Forel could do, hitting Trant in the head or sword hand with the hilt of his (shortened) weighted wooden sword being just two of them.

Oh, I've changed my mind on many theories, and been proved wrong on many more. Happy to admit it. :) I think you should consider that my certainty in this case is not habitual, but situational - that honestly, this particular theory is just not as strong as you think it is.

As to the former, surprised but glad to hear it. As to the latter - at least I like >50% versus <5% better than ~50% versus 1%. By all means, stick to your guns. I understand your reasoning, and neither of us minds disagreeing with another.

[mormont]

I have made "some sort of case" that a strike with the hilt would be potentially effective.

You really haven't, though, I'm afraid. Without any idea of the weight of the weapon before or after the severing, the distribution of that weight, the materials, the arc of the swing involved in either strike, and all the other things raised by the questions above you cannot even begin to estimate the impacts involved. So, logically, you do not have even the beginnings of a case until those questions are answered.

As to the former, surprised but glad to hear it. As to the latter - at least I like >50% versus <5% better than ~50% versus 1%. By all means, stick to your guns. I understand your reasoning, and neither of us minds disagreeing with another.

Sure. :)

[AvengingAryaFan]

I deny that Cersei is a good judge of... anything.

Yes, I deny it. Bronn thought it would be chancy, not suicide, let me quote:

"if he didn't frighten me, I'd be a bloody fool." Bronn gave a shrug. "Might be I could take him. Dance around him until he was so tired of hacking at me that he couldn't lift his sword. Get him off his feet somehow. When they're flat on their backs it don't matter how tall they are. Even so, it's chancy. One misstep and I'm dead. Why should I risk it? I like you well enough, ugly little whoreson that you are ... but if I fight your battle, I lose either way. Either the Mountain spills my guts, or I kill him and lose Stokeworth. I sell my sword, I don't give it away. I'm not your bloody brother."

And there's Jaime, Selmy, Sandor, Beric, Loras, Robert, Thoros, Ned, etc who textually didn't think him "invincible"

Yes I do. What in the text contradicts me? I assert that what Selmy says is a boast, so I assert that no matter who would stand in front of him, he would have said it.

"Widely accepted" never meant "true". How often is it repeated in the R+L=J that most don't believe in it, that it's not obvious and yadda yadda, go preach to them that majority opinion is truth. Bring the evidence and it's supported, evade, and it's speculation and no basis for a sound argument.

Thanks, good post. I see I'm wrong again, this time about exactly what Bronn said. Still, what Bronn said about Gregor applies to Trant as well; dancing about seemed even to Bronn to be a practical solution. But I still maintain that Gregor was rated vastly higher than Trant by any measure. Selmy has a widespread reputation to support his boast, and we've seen him destroy the Titan's Bastard, too, as well as nipping the manticore. If your argument relies on Trant being equivalent to Gregor, you're on very shaky ground. Believe it at peril to your reputation, that's all. My opinion matters not at all in that regard.

One can't argue "truth" about things unknown, when they are within the arbitrary power of GRRM. I don't even try. I'm trying to show that GRRM has left lots of clues, which, if Syrio reappeared, we'd look back at and say "Oh, I see he hinted at Syrio's survival." I'm trying to show that it would be very reasonable, in the context of everything GRRM has indicated in ASOIAF, that Syrio survived. If you give good weight to Syrio's own state of mind - i.e., I don't think there's any reasons to believe him suicidal or stupid, or ignorant about his abilities vs. armored knights - I believe the odds slightly favor Syrio's survival. Barely, though, because he's clearly in peril.

[Szar]

You can try it, but that doesn't mean you succeed. I have yet to see even one piece of evidence that could foreshadow Syrio being alive. I don't see it as a reasonable outcome; far from it. Syrio isn't immortal. He's not young. He is unarmed, and the weapons within reach do not fit his fighting style at all. He has no protection other than his speed, and it has already been shown to be insufficient when he has to sacrifice his only weapon to avoid getting hit. He claims he won't run away, and from his behavior at every other point in the story, I'm inclined to believe him -- especially since he is obviously trying to give Arya time to run away. By all indications, Trant is at least an adequate fighter. Add to this that Trant doesn't seem injured when we see him next, that we haven't seen hide or hair of Syrio since, and really... the conclusion is obvious.