Syrio Forel =/= Jaquen

[Shemy]

(killing 5 redcloaks means Syrio is more likely to have survived than if he killed 5 goldcloaks)

:D

This is why I gave up posting.

Not to mention that Syrio already had to parry less than one minute into the fight and as a result got his stick chopped in half, proving that even if Syrio is a better fighter that he can indeed be caught by Trant. With no stick to parry I imagine the next blow would touch skin.

Next we'll have a debate about Syrio making that parry made him all the more alert because he can no longer parry and as such will be untouchable.

The debates brought up for Syrio to be alive are just looking for any conceivable way for Syrio to be alive, they are not pointing towards him being alive for Martin to get the readers to consider that he might have survived.

Especially considering he has given no clues or hints to him being alive after the fight, or in the next 3 books.

[mormont]

Your primary reliance on the "bare" fact that Syrio's skin is unarmored seems like "thin protection" against the accumulation of many small evidential hints that support the likelihood of Syrio surviving his encounter with Trant.

There are no such hints.

ETA: to be clearer, and to anticipate your objections, there are clearly things that you believe are hints. But it takes more than belief to make evidence.

[Guest Ontology Interface Layer]

This is why I gave up posting.

Honestly, that's not a bad idea.

Next we'll have a debate about Syrio making that parry made him all the more alert because he can no longer parry and as such will be untouchable.

However there is some definite entertainment value to just switching sides and posting more along those lines. Everything proves Syrio is even more likely to be alive than everything else already did! Not having seen any sign of Syrio in the last three books makes it more likely that he's alive than if we had seen him..because how would we know if that was really him if we saw him, and not a Faceless Man? Yep, his complete absence makes the case that he's alive even stronger! :smug:

[Szar]

I cheerfully acknowledge my error. As you correctly point out, they were Lannister guardsmen. Which means they should have been better trained than the gold cloaks, who are mere city watchmen. Which means Syrio's startlingly quick dispatch of them was very impressive. Which means that Syrio is at least as good as his reputation and former position as First Sword of Braavos suggest.

It's ironic that I thought Syrio dispatched mere city watchmen, because the prowess demonstrated by Syrio is a very powerful argument in favor of his survival. In ASOIAF, at least, it seems that the better fighter, not the better armed and armored fighter, most often wins one-on-one battles (see, e.g., Barristan vs. Mero the Titan's Bastard).

Thank you. This correction of my error throws a little more dirt on the coffin of the contention that Syrio is definitely dead.

You are taking the concept of "reaching" to new, hitherto unforeseen levels...

We don't know the correlation of skill between red cloaks and gold cloaks. Therefore, your post makes no sense whatsoever. No one has argued that Syrio's show of skill wasn't impressive -- but realize the difference between being armored in mail shirts over leather with steel caps and being armored head-to-toe in full plate-and-mail. Syrio could easily kill the guards because he could strike extremely vulnerable areas -- the throat, the groin. Trant has all of them covered.

Quite right. By the way, I don't make factual errors on purpose, and I'm more than happy to have them corrected.

It's entirely true that Selmy's possession of a sword undercuts my argument, which was based to a significant extent on my incorrect recollection that Selmy was already unarmed. He was merely without helm or breastplate. And, thus partly armored, said (emphasis added): "Have no fear, sers, your king is safe . . . no thanks to you. Even now, I could cut through the five of you as easy as a dagger cuts cheese."

That's an extremely low assessment of their abilities, by a man who unquestionably knows them. Selmy is good, but he's old. Thus, even after your correction, this scene still supports a conclusion that Trant is NOT a very good fighter, which increases the probability of Syrio surviving his encounter with Trant.

It says absolutely nothing of the kind.

You are leaping several bridges, here. First, we don't know the correlation of skill between Barristan Selmy and Syrio Forel. Second, Barristan is probably simply attempting to intimidate them -- and it works. Nothing says he's being honest. Third, nothing says he's correct. Even if he has a low opinion of them, it might not be warranted. Each of these are necessary steps towards drawing the conclusion you are, and you completely ignore them.

It's true that Syrio would tell Arya to run if: a) Syrio believed he would lose to Trant;

but also if b) he thought time was of the essence for her to escape;

c) he thought there was a risk of more Lannisters arriving while he was busy with Trant;

d) he believed there was no safe place to escort her to;

e) he believed they were in hostile territory in which it would be wiser to split up; and/or

f) he had his own business to tend to after he dealt with Trant, and couldn't remain available to help Arya.

While I grant (a) is perfectly plausible, it isn't more plausible than (b), (-c-), (d), (e) or (f), and it's far less plausible than the possibilities b-f taken together. And I'm sure I overlooked some possibilities.

A) is far more plausible. Even great warriors can lose in ASOIAF when overmatched -- see Arthur Dayne, Sandor Clegane, Oberyn Martell, just to name a few. Syrio has half a wooden stick against a trained knight, a knight skilled enough to be enrolled into the Kingsguard. Yes, it is a lesser Kingsguard than has been in ages past, but it is still not to be dismissed. B) and C) do not contradict A). If D) was true, he would have still have no reason to abandon her; an escort is still far better than no escort. E) makes no sense. Split up? Arya is nine years old. Leaving her alone makes no sense, unless not doing so would get her killed -- and if he can beat an armed, armored knight while being unarmed and unarmored, what exactly would threaten her when he was along, short of a dragon? As for F)... he obviously has time enough to fight Trant. Seeing as a fight doesn't have an expiration time, he could easily see Arya out of the Red Keep, at the very least.

Yes, it would be, because there are MANY alternatives to Syrio being killed by Trant. That's one of the reasons that it seems so hubristic to insist that the peril Syrio is clearly left in can only have one practical outcome.

No, there's one alternative -- he doesn't get killed. (There are multiple possible scenarios where that happens, but that's not the same.) We have acknowledged the possibility. We simply dismiss it as utterly improbable, as it is far more likely that Syrio gets killed. It fits the setting, it fits GRRM's attitude towards characters, it makes logical sense, it is consistent with the rest of the story and it provides Arya with a valuable lesson. It is a great exit for a well-liked character -- dying to save his charge.

[Serc]

I just had an amazing thought.

Syrio is a FM - but he's not Jaqen! No, he killed Trant, and changed into him! It explains everything!

:P

(Seriously though, it actually might...)

[A wilding]

Syrio is a FM - but he's not Jaqen! No, he killed Trant, and changed into him! It explains everything!

Actually both Syrio and Trant were FMs. Instantly recognising each other by the secret handshake, they then arranged the deaths of the inconvenient guardsman and for Arya to flee. With the witnesses out of the way "Syrio" became "Trant", to further his mission to destroy the KG from within; while "Trant" became "Jaqen", to further his mission of destroying the Archmaesters. All part of the masterplan to destabilise Westeros so that Braavos can conquer it using their planned puppet ruler, Dany.

[Serc]

I was going to say that he was doing it to assassinate the King if they didn't pay their debts, but yours is much better.

Seriously though, I'm sitting on my theory. No one can disprove it as far as I know, so I can always use it to say I'm right!

[Angalin]

As someone posted upthread, Syrio's story is done. There would be no good payoff for bringing him back. I argued in another thread that there were several plot-based reasons for having Lady Stoneheart around, but there really aren't any for Syrio.

I was going to say that he was doing it to assassinate the King if they didn't pay their debts, but yours is much better.

That's an interesting notion. Would the banks of Braavos be more likely to get paid if Robert died? He wouldn't be able to run up any more debts, at least.

[Aplomb]

Just a question for everyone who is so convinced Syrio is dead because we lost track of him in a situation where death seemed highly likely to some, and we have not seen him since for several books, although no one in the books with reason to know for sure has confirmed him dead based on personal knowledge, and if he did die he'd have every reason to disappear without a trace:

Are you equally convinced Tyrek Lannister is dead? Surviving a full blown "kill the nobles" riot of the type we saw is pretty unlikely if you get separated from the group and disappear into the crowd, and surviving a full blown riot and remaining hidden from his family and society at large since then is even more unlikely, especially when you consider Tyrek unlike Syrio had no reason to want to disappear, yet still no one with reason to know has confirmed him dead based on personal knowledge.

If your answer is, "yeah, no way Tyrek is still alive, it was highly unlikely he could live and if he did we would know by now," then while I disagree with you I think you are at least being consistent.

If your answer is, "eh, maybe or even probably he's dead, but I think there's a chance GRRM is up to something there and he might reappear, it's just odd how we never saw a corpse even though we saw the fat Septon's corpse recovered and abused Lollys recovered among the other living and dead casualties. I think GRRM wants us to at least wonder whether or not he's still alive even if it turns out he isn't" then I agree with you on that point.

And if you answered the second way, what's the difference between Syrio and Tyrek that leads you to strongly believe Syrio is dead but entertain the suspicion that Tyrek is still alive when to me their likelihood of surviving seems fairly equal?

If you think the chances of Tyrek and Syrio living are about the same, i.e., just north of nil, then I can respect that opinion even as I differ in my opinion as to how GRRM writes and sets up his plots, hints, clues, cliffhangers, and blindsides.

But if you have a suspicion or even find it likely that Tyrek might still be out there somewhere, not a conviction mind you but you see the possibility exists, why do you think those who think Syrio might still be out there are so crazy? If it's some sort of apples and oranges comparison between the two, what the hell is the difference that I am missing?

I know some of you who are most staunchly in favor of Dead Syrio have no problem with Live Tyrek; I know Mormont for example considers Live Tyrek likely and I suspect plenty of other Dead Syrio partisans do as well. I'm honestly interested in why you think so, knowing what you do about how GRRM operates.

[Lord O' Bones]

And if you answered the second way, what's the difference between Syrio and Tyrek that leads you to strongly believe Syrio is dead but entertain the suspicion that Tyrek is still alive when to me their likelihood of surviving seems fairly equal?

Becuase Syrio as a character has fulfilled his purpose as an important influence in Arya's life, and if anything, lives on through her. Whereas Tyrek's only purpose so far was to be a tragic character that no one (reader-wise) really cares about and ultimately doesn't mean anything unless ???

[Errant Bard]

Are you equally convinced Tyrek Lannister is dead? Surviving a full blown "kill the nobles" riot of the type we saw is pretty unlikely if you get separated from the group and disappear into the crowd, and surviving a full blown riot and remaining hidden from his family and society at large since then is even more unlikely, especially when you consider Tyrek unlike Syrio had no reason to want to disappear, yet still no one with reason to know has confirmed him dead based on personal knowledge.

Faulty premise right here, we had one noble survive the riot already. Also no matter what Tyrek was totally in the hands of those who prevented him to go back, he didn't decide to do as if he was kidnapped but as soon as he was off-camera to break some FM-fu and escape for somewhere else, it just happens that with Trant "totally in the hands of" means dead.

There's no inconsistency between saying a man overpowered by a knight who said he was going to kill him is dead and saying that a boy overpowered by a crowd we don't really know the composition or everyone's intent, that we saw kill guards but let Lollys live, is perhaps not dead.

[Angalin]

Tyrek could go either way for me. If he died and his body was never found, well, that happens. If some minion instructed by Littlefinger or Varys absconded with him, that's not impossible either. Unlike Syrio, Tyrek does have a role he could fulfill, namely that of heir to Casterly Rock after everyone else has died or, in Lancel's case, effectively removed himself from the succession. This is what I mean about payoffs: Tyrek's reappearance would affect one of the great lordships of Westeros. Syrio would have no such impact on the storyline.

Or what Bones said, I guess. :)

[Jon Targaryen]

And if you answered the second way, what's the difference between Syrio and Tyrek that leads you to strongly believe Syrio is dead but entertain the suspicion that Tyrek is still alive when to me their likelihood of surviving seems fairly equal?

...

But if you have a suspicion or even find it likely that Tyrek might still be out there somewhere, not a conviction mind you but you see the possibility exists, why do you think those who think Syrio might still be out there are so crazy? If it's some sort of apples and oranges comparison between the two, what the hell is the difference that I am missing?

I do not think it is definite that Syrio is dead, only highly likely. I would agree with your analysis here were it not for Ran and Linda's effort and George's willingness to have an archive of fan e-mails, con reports, and interviews available on the web.

The SSM has this to say on Tyrek:

2. Was "file Tyrek" closed in ASOS with the hint that he ended in a bowl of stew?

Maybe he did. Maybe he didn't.

A clear opening that Tyrek might be alive, imo.

The SSM has this to say on Syrio:

Someone asked if Syrio was dead. And he said to "draw your own conclusions" based on the fact that his sword was broken, etc, which I took to mean yes.

This is only one fan's opinion and it would nice to ask the reporter what the exact words were, meaning the "etc", if he or she remembers. However, I think it more likely points to Syrio's death.

So that is the "difference" for me.

[The hairy bear]

To compare Syrio and Tyrek's situation is cheating. The key difference is the reaction of the other characters within the books.

Tyrek disappears off the scenes during a riot. Everyone in the court lost track of him and afterwards he was found missing. Everyone acknowledged he was lost. The actively looked for him. At this point, both the readers and the royal family has the same information: he could be either dead or alive (though every chapter/month without hearing about him makes his demise more likely).

Syrio was left in a nearly impossible situation. The logical outcome was for him to die. If he had survived it would have been an extraordinary event. A fencing master's death among hundred of Stark's servants would have not been noticed by anyone. An unarmed, outnumbered, being able to defeat a knight of the kingsguard and some Lannister guards would have been something we would have heard about.

I hate this topic. :(

[AvengingAryaFan]

Tyrek could go either way for me. If he died and his body was never found, well, that happens. If some minion instructed by Littlefinger or Varys absconded with him, that's not impossible either. Unlike Syrio, Tyrek does have a role he could fulfill, namely that of heir to Casterly Rock after everyone else has died or, in Lancel's case, effectively removed himself from the succession. This is what I mean about payoffs: Tyrek's reappearance would affect one of the great lordships of Westeros. Syrio would have no such impact on the storyline.

Or what Bones said, I guess. :)

I think it's very good to consider whether or not Syrio's story is over. Like everything else about Syrio, though, there is more than one reasonable conclusion to be drawn.

As far as Tyrek being the Lannister heir, Illyrio (Tyrion's host in Pentos, Tyrion sample chapter) believes that Tyrion may be able to inherit Casterly Rock. But I suppose that doesn't remove the interest factor of Tyrek contesting the inheritance with Tyrion, who after all committed patricide and was found guilty of regicide.

But Syrio could also be very useful for a future role. He was developed as a wise Yoda-like teacher (though less phlegmatic and more appealing), and though he wasn't around for long, GRRM drew him carefully to be both admirable and memorable. Moreover, he has continued to have a presence in the books as Arya constantly remembers his advice. He's clearly a Stark partisan, and is particularly protective of Arya. He's also a native of Braavos.

The number of chapters devoted to her make it pretty clear that Arya must have an important role to perform. Yet she's stuck in Braavos, bereft of all connection (except Needle) to her family and Westeros. That is an untenable position; she needs to rejoin the main storyline at some point, or else she just doesn't belong in this series. How is she to return to Westeros as Arya Stark, rather than as a selfless FM? The KOM is suspicious of Arya's claim to be "no one," and it doesn't seem likely that he would send her on a mission to Westeros until he was convinced of her complete dedication to the many faced god. But the KOM is very hard to fool.

Consequently, a character in Braavos that knew Arya, and was strongly inclined to assist her, and would represent a reconnection to her life prior to her father's death, would be very useful to facilitate her return to Westeros qua Arya Stark. With Arya busily being "no one" in Braavos, it doesn't seem that she could easily achieve the friendship or loyalty required for such a character. Yet were Syrio alive, and had he returned to Braavos, he would be precisely such a character. Moreover, the tom cat recognition story shows he could recognize her despite the unexpectedness of a street urchin "Cat" in Braavos being Arya Stark. Also, note that it would not be useful for such a character to appear until Arya is well on her way to learning the secrets and skills of the FM ... which she has still not substantially done.

It doesn't seem reasonable to dismiss the usefulness of such a character out of hand, while being perfectly willing to entertain a suspicion that Tyrek, on whom very little character development effort was lavished, is hanging around offstage to reappear later. Like all things about Syrio, this is uncertain: his story could be over, and he'd have been a great character. But he wouldn't be diminished by surviving the fight with Trant - it would be another tribute to his extraordinary skill. Given that he could retain all the character appeal he's already earned, and serve a very useful plot purpose, I don't believe a presumption that "his story is over" is warranted. Particularly since the most likely use for him hasn't yet "matured."

I'm glad to see you back on the thread, Aplomb. The evidence for Syrio being dead is all in that one graphic image of him losing part of his stick to Trant, while he's unarmored and weakly armed - the perilous fight scene. Yet clue after clue suggests that it is unwise to leap to a conclusion that Syrio is therefore dead: the failure to confirm his death despite opportunities to do so (the report to Cersei in the book, the many questions GRRM has sidestepped in life), the examples of success by less armored fighters (Oberyn and Bronn), the evidence of Trant's lack of skill, the evidence of Syrio's extraordinary skill and speed (and yes, the more skilled the guardsmen he quickly dispatched, the greater the evidence of his skill, and the greater the likelihood of his survival), GRRM's penchant for milking the death of good guys (Ned's head in Sansa's face, Robb filled with quarrels before Bolton drove in his sword and twisted it), his habit of making the death of popular characters seem certain and then withdrawing it (Bran/Rickon, Sandor, Brienne/Hunt/Pod), and the improbability of a recently hired retainer being perfectly willing to lay down his life merely to give his charge a chance to avoid a capture that would likely be no more than unpleasant. Unable to answer these hints that one should be chary of leaping to conclusions about an unconfirmed death, the opposition just airily dismisses them as of no consequence. Sigh. The evidence is sufficient for me to maintain my position even if not a single person agreed with me, but it's a relief to have somebody support the same conclusions, using different perspectives and reasoning than I can muster.

[AvengingAryaFan]

An unarmed, outnumbered, being able to defeat a knight of the kingsguard and some Lannister guards would have been something we would have heard about.

WE did hear about it. But would Trant (the only witness) bruit it about?

I hate this topic. :(

Sorry to hear that. I enjoy it.

Boy, all you Charlie Browns out there ... how many times does GRRM have to pull the football away before you realize that it would be smart not to kick at it with such force and confidence? I frankly think it's more likely than not that Syrio is alive, but I'm sure not saying he's definitely alive -- I'm not about to take a full swing at that football, the way you all do without any hesitation.

GRRM says "draw your own conclusions," and you take that to mean there can be only one alternative, and you know which one it is? Wow. I know Ran is convinced by "the way GRRM said it." And Ran is smart and knowledgeable. But if GRRM wanted to mislead him without lying to him, Ran's assumption that GRRM wouldn't mislead him would make it very easy to do. And if GRRM wants to keep something as a surprise, he should avoid revealing it to anyone, even Ran.

Doesn't Syrio advise "always do the unexpected?" What would happen if an unarmed man who had just been swung at but not hit by a sword took that opportunity to get inside sword range and wrestle with a knight? If there's nobody around to help the knight, he might not be in any danger of death, but ... how would he kill his assailant?

I think it's terrific that George has so many of you convinced that Syrio can't be alive. It will make his reappearance so satisfying!

[Guest Ontology Interface Layer]

What would happen if an unarmed man who had just been swung at but not hit by a sword took that opportunity to get inside sword range and wrestle with a knight? If there's nobody around to help the knight, he might not be in any danger of death, but ... how would he kill his assailant?

With his his sword. You see, unlike spears, swords have a sharpened edge down to within a few inches of the grip. So "inside the range" doesn't really mean much, the person with the sword could probably still cut their opponent (especially if unarmoured) even if they didn't have the ability to get the momentum from a swing. And they would often have a dagger on their other hip, as a secondary weapon, as Dunk used to dispatch Lucas Inchfield.

And beyond that? A mailed fist against an unprotected face is an ugly prospect, as the Red Viper found out. The mere threat of it was enough to make Prince Aerion yield to Dunk. Or how about a head butt to the face with a helmet on? Getting one's teeth knocked out and nose smashed is bound to take some of the fight out of someone, which can then lead to the opportunity to retrieve a fallen weapon and stick them with the pointy end.

Seems a little strange to think of a fencer brawling like that, though.

[Errant Bard]

He was developed as a wise Yoda-like teacher (though less phlegmatic and more appealing)

Yoda died and didn't come back except in sorta flashbacks.

He's clearly a Stark partisan, and is particularly protective of Arya. He's also a native of Braavos.

He's clearly protecting his charge, I don't see the Stark partisanship. He's native of Braavos and he left it.

Yet she's stuck in Braavos, bereft of all connection (except Needle) to her family and Westeros. That is an untenable position; she needs to rejoin the main storyline at some point, or else she just doesn't belong in this series. How is she to return to Westeros as Arya Stark, rather than as a selfless FM? The KOM is suspicious of Arya's claim to be "no one," and it doesn't seem likely that he would send her on a mission to Westeros until he was convinced of her complete dedication to the many faced god. But the KOM is very hard to fool.

Speculation 1: Arya must regain her previous identity before anything happens.

Speculation 2: To regain her identity (or do anything), she needs specific outside help.

Speculation 3: Outside help can only be someone from her past

Speculation 4: A man who just fled Westeros without caring at all for her (the "I buy you three seconds and I'm out there" thing) will somehow find her and persuade her to go there. (Syrio is firmly in the "Do as I say, don't do as I do" camp)

Speculation 5: Syrio is the only guy who can come and fulfil such a role.

They are all baseless, and speculations built on speculations built on speculations built on nothing don't make a solid argument.

the failure to confirm his death despite opportunities to do so

Which means nothing, as he's vague like that for everything he has laid enough clues in the book, including, for example, Joffrey's killer and who sent the knife for Bran.

the examples of success by less armored fighters (Oberyn and Bronn)

Bronn has a buckler, a mail shirt, and a sword. His opponent has an ornamental sword he's not used to.

Oberyn dies, despite having a poisoned spear, space, and an heavy, not very mobile opponent.

the evidence of Trant's lack of skill

No such evidence present. Actually, Trant severs the Ãœbermaster's sword in two, at one point.

the evidence of Syrio's extraordinary skill and speed (and yes, the more skilled the guardsmen he quickly dispatched, the greater the evidence of his skill, and the greater the likelihood of his survival)

Which noone contests, but skill cannot make wood pierce armour, or erase the fact that it was unsufficient to dodge everything, as he had to parry and got his stick severed in the process.

GRRM's penchant for milking the death of good guys (Ned's head in Sansa's face, Robb filled with quarrels before Bolton drove in his sword and twisted it)

They are called main characters. He sure milked Jory Cassel's death, or Raynald Westerling, or Will... Wait, he did not.

his habit of making the death of popular characters seem certain and then withdrawing it (Bran/Rickon, Sandor, Brienne/Hunt/Pod)

And showing them living a few chapters after. How many books has it been for Syrio, exactly?

Anyway, different circumstances and execution:

for Bran and Rickon, we are shown firsthand that Theon doesn't find them, and Bran is a bloody PoV, with prophecy hanging on him and all that, of course he didn't die.

For Sandor, his situation was way less desperate, he was feverish, not seconds from a sword to the guts, and he had outside help anyway. As far as I know, there are no theories about outside help for Syrio (would need a dynamic entry, too)

For Brienne & co, they are not implied dead, they just are in a sticky situation that they can or cannot get out still. You might as well dig up all the cliffhangers in the book if you want to make false comparisons like that.

the improbability of a recently hired retainer being perfectly willing to lay down his life merely to give his charge a chance to avoid a capture that would likely be no more than unpleasant.

He didn't hand Arya to the Lannisters, he fought. And I'm sure Oberyn was not willing to lay down his life in that duel, too.

[mormont]

Are you equally convinced Tyrek Lannister is dead?

Obviously not. I consider it possible that Tyrek is alive. (But by no means certain.)

And if you answered the second way, what's the difference between Syrio and Tyrek that leads you to strongly believe Syrio is dead but entertain the suspicion that Tyrek is still alive when to me their likelihood of surviving seems fairly equal?

It's only equal if you carefully frame the question to make it appear so.

In the case of Tyrek, we are talking about a very minor character - and yet one that does, actually, provide a useful contrast with Syrio. Because there is much more evidence for this very minor character being alive than there is for Syrio. Tyrek's fate is mentioned more than once in the books since his disappearance (in contrast to Syrio), in ways that make it explicitly clear that his fate is unknown to the characters (again in contrast to Syrio, where at best it can be inferred from what is not explicitly said), and in ways that make it clear from the text alone that the author is deliberately keeping the issue alive in the reader's mind. Possibly as a red herring, admittedly, but if there was for Syrio even one reference as strong and clear as Jaime's discussion of Tyrek's fate, I would be willing to believe he might be alive.

But there isn't. Simple as that.

Consequently, a character in Braavos that knew Arya, and was strongly inclined to assist her, and would represent a reconnection to her life prior to her father's death, would be very useful to facilitate her return to Westeros qua Arya Stark. With Arya busily being "no one" in Braavos, it doesn't seem that she could easily achieve the friendship or loyalty required for such a character. Yet were Syrio alive, and had he returned to Braavos, he would be precisely such a character.

I think you vastly overestimate the usefulness of Syrio as a plot tool here. The amount of setup required to bring Syrio back into the story, explain his survival, and then create a plotline by which he crops up in Braavos with some reason for Arya to return to Westeros seems scarcely less than the amount to create another, completely un-Syrio related reason for her to return. Again, this is reasoning backwards from the conclusion: it's only useful as a way of justifying the belief that Syrio survived, not as proof that he actually did.

[A wilding]

Tyrek's fate is mentioned more than once in the books since his disappearance (in contrast to Syrio), in ways that make it explicitly clear that his fate is unknown to the characters (again in contrast to Syrio, where at best it can be inferred from what is not explicitly said), and in ways that make it clear from the text alone that the author is deliberately keeping the issue alive in the reader's mind. Possibly as a red herring, admittedly, but if there was for Syrio even one reference as strong and clear as Jaime's discussion of Tyrek's fate, I would be willing to believe he might be alive.

This is the key difference for me, and why I would not be surprised if Tyrek resurfaced at some point. In sharp contrast to Syrio, we get scenes with characters wondering what happened to Tyrek and whether he is still alive in ACoK, in ASoS and in AFfC.