Syrio Forel =/= Jaquen

[Serc]

Syrio got brought up in a place where people had duels over arguing which woman was more beautiful. On top of that he was the First Sword of Braavos, and Trant insulted him. 3 good reasons why not to run.

Forgive me, but isn't the point that Syrio left Bravos? Perhaps he rejected some stupid traditions. And because he was starting the fight to give Arya time to escape, after she was gone, why woulld he stay and not run?

A stick against steel. Go get a stick and pound it against steel for 24 hours. Tell me the results. Also try bending down to pick up a weapon without being vulnerable from someone whos already striking at you.

As I mentioned, he can move faster. Perhaps he dances away, lets Trant come, doubles around, picks up a weapon while he has the lead from being faster at running.

Already proven that less than a minute into the fight that he had to parry with his weapon to deflect the blow, proving that even if he can indeed move faster that he's not going to dodge every blow. Next time he needs to parry he wont be able to, which should result in Trant making contact.

Or perhaps by that time Trant will be too tired from lifting his sword and from being in full plate.. that stuff is kinda heavy. Maybe he got a lucky stroke in on the one that broke Syrio's wooden sword.

Leaves him open to finish

Unless hes too far away due to his increased speed advantage.

Yes, I'm sure a member of the kingsguard is going to walk away against an unarmored and unweaponed opponent. I'm sure he'll swallow his pride when he knows he cannot be touched.

Perhaps he grows too tired, knows his real target is Arya, and leagves to go find her? Perhaps he is growing too tired to not let Syrio jam a sword in his visor.

Because he's done it with every other character? The Hound? Benjen? Tyrek? All characters missing or assumed dead. Aside from Syrio of course.

Ah, the 'traditional' argument. Just because someone does something multiple times does NOT mean he will do it every time.

[Lord O' Bones]

I admit amongst all of the lunacy, this thread reminds of a time when Lightsnake and Artanaro used to do this sort of thing everyday. Good times.

The sad thing though, is that since Syrio is dead, GRRM will never have a reason to emphatically show his rotting corpse. And when he never shows up again, because he's fucking dead, the mad speculation will continue unto eternity. Maybe that's not sad. Maybe that's just amusing.

[Serc]

I find it amusing :D

Maybe Syrio is a hidden character for GRRm to come and say "SUPRISE!" with... who knows? I don't know what GRRM is thinking, and he has since NEVER said "Syrio is dead." He left it ambiguous.

[Shemy]

Forgive me, but isn't the point that Syrio left Bravos? Perhaps he rejected some stupid traditions. And because he was starting the fight to give Arya time to escape, after she was gone, why woulld he stay and not run?

Considering he smacks one of the guards for insulting him and says " You will be treating me with some respect, " I severly doubt it.

He left Braavos retired, and to make some coin teaching a foreign style.

Why stay and not run? he could not have run unless he incapacitated Trant. Which he was in no position to do. Sure he could run faster than Trant, but Trant can also call guards.

As I mentioned, he can move faster. Perhaps he dances away, lets Trant come, doubles around, picks up a weapon while he has the lead from being faster at running.

This is not a movie fight. You could tell by the way the Book was potraying it that Trant was going at Syrio heavy. Syrio is barely finding time to avoid the next strike. How he manages to get free of that and time out is impossible.

Or perhaps by that time Trant will be too tired from lifting his sword and from being in full plate.. that stuff is kinda heavy. Maybe he got a lucky stroke in on the one that broke Syrio's wooden sword.

"Maybe he got a lucky stroke. " Now see this is what I'm talking about.

Maybe the sun gleamed in Trants eyes and his armor fell off and Syrio kicked him in the balls and left? We are not talking about chancy things, we are talking what logically happened.

Ah, the 'traditional' argument. Just because someone does something multiple times does NOT mean he will do it every time.

If you ignore the whole logic to it, I suppose it could work. Hes done this with every character so the intelligent readers can question and pick up on it. This is a bit different from a character suddenly re-emerging from 5 books ago with a big " SUPRISE! BET YOU DIDNT SEE THIS! HAHAHA."

If Syrio had survived, Martin would have left us clues. Even uncat was left clues by Nymeria taking her out the river, ungregor with Q something experimenting, the hound with the priest, EVERY character that has been brought back so far has been explained before it happened.

Why should Syrio be any different? Just because it suits your debate?

[Guest Ontology Interface Layer]

As I mentioned, he can move faster. Perhaps he dances away, lets Trant come, doubles around, picks up a weapon while he has the lead from being faster at running.

Tell me is he running so fast backward, so he can try to parry any blows with his stick stump? Or has he turned his back to run away, leaving himself wide open to being chopped in half?

Or perhaps by that time Trant will be too tired from lifting his sword and from being in full plate.. that stuff is kinda heavy. Maybe he got a lucky stroke in on the one that broke Syrio's wooden sword.

And yet men would fight with swords in such full plate for hours in battle, train in it every day (especially if their job requires it, as a KG's job does). Moreover have you ever worn full plate? It's actually less tiring than chainmail, since the weight distribution is much better. Iirc, Mormont related his experience with wearing plate, and it wasn't significantly different than not wearing it.

On a general note I pointed out that House Trant's words and blazon are indicative of a tradition of being merciless toward their enemies. On the same note, it's worth noting that not only does the Titan of Braavos hold a broken sword aloft, but a broken sword was also the emblem of the Second Sons mercenary company who were lead by Mero of Braavos. Thus, the broken sword itself seems to be a symbol of Braavos. What could that indicate? I interpret it as continuing defiance even in the face of defeat. That Braavosi feel a determination to keep fighting to the bitter end, because they don't give up, and they don't run away.

[Angalin]

<mod gloves>

Less snark, please, and lose the personal attacks.

</mod gloves>

[Shemy]

<mod gloves>

Less snark, please, and lose the personal attacks.

</mod gloves>

I think you scared everyone away.

[mormont]

- Syrio had no armor.

And this allows him to move faster for better dodging.

I really can't emphasis enough how much people seem to exaggerate this in their own minds.

Full plate, I admit I have not fought in. But I've fought in a coat of plates plus padding plus a helmet, and I've fought in mail, and I've fought unarmoured. The contrast between fighting armoured and unarmoured in terms of speed and how it affects dodging blows is, well, not very much at all actually. Marginal at best. Syrio's advantage in speed does not come from his lack of armour, it comes from being naturally faster.

Nor is fighting in armour really all that much more fatiguing than fighting unarmoured, unless you've been fighting for some time. The thing that really tires you out is constant movement: coincidentally what Syrio would have to do in fighting Trant.

- Trant was fully armoured in steel and mail underneath iirc.

Hence moving slower, and his helm obscured his vision.

I'll give you the helm thing. They're bad for that. As I said, Trant is slower because he's slower: the armour would have a marginal effect.

The thing to remember about full plate armour is that people would not wear it if it was a significant disadvantage: if it exhausted you in minutes, made you slow and unwieldy, made it hard to hit opponents, etc. Naturally enough it does none of these things. Rather, it was and is a massive advantage in a fight with unarmoured opponents - certainly enough to more than counter superior skill and speed.

In any case, hypothetical I-can-imagine-this-happening scenarios are not really a very good argument. I can imagine scenarios where Ned is alive, or where Littlefinger is a woman in disguise, or where Hot Pie is the Prince Who Was Promised. There's no actual reason to believe any of them, though. I've read through a few threads on the question of Syrio being alive, here and on other boards: but I'm afraid I have never seen anyone offer an actual reason to believe Syrio is alive. Just a few fairly imaginative hypotheticals about how he could have survived the fight and a (sometimes strenuous) insistence that there's no conclusive proof he's dead. That's not enough, I'm afraid.

[AvengingAryaFan]

How is the hilt going to hit him any harder than the whole wooden sword which was heavier and longer? It isn't.

Congratulations on successfully memorising what colour cloak the guardsmen wore, btw. It's understandable how one would want to celebrate such an achievement, but don't just rest on your laurels..learn that a wooden sword isn't going to be able to deliver more force after it's been shortened no matter which end you use.

The nature of the impact is different. If a wooden sword is swung at a helmet, there is a certain amount of momentum: the rotational momentum of the sword (rotational inertia times angular velocity). However, only part of that momentum will be transferred to the target helmet. First, depending on where along the sword the helmet is hit, a large part of the momentum may be transferred into the point from which it is being swung - the kick, if the tip hits the target. The most effective point of contact is at the center of rotational inertia - the "sweet spot", about 2/3 of the way from the pivot point to the tip for a uniform density rod (which a sword isn't, but you get the idea).

But hitting at the "sweet spot" is only part of the problem. The larger problem is that a wooden sword is more flexible than a steel sword; so the sword will bend, and much of the momentum will be spread out in time, like being hit by a spring rather than by a solid object such as a hammer. If hit too hard, the wood would simply break, absorbing most of the energy. If the hit was along the "sharp" edge of the wooden sword, there'd be less flexing, but the wood would absorb energy by crushing at the point of impact. So even with a full length wooden sword it would be difficult to create a sufficiently sharp impact.

The momentum of a sword hitting end-on is the product of the mass of the sword times the relative velocity between the sword and the target. This may well be less than could be created by a rapidly swung sword. However, because wood isn't very compressible, the impact isn't like a spring, but like a hammer - the entire momentum of the sword is transferred to the target. Flexing and crushing wouldn't reduce the impact. Of course, the helmet (or hand, if Syrio targeted Trant's sword hand) might absorb part of the blow by deforming, but this is true for both a swung sword and a sword that hits end-on.

Especially because of the lead weighting in the sword, it could serve the same purpose as brass knuckles - something hard and heavy to make a punch much more effective.

If Syrio knocked Trant senseless, I think he'd have killed him to avoid having a witness to his killing of five guards (reversing an earlier contention). Therefore, it seems more likely that he disarmed Trant. He could have done this by going inside and wrestling the sword from him, or hitting his sword hand sufficiently hard end-on with his wooden sword. (Sword hilts have some hand guarding, but it is designed to be able to catch a sword cut, not to cover the entire hand.) Or he might not have gone inside at all, but ducked away from Trant's return swing, and picked up a red cloak's sword, with which it wouldn't be all that surprising if he could disarm Trant.

If Trant is disarmed, his armor would still make him difficult to kill, even if Syrio had a guardsman's sword. However, at that point Trant would probably run for reinforcements. It would be very satisfying if Trant, rather than Syrio, ran.

It's interesting that Trant's report not only failed to mention that he killed Syrio, but also failed to mention that Syrio killed five guardsmen. I'm sure Trant would like to avoid reporting the fact if he lost to a man armed with a wooden stick. I suppose it would also look pretty bad to have to report losing five men in a failed effort to capture a 9 year-old girl.

[AvengingAryaFan]

Why would Trant beat a retreat at all, in any way, for any reason, when there are half a dozen swords lying around?

Because he wouldn't be able to get far enough away from the much faster Syrio to pick one up safely.

[A wilding]

It's interesting that Trant's report not only failed to mention that he killed Syrio, but also failed to mention that Syrio killed five guardsmen.

I have already pointed to you, and on this thread, that you are making this up. We don't know what Trant told Cersei.

Edit: fix link.

[Errant Bard]

It's interesting that Trant's report not only failed to mention that he killed Syrio, but also failed to mention that Syrio killed five guardsmen.

We don't see Trant's report.

[Errant Bard]

Because he wouldn't be able to get far enough away from the much faster Syrio to pick one up safely.

He's in full plate.

[AvengingAryaFan]

No, it seems to involve some people that start off as being from the Stark family, and be about what happens in Westeros during this time of chaos. The "main storyline" is currently carried by Snows, Stones, Lannisters, Baratheons, Martells and many others, and I don't understand that you have to be called something special to be admitted in. It's even more boggling when we know that the FM themselves are actors. That you can only imagine her saying "screw that I'm a Stark", hop in the the nearest galley with her long lost teacher and then... do something (but with Syrio this time, can't have the girl do stuff by herself) is no argument.

I agree with your implicit (and, elsewhere, explicit) distaste for the idea that Arya needs a guide to accompany her. And, because it would make her more interesting, I think that if GRRM has an agent get Arya headed back to Westeros, he'd either have the agent NOT accompany her, or accompany her only a short way. I think Arya needs a pack of which she's the leader, not a protective parent figure.

Yeah, doesn't really impress that without a spear a lightly armored guy is dead meat in one punch. Coincidentally, and I notice you forget to bring it up, Syrio has no poisoned spear.

Yes, and Trant is vastly inferior to Gregor, so the differences roughly balance. Cersei (and everybody else except Oberyn) thought she had an unbeatable champion in Gregor - that nobody could stand against him. Thus, that fight is still good evidence that maneuverability and speed count for a lot against a heavily armored knight, in a one-on-one fight.

[Errant Bard]

Yes, and Trant is vastly inferior to Gregor, so the differences roughly balance.

Trant is vastly superior to Gregor. Prove me wrong.

[AvengingAryaFan]

To bring Syrio out of a near death situation, which has a probability rate of like less than 1% survival, yes Martin COULD do it if he so wished. But is he going to? Given the fact that we see Martin is a different sort of fantasy writer, who is NOT afraid to kill off characters, and likes to keep his own world very much in the same way our world does in a very realistic way and outcomes are very realistic too - it is very very unlikely.

Given this plus the overwhelming evidence that Syrio could NOT survive, and that Martin has NOT left clues or any trace whatsoever that Syrio survived - the chances of Syrio popping up are less than 1%.

Agreed about Martin's ability to kill well-loved characters. Disagree with the 1% figure - I give it 65%, based partly on the fact that I think Syrio is not stupid, so he very likely believed he could survive an encounter with Trant plus five guardsmen, because that's what he walked calmly into. I don't buy the idea that he was bent on self-destruction just to give Arya a few seconds head start. If you want to talk about "unrealistic" THAT's unrealistic. Moreover, I strongly disagree with your assertion that there's "overwhelming evidence" for Syrio dying. We didn't see him hurt at all. He was still on his feet, and he's very fast. Far from overwhelming evidence, you have merely a perilous situation.

So where, pray, do you draw your conclusions that he survived? Your debate lies 100% on the fact that he could have survived the fight against Trant.

I've laid out summaries of my reasons several times in the posts above. If I knew how to put a hyperlink here, I'd connect you to several of them. The details of the new arguments are present as well; the details of the old points have been listed in previous threads on this subject.

I completely agree that my debate [re]lies 100% on the fact [thanks for the acknowledgment] that he could have survived the fight against Trant. I'm not trying to prove that he survived - that's obviously an impossible task. Obviously he could have been killed. I'm trying to prove that there's a great deal of reason to believe that he could have survived, including evidence from other reasonably comparable (NOT identical) situations elsewhere in the books; evidence that Martin can not only kill characters, but also let them survive against what appear to be high odds; a plausible future role for Syrio that would, in fact, explain why Martin chose a Braavosi water dancer to train Arya, rather than a more readily available conventional Westerosi trainer.

I'm thoroughly mystified by your claims that I don't point to any clues that Martin has left "to even remotely consider this [theory]." Do you read my posts? It's not that I'm offended if you don't, but just that it's rather useless for me to respond to you if, as appears, you simply fail to grasp anything I've said. And I don't mind if you disagree, but please, disagree with what I've said, don't just assert that I haven't said anything. Clues I've pointed to:

1. less burdened/more lightly armored fighters winning one-on-one fights with fully armored knights: Bronn/Egen, and Oberyn/Gregor. In fact, I don't actually know offhand of any textual examples of the more heavily armored knight prevailing against a more skilled, but less armored, opponent.

2. Syrio's extraordinary skill: his position as First Sword of Braavos, plus his dispatching of five Lannister guardsmen with only a wooden stick. I think that puts him pretty clearly in the league of Barristan Selmy as a truly extraordinary fighter.

3. Trant's mediocre skill: Barristan's contempt for him as discussed above, and I believe there's other textual evidence supporting this conclusion. I don't think anybody has claimed that Trant is particularly talented.

4. The fact that Syrio is still unharmed when we last see him.

5. The fact that water dancers tend to rely on speed rather than on armor and brute force to win fights.

6. The fact that Trant appears to be rather slow, and is encumbered with full armor - the fact that Martin has expressly demonstrated with Oberyn versus Gregor that speed and maneuverability due to light armoring can be very telling against a heavily armored opponent, even one as monstrous and vicious as Gregor. Or can at least keep a fighter alive; the poison was slow acting, so Oberyn needed to stay alive for a long time to let the poison start slowing Gregor down.

6. The availability of weapons for Syrio to pick up.

7. Plausible surprise future role for Syrio that solves a problem with the Arya storyline.

8. The fact that Syrio willingly took on five guardsmen plus Trant to give Arya time to get away. Unless he's stupid - and there's abundant evidence that he's not - it would be crazy for him to sacrifice his life to give Arya a few seconds head start, when all he MIGHT be saving her from is a capture that almost certainly would NOT have been fatal to Arya. This is actually a very strong piece of evidence that hasn't been given enough play. A bunch of people think it was just too cool that Syrio was letting himself be killed for Arya, as if that made him more admirable, when it would just have made him stupid.

9. The fact that GRRM is extraordinarily patient in continuing to evade questions about Syrio rather than just giving them a definitive answer to lay them to rest.

So while OF COURSE I can't prove Syrio is alive, and while he may indeed be dead, it's entirely unreasonable for you to say that I present no clues to make people "even remotely consider" this theory. A theory of a reasonable possibility, mind you, NOT a theory of a certainty. I'm no Charlie Brown to take an unreserved, unguarded swing at a football held out by GRRM, I mean Lucy. Y'all go ahead.

Your whole debate that Syrio might have lived, would have merit, If martin followed it up and had the readers questioning wether he was dead. But he has not done this, and rather, went the other way and made the only character that knew Syrio consider him dead, and has never second guessed if he survived. Nor has he left any clues to consider that Syrio walked away.

You were almost getting reasonable, and then you suddenly drew a conclusion that is wholly at odds with the very existence - and constant resurgence - of this very thread. Many people have observed a significant number of clues that they believe suggest Syrio could well be alive. Many others, like you, Mormont and OIL, consider the clues to be entirely unconvincing. But the clues are there, nonetheless, whether you find them convincing or not. But remember, Parris has stated that "George doesn't do obvious." If it was so obvious that everybody saw the likelihood of Syrio returning, George would probably feel he hadn't done a very good job of it.

But Syrio DID say he would not flee, and Trant is completely fine, and Trant did also mention to the Queen he had lost Arya because he had to take care of her dancing master.

But Syrio also demonstrated lying for strategic advantage. Moreover, even though Trant's armor protected him from actual injury, I've proposed reasonably plausible scenarios whereby Syrio disarms Trant and it is Trant that runs, not Syrio. But even barring Syrio "winning" and making Trant run, Syrio still may have "danced" away from Trant, wearing him out, and walked away. Syrio's ability to survive a "dance" with Trant would be greatly aided by Syrio's lack of armor burden, plus the presence of obstacles (down guardsmen) around the room that would impede Trant's already inferior mobility.

Now, if this was a court case, and the jury were to decide the outcome of what happened, by logic, what do you think the unanymous decision would be?

I'm quite certain that if the jury was halfway intelligent, there'd be a hung jury. It isn't possible to come to a conclusion "beyond a reasonable doubt" in either direction. Even if the standard was merely "preponderance of the evidence," I believe a reasonable jury would refuse to draw a conclusion one way or the other.

His fighting style gave him leverage. He was weightless and had a much much longer reach than Clegane had, so he could keep his distance with the spear. Which is why he could doge Cleganes attacks much easier.

Syrio has NO weapon and at such a short range blows are going to be coming more faster and rapid, and has no way to effectively harm Trant. Even if he did we already seen that Trant was completely fine afterwards. and we've already seen that Syrio had lost his only weapon and needed to parry.

Syrio's fighting style also gave him leverage; he tended to rely on speed rather than armor. Syrio had, when last we saw him, a weapon that had just been reduced to relative ineffectiveness; but Oberyn had lost his weapon too, and had managed to recover it. Syrio couldn't recover his stick, which was cut off, but he could have acquired one of five swords lying around the room. Syrio can dodge away; Trant, remember, is much slower.

You are not looking at the actual fighting styles here and looking it from a realistic point of view, this is supposed to be based on real life fighting, and also this fantasy book has a realistic take on things, so given the nature of both the chances of Martin even contemplating Syrio surviving when much more important and better characters have died is virtually nonexistant.

To the contrary, I'm looking at it much more realistically than you are. You're impressed by Syrio's temporary peril, and maybe Trant killed him then. But I'm basing my judgment on the judgment of a man whose opinion I respect: Syrio's. Syrio apparently believed he could survive against Trant plus five guardsmen. He's narrowed it down to only Trant before we left the scene. I see no reason why Syrio should be mistaken in this judgment - after all, his life literally depended on it. You all act as though he just threw his life away, and then claim you're being "realistic." You realistically think somebody would throw their life away mere to prevent a non-fatal capture of a child that had been a student for a couple of months? If so, you have a very odd conception of realism. I suppose you know lots of suicidal people, though, unlike me, so in your experience, people just throw their lives away over trifles. Well, Arya getting captured isn't a trifle, but it's almost certainly not fatal, either ... and letting her get away is no guarantee that she'll survive, anyway. So what he's giving her is just way too little to warrant wading into a situation he thought was more likely than not to be fatal to himself.

[AvengingAryaFan]

AvengingAryaFan, just want to say I really, really enjoy your posts in this thread. (And, I agree with you!) You're articulate, reasoned and refuse to rise to the sneering and baiting of the Syrio-is-dead faction, so, good for you! Keep on keeping on...

Thanks very kindly - that'll help me withstand the unrelenting barrage of the "Syrio must be dead" proponents.

[AvengingAryaFan]

If you can't, please admit that while I am sure you sincerely and strongly think that Syrio is dead, you are pulling such likelihoods out of the ether to the point that you are willing to assign them percentages means you are pulling them completely out of your own ass.

Erm - mine might be closer to the truth, but they come from the same dark orifice. The numbers are just to give a sense of where we think the probabilities lie; they can't be fairly quantitative, because we have nothing quantitative to base them on.

[mormont]

(complicated explanation)

No offence, but this is (from my point of view) just a lengthy attempt to stand up a pretty out-there claim with no basis in actual experience. You could have saved yourself all that typing, because it doesn't succeed.

The hilt is not more likely than the blade to knock someone out. The impact of the striking part of the blade is much more than a blow with the hilt. Any claim to the contrary will get you some funny looks from anyone who's ever swung a sword.

If Syrio knocked Trant senseless, I think he'd have killed him to avoid having a witness to his killing of five guards (reversing an earlier contention). Therefore, it seems more likely that he disarmed Trant. He could have done this by going inside and wrestling the sword from him, or hitting his sword hand sufficiently hard end-on with his wooden sword. (Sword hilts have some hand guarding, but it is designed to be able to catch a sword cut, not to cover the entire hand.)

Depends on the sword, actually, but for the type of sword Trant was using you are correct. There is no basket protecting the fingers, as there is in later-period blades: but this is largely because armour of the type Trant is wearing includes lobstered steel gauntlets that provide far superior protection. There are references to such gauntlets being worn by knights all over the books, for good reason: your hand, after all, is almost always in harm's way. It makes sense to armour it.

Maybe Syrio could have wrestled the sword away, but the chances he disarmed Trant by hitting him on the hand are slim to none.

If Trant is disarmed, his armor would still make him difficult to kill, even if Syrio had a guardsman's sword.

Not particularly.

It's ironic that you miss the one genuine vulnerability of plate armour, which is that once you are rendered hors de combat it is actually relatively straightforward to kill you. A thrust in the armpit or groin, and that's that.

But we are discussing hypothetical events, of course.

[AvengingAryaFan]

I have already pointed to you, and on this thread, that you are making this up. We don't know what Trant told Cersei.

Edit: fix link.

How do you do those links?

This is a very minor point. Sorry, I need to reread that part - do you have the page? I hate trying to find stuff in these books, with no contents, no markers.

Anyway, you say that Cersei states "the wretched dancing master interfered." That's a pretty light, casual statement. I think that a dancing master that she knew had killed five guardsmen with a wooden stick would have received a bit more respect. No proof of this minor point, but her light tone fairly conveys an implication is that she wasn't aware of Syrio having killed five guardsmen, and she wasn't told that Syrio was killed. She's an evil bitch, but she's not quite inhuman. Not quite.

We don't see Trant's report.

Sorry, A wilding beat you to it.

<mod gloves>

Less snark, please, and lose the personal attacks.

</mod gloves>

Hear, hear! Something we can agree on.