World Cup 2010 - Prelude to South Africa

[Horza]

You've got to feel sorry for North Korea though -- they somehow make it to the tournament (I think they're the lowest-ranked of all teams) and then get placed into the Group of Death. I wonder what the odds are on them making it to the round of 16.

NK were never going to get out of any group, weak or strong and they'll go at Brazil, CIV etc with the same intensity they would against Slovakia or Mexico. The teams facing them have to ensure they don't take them lightly because they can grind out a 0-0 or 1-1, fatal in a GoD, but NK will do really well to bow out of this group with a point to its name.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

You've got to feel sorry for North Korea though -- they somehow make it to the tournament (I think they're the lowest-ranked of all teams) and then get placed into the Group of Death. I wonder what the odds are on them making it to the round of 16.

New Zealand is IIRC the lowest ranked, then NK.

[Horza]

New Zealand is IIRC the lowest ranked, then NK.

As of November it's NZ 77 NK 84 according to the ever-reliable FIFA rankings. South Africa are the lowest ranked of all at 86.

Being relative football noobs thanks to the Oceania Backwater Effect, New Zealand are probably going to be easier to beat than North Korea but both are by far the gimmes of the comp.

[TheEvilKing]

Cool draw. England should be pretty comfortable. Australia have a really tough group and will have to be on top form to qualify. New Zealand are fucked.

Predictions:

1. Mexico

2. S. Africa

3. France

4. Uruguay

Mexico are looking good. S Africa will qualify being hosts, as France are very weak right now.

1. Nigeria

2. Argentina

3. Greece

4. S. Korea

A tougher group than it looks. If Greece are good enough, and the Argies are bad enough, Greece could sneak through. Although I think Argentina's players are too good to fail at this stage, despite Maradona's crap managerial skills.

1. England

2. USA

3. Slovenia

4. Algeria

The top two spots look locked in, with Slovenia and Algeria playing off for 3rd spot. England v USA will be fun though - especially if England win :)

1. Germany

2. Ghana

3. Australia

4. Serbia

Germany are looking solid, Ghana should be too good for the Aussies, although I think this group will be very tight. If Aus can manage a draw against Germany or Ghana and a win against Serbia, they should grab 2nd spot.

1. Holland

2. Cameroon

3. Denmark

4. Japan

There'll be a tough fight for 2nd spot but I'm expecting African teams to overperform this world cup, being on their home continent.

1. Italy

2. Paraguay

3. Slovakia

4. New Zealand

This group looks pretty clear cut. Italy are the champions, Paraguay one of the strongest teams in South America, Slovakia are one of the weakest European teams to qualify and NZ are NZ.

1. Brazil

2. Ivory Coast

3. Portugal

4. N. Korea

Very tough group. I expect Ivory Coast to be too good for Portugal, who will rely too much on Ronaldo. Brazil are always class at the World Cup.

1. Spain

2. Chile

3. Switzerland

4. Honduras

Spain are the best team in the world right now and will walk this group. Although they will face a quality team in the 2nd round match against whoever finished 2nd in the Group of Death. Any of the other teams could grab 2nd spot.

Round 2:

Mexico v Argentina

England v Ghana

Holland v Paraguay

Brazil v Chile

Nigeria v South Africa

Germany v USA

Italy v Cameroon

Spain v Ivory Coast

Quarters:

Argentina v England

Holland v Brazil

Nigeria v Germany

Italy v Spain

Semis:

England v Brazil

Germany v Spain

Final

England v Spain

This is England's best chance to win a World Cup since I've been a football fan. We always have the players, but never have a good coach. Until now. Brazil and Spain are obviously the other big favourites, and you can never count out Italy and Germany.

[Black Wizard]

England have the easiest group ever. :(

[Slick Mongoose]

1. Germany

2. Ghana

3. Australia

4. Serbia

Germany are looking solid, Ghana should be too good for the Aussies, although I think this group will be very tight. If Aus can manage a draw against Germany or Ghana and a win against Serbia, they should grab 2nd spot.

Now, I know that my predictions had Serbia not qualifying, but I need to come in to defend them here. They're a very good team and the only reason I had them not qualifying is because I gave Ghana a bonus for being African in Africa, and Germany a bonus for being Germany and always doing well regardless of how good they are.

Serbia qualified very well, ahead of France, and have some very good players (Zigic in particular will very difficult to play against). It's perfectly possible they'll top the group and I think Germany will have to be at their best to qualify from that group (and I also think they will be :P ).

I'd be delighted for there to be an upset, but I can't see that group being anything other than a 3-way fight for qualification, with Australia finishing last.

[Slick Mongoose]

England have the easiest group ever. :(

It's harder than Italy's or Spain's. Not that that's saying much. :P

Who are the Scots supporting this year? There's no Jason Scotland playing this time.....

[Black Wizard]

Anyone who's playing England. :P

[Horza]

Now, I know that my predictions had Serbia not qualifying, but I need to come in to defend them here. They're a very good team and the only reason I had them not qualifying is because I gave Ghana a bonus for being African in Africa, and Germany a bonus for being Germany and always doing well regardless of how good they are.

Serbia qualified very well, ahead of France, and have some very good players (Zigic in particular will very difficult to play against). It's perfectly possible they'll top the group and I think Germany will have to be at their best to qualify from that group (and I also think they will be :P ).

I'd be delighted for there to be an upset, but I can't see that group being anything other than a 3-way fight for qualification, with Australia finishing last.

Uh. I'm used to us getting sold short but why do you think it's only a three way?

As I see it Germany are near-certs and it's a three way battle between AUS-GHA-SRB for the privilege of knocking out England on penalties.

[Slick Mongoose]

Uh. I'm used to us getting sold short but why do you think it's only a three way?

As I see it Germany are near-certs and it's a three way battle between AUS-GHA-SRB for the privilege of knocking out England on penalties.

Because I think Germany, Serbia and Ghana are much better than Australia. :)

I don't think i'm selling you short, in a different group you'd have a great chance of getting through. But you're against three strong teams there.

[Horza]

Yeah, unlike our cakewalk last time with Brazil, Croatia and Japan...

[Slick Mongoose]

Yeah, unlike our cakewalk last time with Brazil, Croatia and Japan...

I'd say Australia are better than Japan, and Croatia screwed that one up by not beating Japan. Your current group is tougher, IMO.

[polishgenius]

I'd say Australia are the worst team in the group but by no means certain to go out - the predictions of a 3-way fight for the other spot sound about right. Although it should also be said that although Germany will almost certainly qualify, because they're Germany, there's no guarantee that they'll be top of the group. I can see that working against Ghana, because they've got them last and you do not want to be the team standing between the Germans and a place in the knockouts.

[Horza]

I'd say Australia are better than Japan, and Croatia screwed that one up by not beating Japan. Your current group is tougher, IMO.

But then again, even had they beaten Japan we would have beaten them - they salvaged a draw out of their game with us with the generous assistance of Graham Poll - in a world with sane reffing we would have been three nil up on penalties that game to say nothing of the disallowed goal or the magic third yellow.

[kuroishi]

I think a lot of people are giving undue credit to Serbia based on their qualification campaign. They went in front of France because we screwed up some games that we should not have (against Austria, Romania...). They didn't held up very well against us (scoring in their home game thanks to a fake penalty/red card combo at the 10th minute), and I think that teams like Australia, who had a good qualification campaign too, should be able to get a good result against them.

If Argentina is at their level of the last months, this group could be very surprising.

Edit : Woups ! That's Germany and not Argentina, well, forget the last sentence please...

[Sir Thursday]

I've never quite understood the "Germans will always get through because they're German" philosophy. They didn't make it out of the group stages in Euro 2000 or 2004, for example. Certainly, they did better than expected at Euro 2008, but this mythical idea that somehow Germany always manage to win seems nonsensical to me. Certainly in this case I would put them as favourites to qualify, even with that group being strong, but I certainly wouldn't be so quick to pencil them in straight away. I admit I haven't seen them play since the Euros, but my memories of them in that competition were that they were incredibly fragile at the back and frankly, looked very beatable (as Croatia proved). Has something changed about them since then that means that Ghana, Serbia and Australia aren't going to trouble them?

[Horza]

I've never quite understood the "Germans will always get through because they're German" philosophy. They didn't make it out of the group stages in Euro 2000 or 2004, for example. Certainly, they did better than expected at Euro 2008, but this mythical idea that somehow Germany always manage to win seems nonsensical to me. Certainly in this case I would put them as favourites to qualify, even with that group being strong, but I certainly wouldn't be so quick to pencil them in straight away. I admit I haven't seen them play since the Euros, but my memories of them in that competition were that they were incredibly fragile at the back and frankly, looked very beatable (as Croatia proved). Has something changed about them since then that means that Ghana, Serbia and Australia aren't going to trouble them?

Them not losing a WC Group match since 1986 probably has something to do with it.

[polishgenius]

Because if, as is commonly accepted, West Germany count as Germany, they've been to at least the semi-finals 11 of the 18 world cups so far, and to the quarters every time since 1978 in which year they didn't have knockout stages.

[Jon AS]

Germany has also made it to more WC finals than any other country, even Brazil. In fact, if you combine WC and Euro performances, Germany made it to the final of 50% of all tournaments they qualified for, which they failed to do only once.

ETA: Of course past performances don’t count for that much, but the current team is much stronger than the one from ~1998-2004.

[polishgenius]

ETA: Of course past performances don’t count for that much,

No, but you do have to take the national mentality and the history of things into it. It's why a talented but relatively functional Brazil are probably more strongly fancied than a Spain side whose bench will be stronger than some first teams, and why England never, ever want penalties.