Dornish Development (aDwD spoilers)

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I think people were too quick to conclude that the event wouldn't take place in Dorne, which makes the theories about what it could be kind of far-fetched. We already have an event that's been foreshadowed to happen shortly after the events of AFFC, Balon Swann's arrival in Sunspear. We can be reasonably certain that Balon is sent there to rescue Myrcella; Cersei practically says as much to Jaime in the third Jaime chapter in AFFC:

"If you had not sent Balon Swann to Dorne--" "I need him there. These Dornishmen cannot be trusted. That red snake championed Tyrion, have you forgotten that? I will not leave my daughter to their mercy. And I will _not_ have Loras Tyrell commanding the Kingsguard."

It is easy to imagine how a failed rescue attempt, particularly one that resulted in the deaths of Myrcella or Balon, would be something that would provoke a Dornish reaction. Conversely, it's hard for me to see a chain of events under which Tommen would die shortly after the end of AFFC. Chris.t's idea about the Darkstar becoming master-at-arms and killing Tommen during training doesn't fit because Cersei is in jail now and whatever ideas she may have had about who is to be master-at-arms are irrelevant. That's up to Maester Pycelle now, and Pycelle thought that recruiting a Dornish master-at-arms would be an unnecessary provocation.

[Faint]

I may be confused about the timeline but I supposed, with the new update, that the event actually happened towards the end of ADwD. If it wasn't, why would Arriane's POVs be moved to the next book? Unless George wanted to go back in time again.

[sentence]

Why not Doran's death? (likely, by natural causes). It´s a MAJOR event in Dorne, but only a small report in the north.

Also, it puts Arianne as ruler of Dorne, so does match with her returning as a POV.

(sorry for my english, I am not a native speaker)

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I may be confused about the timeline but I supposed, with the new update, that the event actually happened towards the end of ADwD. If it did, why would Arriane's POVs be moved to the next book? Unless George wanted to go back in time again.

All GRRM said that the Dornish reaction, which involved three Arianne POVs and a complementary chapter from another POV, has been moved to TWOW; and that the event itself still took place during ADWD, only close to the end of the novel. He never said that Arianne would not appear in ADWD.

[Faint]

All GRRM said that the Dornish reaction, which involved three Arianne POVs and a complementary chapter from another POV, has been moved to TWOW; and that the event itself still took place during ADWD, only close to the end of the novel. He never said that Arianne would not appear in ADWD.

That's what I mean though. Towards the end of the novel doesn't mean that Tommen's death would happen so soon after the events of AFfC. Meaning, it would be more realistic.

[ishmael]

I know the death of Doran Martell has been discussed as a possibility for the event that GRRM speaks of, but I think the attempted assassination of Doran Martell by Balon Swann, fits the bill. Swann is unsuccessful, but is persuaded to give details about the plot and lets it slip that it was Cersei's idea. This would force the Dornoish to respond in some way, but they could reach out to the Tyrells to become allies against the Lannisters. This situation would only require some minor tweeks to the story as this would only be known by the heads of the two invovled houses for the time being.

Nothing would have to happen for the SandSnakes to be moved to action, that is what makes me think Doran is still in charge, and not dead, when the deal goes down.

The other thing I think could provoke a Dornish reaction would be the kidnapping of Dany by the Iron Born. But, this would be a much more complicated issue that would require some involvement/reaction by the other players in Westros. Unless GRRM is being misleading about how much tweeking he had to do to the story in response to the Dornish reaction.

Tommen dying would invoke a "we wait and see" attitude in Doran, just like so many past events. Several things would have to happen at once for the death of Tommen to provoke Doran into action. By it being described as "there's this event that would of necessity provoke a Dornish reaction", seems to eliminate Tommens death, because the Dornish have not reacted to any of the other more important deaths in the story. I know Tommen is King, but he is only King in name right now. Doran will not want to be parading Myrcella around with a huge gash in her face where soemone tried to kill her.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

That's what I mean though. Towards the end of the novel doesn't mean that Tommen's death would happen so soon after the events of AFfC. Meaning, it would be more realistic.

Regardless, it would be taking place within a couple of months of the events of AFFC, and since healthy eight year olds don't just up and die it would presumably be the result of foul play. And I'm skeptical that the situation could devolve to that point in so short a time, particularly since I haven't heard a good theory about how it could happen.

[Nukelavee]

Alle - (call me Nuke, lol, you has too many vowels) - valid point. But, there's no certainty that we know all the irons Doran has in the fire.

Still, in retrospect, I wasn't really thinking "invade the Reach", rather, moving to his end-game "mastermove" (whatever that may be).

Where Dorne is concerned, personally, I'm in a "idley thinking how I would do things in Doran's position" mode.

If Mace gets wiped, could Doran somehow reach an alliance with the Tyrell heir? things like that, because i think that, intelligence wise, Tywin, Petyr, and Doran are the dangerous ones. Varys is a total wildcard.

I have a theory or two, about life in general. One is that the worst events are the ones out of left field, because are an absolute surprise. So long as you can at least concieve of a possibility, you can never be caught totally flatfooted, because surprise isn't totally , umm, total? So, when dealing with a series like this... i just like to come up with lots of scenarios.

Mostly, because I LOVE that feeling I get when I realize, just before the characters, of just how unavoidable their fate is. (the main reason i love "the spanish prisoner", with steve martin).

[Faint]

Regardless, it would be taking place within a couple of months of the events of AFFC, and since healthy eight year olds don't just up and die it would presumably be the result of foul play. And I'm skeptical that the situation could devolve to that point in so short a time, particularly since I haven't heard a good theory about how it could happen.

Admittedly, I have none myself. I've had it in my mind that Gregor would do the deed but only on stylistic grounds. I just feel Cersei must be responsible for it in some fashion. But in any case, I don't see his death being dependent on the situation, whatever "the situation" might mean in this instance, devolving to a specified degree. I also don't see why his death can't be both shocking and unexpected (or, at least, as shocking and unexpected as a death with a prophecy behind it is likely to be).

[chris.t.]

Chris.t's idea about the Darkstar becoming master-at-arms and killing Tommen during training doesn't fit because Cersei is in jail now and whatever ideas she may have had about who is to be master-at-arms are irrelevant. That's up to Maester Pycelle now, and Pycelle thought that recruiting a Dornish master-at-arms would be an unnecessary provocation.

I didn't say that the master-at-arms would be Darkster. That was someone else. I just said it'd be Cersei's Dornish master-at-arms, whomever that might be. My hypothesis is that she's already sent for him. He shows up and whomever is in custody of Tommen at the time sees no reason not to use him. It can't be Loras now, after all, because he's horribly injured. But the little king most definitely needs some training and the Dornishman is well-qualified and willing.

I'm not even saying the training accident would need to be part of some greater plot. The Dornishman could act alone out of Dornish pride, or it could even be a legitimate accident.

Heck, it'd be just as good if a Dornishman shows up and gets rebuffed by Pycelle or the Tyrells with some slurs toward his Dornishness, and then they retain an incompetent master who gets Tommen killed. I might like that scenario even better.

[sentence]

Why Balon Swann would attempt against Doran?

Dorne has been quiet and removing Doran does not make any profit for the Iron Throne.

[Faint]

Heck, it'd be just as good if a Dornishman shows up and gets rebuffed by Pycelle or the Tyrells with some slurs toward his Dornishness, and then they retain an incompetent master who gets Tommen killed. I might like that scenario even better.

If I was going to go down this avenue, I'd actually start the theory with Doran dying and leaving Arianne in charge. Then I'd have her ordering the assassination. Not saying any of this is likely but that seems most reasonable under the premise that the master-at-arms gets Tommen killed. And Cersei would be responsible too, so it has that going for it. I'm convinced if Tommen dies it will have to have been Cersei's fault somehow.

[chris.t.]

I'm convinced if Tommen dies it will have to have been Cersei's fault somehow.

It almost has to happen that way doesn't it? She spends an entire book trying to alienate Tommen from the single family in the kingdom with the most to gain from Tommen living a long, happy life.

[TrackerNeil]

If I was going to go down this avenue, I'd actually start the theory with Doran dying and leaving Arianne in charge. Then I'd have her ordering the assassination. Not saying any of this is likely but that seems most reasonable under the premise that the master-at-arms gets Tommen killed. And Cersei would be responsible too, so it has that going for it. I'm convinced if Tommen dies it will have to have been Cersei's fault somehow.

Personally, I think things in Dorne are going down something like this:

1) Balon Swann, on a mission from Cersei to retrieve Myrcella, does something that results in his death and that of Prince Doran and Myrcella.

2) Arianne, upon assuming her father's mantle, immediately orders the release of the Sand Snakes, who urge retribution for both Arianne's father and theirs.

3) The Dornish sack Stonehelm, the seat of House Swann on the Marches, in retaliation for Ser Balon's part in Doran's death.

4) Princess Arianne declares for Daenerys.

[ishmael]

Why Balon Swann would attempt against Doran?

Dorne has been quiet and removing Doran does not make any profit for the Iron Throne.

You have to look at what single events would require a Dornish reaction. Tommen dying short of a Dornishman being framed, does not fit the bill. Dany refusing to marry Quentyn Martell or him dying, does not fit the bill. A political motivation will require several events to happen for the Dornish to have to respond.

Cersei knows the deal for Myrcella was made between Tyrion(?sp) and Doran, so Doran is as big a traitor to the Lannisters as Tyrion. Cersei does not need a well thoughtout reason to do something irrational.

[Faint]

Personally, I think things in Dorne are going down something like this:1) Balon Swann, on a mission from Cersei to retrieve Myrcella, does something that results in his death and that of Prince Doran and Myrcella.

What would this be though? Neither Balon, Doran, nor Arianne want Myrcella dead. So what could possibly happen that would get her killed in conjunction with Doran?

Tommen dying short of a Dornishman being framed, does not fit the bill.

If Tommen dies, then the Martells hold the presumptive heir to the throne while simultaneously trying to displace that heir with Daenerys. The Lannisters will of course be wanting Myrcella back if Tommen dies, thus forcing the Martells to react in some way. I think stalling is out of the question at that point since Balon Swann is already in Dorne. They can only stall so long anyway, even if they imprison Swann and start sending fake missives back to King's Landing.

[Queen in the North]

The thing about Tommen dying, regardless of who is responsible, is that it would be immediately important to people outside of Dorne, and GRRM implied that people outside of Dorne (not just in the North/Essos, because it would be happening after the part that is parallel to AFFC) wouldn't really care. Doran dying is definitely an option, because it wouldn't necessarily be important outside of Dorne, it would provoke a Dornish response, and (most importantly ;) ) I like Doran, so something awful has to happen to him eventually.

Cersei knows the deal for Myrcella was made between Tyrion(?sp) and Doran, so Doran is as big a traitor to the Lannisters as Tyrion. Cersei does not need a well thoughtout reason to do something irrational.

Also, why would Cersei be in a position to be doing anything? she's been arrested by the Faith.

[Faint]

The thing about Tommen dying, regardless of who is responsible, is that it would be immediately important to people outside of Dorne, and GRRM implied that people outside of Dorne (not just in the North/Essos, because it would be happening after the part that is parallel to AFFC) wouldn't really care. Doran dying is definitely an option, because it wouldn't necessarily be important outside of Dorne, it would provoke a Dornish response, and (most importantly ;) ) I like Doran, so something awful has to happen to him eventually.

Perhaps I have to familiarize myself with this subject more but can you point out where this was implied? If this regarding George only having to tweak a few lines in a POV within ADwD, I don't think that's good evidence because any reaction, not only Dorne's, would have to come in the next book anyway if the event in question is towards the end of ADwD. If I theorize Tommen dying, I theorize this happening in either the last or second to last POV in the south part of Westeros within ADwD.

[TrackerNeil]

What would this be though? Neither Balon, Doran, nor Arianne want Myrcella dead. So what could possibly happen that would get her killed in conjunction with Doran?

I envision Balon Swann attempting to make off with Myrcella, as I believe Cersei ordered, which of course Doran would oppose given that Myrcella is his ward. Remember what happened when Arianne tried to spirit Myrcella away? Well, imagine that but with even more death.

[Queen in the North]

I was referring to GRRM only having to tweak a few lines to change the event from the middle of ADWD to the end. This means that no one outside of Dorne reacted, because if they had, it would've been included in their POVS from the end of the book.