Dornish Development (aDwD spoilers)

[Faint]

I envision Balon Swann attempting to make off with Myrcella, as I believe Cersei ordered, which of course Doran would oppose given that Myrcella is his ward. Remember what happened when Arianne tried to spirit Myrcella away? Well, imagine that but with even more death.

Wouldn't this be a little repetitive though? And through which POV would we get this? Areo Hotah, I suppose. Still, wouldn't this entail Balon Swann assassinating Doran than making off with Myrcella? I suppose Cersei could have given that order even though it sounds a little insane to me. That said, the Balon Swann question is much unsettled and I don't have a good answer for it myself.

Doran's current plan is doomed from the start, though. Whether Arianne is successful in getting Myrcella to lie or not, there is no way Balon Swann is going to buy what she's selling. She's missing an ear and resembles her smaller uncle more than Jaime now. But he is only one knight. He has no conspirators. Arianne, whatever her folly, at least had some help.

I was referring to GRRM only having to tweak a few lines to change the event from the middle of ADWD to the end. This means that no one outside of Dorne reacted, because if they had, it would've been included in their POVS from the end of the book.

I have to go back and read his exact comments although this makes it sound almost trivial. Even Doran dying, I'd think, would neccessitate more of a reaction. Then again, I don't think the court at King's Landing is familiar with Arianne and are not expecting mischief by the Martells.

[Alexia]

If the Dornish declare for Daenerys, assuming that Myrcella doesn't die, I think its fairly likely that they will name her the Lady of Casterly Rock and force her to declare for Daenerys as well.

This is assuming the outlined suggestion that Tommen will die takes place.

[Faint]

If the Dornish declare for Daenerys, assuming that Myrcella doesn't die, I think its fairly likely that they will name her the Lady of Casterly Rock and force her to declare for Daenerys as well.

This is assuming the outlined suggestion that Tommen will die takes place.

I had this mind as well. More generally though, even if "the event" is not Tommen dying, do most assume he will die before Myrcella or after?

Because under the first assumption, the more likely in my view -- unless there is a concurrent crowning -- this scenario will eventually present itself: the presumed heir to Westeros will be in Martell hands, who themselves back a rival claimant.

Edit: I should probably note that my assumptions are based on thinking that Cersei's prophecy will come true and that Myrcella will be crowned.

[Alexia]

Edit: I should probably note that my assumptions are based on thinking that Cersei's prophecy will come true and that Myrcella will be crowned.

Well, she's been crowned already and she survived the resultant attempt at murder - and crowns of gold could as easily refer to her hair.

[Nafro]

I have no clue as to what is going to happen in Dorne. There seems to be little to no foreshadowing for that plot.

[Faint]

Well, she's been crowned already and she survived the resultant attempt at murder - and crowns of gold could as easily refer to her hair.

I was going to address this myself before but, in any case, I tend to assume the prophecy will come to fruition in a more literal sense. Enough so that Cersei realizes that Myrcella has been crowned. Otherwise, well, wouldn't that be strange? How would Cersei react to news of Myrcella's death not knowing she had been crowned in a sense? Devastated by sadness but convinced the prophecy is off? See, I think it's a necessary prerequisite that Cersei knows the prophecy is being fulfilled or the literary device will have been wasted to some degree.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Wouldn't this be a little repetitive though? And through which POV would we get this? Areo Hotah, I suppose.

I would think Arianne, since she'll be coaching Myrcella beforehand anyway.

Regarding who would kill Myrcella, I think this would be a good time for the Darkstar to make a reappearance. Presumably as a well-known knight with a storied name, he has some pull with the common folk and could perhaps get his way into the court at Sunspear in order to finish the job he started. Granted, that would be a suicide mission--but I don't think that would necessarily be out of character for Darkstar, and could be one reason why Doran thinks of him as dangerous. He wouldn't be the first person who had an obsession with recognition ("My House goes back ten thousand years, unto the dawn of days. ... Why is it that my cousin is the only Dayne that anyone remembers?") that led them to commit some high profile murder at the cost of their own life.

[Faint]

Is this assuming Darkstar kills Doran as well? I'm also reading this as an assassination in the middle of court or thereabouts.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Is this assuming Darkstar kills Doran as well? I'm also reading this as an assassination in the middle of court or thereabouts.

Well, maybe. TrackerNeil and I came up with this theory together one day, and since then it's seemed really solid to me in most respects--particularly when GRRM referred to writing a chapter in the Rainwood, where Stonehelm is located--but I'm unsure about the timing of Doran's death w/r/t everything else. It could take place shortly after Doran dies of natural causes, Doran could die during the altercation, or something else could happen to him shortly thereafter.

[Faint]

. . . particularly when GRRM referred to writing a chapter in the Rainwood, where Stonehelm is located . . .

I did not know about that. This little piece of information makes the whole theory more convincing. Although, now I wonder how it would fit into the rest of the story. House Swann being sworn to House Baratheon, if I remember correctly. Would anybody in King's Landing care all that much?

If this was followed or accompanied by Arianne declaring for Daenerys, that would be something else entirely. And it would fit in with her character -- declaring at the worst possible time, with all advantage gone, and no surety that Quentyn is even successful in his quest.

[Queen in the North]

I, like many others seem to be, am of the opinion that Myrcella will die after Tommen. Since I don't think that Tommen's death will be the major event, that leave's Doran's death as the only main option being discussed, and I think it likely that this is the event. I do like the idea of Darkstar killing him, mostly because i don't think we've seen the last of him and this is a good way for him to be re-injected into the plot.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

If this was followed or accompanied by Arianne declaring for Daenerys, that would be something else entirely.

Yeah, exactly. Put it this way--two heroic sons of the Marches have died at Dornish hands. If Arianne attacks Stonehelm in retaliation while flying the Targaryen banner, that would only infuriate the Marcher lords further... and suddenly Dany is involved in a tribal war between Dorne and the Marches that goes back thousands of years. (Remember the House Oakheart tapestries: it's all heroically killing Dornishmen or heroically being killed by Dornishmen.)

[Queen in the North]

suddenly Dany is involved in a tribal war between Dorne and the Marches that goes back thousands of years.

It would be so like GRRM to use other people's ineptitude to make Dany's life difficult like this.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

It would be so like GRRM to use other people's ineptitude to make Dany's life difficult like this.

Indeed. And it's easy to see how people might use Daenerys's invasion to advance agendas that have little or nothing to do with her.

[Ealasaid]

Could be about Gregor Clegane being only mostly dead.

Chuckle. Yes, that and perhapsthe head is not Gregor's either.

I hope the Prince of Dorne doesn't die. I know that there are lots of heads of houses that haven't died who might come to the fore. But some extremely influential people have. When Tywin died, I was glad, and then thought this is going to play hell with Westeros - Cersei unchecked.

I am going to go with Dorne discovering they have been duped and the Red Viper died for nought, and those reavers from Pike getting Highgarden in an uproar, and then the Dornish folk get a little crabby.

And that's probably all wrong. But at least we'll learn more about Dorne.

[Faint]

George referring to writing a chapter in the Rainwood seems conclusive on my end. Why else would a chapter be written in that particular location? There isn't much there to start with and House Swann is one of the few things we associate with the area. Although, I'm open to suggestions on alternatives to House Martell doing away with House Swann.

[Eddard house stark]

Could it be margarey is found guilty of treason and executed prompting the assassination of tommen and possibly cersei by house tyrell

[ishmael]

1) The OP quote from GRRM says "The event was originally going to occur near the end of the book, but in one of my forty-seven restructures I moved it to the late middle instead." He'll have plenty of time to address any issues or reactions from the other kingdoms.

2) If I remember correctly, Swann was sent on his mission prior to Cersei being imprisoned, so she could have plotted anything with him or given him any orders. Other than a few lines about him being sent, we don't know a whole lot about his mission, and this leaves GRRM a lot of options.

3) In Dornish culture Myrcella would be the next heir, but in the other 6 kingdoms, she has no claim on the throne. Doran in reality has nothing other than Cersei Lannister's last living child once Tommen dies. Doran wanting to go to war to put the grandchild of the man he knows is ultimately responsible for Elia's death, makes no sense, and that would really have major implications on the entire realm, not just Dorne. Mycella will not be recognized as the heir unless Dorne puts her on the throne by millitary might. Do the Dornish really want the Lannisters on the Iron Throne, other than to see Dany and her dragons cook them alive?

The event has to be something that either presents them with too good of on opportunity not to act or leaves them no choice but to react. Tommen's death doesn't do either.

[Whatever]

but in the other 6 kingdoms, she has no claim on the throne. Doran in reality has nothing other than Cersei Lannister's last living child once Tommen dies.

She has claim to the throne if tommen dies..

[Queen in the North]

1) The OP quote from GRRM says "The event was originally going to occur near the end of the book, but in one of my forty-seven restructures I moved it to the late middle instead." He'll have plenty of time to address any issues or reactions from the other kingdoms.

If you click the link and read the rest of the entry, however, it says that it is now at the end of ADWD once more, and, as Whatever said, Myrcella is indeed Queen after Tommen dies if he has no legitimate children. Therefore, Doran's probable actions if Tommen were to die would be a) give Myrcella back to the Lannisters with some excuse as to why she got hurt or b ) keep Myrcella as a hostage and declare for Dany.

Edited for a typo.