Dornish Development (aDwD spoilers)

[Lord Varys]

It would be the same with Myrcella's death as it would be if Doran died. It would happen in Dorne, and to trigger a Dornish reaction, we would need this news travel to outside of Dorne, trigger some reaction/attack there, which would eventual lead to a Dornish answer. That would be rather complicated, and not the situation GRRM described in his blog entry. Especially if Doran would die, it is extremely unlikely that this would cause an action outside of Dorne that would really force Dorne to react. No one attacked Dorne when Oberyn died, I doubt that whoever in KL receives the news about Doran's death would declare war on them. The shape the Small Council is now in, I'd be surprised if they would actually receive the news.

Also, there is no chance that Darkstar ever gets near Myrcella again. He is an outlaw now, and hunted in Dorne. And I have no idea what this character could possibly do. As he is the guy who attacked Myrcella, he cannot go to KL, or talk to somebody else about the plot he was a part of. And he is no longer welcome in Dorne either. So why let GRRM him live?

Myrcella could die of her wounds, I think, but the Martells should be able to conceal this fact long enough.

[Lord Varys]

Based on what, specifically? I can think of people who speak about Mace's stubborn ambition, and Tyrion thought of him as something of a blowhard, but I can't think of any time when Mace Tyrell had shown himself to be ruthless.

Not ruthless, but furious and light-headed. And if violence starts, he likely will not be able to stop it, or care to do so. I did not intend to say he would - as Tywin is known to do - wait out of the city, and send his dogs in to sack the city, but I doubt that he will not make a show of force with his troops. And he will likely make it perfectly clear that he does not give a damn about the law and accusations, he does want his daughter back.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

And he will likely make it perfectly clear that he does not give a damn about the law and accusations, he does want his daughter back.

I agree with that much. But there's a difference between demanding his daughter back (a demand that I imagine the High Septon would comply with immediately, but ymmv) and deciding to have his men cut through the city while his daughter is being held hostage. A Tyrell rampage against the Faith would cause a lot of unnecessary bloodshed and put Margaery's life at risk for no good reason. Somebody like Joffrey or Jaime would probably do it anyway, in Mace's position; but Mace has never been reckless or brutal like them. If anything, his actions during Robert's Rebellion suggest that he's a very cautious commander, perfectly willing to out-wait an enemy like Stannis for months on end.

[Swense]

He'd demand his daughter back, I think. But I don't think he'd hesitate to use force if that's what was called for, but at the same time I don't think he would be intelligent enough to see that the flower of Highgarden's chivalric tradition would be absolutely useless in the close-quarters fighting in King's Landing or that his foes are fanatics who will fight to the death.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

But I don't think he'd hesitate to use force if that's what was called for...

Sure. But using force when the situation calls for it is a far cry from butchering first and asking questions afterward. And since the High Septon could easily kill Margaery once he knew that his situation was lost, but at the same time might be willing to give her up in exchange for his life and the life of his followers, I don't see how the situation calls for the immediate use of force. Quite the opposite, in fact.

[Swense]

Yes. But his knights will clamor for a fight. We already saw that when Renly prepared to attack Stannis. And I don't know if he has the political savvy to reign them in. I also think that he may attack anyways after his daughter is safe. Not out of cruelty or pragmatism but out of the ease with which he seems to be manipulated by others. I don't get the impression of a strong leader, but one who is willing to please, and if some other Lannister or Tyrell with more cruelty wanted it done he would probably cave.

[Lord Varys]

I'm perfectly with you that Mace's men (and maybe he, too) are not eager to attack the Holy Faith - especially as we know that chivalry, and the Faith likely also, are strongest in the Reach, which could become a great problem if Mace really is going to consider an attack on Baelor's Sept.

And I doubt that the High Septon is going to give in to any demands. He played Cersei, and its not unlikely that he is able to play Mace, too. At least to an extent. Especially as he has information on Cersei that will help him to direct the wrath of the Tyrells on the Lannisters, rather than on the Faith. But he will struck a deal with him, in the end, I think, as the evidence on Margaery is not nearly as incriminating as it is the evidence on Cersei.

I think about interaction between Lannister and Tyrell men. If Mace arrives first, and is joined by Randyll Tarly, he likely will cut off the city from the outside world, and forbid that Jaime and/or Kevan are let in the city to join King Tommen (I'd do that - whoever arrives first will control the city and the King). And if there are three or four armies (Mace's, Tarly's, Kevan's, Jaime's, and the Faith Militant) outside the walls, violence is pretty likely.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I'm perfectly with you that Mace's men (and maybe he, too) are not eager to attack the Holy Faith - especially as we know that chivalry, and the Faith likely also, are strongest in the Reach, which could become a great problem if Mace really is going to consider an attack on Baelor's Sept. And I doubt that the High Septon is going to give in to any demands. He played Cersei, and its not unlikely that he is able to play Mace, too. At least to an extent. Especially as he has information on Cersei that will help him to direct the wrath of the Tyrells on the Lannisters, rather than on the Faith. But he will struck a deal with him, in the end, I think, as the evidence on Margaery is not nearly as incriminating as it is the evidence on Cersei.

I agree with this. Mace will put a higher priority on dealing with Cersei, and then the other Lannisters, and then other crises that are going to come up in quick succession.

Yes. But his knights will clamor for a fight. We already saw that when Renly prepared to attack Stannis. And I don't know if he has the political savvy to reign them in. I also think that he may attack anyways after his daughter is safe. Not out of cruelty or pragmatism but out of the ease with which he seems to be manipulated by others. I don't get the impression of a strong leader, but one who is willing to please, and if some other Lannister or Tyrell with more cruelty wanted it done he would probably cave.

I think you're overstating how easy it is to manipulate Mace Tyrell. Olenna says the exact opposite to Sansa in ASOS, that once Mace gets his head set on something (she was talking about the throne in that case), there was no dissuading him, even by the crafty woman who knew him best. Littlefinger, Cersei and others were able to convince him to make various tactical choices (offer Loras as a member of the KG, lay siege to Storm's End, etc.), but for the big things, Mace wants what he wants.

[fionwe1987]

I highly doubt the faith will want to hold on to Margery. Given that they've now got Cersei, and they know the whole Margery affair was her plot, I doubt they'd want to keep the very popular queen who's the reason King's Landing is being fed. Plus, the Reach seems to have the strongest ties to the faith, and most of its adherents reside there.

If the High Septon wants to show his power, he'll keep Cersei, release Margery, and inform the enraged Mace Tyrell and his host that Margery was set up by the evil incestuous Queen Cersei, and the Faith nipped the plot and only captured Margery to keep her safe, etc.

This way, he does the popular thing, and also keeps the most powerful House happy with his actions.

Given that the Lannisters are licking their wounds and Kevan has decided to consolidate their lost power before they do anything, I think its quite likely Tommen will be Olenna's puppet in the near future.

This might well provoke a response from Dorne, but I have doubts. For one, I think this will occur fairly early in the book, and for another, I doubt Doran cares who is the actual power in KL now. His aim is to have a Dragon rule again, and House Martell closely allied to her. He'll probably let the remnants of the Lannisters and Mace fight it out.

[Jughead of the Round]

I think most of you are forgetting that the event can't be that big... or onscreen at least anywhere, since

(The move did mean I had to revise two chapters from another POV, which took place after the event in last week's draft, but now take place before said event, but fortunately that was just a matter of tweaking a couple of lines).

If the event is earth-shattering, then more than a couple of lines would have to be tweaked, I'm thinking.

I'm for Doran Martell dying offscreen, and Arianne having to deal with the pressure now put on her to go to war. (Which is a reaction by Dorne.) I'm sure with the added information her father has given her about Dany, she will want to stall going to war. This should be an excellent opportunity for the maturation of her character.

Throw in both the Darkstar and Balon Swann possibly causing more mischief, and Arianne will have her hands full.

[Guest Other-in-Law]

I think most of you are forgetting that the event can't be that big... or onscreen at least anywhere, since

If the event is earth-shattering, then more than a couple of lines would have to be tweaked, I'm thinking.

It's apparently big enough that Dorne has to react to it...that doesn't mean it's such a big deal to anyone else. Look at the death of Elia and her children, for Tywin it was a way to get in with the new regime, for Ned it was a crime and reason to be mad at Robert for a little while. Then basically everyone else forgets about it. For Dorne, though...it's a source of seething resentment for fifteen years, and nearly the cause of war breaking out during Robert's reign. They sure as hell didn't forget about it.

I think an important part is that Dorne has to react to whatever it is. If Doran is still alive and calling the shots it narrows things down quite a bit, I think. Doran is essentially reactive, not proactive. The boldest move he's made so far was the arrest of the Sandsnakes, and that was because they were on the verge of fomenting a rebellion against him. He had to act if he wanted to stay in power. With Arianne, he actually lets her rebellion get started to see if she'll really do it.

To me, that means Doran siezing the initiative and attacking an undefended Highgarden or Oldtown is quite improbable (what particular beef does he have against them, anyway? It's the Lannisters he hates). That would be entirely optional, and if Doran has an option, he'll choose doing nothing for now, thank you very much.

For Doran to really act most likely means he's threatened and needs to move defensively. Of course, it's very possible that Doran is not in charge at that point, but a natural death seems like the only way for that to happen, his main domestic rivals are locked up except for the Darkstar, who's a wanted man and unable to move through Dorne very freely.

On Balon Swann's mission, I've always figured it was basically to bring Myrcella home, possibly by trying the same trick Arianne did with the distant cousin that Tyrion sent with her. When he does finally see her and her disfigurement, I don't see why he would even need to resort to subterfuge, he can indignantly demand she return with him, since the Dornish have failed so dramatically to keep the heir to the throne safe. Would Doran have a leg to stand on, refusing him? Seems like it would practically be a declaration of war to do so, and Doran has been desperately trying to postpone war all through aFfC.

[Gaston de Foix]

I would like to note that I am certainly not very impressed with what I just read. Moving a major event close to the end of the book sounds awfully close to what was done to all major events in Feast and I'm not very fond of the idea of reading another book, however well written, of nothing happening until the very end. Hope I'm wrong about this though.

Anyway, I don't think trying to just blindly guess what this event Martin is talking about actually is would be very fruitful. We should first try to think of any and all events that meet the requirement of being able to provoke a strong Dornish reaction and then narrow our focus to the more likely hypotheses. First narrowing the focus and then searching for alternatives is not a very good strategy.

Until now we have:

1. the death of Quentyn Martell;

2. the death of Tommen;

3. Some action of Balon Swann;

4. the death of Doran Martell (my, aren't we a merry fandom);

5. Attack on Highgarden;

6. Dany being on her way back;

And from me: 7. Cersei being saved and then disposed of and Mace Tyrell taking control of the Kingdom in some way;

And just for fun: 8. the Revelation of The R+L=J Conspiracy which I guess House Martell would be rather unhappy about (lalala).

So what else do we have? (let's make them as much as possible before tearing them apart one by one ^.^)

sigh... I don't think are following your lead,TsukimorY which is a shame because I think you have the right approach. Much of what I have read on this thread seems implausible to me for one reason or another but people just seem to be diving into it rather than carefully eliminating possibilities.

7. a marriage proposal for Arianne Martell from Willas Tyrell.

8. an offer from Stannis of alliance with Dorne via Davos or someone else.

9. Alleras dying because of some event in Oldtown/ some act of the imposter Pate.

10. The revelation of the existence of undead Gregor/the death of Margaery Tyrell

11. the death of Loras.

12. the fall of Dragonstone.

13. The re-emergence of Darkstar, either in Highgarden or King's Landing. Cersei was talking about getting a new master of arms, and it would be just like her to appoint Gerold Dayne to the post.

To go back to the original GRRM post, I think GRRM is making a strong claim that the event would of necessity provoke a strong Dornish reaction. More to the point, it is an event where Dorne's reaction is of much greater relevance than say Jaime Lannister's or Davos'. But I also think that GRRM is effectively admitting it would not make such a splash in other POVs. Changing a few lines doesn't seem like such a big deal. My money is on 7 and 13.

Just to quickly deal with all the 'fall of Cersei' scenarios that people seem to be imagining. First off, Cersei isn't going to 'fall' until Dany is back in town. Read the prophecy guys. It would be foolish in ASOIAF to place too much faith in prophecies, but it's not really GRRM's style to blow them up directly. He's a master of misdirection instead. Second, does that really warrant a couple of line tweaks? Third, why is it necessary to show a Dornish reaction in ADWD? GRRM could have waited for TWOW easily.

[Bronn55]

Darkstar would never be master at arms at Kings Landing, first because he would have to travel through the mountain passes which are being guarded by Dornishmen to get there, and also because he is anti-Lannister I mean he did try to kill Cersei's 12 year old girl I doubt he'd go work for her. I figure Darkstar will play a part later, maybe as the claimant for the throne that the Sand Snakes get behind before Dany arrives.

But back to the topic.... THE GOLDEN COMPANY. The mercenary outfit was mentioned briefly in AFFC but no one here has mentioned them. Arianne suspects that the Golden Company had been hired by her father to help Quentin win the throne from her upon her father's death, but I suspect that the Golden Company will land in Westeros. Tywin Lannister brought the Bloody Mummers from the East to fight for him, I can definetly see Doran Martell hiring them to fight for Dorne. I think the ships carrying them across the Narrow Sea will be discovered by one of the Naval forces operating off the coast of Westeros. Once word leaks out that the Golden Company is on its way over from the East for Dorne Doran will have no choice but to launch an attack against the Tyrell/Lannister alliance since they will know that he is planning something and the element of surprise he was counting on would be lost if he didnt attack immediately. Think about it, Doran knows Dorne doesn't have the population to install Dany on the throne, so he would hire mercenaries to bolster his numbers and help install Dany to the throne. Doran doesnt know about Dany's army so it makes sense that he'd assume more men would be necassary to win a war against the Lannisters.

[Werthead]

Except that the Golden Company are utterly opposed to the Targaryens in all ways, shapes and forms, and would likely saw off their left arms than fight for a Targarayen ruler. At the first word that Daenerys is conquering Slaver's Bay, they would be far more likely to, for example, break their pre-existing contracts in the Disputed Lands and ride east ASAP to help bring her down. That's pretty much what we are told is happening in AFFC.

The Golden Company is, to me, far more likely to be fighting against Daenerys than supporting her in any way. And in AFFC we are told that they are riding east from the Disputed Lands, not west to the coast as they would have to go to get to Dorne.

[Ran]

Except that the Golden Company are utterly opposed to the Targaryens in all ways...

I wouldn't be so sure of that...

[The hairy bear]

Except that the Golden Company are utterly opposed to the Targaryens in all ways, shapes and forms, and would likely saw off their left arms than fight for a Targarayen ruler.

While I don't agree with it and I believe that the Golden Company will at least try to negotiate their support to Dany, your statement has made me think: where were they during Robert's Rebellion? Why didn't they at least try to join the rebels to overthrow the Targaryens? Many of them would could have obtained the lands and titles of pro-Targaryens lords in the bargain....

I think this is something George should address at some point.

[Gregor Barksdale]

Or it could be that the Others invade King's Landing. Certainly Doran would react, a few years later.

[Bronn55]

"A brotherhood of exiles and the sons of exiles united by the dream of bittersteel. It's home they want as much as gold." pg. 281 A Feast for Crows. The Golden Company would realize that the offer from Sunspear is as good a chance they ever had to return to Westeros and recieve extravagent rewards at the same time. Bittersteel's descendents are all dead, killed in the War of the NinePenny Kings. Any loyalties they had to that branch of the Targaryen family is long gone. If anything they would be more likely to support a daughter of the dragon, at least she has some common relation to their founder Bittersteel, the Lannisters and Tyrells are nothing to them.

[Werthead]

I wouldn't be so sure of that...

Interesting. The Golden Company were of course founded by Bittersteel, one of the Blackfyre Pretenders (or, more technically, the strongest supporter of several of the Blackfyre Pretenders) driven from Westeros by the Targaryen victory in the Blackfyre Rebellion (I know you know this, just organising my thoughts ;) ). More recently, that we know of, the Golden Company appears to have joined the Band of Nine and supported Maelys Blackfyre's play for power in the War of the Ninepenny Kings, which ended with Maelys Blackfyre being killed by Barristan Selmy, after which the Golden Company (presumably for lack of further Blackfyre heirs) seems to have gone off and made its money fighting as a mercenary company in Essos.

That to me suggests that the Golden Company and Daenerys would not make natural allies, due to their historical antipathy. This need not be final, of course (look at England and France going from being natural, centuries-long rivals and enemies to natural, long-lasting allies not too long after the end of the Napoleonic Wars). It's been fifty years since the War of the 9P Kings and if the GC no longer have a Blackfyre heir, they may decide to say screw it and sign on with Dany as a way of achieving power in Westeros. They may also have decided that the appearance of the dragons marks Dany as a true Targaryen (as we know from The Mystery Knight, many of the Blackfyre supporters placed great stock in the relationship between rulers and dragons) after all, and decided to sign on with her.

So okay, maybe they wouldn't automatically declare war on Dany. But AFFC definitely tells us they are heading east, which suggests they are going to Slaver's Bay, not to Dorne.

I wonder if Barristan Selmy's role in killing Maelys the Monstrous will come up in ADWD? Seems likely if the Golden Company shows up at Meereen, and would allow Barristan to fill Dany and those readers not up to speed on the short stories on the Golden Company's backstory.

[Guest Other-in-Law]

Darkstar would never be master at arms at Kings Landing, first because he would have to travel through the mountain passes which are being guarded by Dornishmen to get there,

No, the mountain passes are hardly the sole way to get from Dorne to the rest of Westeros. He could travel by sea, for one, or maybe along the coast or over the mountains themselves (rather than through the passes.

and also because he is anti-Lannister I mean he did try to kill Cersei's 12 year old girl I doubt he'd go work for her.

Unless his purpose is to get close enough to Tommen to kill him, finishing up what he tried to start with Myrcella.

Also we have no information whatever about Bittersteel's line being extinct. Only that Maelys was the last of Daemon Blackfyre's descendants to vie for the Iron Throne...it's even possible that there are still more Blackfyre descendants out there who gave up the pretending business.