Dornish Development (aDwD spoilers)

[TrackerNeil]

If this was followed or accompanied by Arianne declaring for Daenerys, that would be something else entirely. And it would fit in with her character -- declaring at the worst possible time, with all advantage gone, and no surety that Quentyn is even successful in his quest.

Yup, and that's just the kind of twist I'd expect from GRRM. Arianne declares for a claimant who isn't even yet in Westeros, much less in a position to seriously contend for the Iron Throne. I can just see Daenerys clutching her head and saying, "Oi."

[Faint]

Yup, and that's just the kind of twist I'd expect from GRRM. Arianne declares for a claimant who isn't even yet in Westeros, much ready in a position to seriously contend for the Iron Throne. I can just see Daenerys clutching her head and saying, "Oi."

Do you have any thoughts on the reaction from King's Landing?

On one hand, if Arianne actually goes through with this folly, she will have alerted the entire realm to Daenerys being a legitimate candidate for the throne. But this must also be balanced against the Tyrells and Lannisters having enough problems to be going on with.

They never did manage to break Storm's End and there is even some question if they took Dragonstone. Assuming they were successful with regard to the latter, that still leaves Riverrun, which looks ripe for the taking by the Brotherhood Without Banners, and the Vale, which is nearing boiling point as well. I hasten to add all the stuff going in the North, but I could imagine it being ignored as it always has been, provided Stannis isn't exceedingly successful in his efforts. And of course these is the Faith, which might be the most immediate concern.

My point is, given all that, will King's Landing care all that much if Arianne decides to destroy House Swann? Even if it's done under the name of a rival claimant, it's not as if Stonehelm is particularly crucial.

[Faint]

Therefore, Doran's probable actions if Tommen were to die would be a) give Myrcella back to the Lannisters with some excuse as to why she got hurt or b ) keep Myrcella as a hostage and declare for Dany.

Why would Doran ever do this? If he wants to help Daenerys win the throne, giving Myrcella back would be the worst possible move.

[Queen in the North]

It might keep the Lannisters out of Dorne's business until Dany actually gets to Westeros, and isn't he planning on doing this (or at least some version of it) at the end of AFFC? Forgive me if I'm wrong, I'm only on ACOK in my reread after tearing through the books on my first read. :dunno:

[TrackerNeil]

My point is, given all that, will King's Landing care all that much if Arianne decides to destroy House Swann? Even if it's done under the name of a rival claimant, it's not as if Stonehelm is particularly crucial.

Oh, I imagine Kevin Lannister and whomever else is in charge in KL will care, but the real question is, what can they do about it? With Cersei in dutch with the Faith, the ironmen attacking the Reach, and winter on its way, Lannister options are limited. I imagine Kevan might leave Mace to sort out Stonehelm, which is kinda neat because it drives a bigger wedge between Highgarden and Casterly Rock, and paves the way for the Tyrells to bail when Daenerys finally shows up. I can't say for sure, though.

[Faint]

It might keep the Lannisters out of Dorne's business until Dany actually gets to Westeros, and isn't he planning on doing this (or at least some version of it) at the end of AFFC? Forgive me if I'm wrong, I'm only on ACOK in my reread after tearing through the books on my first read. :dunno:

I don't have recollection of this plan but even so, I would think Tommen dying changes the complexion of the issue greatly. If Daenerys wants to be ruthless, she can have Myrcella murdered and then where are the Lannisters? Who is their claimant then? Not Jaime, not Tyrion, obviously. Cersei? And the Tyrells? They'd probably want to win the throne for themselves at that point. Anyway, that's my point, having Myrcella as a hostage is quite valuable.

[Faint]

Oh, I imagine Kevin Lannister and whomever else is in charge in KL will care, but the real question is, what can they do about it? With Cersei in dutch with the Faith, the ironmen attacking the Reach, and winter on its way, Lannister options are limited. I imagine Kevan might leave Mace to sort out Stonehelm, which is kinda neat because it drives a bigger wedge between Highgarden and Casterly Rock, and paves the way for the Tyrells to bail when Daenerys finally shows up. I can't say for sure, though.

I was thinking that one possible problem with your theory is that Myrcella would not have been crowned from the perspective of Cersei, even if you want to make the case that she was crowned in one form or another. That is to say, shouldn't Cersei perceive the prophecy coming to fruition? So, for example, if words comes down that Myrcella has been killed in Dorne, what will Cersei think? That the prophecy is wrong? That the rest won't come true? That's why I think Myrcella being crowned has to be literal enough that Cersei thinks she has been crowned and that the prophecy is still in effect. Now, that isn't to say that Balon Swann can't come to Dorne, kill Doran and then somehow escape with Myrcella. The rest of your scenario would play out the same from there with Arianne attacking Stonehelm and so on. Thoughts?

[TrackerNeil]

I was thinking that one possible problem with your theory is that Myrcella would not have been crowned from the perspective of Cersei, even if you want to make the case that she was crowned in one form or another. That is to say, shouldn't Cersei perceive the prophecy coming to fruition? So, for example, if words comes down that Myrcella has been killed in Dorne, what will Cersei think? That the prophecy is wrong? That the rest won't come true? That's why I think Myrcella being crowned has to be literal enough that Cersei thinks she has been crowned and that the prophecy is still in effect. Now, that isn't to say that Balon Swann can't come to Dorne, kill Doran and then somehow escape with Myrcella. The rest of your scenario would play out the same from there with Arianne attacking Stonehelm and so on. Thoughts?

Hmm...I had not considered that. Prophecies are vague, and I suppose it's possible that Myrcella could already have been considered crowned by Arianne, illicit as that might have been. Honestly, I'm not sure how to respond to that, but I still like my Dornish FUBAR idea. It's just neat.

[Faint]

Hmm...I had not considered that. Prophecies are vague, and I suppose it's possible that Myrcella could already have been considered crowned by Arianne, illicit as that might have been. Honestly, I'm not sure how to respond to that, but I still like my Dornish FUBAR idea. It's just neat.

But the gist of my argument is that, even if Myrcella had been crowned by Arianne or being "crowned" means something else entirely, Cersei doesn't know any of this. She assumes that Myrcella will be crowned in a literal sense and she doesn't know anything about Arianne's crowning of Myrcella, if that's what it was. I'm thinking that the story has been set up in a way that Cersei will be able to see the prophecy come to fruition -- as with Joffrey -- and in order for this to happen, she will have to think that Myrcella had been crowned before she gets covered with a golden shroud. Otherwise, wouldn't she stop thinking the prophecy is right? And what would be the point of having the trope in the first place if you were later going to do away with it?

[Alexia]

Myrcella is betrothed to Trystane. The Dornish will never return her to the Lannisters - she was the price of the alliance between them (poor Myrcella).

That being said, her fate is very uncertain, given Daenerys' impending invasion. As I think about it, I rather expect her to become a Sansa-like figure. Whereas Sansa was beaten and tormented by her "in-laws," Myrcella's have disfigured her and some of their people would like to see her dead.

Personally, I think they will probably want to use her to gain control of Casterly Rock and that was the reason for the alliance from the start. If Tommen dies, Myrcella is the heir to House Lannister and Cersei will not retain any sort of power at all after Daenerys' return. For Lady Lannister to return to Casterly Rock with her lord husband Trystane Martell (Lord Protector of Casterly Rock*) would be epic irony. The main question is whether or not Daenerys will have her killed to assure her safe hold on the throne, which is a question that I have no answers for.

*Okay, I admit, that was a slightly cruel bit of vengeful thinking. Poor Myrcella.

I'm thinking that the story has been set up in a way that Cersei will be able to see the prophecy come to fruition -- as with Joffrey -- and in order for this to happen, she will have to think that Myrcella had been crowned before she gets covered with a golden shroud. Otherwise, wouldn't she stop thinking the prophecy is right?

Honestly, I think it would be a crap ending if we learn Myrcella's fate now, via contrived prophecy, three books away from the projected ending. I really hope that the prophecy has been misinterpreted - after all, the prophecy of Sansa battling a giant is up for interpretation.

[Faint]

Honestly, I think it would be a crap ending if we learn Myrcella's fate now, via contrived prophecy, three books away from the projected ending. I really hope that the prophecy has been misinterpreted - after all, the prophecy of Sansa battling a giant is up for interpretation.

I hate the prophecy myself -- in fact, I think it's the worst thing in the entire story. If it comes true, not only will we know Myrcella's fate, but Tommen's and Cersei's too. So I'm actually rooting for it to be wrong even if I think it's unlikely.

The fact remains though, if it is true, it seems almost implicit that Cersei would know it's coming true. That being so, I can't see a scenario where Myrcella dies without Cersei thinking she had been crowned.

[Asha—Not Yara!]

I don't think Cersei would have to know about Myrcella's crowning attempt in order for the prophecy to play out. I thought prophecies were foretelling of future events, future events, in my opinion, which may or may not happen (I believe the Stallion that Mounts the World is an example of a prophecy not coming true, so I believe prophecies are fallible).

Otherwise, are you saying if young Cersei hadn't visited Maggy the Frog, Robert's Rebellion wouldn't have happened? Without the rebellion, she wouldn't have married the king and had three children (not with him). That's giving Maggy the Frog an awful lot of power.

[Faint]

I don't think Cersei would have to know about Myrcella's crowning attempt in order for the prophecy to play out. I thought prophecies were foretelling of future events, future events in my opinion which may or may not happen (I believe the Stallion that Mounts the World is an example of a prophecy not coming true so I believe prophecies are fallible).

Otherwise, are you saying if young Cersei hadn't visited Maggy the Frog, Robert's Rebellion wouldn't have happened? Without the rebellion, she wouldn't have married the king and had three children (not with him). That's giving Maggy the Frog an awful lot of power.

What I'm saying, is that I suspect the story has been set up in a way that Cersei will necessarily see the prophecy come to fruition. If Myrcella's crowning attempts counts for her crowing per the prophecy and she is killed before Tommen, wouldn't Cersei start assuming that the prophecy is not true? Is that where the story is going? That seems a little suspect.

[Queen in the North]

@ Melisandra:

I think they were referring to the effectiveness of the literary device, not that Cersei's knowledge of the prophesy affected anything (outside of the way she acted/thought because of it).

@ Alleluia:

You're right, I have no idea what I was thinking when I wrote that post. I doubt Dany would kill Myrcella, though, given her reaction to the dead slave children outside of Meereen.

[ishmael]

She has claim to the throne if tommen dies..

Ok, if she has a claim on the throne, then why isn't Sansa considered the ruler of Winterfell? The reason the Lannisters married Tyrion to Sansa is because her husband would then be ruler of Wintefell, not her. (As everyone believe Bran and Rickon are dead.) This now gives the Lannisters control of two of the 7 kingdoms. It is also the reason Little Finger wants to marry Sansa to the heir of the Vale, so that he can manipulate/have control over both kingdoms. Sansa really doesn't have a claim, but her husband will.

Give another example where a daughter took over as the head of one of the Great Houses or the Kingdom. Women in this society don't have the same rights as they do in Dorne and the crown does not pass to the daughters. The crown reverts back to the next closes/oldest male relative of the last king.

[Queen in the North]

No, it would go to the king's daughter before his brother. Even if she's a puppet claimant and it's her husband who really rules, it's still her throne. And women do have rights. Maege Mormont is the head of her House, and Lysa Arryn ruled the Vale after Jon Arryn died and Sweetrobin was too young to rule. Not to mention Ceersei acting as Tommen and Joffrey's regent, and Lady Tanda Stokeworth, who was head of her house as well. There may not be as many female rulers as male, but they do exist.

[Faint]

It goes to whoever has the larger army as long as the claim is at least plausible.

[guyminuslife]

I hope it's not Doran's death. He just seems like such a cool character who really knows what he is doing. I think that it will be Dorn entering the war fighting for Myrcella's claim to the throne under Dornish law of succession. They will use her as a placeholder till Dany gets there.

I really don't think he does. He thinks long-term, sure. But it's too long term. None of his plans come to fruition because something unexpected happens along the way. The point being, something unexpected will always happen along the way. Gregor Clegane is dead because the Red Viper seized an opportunity that was presented to him, not because he thought 20 moves into the future, but because he was impulsive and rode to King Landing to demand Clegane's head (and the opportunity presented itself). Arianne hates him because he secretly had her engaged to Viserys---and then that plan fell through at Vaes Dothrak. He gets no respect because he's just been sitting there for fifteen years without actually doing anything, thinking that his long-term strategy is going to pan out in the end, when more immediate circumstances make that impossible.

Sure, he might win in the long run. But in the long run, we're all dead.

[Queen in the North]

I was referring to the theory, not the reality. And even someone with no claim whatsoever can win the throne by right-of-conquest, like Aegon the Conqueror.

[Alexia]

Sansa really doesn't have a claim, but her husband will.

That's actually untrue. Sansa is, as the books have pounded through our heads, the heir to House Stark. The Lannisters meant to forcibly take her inheritance from her cloaked in the legality of a marriage, but Winterfell was hers. She might be frogmarched North and surrounded by Lannister men at arms while Tyrion gives commands, but the commands will be in her name.

Give another example where a daughter took over as the head of one of the Great Houses or the Kingdom.

Cersei Lannister is the lady of Casterly Rock, so proclaimed by her male kinsmen. One of her cousins is currently serving as her castellan at the moment. Catelyn Stark was raised as the heir to her father's kingdom for a time. Lysa Arryn spent the first three novels as the Lady Protector of House Arryn at the sufferance of the Arryn bannermen. Lady Shireen is Stannis' acknowleged heir.

The Targaryens did not allow women to claim the crown. Myrcella is not a Targaryen and not tied to Targaryen law. The old kings married their sisters to keep the bloodline pure but Robert and his sons did not follow that Targaryen custom. Why would they follow this one? Especially given that a Targaryen girl herself has decided to overthrow worn out custom and claim the crown in her own name...