Dornish Development (aDwD spoilers)

[Wind and Words]

Could it be Victarion reaching and seducing Daenerys before the Martells (via Quentyn) has a chance to act?

GRRM did say he meant for it to happen towards the end of the book - might be to give Victarion a more believable timeframe to cover the distance.

I could definitely see Doran being prompted into action to stop the union between kraken and dragon. This reaction would then be told through the POV of Quentyn Martell.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Could it be Victarion reaching and seducing Daenerys before the Martells (via Quentyn) has a chance to act?

GRRM did say he meant for it to happen towards the end of the book - might be to give Victarion a more believable timeframe to cover the distance.

I could definitely see Doran being prompted into action to stop the union between kraken and dragon. This reaction would then be told through the POV of Quentyn Martell.

Hmm, I could see an uneasy alliance between Greyjoy and Martell, united under a Targ banner. I don't personally think it's at all likely that Dany would be "seduced" by either Greyjoy brother however.

Also I'm thinking that whatever this development is will be something different. Sure, Quentyn will have to deal with the Greyjoys arriving sooner, but wasn't the Dorne thing supposed to be an event that would force those physically in Dorne (that is, the nation of Dorne) to react? Presumably this news would not have reached any Martell other than Quentyn in the time frame we're talking about.

[Queen in the North]

I don't personally think it's at all likely that Dany would be "seduced" by either Greyjoy brother however.

I disagree. Victarion could very well remind Dany of Drogo, who she loved.

Also I'm thinking that whatever this development is will be something different. Sure, Quentyn will have to deal with the Greyjoys arriving sooner, but wasn't the Dorne thing supposed to be an event that would force those physically in Dorne (that is, the nation of Dorne) to react? Presumably this news would not have reached any Martell other than Quentyn in the time frame we're talking about.

I do agree with this part of your post, though. :)

Edited for spelling.

[TrackerNeil]

I really don't think he does. He thinks long-term, sure. But it's too long term. None of his plans come to fruition because something unexpected happens along the way. The point being, something unexpected will always happen along the way. Gregor Clegane is dead because the Red Viper seized an opportunity that was presented to him, not because he thought 20 moves into the future, but because he was impulsive and rode to King Landing to demand Clegane's head (and the opportunity presented itself). Arianne hates him because he secretly had her engaged to Viserys---and then that plan fell through at Vaes Dothrak. He gets no respect because he's just been sitting there for fifteen years without actually doing anything, thinking that his long-term strategy is going to pan out in the end, when more immediate circumstances make that impossible.

Sure, he might win in the long run. But in the long run, we're all dead.

I'd argue that none of Doran's plans come to fruition because he doesn't do anything to actually make them bear fruit. For more than a decade he nursed a secret plan to wed Viserys to Arianne, but he did nothing to shelter Viserys, or protect him, or make sure he grew up as a man who could actually handle being king. Instead, Doran left him to the whims of whatever archon was sheltering him that week, which left Viserys shamed and unhinged. How the hell does it serve Doran to have Viserys known as the Beggar King?

During this time, is Doran making secret alliances with other lords? Stockpiling weapons and supplies? Placing agents in key positions, who will act when the time is right? If so, there is no sign of it. He's just sitting on his hands, waiting for...I don't know what. Then after Viserys dies, Doran never develops an alternative plan; instead, his strategy moves from "wait for Viserys" to "wait for Daenerys." He's only now sending his son to treat with her, which I'd say is a move that comes awfully late.

Doran's "plans" for vengeance against Tywin Lannister feel more to me like pipe dreams.

[chris.t.]

I'd argue that none of Doran's plans come to fruition because he doesn't do anything to actually make them bear fruit. For more than a decade he nursed a secret plan to wed Viserys to Arianne, but he did nothing to shelter Viserys, or protect him, or make sure he grew up as a man who could actually handle being king. Instead, Doran left him to the whims of whatever archon was sheltering him that week, which left Viserys shamed and unhinged. How the hell does it serve Doran to have Viserys known as the Beggar King?

During this time, is Doran making secret alliances with other lords? Stockpiling weapons and supplies? Placing agents in key positions, who will act when the time is right? If so, there is no sign of it. He's just sitting on his hands, waiting for...I don't know what. Then after Viserys dies, Doran never develops an alternative plan; instead, his strategy moves from "wait for Viserys" to "wait for Daenerys." He's only now sending his son to treat with her, which I'd say is a move that comes awfully late.

Doran's "plans" for vengeance against Tywin Lannister feel more to me like pipe dreams.

What's doubly frustrating about this is that by the time we get the big reveal on Doran's "plans" pretty much everyone that Doran could possibly want to get revenge on is dead. Tywin is dead. Eddard is dead. Robert is dead. Gregor is dead. Lorch is dead. And notably, Doran does not seem to have had anything to do with any of the deaths. So, you've got a maimed Jaime and an exiled Stannis, and that's about it.

With his son betrothed to Myrcella, he's one "accident" befalling Tommen from his house being right back in the precise position it was prior Robert's Rebellion, with instead of his nephew eventually sitting on the Iron Throne it will be his grandson.

EDIT: Based on this thread, people must think I really have it out for Tommen. Not true. I'm quite fond of the little guy.

[TrackerNeil]

What's doubly frustrating about this is that by the time we get the big reveal on Doran's "plans" pretty much everyone that Doran could possibly want to get revenge on is dead. Tywin is dead. Eddard is dead. Robert is dead. Gregor is dead. Lorch is dead. And notably, Doran does not seem to have had anything to do with any of the deaths. So, you've got a maimed Jaime and an exiled Stannis, and that's about it.

I know...it's a riot, isn't it?

I agree with you about Tommen; he seems a decent kid, and it's a shame he's going to die. PDC has a theory that Mace Tyrell is going to kill him to appease Daenerys, much as Tywin did with Rhaeger's children. Ugh.

[Whatever]

PDC has a theory that Mace Tyrell is going to kill him to appease Daenerys, much as Tywin did with Rhaeger's children. Ugh.

like it.

(yep, i don't like tommen. he is useless)

[hnv]

interesting so now dorne will enter the war meaning the vale forces will be the only one untouched from the war and fresh...

could GRRM be setting up some move by the vale forces\LF later on ?

[BladeDancer]

I think House Martell will declare for Dany Targaryen. They hate the Lannisters and have never really forgiven them for the murder of Elia. They just did not act before because they were not in a position to do something about it. Now they are fresh and ready armies whereas the other major factions (apart from the Vale) have been bloodied and weakened from the War of the Five Kings. Plus Dorne now has Myrcella Lannister (Baratheon in name) as a hostage.

They sought reparations from the Lannisters and all they actually got was another dead Dornish Prince.

Up to now, everyone has been thinking the Dornish are craven and keeping out of the fighting. Instead they have just been waiting for the right moment to strike. Dorne has to play a more significant role in the storyline because up to now they have done too little.

[Faint]

I'm conflicted over how this will all play out in general since I'm convinced Daenerys is going to be coming back with the Ironborn, willingly or not, and married at that. The prophecy at the House of the Undying I think is suggestive enough on that account: "A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright on his dead face, gray lips smiling sadly." Unless someone wants to suggest that corpse is either Quentyn Martell or Aurane Waters.

What this means, if I'm right, is that Quentyn's quest will end in failure. How this will affect what Dorne does in the long term I have no clue. If Quentyn ends up dying, then things get even messier, especially if, as many have suggested, Arianne has already declared for Daenerys.

Then there are all these plot wildcards to factor in. Tyrion Lannister foremost among them. I can't imagine George killing him off anytime in the future and he has to return to Westeros one way or another. I begin to wonder whether he comes back with the Ironborn as well, maybe even as a hostage to pursue a flimsy claim to Casterly Rock.

[chris.t.]

I'm conflicted over how this will all play out in general since I'm convinced Daenerys is going to be coming back with the Ironborn, willingly or not, and married at that. The prophecy at the House of the Undying I think is suggestive enough on that account: "A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright on his dead face, gray lips smiling sadly." Unless someone wants to suggest that corpse is either Quentyn Martell or Aurane Waters.

How about Marwyn the Mage?

Who among the candidates has a reason to smile sadly? Could it be a reference to Aemon Targaryen's death on the boat after learning of Dany's dragons? It refers to "bright eyes." That doesn't seem to fit Aemon, unless maybe it refers to him "seeing" the truth of Dany being the PtwP.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

To be clear, that theory about the Tyrells killing Tommen is something I heard Ran propose years ago. And my favorite culprit is Olenna Tyrell, who has already shown herself adept at the tactical use of regicide.

What this means, if I'm right, is that Quentyn's quest will end in failure. How this will affect what Dorne does in the long term I have no clue. If Quentyn ends up dying, then things get even messier, especially if, as many have suggested, Arianne has already declared for Daenerys.

I think you might be overstating this. If Daenerys makes an alliance with the ironborn (which I agree is likely), then that doesn't prevent Dorne from also being a Targaryen ally. It would be a blow to Prince Doran's dynastic ambitions, but he could still have the satisfaction of seeing the Lannisters unseated.

[Faint]

How about Marwyn the Mage?

Who among the candidates has a reason to smile sadly? Could it be a reference to Aemon Targaryen's death on the boat after learning of Dany's dragons? It refers to "bright eyes." That doesn't seem to fit Aemon, unless maybe it refers to him "seeing" the truth of Dany being the PtwP.

To be fair, I'm teetering on my Ironborn prediction. I've long thought the corpse was Euron but does smiling sadly suit him? The more I think on it, the only thing that makes one think of the Ironborn from the prophecy is the presence of the ship and the gray lips, which might directly allude to Euron but might not. Yes, he has blue lips, which is close enough to gray, but then again, wouldn't any corpse have gray lips eventually, especially a drowned one?

Thinking it's Euron is certainly easy though. He's associated with ships. He has strange colored lips and lips are specifically addressed in the prophecy. He also has the intention of marrying Daenerys and the plot is moving in a direction where he possibly can. But I have to say, I'm a lot more sure about her third husband being Jon than her second husband being Euron.

My brother has a further reason why he thinks it's Euron but it requires knowledge of the spoilers to ADwD:

Basically, the spoilers establish that someone can be wed to someone else and not be present at the wedding (i.e., Asha Greyjoy and Erik Anvil-Breaker). From this, he theorizes that Daenerys will marry Euron, even though the latter will not be present. Whether Victarion will be appeased, thwarted, or killed in all this, he doesn't have a clue. In any case, Daenerys will be "dreading" Euron the whole trip back to Westeros. Only, by the time she gets there, Euron will have been supplanted and killed by Theon/Asha -- hence, the corpse, blue lips, etc. I say this is a little convoluted but I thought it was worth mention.

[Faint]

I think you might be overstating this. If Daenerys makes an alliance with the ironborn (which I agree is likely), then that doesn't prevent Dorne from also being a Targaryen ally. It would be a blow to Prince Doran's dynastic ambitions, but he could still have the satisfaction of seeing the Lannisters unseated.

I'm open to the possibility, although, if Quentyn dies and the Ironborn are somehow responsible, it does get messy.

[ishmael]

That's actually untrue. Sansa is, as the books have pounded through our heads, the heir to House Stark. The Lannisters meant to forcibly take her inheritance from her cloaked in the legality of a marriage, but Winterfell was hers. She might be frogmarched North and surrounded by Lannister men at arms while Tyrion gives commands, but the commands will be in her name.

Cersei Lannister is the lady of Casterly Rock, so proclaimed by her male kinsmen. One of her cousins is currently serving as her castellan at the moment. Catelyn Stark was raised as the heir to her father's kingdom for a time. Lysa Arryn spent the first three novels as the Lady Protector of House Arryn at the sufferance of the Arryn bannermen. Lady Shireen is Stannis' acknowleged heir.

The Targaryens did not allow women to claim the crown. Myrcella is not a Targaryen and not tied to Targaryen law. The old kings married their sisters to keep the bloodline pure but Robert and his sons did not follow that Targaryen custom. Why would they follow this one? Especially given that a Targaryen girl herself has decided to overthrow worn out custom and claim the crown in her own name...

Actually, she is not the heir to Winterfell. The heir is whoever Robb named, and he named someone because she did not have a claim. She never came into the discussion between Cat and Robb concerning the heir. Lisa and Cersei are acting a regents until their sons come of age, then they will take whatever role the sons say they have.

[Faint]

Actually, she is not the heir to Winterfell. The heir is whoever Robb named, and he named someone because she did not have a claim. She never came into the discussion between Cat and Robb concerning the heir. Lisa and Cersei are acting a regents until their sons come of age, then they will take whatever role the sons say they have.

I think you're misinterpreting matters. Had Robb died before naming a heir and with his wife not pregnant, then Sansa would be the presumed heir. Even this would be wrong, of course, because Bran and Rickon are still alive, but few know that. If Jon was indeed named heir by Robb, then he is actually the legal Lord of Winterfell right now, as far as the laws of the North are concerned. But that's another matter entirely. As of now, the situation looks like this to me:

In regard to common knowledge, most people assume this:

1. Sansa
   
2. Uncertain
   

In regard to what is actually the case, the line goes like this:

1. Jon
   
2. Bran
   
3. Rickon
   
4. Sansa
   
5. Arya
   

[Asha—Not Yara!]

@ Melisandra:

I think they were referring to the effectiveness of the literary device, not that Cersei's knowledge of the prophesy affected anything (outside of the way she acted/thought because of it).

Ah okay. I still think it would be an effective literary device from the reader's perspective even if Cersei is unaware of how all of it played out. For example I could see Myrcella's botched crowning count in terms of the prophecy, and the shroud she wears isn't necessarily her death shroud, but a shroud she uses to obscure her scarred face. Even if Cersei never learns of the botched crowning of her daughter, I think it still works fine. It could also be interesting if Cersei's lead to falsely believe that her daughter is dead, just as Catelyn was lead to believe Bran and Rickon were dead though I'm not sure how that'd work out as the story is currently.

[Faint]

Ah okay. I still think it would be an effective literary device from the reader's perspective even if Cersei is unaware of how all of it played out. For example I could see Myrcella's botched crowning count in terms of the prophecy, and the shroud she wears isn't necessarily her death shroud, but a shroud she uses to obscure her scarred face. Even if Cersei never learns of the botched crowning of her daughter, I think it still works fine. It could also be interesting if Cersei's lead to falsely believe that her daughter is dead, just as Catelyn was lead to believe Bran and Rickon were dead though I'm not sure how that'd work out as the story is currently.

I suppose, but then everything would play out very differently. Cersei would go around assuming that the prophecy is not in effect and she'd lose her fear of Tyrion, presumably. I just doubt that's where the story is going.

[Asha—Not Yara!]

I don't think she'd lose her fear of Tyrion as long as he's out there and not caught. Her not knowing about Myrcella could give her a false sense of security that would make her not see her murderer coming and surprising her. I think there's different ways it could play out. We'll just have to see. I'm just hoping it doesn't play out in a straight forward manner, or else it'd be rather disappointing and a bit dull to me.

[SamanthaofHodorsfield]

Actually, she is not the heir to Winterfell. The heir is whoever Robb named, and he named someone because she did not have a claim. She never came into the discussion between Cat and Robb concerning the heir. Lisa and Cersei are acting a regents until their sons come of age, then they will take whatever role the sons say they have.

Actually, didn't he name somebody else because Sansa -did- have a claim, and through the forced marriage to Tyrion, would mean that Winterfell would fall into the hands of the Lannisters and wanted to do everything possible to prevent that; hence denying his sister what was rightfully* hers.

*I say rightfully because at that time, he assumes that all the other Stark children are dead, save Sansa and Jon.