[ADwD Spoilers] Quaithe's Prophecy

[Sun]

I'm inclined to agree with those who think that Mummer's Dragon in the prophecy should be interpreted with the "s" as a possessive of the singular noun mummer, ie. Aegon is the Targaryan put forward by the mummer Varys. So Aegon, I think, is the real deal.

My evidence: Varys tells a dying Kevan that Aegon is the true born son of Rhaegar. And I see no reason why Varys would find it necessary to lie to a dying man?

[Lord Varys]

The 'mummer's dragon' is the phrase used to describe the cloth dragon Daenerys sees in the Houses of the Undying. There he is a dragon on a pole, paraded before a group of followers, and appears together with the King without shadow, who apparently is also going to be dealt with by Daenerys as the 'Slayer of Lies'.

This cloth dragon is later described as a 'mummer's dragon' by Daenerys, when she tells Jorah about her visions. From that onwards the cloth dragon is never mentioned again. We only hear talk about the 'mummer's dragon'.

And this whole prophecy does not refer to royal blood, the line of succession, or the claim to the Iron Throne of Westeros. It refers to Daenerys's role as savior, to her prophesied fate to be Azor Ahai, the promised prince, or whatever hero she is supposed to be (that she is some prophesied hero cannot be doubted, I imagine).

Stannis is, as we all know, a legitimate Baratheon but not Azor Ahai. He is a lie she is supposed to slay. Aegon might as well be a legitimate Targaryen, but not Azor Ahai. Which might indicate that there people out there who will believe that he is a prophesied here, or are already believing it. That Rhaegar thought he was the savior - and that we saw a vision of that way back in ACoK - might actually become an important plot point in the future.

By the way, Quaithe never made any prophecies in my opinion. She just saw the people who were on their way to Meereen in her glass candle and told Dany about them. She made an observation about the present, not a prediction about the future. That's why the mummer's dragon never arrived at Meereen. She did not know/foresee what would happen at Volantis.

But I admit that it is strange/weird that Quaithe would use the phrase 'mummer's dragon'. Does she know about the connection between Varys and Aegon? Or does she know about the cloth dragon and the way Dany described it to Jorah? But even then, she herself must have connected that description with whatever pictures she saw in her glass candle. Either the face of Aegon and Varys/a mummer, or the same/a similar cloth dragon Dany saw.

[Dragonfish]

My evidence: Varys tells a dying Kevan that Aegon is the true born son of Rhaegar. And I see no reason why Varys would find it necessary to lie to a dying man?

This has been addressed many, many times already. Just go to the "Young Griff 2" thread and see the counterarguments.

[Lord Varys]

Well, Varys's voice gets darker when he starts to talk about Aegon. I know that he never says Aegon is Rhaegar's son explicitly, but, well, he implies as much. And back in AGoT/ACoK Varys's voice changes strangely as well when he tells the true stories about his past (or, at least the common theories are that he tells the truth when he talks about his time as a mummer and the way he was castrated).

So my guess is that he really tells the truth when he talks to Kevan. It is still possible that Aegon is false, I do not doubt that, but the whole stuff about his motivation and his goal is likely the truth. But it is not yet the whole truth. On the other hand, using a false Aegon would be a rather risky enterprise - and that alone is evidence enough for me that Aegon most likely is genuine.

If Aegon needs to marry Daenerys - a real Targaryen beyond a doubt - then why marry that Targaryen off to Khal Drogo. It was happy coincidence that Dany survived the Dothraki Sea and the things that followed (Varys helped her from afar, yes, by sending her Barristan and all, but her survival could not guaranteed). But Aegon was the real deal. He is at the heart of Varys's plan. So if he was false and is in need of a marriage to a real Targaryen to wash away any doubts about his claim and identity, why did they not preserve Daenerys for Aegon in the first place?

That they did not is another indication that Varys/Illyrio did not think originally that Aegon would need the Targaryen siblings. They were tools, a smokescreen the Baratheon regime would turn against. Aegon's role was always to come back to Westeros in the end as its savior.

[KingPodrickTheFirst]

I always thought the perfumed seneschal could be varys. He is a steward of sorts, and his perfumes are often mentioned, he is definitely not to be trusted and it would fit GRRMs habit if doing unexpected things.

[Dragonfish]

Well, Varys's voice gets darker when he starts to talk about Aegon. I know that he never says Aegon is Rhaegar's son explicitly, but, well, he implies as much. And back in AGoT/ACoK Varys's voice changes strangely as well when he tells the true stories about his past (or, at least the common theories are that he tells the truth when he talks about his time as a mummer and the way he was castrated).

So my guess is that he really tells the truth when he talks to Kevan.

Yes, but as you say, Varys never technically lies in this scene. He only suggests that Aegon is Rhaegar's son in the same manner that Ned suggested to Robert that Wylla was Jon's mother: by addressing only one of Kevan's assumptions (that Aegon is dead) while letting the listener(s) suppose that he addressed the other assumption (that this Aegon is Rhaegar's son).

On the other hand, using a false Aegon would be a rather risky enterprise...

I've never understood this argument. All of Varys' schemes are risky to some degree. Playing the game of thrones is inherently risky. The only real risk is that someone will find out that YG is not truly Aegon, but seeing as how there's no magical Targ-detection system that Varys is aware of, I'm not sure why he would expect anyone to definitively prove it.

If Aegon needs to marry Daenerys - a real Targaryen beyond a doubt - then why marry that Targaryen off to Khal Drogo. It was happy coincidence that Dany survived the Dothraki Sea and the things that followed (Varys helped her from afar, yes, by sending her Barristan and all, but her survival could not guaranteed). But Aegon was the real deal. He is at the heart of Varys's plan. So if he was false and is in need of a marriage to a real Targaryen to wash away any doubts about his claim and identity, why did they not preserve Daenerys for Aegon in the first place?

You could ask the same question even if YG really were Rhaegar's son. IIRC, people in the story are already suspecting he's fake, so surely Varys' scheme would benefit from marrying YG to Dany so that he leaves no doubt, even if YG really were Aegon.

That they did not is another indication that Varys/Illyrio did not think originally that Aegon would need the Targaryen siblings. They were tools, a smokescreen the Baratheon regime would turn against. Aegon's role was always to come back to Westeros in the end as its savior.

Perhaps. But again, this could be true whether or not Aegon is fake.

[Lord Varys]

That is right. But, yeah, well, the question remains why Dany was not preserved to become Aegon's queen. And to the risk of Varys's schemes: We don't really know that. His only risky scheme is the Aegon-plan, and that plan is nearly two decades old. I very much doubt Varys would have hatched it after the real Aegon died. If Aegon is dead, then I'm sure he died of the Grey Plague with Serra in Pentos after Varys had saved him.

Since Varys does seldom lie explicitly in direct conversation it would feel strange if he would hatch such complicated and risky plan with an imposter. Say, what if Aegon's facial features would have shown not the slightest resemblance to Rhaegar and Elia when he reached adolescence? To such a degree that not even Connington would have been fooled (considering that he wants to believe a lie, and I'm not sure about that).

Since they work with a babe, this could have happened. In such a complicated plan you have to minimize the risks as much as possible. And using the real deal would have been one of the factors Varys and Illyrio could control. The deaths of Viserys, Drogo, and Blackheart were none of these factors. Nor Dany's decision to stay at Meereen.

And although the risk might be small that a fake Aegon would be revealed as such - if there are people out there who know the truth, it might be become known. So the risk is there. And that's why I would not work with a false Aegon. But I admit that it is possible. But if he is false, then this over-complicated Illyrio-Varys-Blackfyre-theory becomes more likely, as we have to get a reason why Varys did not, in fact, save the real Aegon. He had any chance to do so, after all.

And I must say I would not like that all that much.

[Sun]

This has been addressed many, many times already. Just go to the "Young Griff 2" thread and see the counterarguments.

Is there a particular theory you would like me to check out? Because I haven't seen anything in that thread or any other that convincingly explains why Varys would lie.

[Dragonfish]

That is right. But, yeah, well, the question remains why Dany was not preserved to become Aegon's queen.

Yes, this is something that I hope George answers at some point. I suspect the reason was something you mentioned: Dany and Viserys were the distraction, Aegon was the main plan.

Since Varys does seldom lie explicitly in direct conversation...

How do we know this again?

...it would feel strange if he would hatch such complicated and risky plan with an imposter. Say, what if Aegon's facial features would have shown not the slightest resemblance to Rhaegar and Elia when he reached adolescence? To such a degree that not even Connington would have been fooled (considering that he wants to believe a lie, and I'm not sure about that).

Well, as I've said before, people see what they want to see. Aegon has the silver hair and violet eyes, I think that would be enough to convince most of Westeros. The only real sticking point is Jon Connington, but I think he especially needs to believe YG is Aegon, for his own sake (I know you've already expressed your skepticism on this point, but I just thought it ought to be reiterated all the same).

Since they work with a babe, this could have happened.

I'm not sure we know when they gave him to Jon Connington, though (unless I'm misremembering). He could have been about 6 or 7 when they decided to hand him off, at which point they would have known how his features were developing.

In such a complicated plan you have to minimize the risks as much as possible. And using the real deal would have been one of the factors Varys and Illyrio could control. The deaths of Viserys, Drogo, and Blackheart were none of these factors. Nor did Dany's decision to stay at Meereen.

Well, it's possible they preferred using "the son of Rhaegar" as a puppet rather than "the son of the Mad King" (it's also possible they wanted a home-grown monarch that they could control more easily). Also, I don't think they were ever especially impressed with Viserys or Daenerys (at least when they met them, there's still the question of why they never contacted them earlier).

And although the risk might be small that a fake Aegon would be revealed as such - if there are people out there who know the truth, it might be become known.

That's a might big "if". Perhaps Varys and Illyrio are the only ones who know the truth, in which case the odds of someone revealing it are vanishingly small.

But I admit that it is possible.

Yes, and I admit that it is also possible that Aegon is the real deal. But given how little foreshadowing was done before we met him, it would just seem strange to me if this turned out to be the case.

[Dragonfish]

Is there a particular theory you would like me to check out? Because I haven't seen anything in that thread or any other that convincingly explains why Varys would lie.

Well, if you checked out that thread then you probably saw the following points, but I'll re-iterate them so you have something specific to argue against (rather than giving a vague "I'm not convinced" line)

1. Varys never actually lies in this scene. You said in your post that "Varys tells Kevan that Aegon is the trueborn son of Rhaegar," but this is simply not true. Varys mentions Aegon, Kevan says he's dead, then Varys says, "No. He is here," which is technically true whether or not this Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

2. There is precedent for characters lying even when they would have no reason to. as with Sansa and Littlefinger, Varys may simply have a policy of never revealing the truth to anyone, to minimize the risk that he lets the truth slip to the wrong ears.

3. Varys is not alone in the room with Kevan. His little birds are there, and are presumably within earshot. I see no reason why Varys would risk allowing such an important truth to get out by letting his little birds in on it.

[RedDeath]

I don't see why that would make a difference. Victarion clearly has no intention of bringing her back to Euron. He and Young Griff probably share more common motive than Young Griff shares with Quentyn. I can't imagine that Young Griff isn't the mummer's dragon, but I don't know why he isn't grouped with Connington and Tyrion.

I think a better question is, why was she told to trust none of them? In regards to what? Quentyn was not especially untrustworthy, and Tyrion didn't appear to have ill-intentions, either. So why no trust?

Quentin was not malignant, but if she had trusted him and run off and married him as he wanted then it could have lead to ruin. Similarly, Tyrion may genuinely try to help her, but if she takes his advice it will lead to death and destruction.

Overall, I think the mummer's dragon is probably Aegon right now. However, it is likely, albeit not required, that this means that none of the mentioned characters are a part of the 3 headed dragon which leaves a slot open based on most theories (Jon, Dany, ???).

[RedDeath]

Aegon could be the son of Rhaegar and still not be a dragon. Viserys by blood was every bit one as Dany was, but he clearly was not in the end.

[Sun]

Well, if you checked out that thread then you probably saw the following points, but I'll re-iterate them so you have something specific to argue against (rather than giving a vague "I'm not convinced" line)

1. Varys never actually lies in this scene. You said in your post that "Varys tells Kevan that Aegon is the trueborn son of Rhaegar," but this is simply not true. Varys mentions Aegon, Kevan says he's dead, then Varys says, "No. He is here," which is technically true whether or not this Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

2. There is precedent for characters lying even when they would have no reason to. as with Sansa and Littlefinger, Varys may simply have a policy of never revealing the truth to anyone, to minimize the risk that he lets the truth slip to the wrong ears.

3. Varys is not alone in the room with Kevan. His little birds are there, and are presumably within earshot. I see no reason why Varys would risk allowing such an important truth to get out by letting his little birds in on it.

1- When Kevan says "He's dead" he is referring to Aegon, the babe, the true born son of Rhaegar, to which Varys replies "No. He's here". That to me reads as Varys saying that the real Aegon, the babe in question, is a live and in town.

2- This is a bit of stretch. Varys is as expert lier, he's not a rookie like Sansa that needs to be trained into the art. Also, why bother explaining anything to Kevan if it's not the truth? He just killed the man, the only reason to tell him anything would be as a feeble attempt by Varys to alleviate his guilt at killing a man he respected, in which case lying to him would defeat the purpose.

3- You mean the same children who just helped butcher Pycell, witnessed Varys crossbow Kevan, and were about to go all children of the corn on Kevan's ass, those children? I don't think so. They know a lot already, just from that one scene. They are his creatures.

[Dragonfish]

1- When Kevan says "He's dead" he is referring to Aegon, the babe, the true born son of Rhaegar, to which Varys replies "No. He's here". That to me reads as Varys saying that the real Aegon, the babe in question, is a live and in town.

That's what Varys leads him to assume, yes. But he never states it outright, which gives this scene some flexibility.

2- This is a bit of stretch. Varys is as expert lier, he's not a rookie like Sansa that needs to be trained into the art. Also, why bother explaining anything to Kevan if it's not the truth? He just killed the man, the only reason to tell him anything would be as a feeble attempt by Varys to alleviate his guilt at killing a man he respected, in which case lying to him would defeat the purpose.

An expert liar may very well become an expert liar by adopting the policy that Littlefinger proposes to Sansa. Even he calls her Alayne, after all. Is it your contention that Littlefinger is not an expert liar?

3- You mean the same children who just helped butcher Pycell, witnessed Varys crossbow Kevan, and were about to go all children of the corn on Kevan's ass, those children? I don't think so. They know a lot already, just from that one scene. They are his creatures.

Yes, as Vargo Hoat was Tywin's creature, or Roose Bolton was Robb's creature. What you're basically saying is that Varys can trust these little kids, which is ludicrous. In the game of thrones, you trust no one.

[Sun]

That's what Varys leads him to assume, yes. But he never states it outright, which gives this scene some flexibility.

Not so much flexibility as to lead me to think that he meant an entirely different Aegon.

An expert liar may very well become an expert liar by adopting the policy that Littlefinger proposes to Sansa. Even he calls her Alayne, after all. Is it your contention that Littlefinger is not an expert liar?

Why tell Kevan anything if he's gonna lie? What was the purpose of that monologue then? Was there someone in that room not dead or dying that he's trying to fool?

Yes, as Vargo Hoat was Tywin's creature, or Roose Bolton was Robb's creature. What you're basically saying is that Varys can trust these little kids, which is ludicrous. In the game of thrones, you trust no one.

There's a big difference between Hoat or Roose serving a lord for mutual interest and Varys' relationship with these children. These kids spend their days in dark tunnels spying for him, we just saw them killing for him, and lying for him, and they've concealing his whereabouts all this time. They are "his" creatures in every sense of the word. These kids are "his little birds" & throughout the whole series we've been left with little doubt that whoever these birds are, they are his, and only his.

Aegon may well turn out to be a false Dragon, but based on this scene, and at this time, I'm willing to bet he's the real deal.

[bacchys]

I'm inclined to agree with those who think that Mummer's Dragon in the prophecy should be interpreted with the "s" as a possessive of the singular noun mummer, ie. Aegon is the Targaryan put forward by the mummer Varys. So Aegon, I think, is the real deal.

My evidence: Varys tells a dying Kevan that Aegon is the true born son of Rhaegar. And I see no reason why Varys would find it necessary to lie to a dying man?

I agree. The Dragon is the mummer's, not the mummer. It's the Mummer's Dragon, not the Mummer Dragon...

[Ygritte's fur]

I agree that the mummer's dragon isn't necessarily "grouped" with the son's sun. I think it's just punctuation: the first two pairs are grouped by punctuation and plot, but the dragon and son are each preceded by a "the" to mark that they are separate entities and there is no use of an Oxford comma.

[Ygritte's fur]

And ooh. I also like the notion that this is the, singular, i.e., Varys', dragon.

[Dragonfish]

Not so much flexibility as to lead me to think that he meant an entirely different Aegon.

Well, can you point me to the spot where Varys says he's referring to the Aegon who was Rhaegar's son?

Again, Varys simply says "Aegon", which is technically the boy's name. He allows Kevan to assume he's talking about Rhaegar's son. Then when Kevan says, "he's dead," and Varys says, "no, he's here," he once again allows Kevan to assume he's talking about Rhaegar's son. At no point does anyone in the room specify which Aegon they are talking about. So technically, Varys never lies, except through omission. It's the same sort of lie that Ned presumably told when he said "Her name was Wylla" to Robert.

Why tell Kevan anything if he's gonna lie? What was the purpose of that monologue then? Was there someone in that room not dead or dying that he's trying to fool?

Well, again, his little birds were there.

As to the monologue, he was gloating. That's true whether or not YG is actually Rhaegar's son.

There's a big difference between Hoat or Roose serving a lord for mutual interest and Varys' relationship with these children. These kids spend their days in dark tunnels spying for him, we just saw them killing for him, and lying for him, and they've concealing his whereabouts all this time. They are "his" creatures in every sense of the word. These kids are "his little birds" & throughout the whole series we've been left with little doubt that whoever these birds are, they are his, and only his.

It's ludicrous to suppose that Varys would allow his creatures to know such a massively important secret. The more people who know a secret, the harder it is to keep it secret. And as far as he knows, any one of them might betray him at some point.

[pow]

As stupid as it sounds Mummers can only be possessive. I don't completely understand or agree that it must be Varys and Illyrio's Dragon but what else could it mean. It would be better / cleaner if it was the Mummer Dragon which means hes not a real dragon. But he does have the hair and the eyes. Also, the story fits. I still have a bad feeling about what this means.