[ADwD Spoilers] Quaithe's Prophecy

[illuminatia]

Then why did you quote my post and add, "Well, the actual sun doesn't have actual sons either. Nor does a big fat wet kraken hobble ashore to come see Dany. Metaphors and riddles, ambiguous and tricky." It seemed to me that you were trying to disagree with me. So if you weren't, then what exactly was your point?

Well obviously I was not making myself clear, and I was agreeing with you on the mummer's dragon. Just as the kraken is an actual thing used as a metaphor, the mummer's dragon is (just as you said) an actual thing with an as yet not completely clear symbolic meaning, I really don't expect to see a paper dragon showing up anywhere soon. But it's hard to tell what these symbols stand for.

[ultima]

I also think there wont be a straight forward meaning to this prophecy!

Its quite odd that Varys would support a fake dragon!! He says "for the good of the realm".

Nothing good would come out, when the truth comes out. Aegon has to be true dragon to make story complicated.

May be Quaithe herself need to be trusted completely. What hidden agenda she may have to play?! who knows :ohwell:

[ultima]

I beleive "mummer's dragon" not necessarily mean a fake dragon. It should be interpreted as Vary's dragon. Here the dragon is not the mummer but the dragon was raised with help of the mummer! :smoking:

[father of craster]

Perhapes Aegon is the Mummer's Dragon, and still who he says he is. If Varys is the murmmer, and he set up the rise of Aegon then in a sense Aegon, while still being a Targ, is in fact a Mummer's dragon. Vary's dragon.

Everyone assumed Mummer's dragon means a fake dragon, but it could just be possesive. The dragon belonging to the mummer.

The word "mummer" is used to describe the actors and performers in this world. I don't recall it ever being used to describe someone as "fake". It implies the possesive. Therefore, Varys dragon. In no way does it imply, that Aegon is not a Targ.

[Lord Varys]

As to Varys keeping secret from the birds:

That makes little sense. They are his tools to gain knowledge. They know all he knows, and the very nature of his spy system makes it impossible for them to be ignorant about much. They are also supposed to be mute due to the fact that Illyrio cuts their tongues out before he delivers them to Varys, so there would be no risk in telling them about Aegon.

Especially as I'm rather sure that they cannot write properly, but only in a code Varys understands (we know that Jorah wrote his letters to Varys in a code). So even if a bird would want to betray Varys, he would not be able to do so.

There might be birds out there who can speak, but that's conjecture and we have actually no evidence for it. The boy who went to Maegor's Holdfast and lured Kevan into the trap, did not speak. He might have just given a written message to Trant who guarded the drawbridge. And Kevan only sees the girl from Pycelle's chambers in the end, not the boy on the ward, so I'm rather sure now that the birds who are with Varys at Pycelle's are all mute.

They can't betray him, they can't tell any secrets, and that's why he could have talked about Aegon being a fake.

[khalakama]

I suppose the lion could br Tywin's brother, Gerion(sp?)

[Sun]

Well, can you point me to the spot where Varys says he's referring to the Aegon who was Rhaegar's son?

Again, Varys simply says "Aegon", which is technically the boy's name. He allows Kevan to assume he's talking about Rhaegar's son. Then when Kevan says, "he's dead," and Varys says, "no, he's here," he once again allows Kevan to assume he's talking about Rhaegar's son. At no point does anyone in the room specify which Aegon they are talking about. So technically, Varys never lies, except through omission. It's the same sort of lie that Ned presumably told when he said "Her name was Wylla" to Robert.

Kevan was specifically referring to Rhaegar's son, and Varys was replying to Kevan. Why allow Kevan to assume anything?? What difference does it make what Kevan thinks now?

Well, again, his little birds were there.

As to the monologue, he was gloating. That's true whether or not YG is actually Rhaegar's son.

Gloating? That's the reasoning the 2 penny novelvillan monologue? Gloating?! I think not. For gloating to work as a rational there would have to have been a personal rivalry & animosity between the 2 characters. No such rivalry exists between Kevan and Varys. It doesn't wash as motivation. To Varys, Kevan was an obstacle to his aims, it's not personal, it's business, so where's the satisfaction in gloating over a pebble in your way that you just kicked aside without breaking a sweat?

A far more believable motivation would be remorse over killing such a minor player in the game, who in himself, is not important enough to merit such an end.

It's ludicrous to suppose that Varys would allow his creatures to know such a massively important secret. The more people who know a secret, the harder it is to keep it secret. And as far as he knows, any one of them might betray him at some point.

No it's really not. lol Trust no one maybe good advice, but it's nigh on impossible for anyone to achieve. it seems clear to me that Varys owns those kids heart, body and soul. HIs little birds have certainly earned his trust

What's ludicrous is to assume that Martin would insert such an awkwardly set monologue/revelation (and it was an awkward scene, imo) simply as authorial misdirection & with utter disregard to character motivation. It's such a cheap trick, somewhat on par of pulling a coin out of our ear, that, for me at least, it would infect the credulity of all other characters in ASIOAF form now on.

For now, I will stick with believing that YG is the real thing.

[Sun]

Well, can you point me to the spot where Varys says he's referring to the Aegon who was Rhaegar's son?

Again, Varys simply says "Aegon", which is technically the boy's name. He allows Kevan to assume he's talking about Rhaegar's son. Then when Kevan says, "he's dead," and Varys says, "no, he's here," he once again allows Kevan to assume he's talking about Rhaegar's son. At no point does anyone in the room specify which Aegon they are talking about. So technically, Varys never lies, except through omission. It's the same sort of lie that Ned presumably told when he said "Her name was Wylla" to Robert.

Kevan was specifically referring to Rhaegar's son, and Varys was replying to Kevan. Why allow Kevan to assume anything?? What difference does it make what Kevan thinks now?

Well, again, his little birds were there.

As to the monologue, he was gloating. That's true whether or not YG is actually Rhaegar's son.

Gloating? That's the reasoning the 2-penny-novel villain monologue? Gloating?! I think not. For gloating to work as a rational there would have to have been a personal rivalry & animosity between the 2 characters. No such rivalry exists between Kevan and Varys. It doesn't wash as motivation. To Varys, Kevan was an a mere obstacle to his aims. It's not personal, it's business. So where's the satisfaction in gloating over a pebble in your way that you just kicked aside without breaking a sweat?

A far more believable motivation would be remorse over killing such a minor player in the game, who in himself, is not important enough to merit such an end.

It's ludicrous to suppose that Varys would allow his creatures to know such a massively important secret. The more people who know a secret, the harder it is to keep it secret. And as far as he knows, any one of them might betray him at some point.

No it's really not. lol Trust no one maybe good advice, but it's nigh on impossible for anyone to achieve. it seems clear to me that Varys owns those kids heart, body and soul. HIs little birds have certainly earned his trust

What's ludicrous is to assume that Martin would insert such an awkwardly set monologue/revelation (and it was an awkward scene, imo) simply as authorial misdirection & with utter disregard to character motivation. It's such a cheap trick, somewhat on par of pulling a coin out of our ear, that, for me at least, it would infect the credulity of all other characters in ASIOAF form now on.

For now, I will stick with believing that YG is the real Aegon.

[Recently]

I still believe hes real. Martin puts the tiniest amount of doubt in our minds so that we have something to argue about for the next 3+ years until the next book comes out lol.

It wouldn't be as fun if he just said YES HES REAL DO NOT DOUBT ME.

Same way hes tickling our collective balls with Jon's fate.

I'm going to assume YG is Aegon until proven otherwise. Some of these theories such as that he's Varys's kid (and that varys's isn't a eunuch)or illyiro's kid are somewhat far fetched.

Also I don't believe "mummers dragon" means hes fake. Just like the Sun's Son (Sun = doran and/or dorne itself) mummer = varys, as in Aegon is the dragon that varys has been backing since the beginning (which is true, hes planned out Aegon's growth since he was a child, whereas dany kinda was an unexpected surprise with her dragons)

[akpov]

Perhapes Aegon is the Mummer's Dragon, and still who he says he is. If Varys is the murmmer, and he set up the rise of Aegon then in a sense Aegon, while still being a Targ, is in fact a Mummer's dragon. Vary's dragon.

Everyone assumed Mummer's dragon means a fake dragon, but it could just be possesive. The dragon belonging to the mummer.

What he said. I think he is the real deal,,,, Vary's dragon.

[Lord Godric]

I think the biggest nail in Aegon's coffin comes from Tyrion. Tyrion reflects a few times that the prophecies don't speak of two dragons, simply one. It seems to me that Tyrion may be speculating if Young Griff is the real deal. That combined with the mummer's dragon is enough for me to think Griff isnt the real Aegon.

[Prince Rhaegar]

Didn't the original version of this chapter (which George read at a con) have Quaithe saying "crow and kraken" rather than "kraken and dark flame"? I wonder who that was meant to reference...

If this is true it immediately makes me think of Jon Snow. "Crow" fits and if he is a Targ, AA, and/or PTWP, as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch he would be a "dark flame."

[merchantkingpriest]

I think the biggest nail in Aegon's coffin comes from Tyrion. Tyrion reflects a few times that the prophecies don't speak of two dragons, simply one. It seems to me that Tyrion may be speculating if Young Griff is the real deal. That combined with the mummer's dragon is enough for me to think Griff isnt the real Aegon.

I tend to agree that the Red Priests are gonna want to get rid of Aegon, but the prophecy Dany is concerned with talks of 3 heads to a dragon, so conceivably Aegon could be fine and still be room for one more.

[Lord Robert]

What if....

"Dark flame" refers to a Blackfire descendant i.e. Aegon (Probably descendant from a female branch of the Blackfires) and The Mummer's Dragon refers to Brown Ben Plum?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

What if....

"Dark flame" refers to a Blackfire descendant i.e. Aegon (Probably descendant from a female branch of the Blackfires) and The Mummer's Dragon refers to Brown Ben Plum?

I think it's pretty clear that "Aegon" is meant to be the Mummer's dragon. But the "dark flame" has a few possibilities. It could be a Blackfyre. It could be Moqorro, who's with Vicarion. The "kraken" and "dark flame" are "paired" together in the prophecy.

[merchantkingpriest]

I personally think the prophecy was thrown off by Tyrion's capture and ability to convince Young Griff to change course. Having said that I feel like we really won't know for sure who Dark Flame and like many other prophecies Dany will be wondering whether it refers to Marwyn or Moqorro. A common theme in the story is that prophecies may be accurate, but also more trouble than they are worth because of the potential for misinterpretations and foolish actions based on those interpretations

[dreamcatcher]

If this is true it immediately makes me think of Jon Snow. "Crow" fits and if he is a Targ, AA, and/or PTWP, as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch he would be a "dark flame."

How so?

I think the "crow and kraken" could just be Euron Greyjoy (the one-eyed crow) sending Victarion (Kraken). But it would be brilliant if Jon went overseas. Finally some interaction! But I doubt it.

[Prince Rhaegar]

How so?

I think the "crow and kraken" could just be Euron Greyjoy (the one-eyed crow) sending Victarion (Kraken). But it would be brilliant if Jon went overseas. Finally some interaction! But I doubt it.

Dark - The Night's Watch have a developed iconography around the color black. (i.e. the black uniforms and "Taking the Black"). Simple? Yes. But applicable nonetheless.

Flame - This has more possible meanings, the simplest of which is that the Night's Watch claims to be "the fire that burns against the cold."

The more presumptive is that Jon is Azor Ahai reborn. Which brings with it a large amount of flame related imagery: Lightbringer, R'hllor and his flames, etc. The last is that if R+L = J is true, Jon is a Targ and therefore a dragon, which brings its own flames with it.

As for the pairing, that part vexes me. If I were to stretch I'd say the Kraken isn't Victarion but Theon/Asha who are soon to be united with, the presumably not dead, Jon Snow.

But I don't think that's it.

Alternatively, Jon Snow could be paired with Victarion in the prophecy because they have both been portrayed as contenders for the AA prophecy.

But I'm not sure that's it either.

[Sevumar]

I think it's pretty clear that "Aegon" is meant to be the Mummer's dragon. But the "dark flame" has a few possibilities. It could be a Blackfyre. It could be Moqorro, who's with Vicarion. The "kraken" and "dark flame" are "paired" together in the prophecy.

See, I'm not all that certain that the mummer's dragon is meant to reference Aegon. It's a tempting association because it's been out there a long time prior to ADWD's release.

What's confusing to me is that it seems to be a double listing in Quaithe's warning (I'm not sure it can properly be considered a "prophecy"). "Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon" is the wording in the book. I'm not saying that this is right, but if we say kraken = Victarion, dark flame = Moqorro, lion = Tyrion, griffin = Griff/YG, sun's son = Quentyn, then that leaves the mummer's dragon without an obvious interpretation.

Each member of this list has its own journey to Daenerys, and sometimes two travel together for a time, but it seems like each item described takes a different path. The lion and griffin travel together for a while, but get separated courtesy of Tyrion's visit to the brothel in Selhorys. Tyrion and Moqorro travel together for a time, but their ship is destroyed and Moqorro ends up with Victarion. However, Connington and Aegon continue traveling together for the duration of the book, ending up in the same place with the same purpose. I don't see why you'd need two elements of Quaithe's list to refer to Connington and Aegon when they're both adequately covered by the griffin image.

That leaves the mummer's dragon as an unknown, but I'm OK with that and curious about what else it could represent.

[imladolen]

Dark Flame = One of the Red Priests or the Mage from the Citadel (I think that it is the slave mark. But, it could represent the dragonglass candle.)

I think Dark Flame refers to the red priest Moqorro that is with Victarion. He has very very dark black skin, and well, he IS a red priest afterall so the flame part is obvious.