[ADwD Spoilers] Winterfell murder mysteries.

[Markus]

No, they definitely only took three - the sword Hodor is using is the one Bran took. He lets Hodor use it from Storm onwards.

They took four swords: Osha, Meera, Bran and Hodor each took one.

The relevant quote is in post #45.

[Arataniello]

Without looking it up, I'm pretty sure that Luwin is dead, BUT we never saw Old Nan die that I can recall. Maybe the old lady was a lot tougher than she looked.

From the final scene in Winterfell before Bran and Rickon go their separate ways, it is clear that Luwin was dying and asked Osha to kill him, rather than he bleed to death. Wild-eyed theories spun out of thin air that he is still alive are, quite frankly, ludicrous.

Old Nan is alive, or was. She is listed in the appendix to aFfC as one of the women of Winterfell held captive at the Dreadfort.

The whole four swords missing vs three swords taken may of course simply be a misstep by GRRM.

[NorthernLights]

For some reason, when he saw the hooded stranger I was wondering if it was Brynden Blackfish. I don't have anything to back that up with, just a feeling. I also like the idea suggested earlier that maybe it was Theon.

[Drowned Mikken]

I don't think it was Manderly, he was already planning to backstab the Freys already. If you're going to betray them in battle, I don't think you're still planning to wed your families together and everything to be cool (Unless you're desperate and stupid like Robb was).

The way that Big Walder hesitates before he says that Little Walder was killed by a Manderly, smells like a falsehood. From Big Walder himself? Doubtful, as Little Walder was his best friend, and I doubt there was anything to make them fight.

Ramsey murdered him? Possible, the wild stabbing seems like his style and maybe it was just to blow of some steamfrom not torturing anyone for such a long time. Though it was noted that Ramsey had taken a liking to Little Walder and he seems pretty neutral to people in his "Bastard's Boys" gang.

From Roose? Probably the most likely. As it casts a shadow on the Manderly's before he intends to send them out to battle, and he's shown a healthy sceptism towards their loyalty. But still, he's sowing discord between his own troops, and that doesn't quite sound like the calm, calculated Roose we've seen in the past.

Frankly... I'm stumped. And probably will stay that way unless we get a POV in Winterfell next book.

[Steel_Wind]

No, they definitely only took three - the sword Hodor is using is the one Bran took. He lets Hodor use it from Storm onwards.

Brady,

Reading just the passage in A Clash of Kings, you would be right. That is what I did when I first read the passage and I got all passionate, believing there was a missing sword and taking this as proof that the murderer was in the crypts and had taken a sword, killed Little Walder near the entrance because he could be recognized, etc..

Nice theory, except that another sword isn't missing.

Problem is, I had been mislead by not reading the first chapter in ASoS. In that chapter, GRRM retcons what happened in the crypts in ACoK and arms Hodor with another sword, an ancient two-handed blade, taken from one of the statues of some nameless King of Winter.

That's why Theon notices there is a blade missing from one of the old Kings whose name he could not remember. That sword should still be there according to the text in ACoK, but the retcon in ASoS makes it true. So, I was wrong.

Moreover, even when there is no additional missing sword, several of the first victims in Winterfell were not killed by a blade in any event. They appear to have been throttled or pushed off the battlements. So the clues which lead me to believe the murderer had been lurking in the crypts was just wrongly conceived.

I think I was just plain wrong because of the damned missing sword (that isn't actually missing) issue.

So, the suspects are:

1 - Theon, experiencing a split personality disorder so that his POV misleads us. Given that he is struggling with his identity, this is entirely possible, and would appear to be even probable. Theon also names himself one of the Ghosts of Winterfell, too.

2 - Some other Stark servant(s) or smallfolk, who had been hiding in the crypts and are taking vengeance on the Boltons for what they did to the Stark smallfolk on their arrival at Winterfell. Perhaps it is those who had brought back the bones of Lady? Perhaps this is the man in the cloak?

3 - Maaster Luwin, who had been hiding in the crypts;

From what we can see, the crypt door had to have been closed by someone, but that's not such a great mystery given the presence of Winterfell "crawling" with squatters when the Boltons got there. Theon tells us that there had been a LOT of squatters in Winterfell when Bolton arrived. Many were probably smallfolk who had escaped the sack of Winterfell or were otherwise loyal to the Starks, or simply came to the castle looking to pick its bones and survive on foodstuffs they could find form its stores.

Bolton hanged those smallfolk who were "truculent" and put the rest to work restoring parts of the castle. After they were done, he hanged all of them, too. (What a complete *bastard* Roose Bolton is).

So it's not that anybody else who might have been hiding in the cypts was not well motivated to kill the Boltons. But with so many crawling over the bones of Winterfell before Bolton got there, I'm MUCH less convinced Maester Luwin would have stayed hidden in the Crypts if he were alive. Seems to me that Luwin, ff he were still alive, would have set these people to work under the guise of acting under the aegis of the Starks and brought a measure of order to Winterfell. Luwin would have put them to work restoring parts of the castel already. But clearly, that had not been done. So this isn't ringing true for me anymore.

So, the more I think of it, the more that Theon (as separate and distinct from Reek) becomes the likely candidate for being the Ghost in Winterfell. Given all that he had been put through, it is not a stretch to see how his broken mind could have acted in such a fashion, hiding its true nature from Ramsay -- and from the reader.

Not all points of view are necessarily reliable. Given the incredible pressure that Theon had been under and the obvious evidence that Theon's mind had snapped when he became Reek, this answer becomes the Occam's Razor to who did most of the killings.

Or the man in the hooded cloak is our killer. *shrug*

[Entice]

Wow, Steel Wind's Maester Luwin serial murderer theory just gave me chills. It seems plausible and creepy at the same time.

Initially, I thought that different people may have been responsible for different murders. Maybe the girls were responsible for the first murder and it went from there, with Big Walder killing Little Walder at the end.

[Datepalm]

Wow, Steel Wind's Maester Luwin serial murderer theory just gave me chills. It seems plausible and creepy at the same time.

Initially, I thought that different people may have been responsible for different murders. Maybe the girls were responsible for the first murder and it went from there, with Big Walder killing Little Walder at the end.

I'm all but certain that this is the case - Mance and co. were responsible for some of the murders, the ones targeting Ramsays close retainers. Someone else was responsible for the general damaging chaos causing - the collapse of the stables and the like, possible the Manderleys, or if he exists, then the ghost, and Walder could be part of that, or the work of a third killer (the Ghost? the other Walder?) since killing him doesn't seem to have any particular utility with regard to anything.

[Elrick]

Or was it Ramsey Bolton? Because he is a sadist mofo and just wanted to kill someone.

I don't think Ramsay or Roose had anything to do with this one. It would have gone against their best interest and my feeling is that Ramsay although completely and utterly evil in my opinion, had reasoning not to do this. I think he wouldn't see the point at the moment and was afraid what his father would do. I think Roose has some control over Ramsay at least for the moment.

[Elrick]

double post

[jurble]

I like the idea it was the Blackfish, not Maester Luwin...

I mean the Maester is like 65+ and a scholar. Problem is the Blackfish would have no knowledge of the Crypts.

Someone needs to ask GRRM asap at a Q&A or ComicCon whether there even is a Ghost.

[MtnLion]

Other possibilities, besides Brynden Tully, include Maege Mormont and Jason Mallister. Both of the latter left the Twins before the Red Wedding to arrange for passage through the Grey Waters with Howland Reed. I am looking forward to their reappearance, personally. I think that there will be great revelations when they do reappear.

[wombat1138]

What I don't get is, when Theon and Lady Dustin went down to the crypts and looked around those tombs, why didn't they notice any sign that six people had spent several weeks living, eating, sleeping, and pooping in that exact area?

[fybonacci]

What would be great is if it's Osha and Rickon who are hiding in the crypts, and Davos has to get them out of occupied territory. Where is Rickon anyway?

[Ser Bullitin The Board]

Theon needs a watch.

As the garrison broke it's fast on stale bread fried in bacon grease (the lords and knights ate the bacon), the talk along the benches was of little but the corpse.

"Stannis has friends inside the castle." Theon heard one serjeant mutter. He was an old Tallheart man, three trees sewn on his ragged surcoat. The watch had just changed. Men were coming in from the cold, stomping their feet to knock the snow off their boots and breeches as the midday meal was served-blood sausage, leeks, and brown bread still warm from the oven.

What the hell time is it?

Just saying, might be something, might be nothing.

[Frisco]

What I don't get is, when Theon and Lady Dustin went down to the crypts and looked around those tombs, why didn't they notice any sign that six people had spent several weeks living, eating, sleeping, and pooping in that exact area?

Maybe Lady Dustin did and just didn't mention it to Theon, who is pretty whacked out of his skull since being, you know, flayed. :P Just because it wasn't written in one person's point of view doesn't mean it didn't happen, just like Hodor's sword.

No, they definitely only took three - the sword Hodor is using is the one Bran took. He lets Hodor use it from Storm onwards.

Check again in the first Bran chapter in ASoS. It just wasn't mentioned in ACoK.

[Jeejee]

The way that Big Walder hesitates before he says that Little Walder was killed by a Manderly, smells like a falsehood. From Big Walder himself? Doubtful, as Little Walder was his best friend, and I doubt there was anything to make them fight.

Are they best friends? I never got that impression. Big Walder did seem to be lying, but that could be him choosing to cast suspicion on an obvious choice.

[PestilencE]

Theon needs a watch.

As the garrison broke it's fast on stale bread fried in bacon grease (the lords and knights ate the bacon), the talk along the benches was of little but the corpse.

"Stannis has friends inside the castle." Theon heard one serjeant mutter. He was an old Tallheart man, three trees sewn on his ragged surcoat. The watch had just changed. Men were coming in from the cold, stomping their feet to knock the snow off their boots and breeches as the midday meal was served-blood sausage, leeks, and brown bread still warm from the oven.

What the hell time is it?

Just saying, might be something, might be nothing.

lol, that's actually pretty damn interesting!

But unfortunately, probably just a blunder by grrm :[

[nategator]

Looney theory: it's Howland Reed

He has to show up sometime and really, really liked the Starks. He could have been delivering Ned's bones to the crypt when the Boltons occupied. Also, wouldn't he want to find out if his kids were dead or alive?

Also, he would have checked the crypts, seen that his kids, Bran, and Rickon had survived from past use, and then cleaned the evidence while waiting for his shot to take out the Boltons.

[nategator]

What would be great is if it's Osha and Rickon who are hiding in the crypts, and Davos has to get them out of occupied territory. Where is Rickon anyway?

Rickon is in Skagos.

Manderly would not have needed a smuggler to get to the crypts, he could have just waddled down there himself after his hot pie dinner.

[Sand Viper]

The figure Theon saw was the Braavosi banker. He was travelling all over the North conspiring against the Iron Throne's local vassals. I reckon he was at Winterfell to scout out and conspire. His bizarre hat looked like a cloak in the snowstorm.

There's also this strange parallel in the texts just after Jon sees the banker leave and after Theon sees the figure leave:

Jon POV

"Across the yard the King's Tower had turned into a hulking shadow, the lights in its windows obscured by falling snow."

Theon POV

"Of the outer wall, nothing remained but a vague shadow and a few dim lights floating in the dark"

Coincidence, or hint?????

If a hint, this could be a whole new mine of information in ASOIAF - look for parallels in the text to identify characters...