[ADwD Spoilers] Varys

[Kolwynia]

I guess the question is, if Aegon were to die, would Varys support Dany? I'm not sure, since she's a little too close to Magic with her blood spells and dragons. I don't think he is trying to put a Targ on the throne out of some loyalty to the dynasty, but because he believes that Aegon has been groomed to be the kind of leader that he thinks would bring lasting peace to the realm.

[Lord Varys]

The Blackfyre theory for Varys's heritage makes little sense. We know that Varys was born a slave in Lys, and I'm sure Pycelle did not lie about that story in AGoT. Varys being the castrated son of Maelys's little sister would not be that convincing. If there is still a Blackfyre from the female line out there, I'd bet on Illyrio, not on Varys.

Varys might actually be related to the main branch of House Targaryen (through Aerion's/Daeron's descendants, or through one of Egg's children), and Illyrio's heritage could be the reason why Varys allied himself with him - maybe even Illyrio himself has no clue about that. He admits to Tyrion, that he has no idea why Varys chose him as his protector instead of another bravo.

The death of Kevan did not cause the coming war, by the way. It ensures that Tommen's side is not like to win it, though. Kevan would have been forced to fight a war - against Connington and Aegon, against Euron, against Stannis (if he is still alive), possibly against Dorne.

Kevan as Regent could have been able to save Tommen's throne in the end. With him out of the way, that's not going to happen. And I agree on that.

[Michael Jon Snow]

I completely agree that Pycelle believes that Varys was born a Slave in Lys. That might be the official story, or it might be something Pycelle is mistaken about. Heck it might even be true. We do know that at some point as a young man Varys was a slave.

But that doesn't prove he isn't Targaryen. Tyrion and Joreah both end up as slaves.

[Lugez]

My only question is this: If he was "grooming Aegon for rule," then what was the point of Viserys and Dany? Viserys gets himself killed, ok fine. Then Dany hatches some dragons, so its reasonable for her to take the throne.

If Aegon was meant to be the king from the beginning, why wed Dany to Drogo? Could someone make this clear to me?

[Ouroboros]

My only question is this: If he was "grooming Aegon for rule," then what was the point of Viserys and Dany? Viserys gets himself killed, ok fine. Then Dany hatches some dragons, so its reasonable for her to take the throne.

If Aegon was meant to be the king from the beginning, why wed Dany to Drogo? Could someone make this clear to me?

The Golden Company were expecting Dany to support Aegon with Drogo's khalasar. More troops for the war seems to be the reason.

[Pipsmom]

If Varys is a Targaryen, are there any missing true born Targs that we know of? Would a bastard born Targ have this much loyalty to the line? The possibilities for half-Targs are endless. Varys seems to be the only person who knows all the secrets of the passageways and secret hiding places in the Red Keep, even ones only a small child can access. This suggests to me that he either has warging skills to explore in a smaller body, or spent time as a child exploring them.

[JalenTigh]

I must admit, it is getting quite confusing on what his motives and plans are. And don't forget Littlefinger... Just how closely are those two working together?

[Bumble Bee]

Kevan was definitely the best the kingdoms could hope from the Lannisters. He was decent, sincere and intelligent. Varys claims to care about the realm but is willing to make it suffer and bleed to achieve his goals. In that way he is just as bad or worse than the people he hates and all the education in the world cannot prepare Aegon for rule and will not necessarily make him a good ruler. I am not convinced that the kid is Aegon.

[Skadhi]

I must admit, it is getting quite confusing on what his motives and plans are. And don't forget Littlefinger... Just how closely are those two working together?

I don't think they are working together. Varys tells Illyrio flat out in AGOT that he has no idea what game LF is playing. LF is out for himself and no one else.

If it came down to it, Varys would squish LF like a bug.

[David Selig]

I hope Varys doesn't really belive his BS about Aegon which he told Kevan at the end. Aegon is certain to be a better king because he was taught well and had spent time among the commoners? Such a naive view. There are countless examples of poor leaders who have taught and trained for their role as well as possible but failed.

[chris.t.]

Illyrio tells Tyrion that Aerys retains Varys because he was so paranoid that he didn't trust his own son.

According to Selmy, the paranoia didn't set in until after Duskendale. Also according to Selmy, Varys convinced Aerys that the tournament at Harrenhall was a meeting of rebellious lords.

While Selmy and Illyrio could be wrong (or lying in Illyrio's case) about the hows or whys, I'm pretty sure they're right about the chronology of things. Thus, I think we can be pretty sure Varys joined the King's household between Duskendale and Harrenhall.

This chronology makes me speculate on what role Varys had in Aerys' downfall. Did he try to stop it or did he quicken it?

It could be that Varys was quite a bit less effective early in his time serving Aerys because he was far less familiar with Westeros.

Or it could be that Varys intentionally played a part is Aerys' downfall. That brings to mind Illyrio's explanation of his and Varys' activities in Pentos prior to Illyrio going to Westeros...

They'd steal stolen property from thieves and then sell it back to its rightful owners, leaving both the thieves and their victims coming to Illyrio and Varys for help.

Now, who do you think Varys thinks is the thief and who do you think he thinks is the victim?

[Tourmaline Dragon]

My only question is this: If he was "grooming Aegon for rule," then what was the point of Viserys and Dany? Viserys gets himself killed, ok fine. Then Dany hatches some dragons, so its reasonable for her to take the throne.

If Aegon was meant to be the king from the beginning, why wed Dany to Drogo? Could someone make this clear to me?

Maybe originally Dany was Plan C or even Plan D. Dany was expendable because she was timid and female and a good distraction from the well hidden blue haired Aegon. Aegon I think was always Plan A+ because he has been groomed from birth. Viserys was Plan B back in the day when Ned was alive. Maybe they wanted him to pave the way for Aegon.

I think Aegon is still Plan A, especially now that he has landed in Westeros, but now he is perhaps Plan A - .

Dany has the 3 dragons so I’d say she is now Plan B +. Or perhaps it’s the other way around - who knows with Varys.

I think Varys has been juggling a few Targaryen balls in the air to cover all eventualities. There is no way he’d have relied on just one Targ all these years, there is too much unpredictability.

[chris.t.]

I think Doran might be surprised to find out that Viserys wasn't "plan A."

[Faelar006]

yeah, he was the most decent of all of the lannisters.

Please forgive the minor deviation from the topic, but Ser Kevan most definitely was not the most decent of all the Lannisters. In aGoT, he is portrayed as nothing more than Tywin's yes-man, and indeed, when Tywin orders Ser Kevan to release Ser Gregor's and Ser Amory's reavers, Kevan immediately goes to give the orders, with nary a peep of disagreement.

Regarding the topic at hand, I'm going to have to agree with the camp that sees no logical reason for Varys to kill Kevan in aDwD, if we assume that Varys' last conversation with Ned is an accurate portrayal of himself. If he only wants peace in the realm, then throwing his lot in with Dany/Aegon-Young Griff seems to be the least likely way to achieve peace. And doing the dirty work himself seemed out of character as well.

[kg1982]

Maybe originally Dany was Plan C or even Plan D. Dany was expendable because she was timid and female and a good distraction from the well hidden blue haired Aegon. Aegon I think was always Plan A+ because he has been groomed from birth. Viserys was Plan B back in the day when Ned was alive. Maybe they wanted him to pave the way for Aegon.

I think that Viserys and Dany were supposed to come in with the Dothraki and burn and pillage in Westros. The resulting war as well as the fact that the Wolves and Lions were at each others was supposed to pave the way for Aegon to come in and rescue everyone.

Of course, Varys is arguing that he wants fakeAegon (who I think is Illyrio's son) to come in because he got the classic King Arthur education. However, I think there is something else going on there.

[reiver]

I think that Viserys and Dany were supposed to come in with the Dothraki and burn and pillage in Westros. The resulting war as well as the fact that the Wolves and Lions were at each others was supposed to pave the way for Aegon to come in and rescue everyone.

That's my rationale as well. Viserys and Dany take all the heat from Robert and are thought of by the world as the Targaryen heirs which at least keeps the targaryen line "alive" in the minds of the people of Westeros. That way Aegon can develop in peace and the notion of a targaryen heir doesn't just appear from nowhere. The idea of invading with dothraki always seemed a surefire way to unite the realm against them, their savagery plus their rapey slaving ways would put even Tywin's dogs to shame.

Of course this just adds to Varys ruthlessness. I don't for a second believe he works for the good of the realm and i'm not sure he works for the Targs either since he seems to stir trouble and destabilize during all the regimes he served under.

Robert's reign wasn't that prosperous. Peaceful yes, but Littlefinger was bankrupting the realm through shady business practices and Robert through wasteful spending.

Was he though? He was leading the realm towards a different economic system and perhaps a shift in the power status quo with his investment methods spreading wealth and enterprise leading to the creation of a large middleclass but i'm not sure he was bankrupting the realm. Instead it was Robert's open handed nature and extravagance that was. Robert has always had strong parallels with Henry VIII and in this he's no different. While he doesn't seem to have built 50 palaces he is attributed with beggaring the realm in GoT. I've always got that LF was dodgy but never that he was doing his job poorly.

[Jon Connington's Return]

I think Varys for sure believes that he is acting in the greater good of the realm. He is dreaming of putting together an unbroken dynasty of Targaryens that will rule unchallenged, thus ending wars and poverty and famine in the future. We are looking at it within the context of the present, or even the near future, but for Varys if thousands die today or tomorrow, that's a small price to pay for a future free of strife with a Targaryen ruler. His scope is much bigger than the next 50 years. This is why he kills Kevan, even though the chaos that will ensue might seem like it's going against his proclaimed aims of "for the realm."

I'm not saying that his actions are in actuality contributing to the greater good of the realm, since that's obviously up for debate. I think he truly believes he is though.

Another thought is why do we take anything about Varys at face value? We know he is a master of disguise, having seen him transform into apparently a woman as well as a grizzled footman at will at different points during the series. It would make sense that he has woven lies about himself, such as being born in Lys or even being a eunuch. After all, people seem to naturally despise and perhaps underestimate him for being a eunuch. This could be what he wants; there is no proof at all in the series that he actually is a eunuch. I don't know if he is a Targaryen or a Blackfyre or anything, but certainly those theories cannot be ruled out.

[Tourmaline Dragon]

I think that Viserys and Dany were supposed to come in with the Dothraki and burn and pillage in Westros. The resulting war as well as the fact that the Wolves and Lions were at each others was supposed to pave the way for Aegon to come in and rescue everyone.

Well after reading ADWD I wouldn’t doubt that at all.

Up to this point I thought in simple terms i.e. that both Viserys and Dany were so very precious to Varys and Illyrio – they were Targaryens after all!.......but maybe they were in fact just an afterthought, a bluff, a rouse from the moment they fled Dragonstone. Maybe both Dany and Viserys were always considered expendable.

I think Dany must have been regarded as inconsequential at first since it seemed almost inevitable that she would not be able to withstand the Dothraki life. But on the other hand why she was gifted the 3 dragons eggs? This is a still a mystery to me. Surely Aegon as the nurtured well rounded Targaryen kid should have been given them?

As Ser Jorah said, if Illyrio new the dragons eggs would hatch he would have sat on the eggs himself. But even un-hatched they were worth loads of $$$$$$$$$$$. So Varys and Illyrio must have written Dany and the dud eggs off or considered her some sort of risky roll of the dice that’s more likely than not to come up as a failure. I’m sure if Dany had kicked the bucket in the Dothraki Sea the dragons eggs would have found their way back to Illyrio and thence to Aegon (remember Jorah wanted Dany to take the eggs with them when he wanted her to leave with him?).

Even if Aegon ascends to the throne I think Varys still would want to be in control of the behind the scenes machinations in the realm or whatever. Thus far Dany has proved herself headstrong and very unpredictable. That may not fit into his plans. He may want her to come to Westeros with her army and dragons but he may ultimately want her dead.

[Mr.Blonde]

One thing about the "Varys serves the realm" issue that I have always wondered about:is "the realm" only Westeross,and if so,why?The whole affair of putting a Targaryen on the throne only adresses Westeros problems.If I'm not mistaken,Westeros is actually the smallest continent in the ASOIAF universe.The continent across the Narrow Sea(Essos?) is significantly larger,and with the Free Cities constantly at war with eachother and the dothraki raping and pillaging their way across the whole continent,things are hardly roses.

After all,Varys himself is from the Free Cities,and I'm assuming spent the better part of his life there,it makes no sense that he should care so little about them.

So either he runs a deeper,more noble game than simply putting the Targaryens on the Iron Throne,perhaps establishing a new form of government or ideology across the world(democracy,meritocracy??),or like others speculated,he has Targaryen blood himself and is simply looking out for numero uno.

[Amy Anderson Donschikowski]

Greatjon Umber explained it before proclaiming the King in the North:

There were seven independent kingdoms for the thousands of years since the Andal invasion, with kingdoms of the First Men going back further than that. They likely fought continually, making and breaking alliances, dynasties rising and falling, but none ever conquered the others. The Targaryeans came from outside and climbed on top of the feudal hierarchy. Just another liege to bend the knee to. But the seven recognized them, because they soundly beat all of them (yes, Dorne too, eventually), and more importantly, they were not one of the seven. The seven remained equal, but recognized another as overlord.

Without the Targaryeans, the options are only independence, or constant war. The seven will not tolerate one of their own ruling the others, not forever. The Targaryeans ruled for almost 300 years. The next house for only 17, and then an immediate succession war. Not just a dynastic conflict, but an all-out, continent-wide civil war. One of the great houses has been nearly destroyed, one stripped of its titie, four have had their heads murdered and many others killed, and the las two are bloodied, with the latest alliances chilly at best. What is the greater number, five, or one? And winter is coming.

I agree 100%. I am no fan of any of the "known" Targaryeans (Dany and her constant "I am the dragon" crap and YG with his childish temper tantrum over the cyvasse game). In fact, I dislike anyone who thinks s/he has a "right" to the throne. Which is why I desperately hope Jon is a Targ. But yes, far too much infighting and old bad blood between so many houses, great and small, to allow one of them to rule westeros peacefully. A Targ seems the most peaceful possibility, I just hope it's not Dany or YG.